The Magnificent Seven: Week V

Finally. We had our first winning week. It did take a late backdoor from Temple, but we also missed two games by the hook. All in all, I think it was deserved. Lets see if we can put together a winning streak.  

Last Week: 4-3

Overall: 10-18

Virginia +6.5 Florida State

After upsetting Alabama over Labor Day Weekend, Florida State has basically had a month off before returning to action on Friday. They pounded East Texas A&M (FCS) and a team that probably should be FCS (Kent State). In between those two games, they had a bye to kick up their legs and enjoy their shiny top ten ranking. So through three games, they have pounded two teams nowhere near their talent level and ambushed an Alabama team that has also not accomplished much in the early going. As is almost always the case, Alabama entered the season with great expectations. And like Pip, they may reach those lofty goals (I don't remember the plot of Great Expectations, so maybe Pip didn't reach them), but thus far, they have also dominated two overmatched teams (Louisiana-Monroe and Wisconsin) so we don't really know how good they are. To sum thing up, Florida State engineered a massive upset against a team the jury is still out on and crushed two teams that are not in their weight class. Now they go on the road for the first time all season against a competent opponent celebrating the 30th anniversary of one of their biggest wins in program history (which also came in a game not played on Saturday). I expect to see a lot of highlights on ESPN of Warrick Dunn taking a shotgun snap. This is by far the best Virginia team of Tony Elliott's tenure with the team averaging over 45 points per game behind transfer quarterback Chandler Morris. Had Morris not thrown an interception in Raleigh with the Cavaliers driving against NC State, Virginia would likely be undefeated and this spread would probably be significantly less than a touchdown. I expect Virginia to keep this one close and would not be surprised if the weekend starts off with a top ten upset. 

Connecticut -3.5 Buffalo

Both these teams were trendy picks in the offseason. A lot of college football podcasts I respect thought the Bulls could build on last season's nine win campaign and compete in the MAC. Similarly, despite the presence of three power conference teams on the schedule, Connecticut's over/under win total was 7.5. For the record, I bet the under win total for both of these teams back in the summer. Hopefully, at least one of those bets gets home. I think I had a pretty good read on both of these teams as each has been a little disappointing thus far in 2025. Connecticut nearly beat Syracuse on the road, but they also lost to FBS newbie Delaware and were life and death with Ball State last week. However, I think you have to be more dissuaded from what Buffalo has done thus far. The Bulls played Minnesota relatively close on the scoreboard in their opener, but the Gophers nearly tripled their total yardage and should have won by more. Then they dominated their FCS opponent St. Francis. However, the Red Flashes are transitioning down to Division III. They then faced Kent State. The Golden Flashes are currently riding a twenty-five game FBS losing streak. However, the Bulls needed a late touchdown drive to pull that out of the fire. Finally, last week, at home against Troy and their backup quarterback, they surrendered a double digit second half lead. Connecticut has dominated this series between northeast have nots, winning fourteen of the sixteen meetings (ten of twelve as FBS opponents) with twelve of the fourteen victories coming by double digits, including last year's 47-3 drubbing against a Buffalo team that has clearly regressed. The Huskies should put up at least thirty in this spot and I don't think the Bulls will be able to keep up, especially not with their MAC schedule beginning in earnest next week against Eastern Michigan. 

Rice +14.5 Navy

When two service academies face off there are generally two tenets you should follow. Look for the under and if one is a significant favorite, look to the underdog. Rice is obviously not s service academy. Those nerds are probably not the ones we want defending our country. However, they have played like a service academy in their first season under Scott Abell. They run the ball and play slow. That reduces possessions and increases variance and (in theory) allows them to compete against teams with better talent. Navy has been doing the same thing for decades although they did modernize (or more accurately, adjust) the offense last season by adding concepts from the Delaware Wing T courtesy of offensive coordinator Drew Cronic. The Midshipmen won ten games last season and are 3-0 as we pass the quarter poll of 2025. However, with Rice playing an option offense, I think they will be able to limit Navy's attack. The Midshipmen won't be shut down, but I think they finish significantly below their seasonal scoring average (44 points per game). The Midshipmen also may be looking ahead to next week when they face a real service academy in the Air Force Falcons. The total in this game is quite low for a two touchdown spread (currently sits at 44.5). In a game that figures to have limited possessions, I like the underdog catching north of two touchdowns.  

California +6.5 Boston College

Imagine for one second if this game had been played last week. The Golden Bears from Berkeley would have been 3-0 and Boston College would have been 1-2 coming off back to back losses to Michigan State and Stanford. Cal probably would have been favored, despite the cross country journey. Of course, this game was not played last week. And in the interim Boston College has had a bye to lick the wounds from their west coast trip while Cal suffered a shocking loss to San Diego State. There were some extenuating circumstances in that loss. First off, it was a road trip to a non-power conference in-state opponent a week before conference play so the Aztecs were likely highly motivated and Cal may have been sleep walking. The Bears seemed like they were in position to take control early in that game, driving 75 yards on their first possession before failing on a fourth down conversion at the two yard line. They also missed a field goal in the first half and gave up an eighty yard pass to fall behind by two scores. In the second half, San Diego State scored two defensive touchdowns to put the game out of reach. The 34-0 final score was a bit misleading. Not that Cal deserved to win, but the Aztecs are not five touchdowns better than the boys from Berkeley. So, based on the result of one game, this spread has likely moved by about a touchdown. That pretty much guarantees there is value in the underdog. The only concern one might have is the cross country trip. Well, lets look back at Cal's first season in the ACC. Their five road games last year came against Auburn (non-conference), Florida State, Pittsburgh, SMU, and Wake Forest. The Bears finished 2-3 in those games, but two of those losses (Florida State and Pittsburgh) came by less than a touchdown. The Bears were blown out in their road trip to SMU, but that was actually their shortest trip and probably more attributable to the quality of the Mustangs. This game is at a reasonable time (3:30 EST), so Cal should have an opportunity to adjust their internal body clocks. Boston College has played well on offense this season, but their defense is not good enough to be laying nearly a touchdown against a quality opponent. 

UCLA +6.5 Northwestern

The DeShaun Foster era is mercifully over after a season and quarter at UCLA. While Foster finishes with a 5-10 overall record and a damning home blowout loss to New Mexico, I think his failures are more systemic and a result of problems within the program rather than any particular ineptitude he possesses. Foster played for the Carolina Panthers and helped guide them to a Super Bowl appearance during his NFL career, so I could be a bit biased, but the Bruins probably need to make some structural changes if they are to compete in this new era of college football. That being said, I think they are good play this week. For starters, the interim coach, Tim Skipper, has experience in this sort thing. Last season, he took over as interim head coach at Fresno State after Jeff Tedford departed in the summer due to health reasons. Second, UCLA is coming off a bye, so they have had extra time to prepare with the new regime. Third, while this game will be played quite east of Los Angeles, it is not a Noon kick. UCLA will have a few extra hours to adjust. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, they are playing Northwestern. Full transparency, I was intrigued by Northwestern in the offseason. I liked the addition of quarterback Preston Stone from SMU. But instead of moving the Northwestern offense forward, it has regressed to the Stone Age. Stone has thrown twice as many interceptions as touchdowns (six to three) and the team has scored seventeen total points in two games against FBS competition. Its hard to win and even harder to cover if you can't score. Neither team in this game is good, but the difference between them is not close to a touchdown. Back the Bruins. 

Auburn +6.5 Texas A&M

These two former SEC West rivals have played every season since the Aggies joined the SEC in 2012. Over those thirteen games, Auburn has eked out a 7-6 record. But perhaps the most interesting tidbit about this series is the performance of the road team and the underdog. The road team is 8-5 straight up and amazingly won the first six games in the rivalry between 2012 and 2017. The underdog is also 8-5 straight up in this series. Like Tiny Toon Adventures, it is usually best to expect the unexpected. Auburn is making their second consecutive tough road trip after losing in Norman last week and Texas A&M is off a bye, but I think the Tigers have a real chance to win this game outright. This will be by far the best defense Texas A&M has faced all season. Their first two opponents were non-power conference teams (UTSA and Utah State) and while their win in South Bend was impressive, this may be the worst defense Notre Dame has fielded since the invention of the forward pass. Auburn is eighth nationally in tackles for loss (32) so they should be able to wreck some havoc in the Aggies backfield. Of course, the Aggies should be able to force their fair share of pressure against an Auburn team that allowed ten sacks last week. The Tigers line and quarterback Jackson Arnold's propensity to hold the football too long will probably prevent them from winning this game, but they arguably outplayed Oklahoma in Norman last week. This line should be closer to a field goal, so take the added value in the Tigers from The Plains. 

Florida Atlantic +13.5 Memphis

Memphis put themselves in position to contend for the College Football Playoff by knocking off SEC neighbor Arkansas in a classic last week. The Tigers fell behind 28-10 in the first half, but outscored the Razorbacks 22-3 the rest of the way to eke out a win. Can they maintain their focus as they travel to Boca Raton to face a Florida Atlantic team that has struggled in Zach Kittley's first season in charge? In two games against FBS competition, the Owls have turned the ball over (either via interception or turnover on downs) on 19 of 28 possessions (excluding those possessions that close the half). Quarterback Caden Veltkamp has already thrown seven interceptions after throwing ten all of last season. And the team as a whole has a turnover margin of minus 8. That helps explain why they have lost to Maryland and Florida International by a combined 42 points despite winning the yardage battle. With a bye week to get in sync and some positive regression in the turnover department (just one forced turnover in three games), I think the Owls are primed to take flight on offense. The next three games for Memphis are against these Owls, Tulsa, and UAB. Most casual observers figure they should be 7-0 before hosting South Florida in late October. However, the Tigers have made a habit of losing or coming close to losing road games under Ryan Silverfield. They are just 7-12 in road conference games under his watch. They may not drop to 7-13 after Saturday, but the Owls will put up a fight at home.