We inch closer to the true end of football season as the Super Bowl is but a few days away. Before you start making plans for wings, beer, and pizza, lets take a look back the ACC season that was in 2025.
Here are the 2025 ACC standings.
So we know what each team achieved, but how did they perform? To answer that, here are the Yards Per Play (YPP), Yards Per Play Allowed (YPA) and Net Yards Per Play (Net) numbers for each ACC team. This includes conference play only (so the Virginia at NC State game is not included), with the championship game not included. The teams are sorted by Net YPP with conference rank in parentheses.
College football teams play either eight or nine conference games. Consequently, their record in such a small sample may not be indicative of their quality of play. A few fortuitous bounces here or there can be the difference between another ho-hum campaign or a special season. Randomness and other factors outside of our perception play a role in determining the standings. It would be fantastic if college football teams played 100 or even 1000 games. Then we could have a better idea about which teams were really the best. Alas, players would miss too much class time, their bodies would be battered beyond recognition, and I would never leave the couch. As it is, we have to make do with the handful of games teams do play. In those games, we can learn a lot from a team’s YPP. Since 2005, I have collected YPP data for every conference. I use conference games only because teams play such divergent non-conference schedules and the teams within a conference tend to be of similar quality. By running a regression analysis between a team’s Net YPP (the difference between their Yards Per Play and Yards Per Play Allowed) and their conference winning percentage, we can see if Net YPP is a decent predictor of a team’s record. Spoiler alert. It is. For the statistically inclined, the correlation coefficient between a team’s Net YPP in conference play and their conference record is around .66. Since Net YPP is a solid predictor of a team’s conference record, we can use it to identify which teams had a significant disparity between their conference record as predicted by Net YPP and their actual conference record. I used a difference of .200 between predicted and actual winning percentage as the threshold for ‘significant’. Why .200? It is a little arbitrary, but .200 corresponds to a difference of 1.6 games over an eight game conference schedule and 1.8 games over a nine game one. Over or under-performing by more than a game and a half in a small sample seems significant to me. In the 2025 season, which teams in the ACC met this threshold? Here are ACC teams sorted by performance over what would be expected from their Net YPP numbers.
In 2025, Bill Belichick became the most accomplished NFL head coach to take over in Chapel Hill. Belichick narrowly edges Butch Davis with a mere 278 additional wins and six more NFL championships. However, unlike Davis, Belichick was never a college head coach before coaching the Tar Heels. Davis coached the Miami Hurricanes in the late 90s, revitalized The U, and narrowly missed out on winning a national title after being seduced by the riches of the NFL and less so, the Cleveland Browns. How rare was Belichick's situation at North Carolina? Rare, but at the same time, not as rare as I initially thought.
Full disclosure. I am but one man. I do not have a research team, so this list may be incomplete, but I believe including Belichick, there have been thirteen head coaches who went from the NFL to college (FBS level) with no previous college head coaching experience. I wanted to find a quick and dirty way to divide this cohort and experience seemed like the easiest route to take. Seven had coached fewer than 100 regular season NFL games before going to college and six had coached at least 100. That's a pretty even split for a sample size of thirteen. The table below lists the six head coaches with less than 100 games of NFL experience along with their age when they got their first college job, the college team(s) they coached, and their overall record in college. We'll give each a mini bio starting with those with the least NFL head coaching experience.
Lane Kiffin - The Boy Wonder was coach of the Oakland Raiders at the precocious age of 32 after having coordinated some great Southern Cal offenses during their run in the early aughts. He didn't have much success in the NFL and he didn't last very long, having been fired four games into his second season with a 5-15 overall record. Legendary NFL owner Al Davis had harsh words for Kiffin, saying he 'disgraced' the organization. That didn't stop Kiffin from getting a college head coaching job the very next season, in the SEC no less. Kiffin coached one season at Tennessee before bouncing to Los Angeles to take over for Pete Carroll. Kiffin had some decent success with the Trojans, but was famously fired on the tarmac after a loss to Arizona State. He rehabilitated his career calling plays for some vintage Nick Saban teams before getting another chance at a head coaching gig, this time in Boca Raton with Florida Atlantic. He guided the Owls to two Conference USA titles in three years and then returned to the SEC, this time at Ole Miss. He spent six seasons in Oxford and while he never won the SEC or played for the SEC title, he did guide the Rebels to the CFP this past season before exiting with no controversy at all to take another SEC job in Baton Rouge. Kiffin has ultimately been a success as a college head coach, but I hope LSU fans are prepared for a wild ride. When saddled with expectations, his teams have often failed to meet the moment. His 2012 Southern Cal team was preseason number one and finished 7-6. Sandwiched between two conference titles at Florida Atlantic, his second team finished with a losing record. His 2024 Ole Miss team was arguably the most talented squad in the country, but lost three games, including an indefensible home loss to Kentucky that ultimately kept the Rebels out of the first expanded CFP.
Bill Callahan - In his first season in charge of the Oakland Raiders, Callahan took them to the Super Bowl. The team collapsed the next season, Callahan was fired, and he took over at Nebraska. Callahan led the Cornhuskers for four seasons and did get them to the Big 12 Championship Game in 2006. However, they finished 5-7 in his final season (2007), and my lasting memory of that team will always be them allowing 76 points in a loss at Kansas.
June Jones - Jones got the Falcons to playoffs in his second season at the helm, maximizing quarterback Jeff George's talents in the Run N' Shoot offense. The good times wouldn't last as George and Jones engaged in a shouting match on the sidelines the following season during which the Falcons went 3-13. George was released shortly after the tirade and Jones was fired after the season. Jones reemerged as the offensive coordinator and later interim head coach of the San Diego Chargers two seasons later, coaching quarterback luminaries Ryan Leaf and Craig Whelihan. His services were not retained after the season and he took his talents to the islands, landing the head coaching gig at Hawaii. The Rainbow Warriors were coming off a winless campaign, but Jones guided them to nine wins in his first season. He stayed at Hawaii for nine season, leading a consistent bowl team that culminated with their schedule aided appearance in the Sugar Bowl following the 2007 season. The Rainbow Warriors did not acquit themselves well against the Georgia in the Sugar Bowl, but they still finished ranked in the AP Poll for the first time in school history. Jones was upset with the lack of commitment to football at Hawaii and returned to the mainland seeking another challenge. SMU was coming off a 1-11 season when he arrived. Jones did not get things turned around in his first season (another 1-11 finish), but did guide the Mustangs to four consecutive bowl appearances beginning in his second season.
Pete Carroll - Carroll was a moderately successful NFL head coach over four seasons and two playoff appearances with the Jets and Patriots. He was famously the meat in the Hall of Fame Sandwich of Patriots head coaches between 1993 and 2023 (Bill Parcells, Pete Carroll, and Bill Belichick). He replaced Paul Hackett as coach of Southern Cal in 2001. Three games into his second season, the Trojans were just 9-8, but they won forty five of their next forty seven games, sharing the 2003 national title with LSU, winning the 2004 title, and losing an all-time classic against Texas in the Rose Bowl after the 2005 season to narrowly miss out on a threepeat. Carroll continued to put good to great teams on the field during his final four seasons in Los Angeles, finishing in the top five of the AP Poll three times before the siren call of the NFL lured him to Seattle. Carroll won 137 games and a Super Bowl over fourteen seasons with the Seahawks and came back to tarnish his legacy somewhat by leading the Las Vegas Raiders to a 3-14 record this past season.
Jim Mora Jr. - Not to be confused with his father (playoffs?), the younger Mora guided the Falcons to the NFC Championship Game during his first season as head coach. Things would go downhill from there as he lasted just two more seasons in Atlanta and one forgettable season as head coach in Seattle before taking the UCLA job in 2012. He got the Bruins to the Pac-12 Championship Game in his first season and won ten games twice in Los Angeles before his firing in 2017. A few years later he took on the challenge of revitalizing the moribund Connecticut program. He guided the Huskies to three bowl appearances over four seasons and is now the head coach at Colorado State.
Jack Pardee - Pardee coached the Bears and Washington with minimal success in the 1970s through 1980 (he immediately preceded Joe Gibbs in Washington). He later had more success in the USFL guiding the Houston Gamblers to playoff appearances in both his seasons as head coach. While in the USFL, Pardee began using the Run N' Shoot offense and after the league folded, he took that offense to the University of Houston. After a rough first season, the Cougars won nine games in both 1988 and 1989 with quarterback Andre Ware winning the Heisman in 1989. Alas, the Cougars were ineligible for the postseason due to sanctions committed under Pardee's predecessor, the legendary Bill Yeoman. Pardee returned to the NFL following the 1989 season, leading the Houston Oilers to four playoff appearances in five seasons.
Mike Sherman - Sherman replaced Ray Rhodes as head coach of the Green Bay Packers in 2000 and with the assistance of Hall of Fame quarterback and alleged grifter Brett Favre, guided the Packers to four playoff appearances in his first five seasons. The team never advanced past the Divisional Round and Sherman was fired after a 4-12 season in 2005. After two seasons as an offensive coordinator with the Houston Texans, he was hired by Texas A&M. The Aggies were mostly mediocre during his tenure, finishing with a winning record just once in his four seasons.
Those seven coaches had limited NFL experience before going to college. As previously mentioned, the next six all coached at least 100 regular season NFL games before becoming first time college head coaches.
Forrest Gregg - Gregg was a Hall of Fame offensive lineman with the Green Bay Packers before he got into coaching. His head coaching tenure was not quite as successful (75-85-1 overall record at Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Green Bay), but he did guide the Bengals to the Super Bowl in 1981. Gregg became a college head coach for the first time at his alma mater in 1989. This was SMU's first season after the 'Death Penalty' where they did not field a team for two seasons (1987 and 1988) and were hit with a plethora of scholarship and television penalties for their behavior in the early 80s. Low budget horror films often hire established actors (think Donald Pleasence in the original Halloween) to give them an aura of legitimacy. SMU did something similar. They hired an alum with a distinguished professional playing and decent head coaching career to lend their program some legitimacy after their improprieties came to light. He might have also been the only person willing to take the job. While Gregg gave the program some legitimacy, he predictably did not find any success thanks to the sanctions. The Mustangs finished 3-19 in his two seasons, with two of those wins coming against I-AA (now FCS opponents).
George Allen - Allen is probably the closest comp to Bill Belichick. He was an impossibly successful regular season coach, winning over 70% of his games with the Rams and Washington through the 60s and 70s. However, his teams struggled in the playoffs, winning just two games, with both coming in 1972 when Washington advanced to the Super Bowl. Allen coached his last NFL game in 1977 and coached two seasons in the USFL in 1983 and 1984 (with the Chicago Blitz and Arizona Wranglers respectively), but was lured back into coaching by Long Beach State in 1990 when he was 72 years old. The 49ers, who dropped football after the 1991 season, finished 6-5 under Allen. Unfortunately, as happens more often to men in their 70s than men in their 40s or 50s, Allen died shortly after the season concluded. His death has occasionally been attributed to the Gatorade shower he received after the 49ers beat UNLV in their season finale, but this is probably apocryphal. I'm also cheating a bit listing Allen here, as he did coach Morningside (NAIA) and Whittier (Division III) in the 40s and 50s before becoming an NFL head coach.
Dave Wannstedt - Wannstedt coached the Bears and Dolphins to mostly mediocre finishes through eleven seasons in the NFL. His teams made the playoffs three times, but never advanced past the Divisional Round. After being fired by the Dolphins, he became head coach at his alma mater, Pitt. The Panthers were mostly meh under his tutelage, but did finish with ten wins and a top fifteen final ranking in the AP Poll in 2009.
Lovie Smith - Smith coached the Bears for nine seasons, leading them to the Super Bowl in 2006. I had forgotten his stint in Tampa Bay, but he also coached the Bucs to two losing seasons in 2014 and 2015. He was hired by Illinois in 2016 and kept the job for five seasons despite never posting a winning record. He returned to the NFL as head coach of the Houston Texas in 2022, but lasted just one season, finishing 3-13-1.
Bill Belichick - Belichick coached both the Browns and Patriots to varying levels of success in the NFL. I suppose that is a bit unfair. Compared to other Cleveland coaches, his tenure (36-44 with one playoff appearance) is better than it looks on paper. He of course achieved great success in New England with a quarterback you may have heard of and didn't have nearly as much success once that quarterback left (29-38 record last four seasons after Brady's departure). Early returns on his tenure in Chapel Hill were not great, although the team did play better after their 38-10 home loss to Clemson. Who knows how long Belichick remains in Chapel Hill, but as with most career codas, I think this tenure will only serve to tarnish his legacy.
Odds and Ends
Before we leave, I wanted to touch on three coaches who don't technically meet the criteria we set forth earlier, but sort of meet them spiritually.
Jerry Glanville - One of the better 'characters' in the NFL, Glanville coached for nine seasons in Houston and Atlanta, making four playoff appearances before transitioning to television. In 2007, he took over at Portland State (FCS) and while the Vikings never finished with a winning record during his three seasons, I'm sure he was entertaining for the beat reporters.
Lou Saban - I'm not sure if the song 'I've Been Everywhere' was written specifically for Lou Saban, but it would not surprise me if it was. Saban's list of gigs is too long to include here, so I'll direct you to his wikipedia page. He did win two AFL titles (pre-Super Bowl) as head coach of the Buffalo Bills in the mid-60s.
Bill Walsh - When I was starting the research on this post, I figured Walsh would be one of the coaches who went to college with no previous head coaching experience. However, I forgot Walsh got his start at Stanford in the late 70s, winning 17 games over two seasons before becoming the architect of the San Francisco dynasty in the NFL in the 1980s. After retiring following his third Super Bowl triumph in 1988, Walsh returned to Stanford in 1992. The Cardinal won ten games in his first year, but finished 7-14-1 over his final two seasons. Walsh retired from coaching for good following the 1994 season.
