2021 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: Conference USA

Two weeks ago we looked at how Conference USA teams fared in terms of yards per play. his week, we turn our attention to how the season played out in terms of the Adjusted Pythagorean Record, or APR. For an in-depth look at APR, click here. If you didn’t feel like clicking, here is the Reader’s Digest version. APR looks at how well a team scores and prevents touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns, field goals, extra points, and safeties are excluded. The ratio of offensive touchdowns to touchdowns allowed is converted into a winning percentage. Pretty simple actually.

Once again, here are the 2021 Conference USA standings. 

And here are the APR standings with conference rank in offensive touchdowns, touchdowns allowed, and APR in parentheses. This includes conference games only with the championship game excluded.

Finally, Conference USA teams are sorted by the difference between their actual number of wins and their expected number of wins according to APR. 

I use a game and a half as a somewhat arbitrary line of demarcation to determine whether or not a team's record differed significantly from their APR. By that standard, UTSA was the only team that saw their expected record differ significantly from their APR. The Roadrunners also exceeded their expected record based on YPP and we went over a few reasons for that last week. 

Conference USA Gets No Regard

Conference USA is dying. If you have been paying attention to the latest round of realignment that statement should not surprise you. Conference USA had 14 football playing members in 2021. Six are leaving for the AAC (Charlotte, FAU, North Texas, Rice, UAB, and UTSA) and three are trying to join the Sun Belt in time for this football season (Marshall, Old Dominion, and Southern Miss). I'm not a lawyer, so I won't make a prediction on whether that trio has to return for a lame duck campaign in Conference USA, but it certainly appears the ship is sinking. Conference USA did respond by admitting four schools that have been FBS nomads (New Mexico State), FBS pariahs (Liberty), and FCS powers (Jacksonville State and Sam Houston State), but the league is not on strong footing. The nine teams that are 'committed' to Conference USA football for the immediate future are located in eight different states. While the league does boast two true rivalries (New Mexico State/UTEP and Middle Tennessee/Western Kentucky), for the most part, these are nine teams that are stuck together because no one else would have them. The mass exodus, coupled with the relatively underwhelming additions means Conference USA will likely be the worst Group of Five conference year in and year out (assuming it survives). This is bad for the members that inevitably have good seasons  in the coming years.  

I think it would be fair to say the (liberal) media did not respect Conference USA in 2021. Remember, UTSA did not end the 2021 with a ranked finish in the AP Poll despite starting 11-0, beating a Power Five team on the road, and finishing 12-2. How can we gauge the media's respect for a conference? One shorthand for respect is preseason rankings. If a Group of Five conference can place a team in the preseason AP Poll, its fair to say that conference (or at least that team) has garnered the media's respect. In the BCS and College Football Playoff era (since 1998), seven conferences have existed outside the power structure of the major conferences. The five that are currently in existence (AAC, CUSA, MAC, Mountain West, and Sun Belt) and two that have departed from this mortal coil (Big West and WAC). How have they done in terms of getting their members ranked in the preseason AP Poll? Glad you asked. 

Unfortunately, the Big West never had a team ranked in the preseason AP Poll. However, the media respected the WAC despite their East Coast bias.

I was surprised that Boise was only in the preseason AP Poll four times before leaving the WAC after the 2010 season. I was also surprised they only accounted for half of the WAC's preseason ranked teams. 

We have covered the defunct conferences, so now we'll take a look at the current Group of Five, starting with the subject of this post, Conference USA.

The total number of teams ranked in the preseason AP Poll is not bad, but the length of time between rankings shows you how much the landscape of college football has changed. Conference USA has not had a team ranked in the preseason poll in nearly 20 years and the last two teams to be ranked in the preseason are now in the Big 12 (TCU) and ACC (Louisville) respectively. 

Conference USA is probably the worst and least respected Group of Five league. The only one that can give it a run for its money is the MAC.

Its been 20 years since the MAC placed a team in the preseason AP Poll and that team is not only a former member of the MAC, but a soon to be former member of Conference USA. Their new home, as previously mentioned, is the Sun Belt.

It took two decades, but the Sun Belt finally placed a team in the preseason AP Poll in 2021. And they did it twice. Until very recently, the Sun Belt was typically the weakest Group of Five conference, but thanks to a shrewd expansion strategy that prioritized geography and legitimate rivalries, they could end up as the top Group of Five conference, especially with the attrition at the top of the AAC.

FYI, in 2013, the AAC retained the Big East's automatic qualifier status for a BCS bowl game, but I still think it makes sense to include it here. The AAC has had a team ranked in the preseason AP Poll for six consecutive seasons and will likely make it seven once the poll comes out this summer. 

And finally, we come to the Group of Five conference that has produced the most preseason AP ranked teams, the Mountain West. 

Before I touch on the obvious, take a moment to appreciate how respected the Colorado State program was in the late 90's and early aughts. The Rams were ranked in the preseason AP Poll in 1998 (as members of the WAC) and again in 2001 and 2003 as members of the Mountain West. While the Mountain West technically has the most instances of Group of Five teams being ranked in the preseason AP Poll, note that nine of those 16 rankings were compiled by teams that currently are, or will soon be in Power Five conferences (BYU, TCU, and Utah). 

They say respect is not given, but earned. If that is indeed the case, Conference USA has a lot of work to do to get back in the national conscience. A special season at UTSA barely registered on the national radar. With the Roadrunners and a host of others leaving the league, Conference USA is poised to become the forgotten FBS conference.