Last Week: 1-5-1
Overall 48-42-1
Utah State +6 San Diego State
Utah State's over/under win total entering the 2021 season was three. The Aggies tripled that meager projection and are in the Mountain West Championship Game for the first time since the very first one played back in 2013. San Diego State had slightly higher expectations (6.5 was their over/under win total), but their presence in the title game for the first time since 2016 is also a bit surprising. Perhaps the most interesting thing about this game is that despite their 13 combined Mountain West victories, neither team dominated the competition. Utah State finished dead even in terms of Net YPP in conference play, while San Diego State outgained their Mountain West foes by exactly .01 yards per play! Both teams won all their one-score conference games (combined 8-0) and had positive turnover differentials (combined +9 in conference play). They also beat three Pac-12 teams between, including one that may play in the Rose Bowl. San Diego State is a defense (and punting) first team with a bad offense, so it is hard for them to get margin, even against the dregs of FBS. And while their defense is the strength of the team, the better passing offenses on the schedule have been able to move the ball against them. Fresno State, Nevada, and UNLV all threw for more than 300 yards and averaged north of seven yards per pass against their secondary. Utah State quarterback Logan Bonner, who followed Blake Anderson from Arkansas State, is good enough to make some plays against the San Diego State defense. It may not be enough to win, but it should be enough to cover.
Louisiana-Lafayette +3 Appalachian State
Since an opening loss at the hands of Texas, the Ragin' Cajuns have won eleven straight. Included in that eleven game winning streak was a home victory against their opponent in this game. Louisiana-Lafayette laid the proverbial wood to the Mountaineers, blasting them 41-13. The loss was the largest for Appalachian State since Miami pounded them 45-10 in Boone in 2016 and their largest ever to a Sun Belt opponent. Somehow, two months later at the scene of the crime, the Mountaineers are field goal favorites. Perhaps that is due somewhat to the departure of head coach Billy Napier, who was recently hired to coach the Florida Gators. Napier is sticking around to coach this game, hoping to emulate Scott Frost (at least somewhat) who coached the NY6 Bowl at UCF after being named the head coach at Nebraska. While both the Mountaineers and Ragin' Cajuns are known more for their offensive prowess, they are the two best per play defenses in the Sun Belt with both allowing under five yards per play in conference action. Louisiana-Lafayette has been a home underdog on two occasions under Billy Napier and they have won and covered both games. That's a very small sample size, but it speaks to the unique circumstances surrounding this game. I expected the Ragin' Cajuns to be favored and to have no opinion on this game. Since they are catching a field goal, they are the team to back.
Houston +10.5 Cincinnati
After seven years of excluding the little guy, the College Football Playoff Selection Committee may be forced to include a Group of Five team in their bougie playoff. Cincinnati is currently ranked fourth by the committee and if the season ended today, which it does not, would be in the College Football Playoff. While that is a once in a lifetime opportunity, it could also make a team play a little tight. I haven't done any full fledged research on the issue (perhaps an offeason topic), but anecdotally, Kansas State and their 1998 Big 12 Championship Game loss to Texas A&M sticks out in my memory. The Wildcats were on the verge of going from the worst major conference program to playing for a national title in a decade until a fourth quarter collapse relegated them to the Alamo Bowl. Once again, this is entirely anecdotal, but it makes sense that a team with little history of competing for national titles might struggle when they are on the door step of something historic, especially when they are facing a pretty good opponent. And rest assured, Houston is easily the second best team in the AAC. The Cougars have not lost since their perplexing collapse against Texas Tech in the opener, with eight of their eleven victories coming by double digits. In addition, should they manage to pull off the upset, Houston would probably be the highest ranked Group of Five team and play their way into a NY6 bowl. Since this spread is more than a touchdown, Houston is a good play.
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