Strangers in the Field Part X: How'd We Do?

After last season's debacle, I made no NFL wagers during my pilgrimage to Las Vegas, so we can grade the bets now. It wasn't a great betting season, but at least we didn't lose any money. 

AAC Bets

Didn't have a great read on the AAC. Navy and Tulane probably deserved to get home, but the Midshipmen and Green Wave won the close ones (combined 10-0 in one-score games). Thankfully, Rice, one of my biggest bets, cashed. 

ACC Bets

I had better luck in the ACC, but my biggest bet of the year (Virginia Tech), didn't come close to getting there. The Hokies led at the half in nearly all their conference games in 2024 and I figured that would portend a solid season in 2025. It did not. Also, while I did not wager for or against Duke, Manny Diaz has made a lifelong enemy. Duke lost to teams I had the under on (Connecticut, Illinois, and Tulane) and had no trouble handling teams I bet the over on (Cal and NC State). 

Big 10 Bets

Another league I did not have a good read on. I will say, I missed a lot of these by one win (Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, and Oregon). The Maryland loss was particularly painful as the Terrapins began the season 4-0 and had a 20-0 lead in the second half of their fifth game. They lost that one en route to an eight game losing streak. It totally made sense to bring Mike Locksley back. 

Big 12 Bets

You're probably asking, where are the good bets? I assure you, they are coming. I whiffed really bad predicting a rebound for Oklahoma State. 

Conference USA Bets

Despite the 3-3 record, this was somewhat profitable, since I bet pretty big on Sam Houston State having a rough year. Four FBS teams lost to FCS teams in 2025. And I bet the over on two of them. One was Middle Tennessee. See if you can guess the other. 

Independent Bets

If you told me the Huskies were going to lose to both Delaware and Rice, I would have guaranteed this was a winner. Of course, if you told me the Huskies would beat both Boston College and Duke, I would have guaranteed it was a loser. 

MAC Bets

Came close to sweeping the rust belt, but Eastern Michigan lost to an FCS team. The double dip dumpster dive on Kent State was profitable and an easy pair of winners. I've bitched a lot (and will continue to do so) about the relative bad luck I had this season, but its also important to acknowledge good fortune. Ball State was not good in 2025, but the Cardinals won all their one score games (3-0) to barely get home. 

Mountain West Bets

Had a good read on the Mountain West and with some better luck, we could have swept this one as well. UNLV was playing with fire all season (5-1 in one score games) while Air Force finished 1-3 in one-score games and suffered a quarterback injury late in the season. 

SEC Bets

This was a low volume, but profitable group of bets. Florida and South Carolina hit the under with ease while Kentucky and Missouri hit and missed by one game respectively. 

Sun Belt Bets

Came close to sweeping the Sun Belt and arguably should have. Arkansas State won six games and three of them came by exactly one point. 

Miscellaneous Bets

None of these got home, but I hope you can understand the logic. I did not trust Auburn to get over their win total, but I figured they had decent upside in case they got good quarterback play. They did not. Iowa had both Indiana and Oregon on the ropes in Iowa City. All four of their losses came by five points or less, so they were closer to making the playoff than it might appear. Utah lost a tight game to BYU to miss out on the Big 12 Championship Game. They were probably not beating Texas Tech anyway though. UTSA played well at home, but they were never in contention to win the AAC which they would have had to do to make the playoff. Washington struggled on the road, but I thought they might have the upside to qualify for the playoff if they could beat Ohio State and Oregon at home. They could not. The reckless parlay did not go well. Colorado was in the game with Georgia Tech, but ultimately lost by a touchdown while Northwestern was blown out by Tulane. 

Money Wagered: $2470

Money Won: $2480.60

ROI: 0.4%

We technically won money, but it was mostly a break even season. Overall, we were 26-23 on win totals, but a somewhat unlucky 6-10 on wagers within one win. On the bright side, we had some negative variance and still came out (slightly) ahead. 

Thanks for reading the blog this year. We will return with out YPP and APR write ups for each conference starting on the first Thursday after the national championship game. See you then.