2022 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: AAC

Last week we looked at how AAC teams fared in terms of yards per play. his week, we turn our attention to how the season played out in terms of the Adjusted Pythagorean Record, or APR. For an in-depth look at APR, click here. If you didn’t feel like clicking, here is the Reader’s Digest version. APR looks at how well a team scores and prevents touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns, field goals, extra points, and safeties are excluded. The ratio of offensive touchdowns to touchdowns allowed is converted into a winning percentage. Pretty simple actually. 

Once again, here are the 2022 AAC standings.

And here are the APR standings with conference rank in offensive touchdowns, touchdowns allowed, and APR in parentheses. This includes conference games only with the championship game excluded.

Finally, AAC teams are sorted by the difference between their actual number of wins and their expected number of wins according to APR.

Cincinnati won two more games than we would have expected based on the number of touchdowns they scored and allowed in league play. The Bearcats were involved in a lot of close games, and while their 3-2 record in such AAC contests was not extraordinary, they failed to dominate their conference foes as they had in the past. Three of their six conference victories came by at least ten points, but none by more than twenty. In 2020 and 2021, Cincinnati won eleven conference games by at least nineteen points. Meanwhile Memphis and South Florida won significantly fewer games based on their respective touchdowns scored and allowed. Memphis and South Florida also underachieved relative to their YPP numbers and we went into some reasons for that last. 

The End of an Era

Between Cincinnati's loss to Tulane in their regular season finale and their rivalry renewal with Louisville in Fenway Park, Luke Fickell accepted the Wisconsin job. The Fickell era at Cincinnati was an unquestioned success. In Fickell's six seasons, the Bearcats won two conference titles, appeared in three league championship games, and became the first Group of Five team to qualify for the College Football Playoff. Each an impressive accomplishment. However, if the Bearcats had been able to beat Tulane or knock off Louisville in their bowl, they would have added one final feather to Fickell's cap. Had the Bearcats finished ranked in the final AP Poll, they would would have tied Boise State for the most consecutive ranked finishes among non-BCS/Group of Five teams in the BCS and Playoff eras.

Since 1998, five mid-major schools have finished ranked for at least three consecutive season (Boise State, BYU, Cincinnati, TCU, and UCF). Once the 2023 college football season kicks off, only one will remain in the mid-major ranks, as BYU, Cincinnati, and UCF are set to join TCU in the Big 12. Three mid-major schools finished ranked in 2022 (Tulane, Troy, and Fresno State), but neither finished ranked in 2021, so Boise's run from 2008-2012 will remain the gold standard until at least the latter part of this decade.