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Last Week: 3-4
Overall: 3-4
Iowa +2.5 Iowa State
Matt Campbell has failed at two things at Iowa State: winning a conference title and beating Iowa in Ames. The Cyclones are just 2-6 straight up against Iowa under Campbell and are 0-4 at home. Three of the four losses have come by a touchdown or less and this low number gives you the impression we are in for another tight battle on Saturday. The Cyclones have already banked two wins, edging Kansas State in Ireland and pounding South Dakota in a rough travel spot last week. The Kansas State win lost a little shine when the Wildcats were nearly upset at home by North Dakota and a closer examination of that box score on the Emerald Isle shows some warts. Iowa State was outgained by the Wildcats in both total yardage (383-313) and yards per play (6.72-4.23). Meanwhile Iowa did not exactly cover themselves in glory in a tune up against Albany last week. The final margin (34-7) looked like a typical workmanlike victory the Hawkeye faithful have come to expect under Kirk Ferentz, but transfer quarterback Mark Gronowski completed just north of half his throws and the Hawkeyes passed for less than fifty yards. I thought Gronowski might give the Hawkeyes some CFP upside and be their best quarterback since Brad Banks nearly a quarter century ago. Needless to say, his first outing did not inspire a great deal of confidence. Still, Iowa has beaten Iowa State with worst offenses and Iowa State has not won this rivalry at home since 2011. Take the Hawkeyes to win a low scoring battle and drop Iowa State from the ranks of the unbeaten.
Duke +2.5 Illinois
The Illini won ten games last season and opened 2025 ranked twelfth in the preseason AP Poll. However, like Stephan Jenkins, they were living a semi-charmed life. Including their bowl victory against South Carolina, they won five times as a betting underdog. They also finished 5-1 in one-possession games. While they do return a copious amount of talent, this was really a six or seven win team in 2024. The preseason hype train is probably moving a little too fast with trouble ahead (and trouble behind). I think said hype train derails on Saturday against a solid Duke team that should probably be favored in this spot. The Blue Devils had a pretty good season themselves in 2024, winning nine games under first year head coach Manny Diaz. They also upgraded at quarterback in the offseason, coaxing Darian Mensah away from Tulane. Mensah led the Green Wave to the AAC Championship Game last season and while it is probably too much to ask for him to do the same in Durham, he should guide the Blue Devils to a fourth consecutive bowl game. Duke has lost three games in Durham since the start of the 2022 season. Those loss have come to North Carolina, Notre Dame, and SMU. Those three teams combined to finish 30-11 with North Carolina and SMU playing in the ACC Championship Game during the respective seasons they beat Duke. Illinois is not in that class. Duke will spring another outright upset at home.
Fresno State +3.5 Oregon State
Next season, this will be a Pac-12 (or 10 or 8 or you get idea) conference game. For now, it seems like a spot where the wrong team is favored. After a rough opener in Week Zero against Kansas, Fresno State looked like a vintage North Dakota State team in their home opener against Georgia Southern. The Bulldogs ran for 351 yards at nearly eight per clip against the Eagles. They complimented that rushing attack with a strong defensive showing, holding the Georgia Southern passing attack under 200 yards. Meanwhile, Oregon State got waxed at home by a Cal team that preseason prognosticators rated as one of the worst in the ACC. Obviously, Cal's freshman quarterback, Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (had to look up the spelling) has made it likely Cal does not finish near the basement of the ACC, but Oregon State also struggled offensively against the Bears. The Beavers were held to 65 yards rushing and only managed to score fifteen points. I think the general talent level at Oregon State has fallen off thanks to the (temporary) dissolution of the Pac-12 and the resulting homelessness suffered by Oregon State as well as the loss of their head coach Jonathan Smith after the 2023 season. The Beavers should not be favored in this spot, much less by more than a field goal. Take the Bulldogs to win outright.
North Texas -10.5 Western Michigan
I've mentioned it time and again. I hate laying points, especially double digits, and especially on the road. However, it worked out last week as Mississippi State covered their double digit spread against Southern Miss. I think we may be in for an encore in Kalamazoo. The Broncos did not score an offensive touchdown last week against Michigan State, recording a pick six to cover the number against the Spartans. They did allow just 23 points, but I think that is more indicative of the kind of offense Michigan State runs rather than an indication of any defensive prowess at Western Michigan. The Broncos will certainly need all the defense they can muster if they hope to knock off North Texas. The Mean Green play fast and score a lot of points under third year coach Eric Morris. Including last week's game against Lamar, North Texas has scored at least 30 points in fifteen of their 26 games under Morris. However, the reason I feel at least slightly comfortable laying all these points is what might be coalescing on the other side of the ball. The Mean Green hired Skyler Cassity to coordinate their defense in the offseason. Cassity coordinated a solid Group of Five defense at Sam Houston State last season as the Bearkats won ten games in just their second season as an FBS program. If North Texas can become a mediocre Group of Five defense, the Mean Green have a real shot to win the American. I know it was Lamar, but the Mean Green did pitch a shutout last week. For comparison's sake, their FCS opponents in 2023 (Abilene Christian) and 2024 (Stephen F. Austin) scored 31 and 20 points respectively. I think the Mean Green put the hammer down as they move to 2-0.
Virginia Tech -1.5 Vanderbilt
This might be the tipping point of the Brent Pry era in Blacksburg. 38 games into his tenure, the Hokies are 16-22 and have struggled to win games in August and September (6-9 record). They have closed strong each of the past two seasons to get to 6-6, but their early season struggles have put them behind the proverbial eight ball. 2025 continued that trend as the Hokies committed penalties, turnovers, dropped passes, and gave up a special teams touchdown in a neutral site loss to South Carolina. Still, there were some hints of optimism, particularly on defense. The Hokies held darkhorse Heisman quarterback LaNorris Sellers in check until a late deep ball buoyed his passing numbers. While the offense dropped passes and stagnated in Mercedes-Benz Stadium, the Hokie defense got stop after stop to keep them in the game. Now they return to Blacksburg to face a team that ruined their season in last year's opener. The Commodores jumped out to a 17-0 lead last season in Nashville, but Virginia Tech clawed back and forced overtime only to lose to an ascendant Vanderbilt team led by their irascible quarterback Diego Pavia. Pavia has been amazing as a betting underdog, cashing countless tickets first at New Mexico State and more recently with the perennial SEC punching bag. I love Pavia, but I think the Hokies will be ready for him, especially after facing a more gifted mobile quarterback in Sellers. Pavia has been a great bet as a big underdog, but with this spread less than a field goal, a Hokie win almost guarantees they cover this number (famous last words). I was high on Virginia Tech in the offseason and I will not be backing off of them after one uneven performance.
Tulsa -5.5 New Mexico State
What I'm about to write is not a controversial statement. Coaching matters in sports. New Mexico State is Exhibit A of this phenomenon. Jerry Kill pulled New Mexico State out of a sixty year downturn, guiding the Aggies to back-to-back bowl appearances in 2022 and 2023. The 2023 team was historic in the modern era, beating an SEC team on the road and playing for the conference crown against a team that ended up being the final Group of Five representative in the New Year's Six. After Kill stepped down to focus on his health, the Aggies hired Tony Sanchez. Sanchez is a legend in high school football, winning numerous titles at Bishop Gorman. However, his college coaching career can charitably be described as bad. He lost twice as many games as he won over five seasons at UNLV (20-40) and his first New Mexico State team predictably returned to the basement, finishing 3-9 and 2-6 in the weak Conference USA. The beginning of his second season did not inspire a lot of confidence. The Aggies scored 19 points against Bryant (not Kobe or Bear) of the FCS. This was not a fluky result either. New Mexico State averaged under three yards per carry and gained just north of 300 total yards. For reference, Bryant went 2-10 last season and has been a middling at best FCS team since moving up from Division II in the late aughts. Meanwhile, Tulsa laid it to their FCS opponent, beating Abilene Christian 35-7 in Tre Lamb's debut. Abilene Christian made the second round of the FCS playoffs last season and nearly upset Texas Tech in their 2024 opener. I'm always wary laying points on the road, but Tulsa plays in arguably the best Group of Five conference, has the coaching and talent edge, and put together a solid data point in their first game. Back the Golden Hurricane to win this by at least a touchdown and potentially blow the Aggies out.
San Diego State +1.5 Washington State
Next season this will also be a Pac (insert number here) conference game. For now though, it is another situation where I think the wrong team is favored. Washington State is probably set in the long term, with Jimmy Rogers taking over the program after a successful two season run at South Dakota State. Things don't look great in the short term though. The Cougars needed a late field goal to beat Idaho of the FCS at home last week. Idaho has been a strong FCS team since transitioning down almost a decade ago. However, the Vandals lost their head coach in the offseason to New Mexico and seemed to be in rebuilding mode, at least early in 2025. Then the Vandals went out and held Washington State to three rushing yards. The Cougars can't blame an abundance of sacks on that paltry total either, as Idaho sacked them just once (for a loss of 19 yards). Perhaps the Cougars improve after seeing live action, but the team I really expect to improve is San Diego State. Second year head coach Sean Lewis began his Kent State tenure with a 2-10 record in 2018. His second Kent State team improved by four games and qualified for a bowl. And that was Kent State, a program that is one of the worst in FBS in recent history. San Diego State has a much stronger track record, plays in a brand new stadium in one of the nicest climates in the United States, and is in a much stronger conference than the MAC. His first San Diego State team went just 3-9, but I expect the Aztecs to at least double that win total in 2025. After Saturday night, they will be one third of the way there.
