Thursday, May 25, 2023

2022 Yards Per Play: Sun Belt

I know it doesn't seem possible, but somehow we have arrived at our last conference recap. This week we focus on the Sun Belt. 

Here are the 2022 Sun Belt standings.
So we know what each team achieved, but how did they perform? To answer that, here are the Yards Per Play (YPP), Yards Per Play Allowed (YPA) and Net Yards Per Play (Net) numbers for each Sun Belt team. This includes conference play only, with the championship game not included. The teams are sorted by division by Net YPP with conference rank in parentheses.
College football teams play either eight or nine conference games. Consequently, their record in such a small sample may not be indicative of their quality of play. A few fortuitous bounces here or there can be the difference between another ho-hum campaign or a special season. Randomness and other factors outside of our perception play a role in determining the standings. It would be fantastic if college football teams played 100 or even 1000 games. Then we could have a better idea about which teams were really the best. Alas, players would miss too much class time, their bodies would be battered beyond recognition, and I would never leave the couch. As it is, we have to make do with the handful of games teams do play. In those games, we can learn a lot from a team’s YPP. Since 2005, I have collected YPP data for every conference. I use conference games only because teams play such divergent non-conference schedules and the teams within a conference tend to be of similar quality. By running a regression analysis between a team’s Net YPP (the difference between their Yards Per Play and Yards Per Play Allowed) and their conference winning percentage, we can see if Net YPP is a decent predictor of a team’s record. Spoiler alert. It is. For the statistically inclined, the correlation coefficient between a team’s Net YPP in conference play and their conference record is around .66. Since Net YPP is a solid predictor of a team’s conference record, we can use it to identify which teams had a significant disparity between their conference record as predicted by Net YPP and their actual conference record. I used a difference of .200 between predicted and actual winning percentage as the threshold for ‘significant’. Why .200? It is a little arbitrary, but .200 corresponds to a difference of 1.6 games over an eight game conference schedule and 1.8 games over a nine game one. Over or under-performing by more than a game and a half in a small sample seems significant to me. In the 2022 season, which teams in the Sun Belt met this threshold? Here are Sun Belt teams sorted by performance over what would be expected from their Net YPP numbers.
Appalachian State and Old Dominion underachieved relative to their YPP numbers while Coastal Carolina and South Alabama overachieved. For three of the four teams, close game results tells the story. Appalachian State, the preeminent Sun Belt program since their arrival in 2014, finished 1-4 in one-score conference games. In the process, they finished with the first losing conference record as an FBS team. However, their one close Sun Belt victory was quite memorable. On the flip side, Coastal Carolina finished 4-0 in one-score conference games while South Alabama was 5-1 in such contests. The reasons for Old Dominion's underachievement are a little less clear. The Monarchs were 1-2 in one-score conference games and had a negative in-conference turnover margin (-2), but the I believe the biggest reason for their underachievement was fourth down variance. In Sun Belt play, the Monarchs attempted fifteen fourth down conversions. They were only successful four times. Meanwhile, their opponents had twenty fourth down attempts, of which they converted thirteen (65%). Those extra possessions cost the Monarchs dearly in their six game skid to close the season. 

The Coach or The Quarterback?
For a coach in his mid-forties, Jamey Chadwell has been around the block. The former Coastal Carolina head coach is now at Liberty which is his fifth head coaching stop. Chadwell was successful at three of his previous four stops, making the Division II playoffs at North Greenville, the FCS playoffs at Charleston Southern, and winning two division titles at Coastal. We'll give him an 'Incomplete' for his one year stint at Delta State. His stint at Coastal introduced him to a national audience as his triple-option variant offense helped the Chanticleers solidify themselves as contenders in the Sun Belt. And while Coastal Carolina has been fantastic over the past three seasons, I would make the argument a certain quarterback deserves more credit then Chadwell. 

Chadwell's head coaching career at Coastal was a bit wonky. He left Charleston Southern to become the offensive coordinator at Coastal in January of 2017. In July of that year, he was named interim head coach when Joe Moglia took a medical leave of absence. Moglia returned to coach the team in 2018 and Chadwell resumed his duties as offensive coordinator. Moglia stepped down after the 2018 season and Chadwell became the full-time head coach. In all, Chadwell was was the head coach at Coastal Carolina for five seasons (2017, 2019-2022) and on staff for six. 

Coastal was known for being coached by a former CEO of TD Ameritrade, but other than that, they toiled in FBS obscurity until Grayson McCall came along. McCall threw four passes as a true freshman in 2019, but was the starting quarterback heading into the wild and extemporaneous 2020 season. His first start for the Chanticleers came in a road win against a Power Five team (granted, it was Kansas) and he never really slowed down from there. If McCall had played 35 years ago, the college football media would have had a great opportunity to christen him with a nickname related to the hero of a contemporary spy thriller (I know the show has been rebooted, but does anyone watch?). But I digress. If you look at the numbers, as we are want to do around here, you'll see that Chadwell has not done much (at the FBS level) without McCall running his system.

This analysis is going to focus on the years that Chadwell was at Coastal as head coach and ignore his one season as offensive coordinator (2018). I wanted to get a clear picture of how Chadwell's offenses performed when he was fully in charge of the team. Check the stats from 2018 and you'll see we are probably doing him a solid by ignoring that campaign for what its worth. Anyway, I am going to compare Coastal's offensive performance against Sun Belt opponents with and without McCall. The results may surprise you. 

We'll begin with one of the standard numbers we like to use around here: Yards Per Play. Coastal played two full seasons of Sun Belt action without McCall in 2017 and 2019. He has been around for the past three seasons, missing five total games (one in 2020 and two apiece in 2021 and 2022). Here is how Coastal has fared with and without McCall in that span in each individual season and cumulatively against Sun Belt opponents in the regular season. 
Coastal's offense has been more than a yard and a half better with McCall under center (or in the shotgun) versus without him. Even with the offense declining somewhat in 2022 with the loss of playmakers like Isaiah Likely, McCall has kept the among the best in the Sun Belt. For comparison's sake, Coastal's per play offensive numbers with McCall would have ranked third in the Sun Belt in 2022 (behind James Madison and Appalachian State), while their numbers without McCall would have ranked thirteenth (just ahead of Arkansas State). 

Yards are nice, but points are what win games. Using the same parameters as before, here is how Coastal's raw point totals have varied with and without McCall. 
The Chanticleers have averaged nearly twelve additional points per game with McCall than without him. The difference was especially pronounced in 2022, with the team nearly doubling their points per game with McCall. 

Finally, to quote notable talking head and hypocrite, Herm Edwards, you play to win the game. Here is how the Chanticleers have performed in wins and losses with and without McCall. 
The Chanticleers have dropped two (regular season) games with McCall at the helm. On the road in a weeknight thriller at Appalachian State in 2021 and a peculiar home blowout to Old Dominion in 2022. I know Troy fans may be miffed at me leaving out the 2022 Sun Belt Championship Game, but again we are looking at regular season games only.  

What are we to make of this? I'm not predicting Chadwell will fail spectacularly at Liberty, but I can unequivocally say that Chadwell has not been successful at the FBS level without Grayson McCall running his offense. The Flames are positioned on paper to lord over (see what I did there?) the new look Conference USA, but I would temper my expectations. 

Got a problem? Odds against you? Call The Equalizer: 212-555-4200

No comments: