Mid-Season SDPI: Big East, Mountain West, and WAC

Here we are in early November, and finally the Big East has played enough conference games to get a decent idea about how their teams are faring. There is a surprise contender in the mix, which we'll get to in a second. In addition, in this week's SDPI mid-season report, we'll preview the titanic clash of mid-majors in the Mountain West and see if either Hawaii or Nevada has a ghost of a chance at knocking off Boise in the WAC. How did the SDPI ratings do in handicapping the Big 10, Big 12, and Pac-10 last week? They did pretty well overall (12-4) and ATS (9-6-1), but missed on predicting the biggest games, calling for Michigan State to upset Iowa and Southern Cal to end Oregon's unbeaten reign. Next week, we'll finish our mid-major rounds with Conference USA, the MAC, and the Sun Belt SDPI ratings.

Big East The Cuse is Loose
The surprise contender at the top of the Big East standings is none other than the Orange of Syracuse University. The Orange have 3 Big East wins this season. That is the same number of league games they won in 4 seasons under Greg Robinson. Doug Marrone better clear off his mantle for some postseason awards. After all, who in their right mind would have predicted a bowl appearance for the Orange? How are the Orange doing it? Actually, according to the SDPI numbers they have regressed a bit in their down-to-down performance. Last year the surprisingly boasted the second best defense in the league, but paired that with the sixth ranked defense. This year, both the offense and defense have gotten a little worse, the offense is still sixth, but the defense has fallen to third. So how are the Orange winning? Turnovers. Last season, Syracuse, committed 18 turnovers in their 7 Big East games (thanks Greg Paulus), and forced only 9 turnovers for a league-worst margin of -9. This season, the Orange have protected the ball a little better, committing only 8 turnovers through 4 games. However, they have also already forced 8 turnovers for an even turnover margin. In fact, the Orange have in the proverbial turnover black in their 3 league wins (+4), and their loss to Pitt represented their only game in the red (-4).
Here are the Big East standings through Saturday's games.Now here are the SDPI standings. Overall rank in Offense, Defense, and Total SDPI is parentheses.Cincinnati-The Bearcats are in danger of missing out on a bowl game for the first time since 2005 despite their solid SDPI numbers thanks to a -5 turnover margin in Big East play.
Connecticut-The win over West Virginia may have done wonders for morale, but the Huskies appear to be the worst team in the conference.
Louisville-Welcome back to the land of the living. Hard to believe a split in their final two games would put Louisville in a bowl for the first time since 2006.
Pittsburgh-Can Wannstedt finally lead the Panthers to that elusive BCS berth? And can they avoid embarrassing themselves if they get there?
Rutgers-The offense has improved from last year's miserable showing, but unfortunately the defense has fallen off.
South Florida-The perennial under-achievers are at it again. At least they have the whole regime change as an excuse this time.
Syracuse-Still an outside shot to win the league, but Pitt must lose twice and the Orange must win out. In an interesting finale, they have a chance to keep former conference mate Boston College home for the holidays.
West Virginia-The Mountaineers are wasting a fantastic defensive effort with a slew of offensive mistakes (7 turnovers in their last two games).


Mountain West A Cut Above
Saturday night, if you are one of the fortunate ones, you will be able to see perhaps the biggest regular season mid-major showdown of all time. #4 TCU visits #6 Utah in a game that should not only decide the Mountain West title, but also has massive national implications. TCU and Utah are a combined 10-0 versus the rest of the Mountain West, with only Utah's recent win over Air Force being the only game ever in doubt in the second half. TCU has won each of their conference games by at least 27 points and has only allowed a pair of touchdowns in 5 games. Utah has been a little less dominant, but outside of their 5 point road win over Air Force, their other conference wins have come by at least 24 points. Utah has allowed only 6 offensive touchdowns through 5 league games. If it weren't for the performance of the Horned Frogs, we would be talking about how dominant Utah has been in their conference games.
Here are the Mountain West standings through Saturday's games.Now here are the SDPI standings. Overall rank in Offense, Defense, and Total SDPI is parentheses.Air Force-Despite their 5-4 record, the Falcons could easily be 8-1 if a few bounces had gone their way (a 3-point loss at Oklahoma, 2-point loss at San Diego St, and 5-point loss versus Utah).
BYU-It's certainly not a sure thing, but with games left against UNLV, Colorado St, and Wyoming, the Cougars have a chance to be bowl-eligible despite a horrific 1-4 start.
Colorado State-The Rams have to win out to get to a bowl (not likely with San Diego St, BYU, and Wyoming left), but after going winless in the conference last season, this marks improvement.
New Mexico-The pillow fight at home this week versus Wyoming should determine who finishes dead last in the Mountain West, and is also the Lobos last legitimate shot at a win.
San Diego State-The Aztecs have yet to play the Big 2, but even with those games remaining, 8 regular season wins seems likely.
TCU-Believe it or not, the Horned Frogs were even more dominant last season. Their cumulative SDPI was 3.99 in 2009, more than double that of second place BYU (1.45).
UNLV-On the surface, coach Bobby Hauck has not improved the program, but according to SDPI, the Rebels were the worst team in the conference last season.
Utah-Even if by some miracle the Utes get by TCU, there are still several landmines left on the schedule (@Notre Dame, @San Diego St, versus BYU).
Wyoming-Last season, a bad Wyoming team qualified (and won) a bowl because they were unstoppable in close games (6-0 in one-score games). This season, a bad Wyoming team has won a few close ones (2-2 in one-score games), but looks destined for the basement.


WAC Boise's Biggest Challengers
Unfortunately for Boise haters, the biggest contender to Boise's throne in the WAC appears to be Hawaii. I say unfortunately because the Warriors must travel to Idaho for that game. If the game were on the islands, an upset could have been a possibility. As for Nevada, they appear to be Boise's second biggest challenger, and that game is in Reno. However, Nevada appears to be a cut below Hawaii, and several cuts below Boise. An undefeated season for the Broncos seems all but assured.
Here are the WAC standings through Saturday's games.Now here are the SDPI standings. Overall rank in Offense, Defense, and Total SDPI is parentheses.Boise State-Surprise, surprise. In their last season in the WAC, Boise is once again dominating their conference competition.
Fresno State-Their conference schedule is back-loaded with road games against Louisiana Tech and Boise and a home game against Nevada.
Hawaii-The Warriors have dominated their WAC competition and could be the league favorite next season with no Boise to contend with.
Idaho-The Vandals aren't necessarily good, but they have a chance to qualify for their second consecutive (and third overall) bowl game.
Louisiana Tech-The Bulldogs have rebounded nicely from their 1-4 start, but must still win 3 of their final 4 games to qualify for the postseason.
Nevada-After their solid non-conference performance, the Wolfpack have been a little disappointing once conference play began.
New Mexico State-The Aggies have beaten their in-state foe, New Mexico, and San Jose State. Those teams have combined for one overall win and zero wins over IA foes.
San Jose State-The Spartans last best chance for a IA win comes this week against Utah State.
Utah State-A season that began with such promise (a close loss at Oklahoma and a win over in-state bully BYU), has fizzled into yet another losing season.

Fab Five: Week IX

After consecutive winning weeks, I hit a rough patch. I went just 4-6, including an amazing 0-5 on dogs. This drags my yearly mark to 41-38-1. We'll try and get that corrected this week. As always, home teams are in Bold.

5 Dogs I Like

Last Week: 0-5
Overall: 17-22-1

Purdue +17 Illinois
My SDPI numbers rate the Boilermakers as the worst team in the Big 10, so they are an odd choice to make a play on this week. However, the majority of that rating is thanks to their performance last week against a ticked off Ohio State squad. Remove that game, and the Boilermakers rate out as a middling Big 10 team. And speaking of middling, have you met the Illini? Surprisingly, Illinois currently boasts the second best defense in the conference. However, their offense, under freshman quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase, is only ranked 9th in the Big 10. Asking a team that relies on their defense to that great an extent to cover a 3-score margin seems to be pushing it. That makes Purdue the pick here.

Kentucky +6.5 Mississippi State
The Cowbells will certainly be out in full force on Saturday night as Mississippi State seeks to lock up only its second winning season since 2000. However, the Bulldogs appear to be a little over-valued by the general public. Consider, both of their league wins have been close (beat Georgia by 12 and Florida by 3) and their offense has yet to gain more than 314 yards against an SEC foe. Kentucky has the offensive firepower to put a scare into Mississippi State, if not pull out the outright upset.

Michigan State +6.5 Iowa
For those of you that read my SDPI post for this week (and if you didn't, why not?), you know that the numbers have not taken too kindly to Iowa. The Hawkeyes feature both a below average Big 10 offense and defense and rank a very un-Iowa like 7th in the Big 10. Meanwhile, Michigan State is undefeated and is very balanced on both offense and defense. The Spartans catching nearly a touchdown is too good to pass up, even if the game is in Iowa City.

Southern Cal +7 Oregon
Like the Michigan State/Iowa game, the SDPI numbers believe the wrong team is favored in this one. Believe it or not, Southern Cal actually has a superior offense against Pac-10 foes than the Ducks. Oregon has been great for sure, but some of their offensive number are certainly inflated by having games against New Mexico (winless) and Portland State (IAA) on the schedule. While certainly not elite, the Trojans also have a better defense than Oregon. Plus, this game is at night, and is Southern Cal's chance to show the nation how good they are since they are ineligible for postseason play. Look for a motivated and hungry Trojan team to win this one outright.

New Mexico State +3.5 San Jose State
These are two of the worst teams in all of IA football. New Mexico State owns just a single win (over winless in-state rival New Mexico), and San Jose State has also tasted victory only once (over IAA Southern Utah). Still, nothing about San Jose State screams that they should be favored in this game. Don't watch this pillow fight, but take the home team to cover.

Five Faves I Like

Last Week: 4-1
Overall: 24-16

West Virginia -6.5 Connecticut
One week after helping Syracuse clinch their best season in a half-decade, the Mountaineers head to Storrs to take on another team enduring a disappointing season. Thought by many to be contenders in the Big East race in the preseason, the Huskies are now in real danger of missing out on a bowl game for the first time since 2006. Their 3 wins this year have come against Texas Southern (IAA), Buffalo (2-5), and Vanderbilt (2-5). The good news for the Huskies is all those wins have come at home, which happens to be the locale for this contest. Unfortunately, the huskies are having major issues throwing the football with quarterback Cody Endres being dismissed from the team. In their last 2 games, the Huskies have averaged only 240 yards per game. West Virginia is holding their foes to just 246 yards per game. Connecticut will have a hard time getting to double digits, so West Virginia should be able to cover this number rather easily.

Maryland -6 Wake Forest
I usually don't like to pick games involving my alma mater, but this one seems too good to pass up. Wake ranks below average offensively and quite terrible defensively in the ACC, while Maryland has struggled moving the ball, but has been quite stout on defense. In addition Wake has struggled in their recent trips to College Park. The Deacons have only beaten the Terps once in 4 tries at Maryland, and that came in the ACC title year of 2006. Look for Maryland to win rather comfortably here.

Marshall -3 UTEP
The UTEP last-season swoon is in full effect. While the Miners have only lost 2 in a row after their 5-1 start, more losses are assuredly on the way with games against SMU, Arkansas, and Tulsa remaining on the schedule. Of course, UTEP is not choking, they were merely never very good to begin with. Their 5 wins have come against Arkansas-Pine Bluff (IAA), New Mexico State (one win over a IA team), Memphis (one win over a IA team), New Mexico (winless), and Rice (two wins over IA teams). In their last two games against powerhouses UAB and Tulane (combined two IA wins besides UTEP), the Miners have gained just 515 total yards and scored just 30 points. Marshall is far from a good team, but the Miners have proven they may be just as bad, and are also traveling a few time zones east. Take the Herd to win by at least a field goal.

Florida International -5 Florida Atlantic
After standing in the shadow of their fellow Sun Belt Sunshine Stater, the Golden Panthers from Florida International appear to be headed toward their first ever bowl bid in school history. After playing 3 of their BCS-conference opponents tough in September, the Golden Panthers have again proven their mettle in Sun Belt play, starting the year out 2-0 in the conference. Meanwhile, the Owls have struggled since winning their opener over UAB. Florida Atlantic has lost 5 straight, with 3 of the losses coming in league play, including a nasty home loss to North Texas. Look for Florida International to win by at least a touchdown and grab their first victory in this series since 2005.

Arkansas -20.5 Vanderbilt
As I stated in last week's SDPI post, Vanderbilt may actually be worse this season than they were in a winless league campaign in 2009. Arkansas has one of the SEC's best offenses with or without Ryan Mallet. It's hard to envision Vandy scoring more than 10 points here, and equally hard to envision Arkansas being held below 30. The Hogs should roll here and cover this number with ease.

Mid-Season SDPI: Big 10, Big 12, and Pac-10

As promised last week, here are the mid-season SDPI ratings for teams in the Big 10, Big 12, and Pac-10. Before we get to the ratings though, how did the ACC and SEC ratings perform this past week? Well, the ratings nailed Georgia, which won handily at Kentucky. However, the 'elite' defense that I proclaimed LSU possessed was turned to rubble against Auburn. Still, on the whole, the SDPI ratings did pretty well, posting a 7-2 mark both straight up and against the spread (the losses were LSU over Auburn and Georgia Tech over Clemson). I'll keep you posted on how the ratings perform this week. Next week, we'll finally have a large enough sample to handicap the final BCS conference, the Big East. In addition, look for the Mountain West ratings, where we'll handicap the potential top-10 matchup between TCU and Utah. TCU has what should be an easy win on the road against UNLV, while the Utes have a much tougher road game at Air Force. I'll also try to crunch the Conference USA and WAC numbers next week too.

Big 10 Shutout of the BCS Title Game?
That scenario is a real possibility heading into the last month of the regular season. Michigan State must not only win out (very conceivable), but they must also hope either Oregon or Auburn falters down the stretch. Even if both lose, that may not be enough, as TCU, Boise, or Utah are likely to finish the year unbeaten as well. And what about a potential one-loss Alabama or LSU? If the Spartans can win in Iowa City this week, we could be in for some mega-BCS chaos in early December.
Here are the Big 10 standings through Saturday's games.
Now here are the SDPI standings. Overall rank in Offense, Defense, and Total SDPI is parentheses.Illinois-Vic Koenning has done wonders for that Illini defense, as they have improved from 9th to 2nd in just one season. Koenning also consistently coordinated stellar defenses at Clemson, and improved Kansas State's defensive acumen in his only season there.
Indiana-The Hoosiers need to somehow steal two conference games to get to a bowl. I say steal because they will likely be an underdog in all 5, and with Minnesota not on the schedule, the Big 10 could have a pair of winless conference teams.
Iowa-Surprisingly, the defense is not as stout as it has been the past two seasons.
Michigan-The best offense and the worst defense in the conference.
Michigan State-Extremely well-balanced on both sides of the ball. Don't be surprised if they walk out of Iowa City with their undefeated record in tow.
Minnesota-Like Indiana, will likely be an underdog in the rest of their games.
Northwestern-The numbers love the Wildcats. Should be a team to watch in the second half.
Ohio State-The Terrelle Pryor for Heisman hype has dissipated, but the defense is still nasty as ever.
Penn State-Joe Pa's charges continue to struggle, but they got their must-needed first conference win at Minnesota.
Purdue-Probably not the league's worst team, but Ohio State so thoroughly dominated them that their overall numbers have plummeted.
Wisconsin-Like Iowa, another team that does not appear to be as strong as their record would indicate.


Big 12 Baylor?!
Yes Baylor. The Bears are currently in first place in the Big 12 South and also rate out as the best team in the conference thanks to a ridiculous offense that is currently averaging, yes averaging, over 600 yards per game in league play. They currently average over 120 more yards per game than the second best offense (Texas A&M). Perhaps not coincidentally, the Bears are also bowl eligible for the first time since 1994, and have a chance to finish .500 or better in Big 12 play for the first time ever!
Here are the Big 12 standings through Saturday's games.
Now here are the SDPI standings. Overall rank in Offense, Defense, and Total SDPI is parentheses.Baylor-The Bears have moved the ball against everyone they have played...except TCU. The Horned Frogs held the prolific Baylor offense to 10 points and 263 total yards in their 45-10 win.
Colorado-The 3-1 start is a distant memory, and Oklahoma is up next this week. However, the Buffs still have Iowa State, Kansas, and Kansas State remaining on the schedule, so a bowl game is still a possibility.
Iowa State-How do they do it? Despite ranking second to last in both offense and defense, the Cyclones are still very much alive in the bowl picture, and technically in the division race as well.
Kansas-The biggest offseason question may be, 'How the hell did they beat Georgia Tech?'
Kansas State-Probably not that good as their two league wins have come against Iowa State (11th) and Kansas (12th).
Missouri-I'm not buying them as national players yet, but if they can beat Nebraska in Lincoln they can certainly run the table in the regular season.
Nebraska-The offense was humbled by Texas, and the defense was humbled by Oklahoma State.
Oklahoma-Probably the most complete team in the conference, but they blew their chance for a national title at Missouri.
Oklahoma State-Back to the way Mike Gundy likes it. A very good offense, and a very bad defense.
Texas-They remind me of LSU sans the clock management debacles, as a great defense is wasted by an inept offense. An interesting clash of strengths this week against Baylor.
Texas A&M-The numbers seem to think the Aggies are poised for a second half run, but I don't know that I trust Mike Sherman.
Texas Tech-Tuberville comes to town and screws up both the offense and the defense. Two more league losses and the Red Raiders will have their first losing conference campaign since 2000.


Pac-10 Look Who's Back!
Yes, the numbers say the Trojans are still the cream of the crop out west. They will have a chance to prove it Saturday night against the only league member with a shot to bring home the national title, Oregon.
Here are the Pac-10 standings through Saturday's games.
Now here are the SDPI standings. Overall rank in Offense, Defense, and Total SDPI is parentheses.Arizona-The Wildcats are flying under the radar, but at worst will quietly play in their 3rd straight bowl game.
Arizona State-The numbers are a fan, but the Sun Devils likely need a little luck just to get to 6-6.
Cal-The Bears have the league's best defense? Yes. Despite getting eviscerated by Southern Cal (602 yards and 48 points), the Bears have held their other 3 conference foes to 34 total points and 689 total yards.
Oregon-Like their fellow pole-sitters down south (Auburn), the defense is the weak link. It pays to mention, the Ducks were significantly outgained at Arizona State (over 200 yards), but 7 forced turnovers got them the win.
Oregon State-The Beavers are ranked surprisingly low. Boise and TCU certainly hope those numbers don't portend a fall.
Southern Cal-Playing at home, I think the Trojans are a good bet to ensure number one goes down for a 4th consecutive week.
Stanford-Every Pac-10 team besides UCLA has moved the ball against them.
UCLA-At the beginning of October, the future seemed bright. Now the Bruins are just another team that has a hard time moving the ball.
Washington-They don't do anything particularly well, but have an outside shot to go bowling for the first time in 8 years.
Washington State-Believe it or not, they have improved. After being saddled with the worst offense and defense in both 2008 and 2009, the Cougars are merely 50% in the worst of category.

Fab Five: Week VIII

Last week marked my second straight week above .500 and tied with Week II for my best performance thus far at 7-3. That brings my overall record to 37-32-1. We shall try and continue that trend this week. As always, home teams are in Bold.

5 Dogs I Like

Last Week: 4-1
Overall: 17-17-1

Minnesota +9.5 Penn State
The Gophers canned their coach after their loss at Purdue last weekend and appear to be a team content to play out the string. While I don't want to play psychologist and tell you what the mood around the Gopher program is, I will tell you that Penn State should probably not be a near double-digit favorite over any BCS-conference team, particularly on the road. The Nittany Lions currently have the worst offense in the Big 10 and have also not been their usual selves on defense either, ranking a rather disappointing 7th of 11 teams. Minnesota is by no means a good team, but this will not be a cakewalk for a woeful Penn State offense.

Georgia Tech +6 Clemson
Speaking of woeful offenses, hello Clemson Tigers. As you may have noticed in my SDPI post on Tuesday, the Tigers currently rank ahead of only Boston College in ACC in offense, averaging a paltry 276 yards per game in league play. Thankfully for Clemson partisans, their defense is once again among the tops in the conference ranking 3rd behind Florida State and Maryland!? Typically, the games in this series are very close with 7 of the last 10 having been decided by 5 points or less. Look for that trend to continue on Saturday.

LSU +6 Auburn
Based on my SDPI ratings, LSU has on of the nastiest defenses in the nation. They will surely be put to the test Saturday afternoon against an Auburn offense that ranks 2nd in the SEC and boasts a Heisman contender in quarterback Cam Newton. As I have noted on here before, never, and I mean never trust Les Miles as a favorite, particularly a large one. However, with the Mad Hatter lying in the weeds and getting points, LSU appears to be a very safe play.

Indiana +13.5 Illinois
Yes, this same Indiana team that struggled in putting away Arkansas State is primed to give a solid Illinois team a game on the road. This game is a matchup of strength versus strength and weakness versus weakness. Indiana has a very potent offense (4th in the Big 10), while Illinois has a very stout defense (2nd in the Big 10). Meanwhile, the Hoosiers are awful on defense (dead last in the Big 10), while the Illini are second to last in the Big 10 on offense (thank you Penn State). Illinois will probably end up winning and getting one step closer to saving Zook's job, but expect Indiana to hang around 10 points or so.

Arizona State +3.5 Cal
One week after getting embarrassed by their in-state rivals Southern Cal, the Cal Bears return home to face one of the best 3-3 teams in the country. The Sun Devils have lost by a single point at Wisconsin (where Ohio State fell), lost a reasonably close home game to Oregon in which they committed 7 turnovers, lost by 3 points at Oregon State, and beaten Washington by 2 touchdowns on the road. They stand a real shot to win this game outright and strengthen their bowl chances.

Five Faves I Like

Last Week: 3-2
Overall: 20-15

West Virginia -14 Syracuse
Remember all that good will the Orange had last week after upsetting South Florida? Well, it has kind of dissipated. A 31-point home loss to a team with a losing record coming in will do that. The Orange still have an outside shot at getting to a bowl game for the first time since 2004, but they are unlikely to add a crucial win to their resume on Saturday. West Virginia has held every opponent except Marshall (in the Herd's near upset on the season's 2nd Friday) to 276 yards or fewer. Yards and points will be at a premium for a Syracuse team that has not moved the ball well against against BCS-conference foes. West Virginia should win in a romp. Plus, mysterious commenter Miguel has advised me to always go against teams wearing Orange.

Georgia -4 Kentucky
The SDPI numbers absolutely love Georgia, having crowned them the best team in SEC East. The Bulldogs are on fire, having bludgeoned Tennessee and Vanderbilt after losing 4 in a row. Meanwhile, the Kentucky Wildcats are also riding high after posting an upset of then number 10 South Carolina. Despite the win, the Wildcats remain horrendous on defense, ranking ahead of only Vanderbilt in the SEC. Georgia does have the Cocktail Party with Florida coming up, but Georgia is 9-0 in the game immediately preceding Florida under Mark Richt, with 5 of the 9 wins coming by more than 4 points.

Western Michigan -7.5 Akron
This could be the oddest spread on the board this week. The Broncos from Western Michigan are one of the better teams in the MAC, fielding the league's 2nd best offense and 3rd best defense. Sure they took a beating at Notre Dame last week and at Michigan State in their opener, but they should be able to deal with a conference patsy like Akron. The Zips appear to be the worst team in the MAC, losing each of their 3 conference games by at least 11 points and ranking dead last in the conference in offense and second to last in defense. The Broncos should roll in this one.

South Carolina -13 Vanderbilt
Being a Columbia resident, it always amazes me how quickly Gamecock fans believe the sky is falling. Some are even worried their beloved Gamecocks could drop this game at Vandy (they did lose the last time they were here). However, that was a competent Vandy team playing against a South Carolina team desperately seeking an offense. Even without freshman stud Marcus Lattimore, the Gamecocks should be able to move the ball effectively against the worst defense in the SEC. Oh, and did I mention that the Commodores also have the league's worst offense as well? It will be very hard for Vandy to score more than 10 points in this game. Thus, 24 should enough to allow the Gamecocks to cover, and some Gamecock partisans to return to a sense of normalcy.

Northern Illinois -9.5 Central Michigan
Call this a changing of the guard game if you will. The Chippewas from Central Michigan have won 3 of the last 4 MAC West (and overall conference) titles. They have also beaten the Huskies from Northern Illinois for 3 consecutive seasons. However, this season, the MAC appears to belong to Northern Illinois. The Huskies currently boast the best offense and defense in the conference and are unbeaten at 3-0 in league play. Meanwhile, the Chippewas still have a dynamic offense despite the loss of Dan LeFevour (the poor man's Tim Tebow), but are atrocious on defense (11th in the MAC). They are also just 2-5 through 7 games and in danger of posting their first losing season since 2004. The Huskies should hasten Central Michigan's descent toward loserville with a comfortable win on Saturday.

Mid-Season SDPI: ACC and SEC

As any regular reader of this blog will note (thanks Dad), SDPI is a mainstay of the offseason posts. What is SDPI you ask? SDPI is simply a measure of how a given team performed gaining and preventing opponents from gaining yardage versus the conference average. For my SDPI ratings I only look at conference games. I do this primarily because non-conference games vary greatly in strength among teams. In addition, conference games usually come after a team has played a few non-conference games and has had an opportunity to iron out the kinks and show themselves for what they really are. The SDPI numbers are also key components of my projection system. With that in mind, I decided to take a midseason look at how the SDPI numbers are stacking up for each conference. Since a good number of ACC and SEC teams have played half of their conference schedule already, we'll begin with those two conferences. Next week, we'll take a look at the Big 10 and Big 12 and perhaps the Pac-10. The following week, we'll examine which WAC team has the best shot at knocking off Boise and preview what should be a monumental showdown in the Mountain West (TCU at Utah). Sometime either that week or later, we'll also take a peak at the Big East, MAC, and Conference USA. The numbers, at least for some teams will shock and amaze you.

ACC Guess Who's Back?
The Florida State Seminoles appear to be back to their 90's form under Jimbo Fisher. They are 4-0 in the conference for the first time since 2003 and are in prime position to win the division title for only the second time since the league expanded to 12 teams in 2005.
Here are the ACC standings through Saturday's games.Now here are the SDPI standings. Overall rank in Offense, Defense, and Total SDPI is parentheses.Boston College-The Eagles have a terrible offense. There's no sugar coating it. However, they remain a team to watch in the second half thanks to their defense. Despite facing the top-3 offenses in the league (NC State, Virginia Tech, and Florida State) in their first 3 games, the Eagles still rate out as above average defensively.
Clemson-Speaking of terrible offenses, think Clemson misses CJ Spiller? The defense, as always, remains good.
Duke-Cutcliffe continues to produce an above-average offense at Duke, but the defense is nowhere to be found.
Florida State-What a difference a year and a new defensive coordinator make. After finishing dead last in the conference in defense last season under outgoing coordinator Mickey Andrews, the Seminoles are tops in the conference under Mark Stoops.
Georgia Tech-Al Groh has not yet had the desired effect on the defense.
Maryland-Maryland is the only ACC team to have played only two conference games. Take their numbers with a grain of salt. Interestingly, they were significantly outgained by Duke in a close home win and significantly outgained Clemson in a blowout road loss. We should know a lot more about this team after they visit Boston College on Saturday.
Miami-Not quite as dominant as the pundits had hoped. Still, the 'Canes get division pole-sitter Virginia Tech at home
North Carolina-A nice 2-1 league start, particularly with all the suspensions and distractions, but those number do not portend contention.
NC State-The best offense in the league. If not for special teams and turnover struggles against Virginia Tech, next Thursday's game against Florida State would have been for sole possession of first place.
Virginia-Somehow a worse defense than Wake Forest (if that's even possible).
Virginia Tech-The offense has been a pleasant surprise, but the defense is surprisingly low (8th in the conference).
Wake Forest-Based on the eye test, this is the worst defense in the conference. Awful tackling and pass defense are a good recipe for missing out on a bowl.


SEC The Smoldering Ruins of the SEC East
SEC East teams have won just a pair of games in 12 tries against their conference opponents out west. South Carolina famously upset Alabama ten days ago, and Vanderbilt knocked off Ole Miss (on the road no less) in the season's third week. Resident division overlord Florida is already winless against the SEC West, and will not get a chance to break their streak unless they manage to win this battle of attrition and get to the SEC Championship Game.
Here are the SEC standings through Saturday's games.Now here are the SDPI standings. Overall rank in Offense, Defense, and Total SDPI is parentheses.Alabama-The offense rates surprisingly low considering nearly everyone, including the reigning Heisman winner, returned in 2010.
Arkansas-The offense is once again the team's strength, but the defense is only marginally improved from their 12th place showing last year.
Auburn-The Battering Cam leads another great SEC offense, but one would think their defense will let them down before its over.
Florida-The offense has never been below average in Urban Meyer's tenure, but perhaps the losses of coordinator Dan Mullen following the 2008 season and Tebow this past season have brought about a perfect storm in Gainesville.
Georgia-Definitely the most shocking numbers SDPI spit out. However, the Dogs have dominated their last 2 opponents, and their losses to Arkansas and Mississippi State were close. If they can win the Cocktain Party, their division hopes are very much alive.
Kentucky-Terrible as always on defense, but the offense is enjoying its best showing since Andre Woodson was under center.
LSU-Clock management and rotating quarterbacks be damned, this defense is scary good. As far as I am concerned they are the division and by extension the conference favorite.
Mississippi State-Not quite as good as you might think. In fact, the offense has taken a step back from last season. However, barring a major upset by UAB, the Bulldogs will be bowl eligible come Saturday night. Kudos to Dan Mullen.
Ole Miss-An average team that will probably be kicking themselves for losing to Jacksonville State, as that loss will probably keep them out of the postseason.
South Carolina-Maybe Ellis Johnson should return some of that massive salary. When a defensive coordinator makes more than most mid-major head coaches, the defense should be elite, not below average. Still, if they take care of business against Vandy and Tennessee, the battle in Gainesville will be for their first division title. The Arkansas game won't matter in essence because it is not a division game, and Florida already has 3 losses.
Tennessee-They don't do anything particularly well, but thankfully Memphis and Vanderbilt are still on the schedule.
Vanderbilt-Since I live in Columbia, I peruse the local news affiliate websites. There is a ridiculous article on one today about how Vandy controls its own destiny in the SEC East race, and with a win versus South Carolina Saturday would be alone in first place. While certainly factually true, it fails to mention how awful Vanderbilt is. Despite already owning a league win, this year's team may actually be worse than last year's (winless in the conference) on a down-to-down basis. I'd take the bet that the Commodores don't win another SEC game this season.

Fab Five: Week VII

Your humble narrator did a fine job of getting off the mat after the debacle that was Week V. I finished 6-4, with duplicate 3-2 marks for both dogs and faves to bring my yearly record back above .500 (30-29-1). Hopefully, we can continue that trend this week. As always, home teams are in Bold.

5 Dogs I Like

Last Week: 3-2
Overall: 13-16-1

Boston College +22 Florida State
Since being embarrassed in Norman in Week II, the 'Noles have looked like the 'Noles of old. They have outscored their last 4 opponents by a combined 103 points en route to opening ACC play with a 3-0 record. The 'Noles have an excellent shot of being 4-0 after this game, but methinks it will be closer than most expect. For starters, Boston College still has a very good defense, albeit, one that is paired with a poor offense. During their 3-game losing streak, the Eagles have still managed to hold Virginia Tech and NC State to their second lowest yardage outputs and Notre Dame to their lowest yardage output of the season. In addition, this game is the dreaded sandwich game for the 'Noles, coming directly between their two biggest road conference games of the year (Miami and NC State).

Missouri +3.5 Texas A&M
The Missouri Tigers may be the most under-appreciated 5-0 team in 2010. The Tigers own victories over what has turned out to be a solid Illinois team, a likely bowl-eligible San Diego State team, and a shut out over a Colorado team that had upset Georgia the week before. The Tigers travel to College Station for their first road game in an attempt to keep their unbeaten record intact. The Aggies come in losers or consecutive games, at Oklahoma State and versus Arkansas. The Aggies have seen their defense improve from the putrid numbers they put up last season, but have been victimized by turnovers, losing 14 in their past 3 games. This game appears to be a toss-up, so take the team getting points here.

Pitt +1 Syracuse
It's been a long time since Syracuse was favored in a conference game. How long? The Orange were last favored against a league foe when they were 1-point favorites (eerie isn't it?) over Connecticut in November of 2006. The Orange won that game 20-14 to move their record to 4-7. If they win here, the results would be much more significant. A win would give them 5 wins for the first time since 2004 and move them within one game of bowl eligibility for the first time since that same season. While the Orange have impressive defensive statistics, ranking 15th in total defense, it pays to mention that 3 of their games have been played against Akron (the worst team in the MAC) and two IAA schools (Colgate and Maine). In their one game against a competent DI offense (sorry South Florida), the Washington Huskies rolled up 467 yards and 41 points against them. Pitt is likely the nation's best team with a losing record (with a pair of those losses coming at Utah and against Miami). Look for them to lose that distinction on Saturday when they get back to .500.

UTEP +2.5 UAB
Don't look now, but UTEP is just one win away from being bowl eligible for the first time since 2005. Now the Miners have not exactly beaten a who's who of teams (the 4 IA teams they have beaten have combined for just 3 wins themselves), they have won most of those games by a healthy margin. Not surprisingly, UTEP does most of their damage on the offensive end, ranking 32nd in the nation in total offense. Meanwhile, UAB has either played a nailbiter or been blown out. They have lost a one-point game, won a one-point game, and lost a 3-point game in overtime. In their other 2 games, they have lost by 21 and 35. This one will probably be close, but the Miners should put enough points on the board to win a shootout.

Army +7 Vs Rutgers
The Black Knights from Army are just 2 wins away from being bowl eligible for the first time since 1996! And with a game against VMI coming up after this one, all they should require is one win in their other 5 games to return to a bowl. The Black Knights have actually rushed better through their first 6 games than their more highly regarded brethren at the Naval Academy. Army is averaging 274 yards per game on the ground (9th in the country), while the Midshipmen are averaging 260 (1oth in the country). The Black Knights have won their games on the strength of that rushing attack and on the backs of a +12 turnover margin (tops in the country). The Black Knights have yet to throw an interception and have only lost 4 fumbles. While fumble recovery is random, so their turnover margin in their final 6 games should decline, the Knights will probably not throw many interceptions, as they have attempted only 55 passes in 6 games. Their opponent, Rutgers, has been very iffy against IA competition. All their games have come down to the wire, with the Scarlet Knights beating Florida International and Connecticut by 5 and 3 points respectively, and losing to North Carolina and Tulane by 4 and 3 points. The Scarlet Knights finally got their offense in gear against Connecticut last week, gaining a season high 453 yards. They'll need to do that for a few more weeks in order to convince me that was not just a one game fluke. This game is at a neutral site (the New Meadowlands), and Army is hungry. Look for the Black Knights to give the Scarlet Knights all they can handle.

Five Faves I Like

Last Week: 3-2
Overall: 17-13

NC State -7 East Carolina
East Carolina is already 3-0 in Conference USA, but against BCS conference competition, the Pirates have fallen to both Virginia Tech and North Carolina by a combined 47 points. The Pirates home stadium will be rocking thanks to a visit from their in-state brethren, but the East Carolina defense (if you can call it that) should be shredded easily by Russell Wilson.

Southern Cal -2.5 Cal
Southern Cal is a hard-luck 1-2 in the Pac-10 after consecutive last second losses. Don't expect too much sympathy from their league brethren. The next team looking to kick the Trojans while they are down is the Cal Bears. Cal has not beaten the Trojans since their memorable overtime win in 2003, that ultimately kept the Trojans out of the BCS Championship Game. The Trojans are just plain nasty on offense, averaging 476 yards per game and 7.2 yards per play! Unfortunately, Monte Kiffin has not been able to do much with the defense. The Trojans are allowing 429 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play. Still, with the homefield advantage, the Trojans should be able to win this one by at least a field goal.

Baylor -1 Colorado
Betting on Baylor to win a Big 12 road game would appear to be folly. The Bears have won 3 Big 12 road games. In the history of the conference! Amazingly, one of their road wins occurred the last time they visited Boulder in 2006. Baylor does not have much of a defense, but if there is one thing they do have, its team speed on offense. The last truly speedy offensive team the Buffs faced was the Cal Bears in Week II. The result? A 52-7 Cal win. The Bears won't win that easily, but they should take care of business.

Indiana -11.5 Arkansas State
Indiana was humbled last week by Ohio State, but if there is one thing the Hoosiers have proven they can do this season, its put up points against non-elite defenses. In their other 4 games against non-Ohio State defenses, the Hoosiers have put up at least 35 points, and 360 yards in each game. The Red Wolves will move the ball and put up some points against the Hoosiers, but Indiana should win by at least 2 touchdowns.

Iowa -3.5 Michigan
Let's see. Last week against the best defense they have faced all season, the dynamic Michigan attack gained just 377 yards (nearly 100 yards below their previous season low). This week they face a defense that is not merely good, but elite. Iowa has not allowed more than 366 yards in any game this season, and has only allowed its 5 opponents to score 4 offensive touchdowns. In their lone loss, Arizona scored on a kickoff and fumble return to account for 14 of their 34 points. Michigan will have to have some opportunistic defensive or special teams scores to have any chance of winning this game.

Fab Five: Week VI

I hit rock bottom last week, managing only a 3-7 record. This brings me one game under .500 on the season (24-25-1). I humbly apologize to anyone and everyone who uses my insight to make wagers, foolish as that may be. The good news is things are unlikely to get worse. As always, home teams are in Bold.

5 Dogs I Like

Last Week: 1-4
Overall: 10-14-1

Clemson +3 North Carolina
Clemson burned me last week when I picked them to cover (and potentially win outright) at home versus Miami. For that matter, North Carolina burned me too when I picked East Carolina to cover what I believed was a rather large number against them. The optimist in me sees a Clemson team that played terribly against Miami, yet had they converted a late 4th and 1, could easily have won the game. Meanwhile, North Carolina put up 42 points, and rang up 444 yards against East Carolina. However, the Pirates entered the game allowing 42 points and 480 yards per game, so if anything, the Tar Heels played a little below average. Since this game is not at Noon, methinks Clemson has an excellent chance to win.

Minnesota +22 Wisconsin
If we learned anything from last weekends heartbreaking loss to Northwestern, its that Tim Brewster's charges will play hard for him, even if the writing for his ouster in on the wall. The Gophers nearly upset the Wildcats and have been pretty competitive in all their losses (never losing by more than 11 with an average loss margin of 6.5 points). Meanwhile, Wisconsin was somewhat exposed as a Big 10 pretender losing at Michigan State. Against the IA creampuffs they have faced (UNLV and San Jose State), the Badgers have only won those games by 16.5 points per game. Even if Wisconsin statistically dominates this game, the type of team they are (65% of their plays are runs), likely means the final margin will be relatively close.

Wake Forest +4 Navy
This is hardly a good Wake Forest team, but an opportunity for a home upset of the Naval Academy is very real. For starters, the Deacons just finished playing against a team with a similar offense (Georgia Tech). Wake held the Jackets to 339 total yards and 4.9 yards per play (their lowest outputs in both categories on the season). Secondly, this appears to be one of the weaker Navy teams of recent memory. The Midshipmen have already lost to Maryland and Air Force, and have struggled to put away Georgia Southern and Louisiana Tech. Navy is averaging only 17.5 points per game, which should help keep a struggling Wake Forest offense in the game.

Pitt +6.5 Notre Dame
I don't know that any team has fallen further from their preseason projections than the Pitt Panthers. Widely regarded as the Big East favorite, the Panthers are now nearly a touchdown underdog to a Notre Dame team that has a pair of wins over Purdue and Boston College on its resume. Not that Pitt has any spectacular wins, but the Panthers were competitive in a road loss at undefeated Utah. Plus, if you are of the opinion that Miami is one of the nation's best teams, their shellacking at the hands of the Canes is hardly reason to think they stand no chance against the Irish. Pitt may not win this game, but it should be competitive and the Panthers stand a real shot at covering.

UCLA +7.5 California
This line appears to be an over-reaction to UCLA's close win over Washington State last weekend (for the Cougars, any game they keep within 30 is close). To me it seems like a perfect case of riding high off the Texas win and looking ahead to a conference showdown with in-state rival Cal. Speaking of the Bears, in their last game, they led Arizona from wire-to-wire before losing on a late touchdown pass 10-9. But, if you will remember, just a week before, the Bears were gashed by a mid-major team than runs the Pistol (Nevada). Care to guess what offense UCLA is running now? The Bruins have a real shot to win this game straight up and totally alter the course of their season.

Five Faves I Like

Last Week: 2-3
Overall: 14-11

Missouri -11.5 Colorado
Missouri has won 4 straight against the Buffs, with their average win in that span coming by 34.3 points (smallest win being 13 points). The Buffs are 3-1 and looking to save Dan Hawkins' job before bolting to the Pac-10 (Pac-12). However, Colorado has only outgained their opponents by 44 yards in those 4 games, and are actually averaging nearly a full yard less per play (5.0 to 5.8). Plus, in their only true road game to date, the Buffs were embarrassed by Cal 52-7. Methinks this one will not be that bad, but Missouri should still win easily.

Florida -6.5 LSU
The Gators have won the last 2 in this series by 30 and 10 points respectively. They have won the last 2 in Gainesville by 13 and 30. LSU has been skating by their opponents by the thinnest of margins thanks to an inept offense that has made a few timely plays and an elite defense and special teams unit. The Tigers rank 6th nationally in total defense, allowing a mere 247 yards per game. However, Florida has also been pretty solid defensively, allowing only 291 yards per game. Florida has also played better offensively after their opening debacle against Miami of Ohio (212 total yards). The Gators have a comparable defense, a better offense, an immensely better coach, and the homefield. They should win by at least a touchdown.

Northern Illinois -3 Temple
Could this be a potential MAC Championship Game preview? The Huskies and Owls have certainly looked like the class of the MAC in the early going. Both teams have combined for 3 losses, but each loss has come on the road against a team from a BCS conference. Northern Illinois lost at Iowa State and Illinois, while Temple fell at Penn State. Both teams also own wins amongst BCS-conference foes. Northern Illinois won by 11 at Minnesota and Temple won by 14 at home against Connecticut. Both teams are strong defensively, especially for MAC schools. Temple currently allows 368 yards per game and Northern Illinois is right behind them allowing just 371 yards per game. However, Northern Illinois has been much stronger offensively, averaging nearly 100 more yards per game. The Huskies should be able to win by at least a touchdown at home.

UTEP -9.5 Rice
Don't read too much into UTEP's misleading win over New Mexico last week. The Miners 'only' beat the lowly Lobos by 18 (38-20), but 2 of the New Mexico's touchdowns came via a bloacked field goal and kickoff return. The Miners outgained the Lobos by nearly 200 yards, and the final score could have, and probably should have been much worse. Meanwhile, Rice has lost 3 straight games, and the Owls have given up at least 30 points in each game. Ironically, their best defensive performance (yardage-wise) came in the opener against Texas when they allowed just 369 yards. In their past 4 games, the Owls have allowed an average of 450 yards per game. UTEP should continue the trend of putting up at least 30 on the Owls and win by at least 10 points.

Miami -6 Florida State
This one has all the makings of another Florida State road struggle. The general public seems to have forgotten how bad the 'Noles crapped the bed the last time they played a good team on the road. Certainly, Florida State has dominated their last 3 games against BYU, Wake Forest, and Virginia, but realistically, only one of those teams will be playing postseason football. It wouldn't surprise me if all 3 are home for the holidays. The 'Noles will encounter a different beast in arch-rival Miami. Look for the 'Canes to roll here and cement their status as ACC front-runner.

Fab Five: Week V

Last week was the epitome of mediocrity as I went 5-5. I finally had some luck picking dogs (3-2), but made up for it by struggling with favorites (2-3). This .500 week brings my yearly mark to 21-18-1. Here's hoping for another winning week. As always, home teams are in Bold.

5 Dogs I Like

Last Week: 3-2
Overall: 9-10-1

Virginia +7 Florida State
Virginia represents one of the greater unknowns in college football. They have crushed a pair of IAA (or if you prefer, FCS) teams at home by a combined score of 82-20 and have also competed admirably in their lone game against a living, breathing opponent. In their cross-country trip to the golden coast to take on the Trojans, they held Southern Cal to their lowest offensive output of the season (329 yards and 14 points). The Trojans averaged 515 yards and 38.7 points in their other 3 games. This game also marks Florida State's first game outside of Tallahassee since their ugly foray into Norman, Oklahoma. With home wins over Samford, BYU, and Wake Forest, the Seminoles also lack any groundbreaking wins. With the Cavs catching 7 points at home, they are a very good play this week.

Clemson +3.5 Miami
Clemson has had a week to lick and bandage their wounds after a heartbreaking loss on the plains in Auburn. The Tigers acquitted themselves very well in that game, and could easily have won. Now their second season begins as they open conference play with a Miami team fresh off a beating of an overmatched Pitt squad. Miami has had trouble in their conference road tilts the past 2 seasons, going just 4-4 with no win coming by more than points (won by 18 at Duke in 2008), and only one win coming over a team that finished with a winning record (38-34 over a Florida State team that finished 7-6 in 2009). Clemson is likely the class of the Atlantic Division, and could be the best team in the entire ACC. Look for the Tigers to pull off the straight up win on Saturday.

Western Michigan +3 Idaho
The Vandals from Idaho have developed a nice little inter-sectional rivalry, not with one team per se, but with an entire conference. Since 2007, the Vandals have played 4 games with teams from the MAC (3 scheduled and one in the Humanitarian Bowl last season). The Vandals have completed a home and home with Northern Illinois (losing at home in 2007 and winning on the road in 2009). They played Bowling Green in the aforementioned Humanitarian Bowl, winning on a successful 2-point conversion. This game will mark the end of a home and home with the Broncos. The Vandals lost to the Broncos at home in 2008, and now make the return trip to Kalamazoo. The Vandals continue their MAC sojourn in 2011 and 2012 with a home and home with Bowling Green. Now, back to this game. The Vandals are an interesting team, having blown out a IAA school (North Dakota State) and one of the worst teams in IA (UNLV) by a combined 68 points. They also hung tough with Nebraska in Lincoln. However, in their most recent game, they fell to one of the worst teams in IA (Colorado State). Meanwhile, Western Michigan has had 2 weeks to prepare for this game after losing their conference opener to Toledo. Western Michigan substantially outgained the Rockets (416 to 268), but lost thanks to a -4 turnover margin. With Idaho having to travel several a long distance and Western Michigan fresh off a bye, this spread should probably be reversed. Look for the Broncos to pull out an outright upset Saturday.

East Carolina +13.5 North Carolina
I'm a little confused by this spread. North Carolina has not exactly set the world on fire offensively this season. True, they are better than they were last season, but the defense has gotten worse (that will happen when suspensions are so rampant). Meanwhile, East Carolina appears to have shifted from a defense-first team under Skip Holtz to one that will be involved in a great deal of shootouts. Games involving the Pirates have averaged a total of 84 points this season. In their championship winning seasons of 2008 and 2009, games involving the Pirates averaged 44.5 and 48.9 points respectively. This should be an entertaining game with the backdoor open just wide enough for the Pirates to sneak through.

Tennessee +16 LSU
Just as I predicted last week, LSU once again failed to cover a rather large number, jumping out to a 17-point lead before posting a rather ugly 6-point win as a 9-point favorite. Look for more of the same here. LSU is by far the superior team, but for whatever reason, Tennessee is likely to hang around and cover this number.

Five Faves I Like

Last Week: 2-3
Overall: 12-8

Oklahoma -4 Vs Texas
Neither the Sooners nor the Longhorns looked particularly dominant last weekend. Texas lost at home to a double-digit underdog with a prehistoric passing game more suited for Amos Alonzo Stagg than Rick Neuheisel. Meanwhile, Oklahoma needed a late onside kick recovery and a plethora of red zone turnovers to eke by a team that lost by a pair of touchdowns to Fresno State. Needless to say, for the second year in a row, the Red River Rivalry is not the marquee game on the Saturday schedule. In fact, both of these teams may be looking on as Nebraska hoists the Big 12 Championship trophy in early December. But I digress. Oklahoma has hardly looked dominant this season, but after 4 weeks, its clear Texas is in a rebuilding mode. Albeit a rebuilding mode than will still likely win 9 games, but rebuilding nonetheless. Look for the Sooners to win comfortably here (10 points or so) and position themselves as the pole sitter in the Big 12 South.

Maryland -7.5 Duke
After a marginally successful season in 2009 (by Duke standards, an incredibly successful one), the Blue Devils appear to have taken a step back in 2010. They have lost 3 in a row after opening with an easy win over Elon, including an embarrassing home loss to Army. The margin was only 14, but the Cadets led 35-7 in the second half. The Blue Devils do not even pretend to play defense, giving up an average of 466 yards per game. Even if we remove the bludgeoning Alabama put on them, they are still allowing 413 yards per game. The Terps have followed up their opening weekend upset of Navy by pounding a IAA school (Morgan State), losing somewhat competitively to the best team in the Big East (West Virginia), and beating a Sun Belt school (Florida International) by 2 touchdowns. Remember though, this is the same Florida International that nearly Rutgers and Texas A&M (losing by 5 and 7 points respectively). Just giving slightly more than a touchdown at home makes Maryland one of the safest plays of the week.

Toledo -3.5 Wyoming
Toledo has built their 3-1 record on the strength of a fantastic turnover margin (+7 in their last 3 games, all wins), so they may end up not being quite the MAC contender they appear to be. The defense is the strength of the team, holding opponents to only 372 yards per game. If we remove the opening loss to Arizona, the Rockets have allowed only 323 yards per game, very good numbers for a MAC outfit. That defense should be good enough to put the clamps on the Cowboys, a team that has yet to gain more than 355 yards in any game (did it against IAA Southern Utah).

Southern Cal -10 Washington
Can you say revenge? While Lane Kiffin was not on the sidelines last season when the Huskies upset the Trojans, a lot of his players were. Motivation is certainly a factor to weigh here, especially with the spread below 2 touchdowns. Outside of their close scrape with Virginia, the Trojans have won their other 3 games by at least 11 points, and all 3 have come on the road. Returning home should allow the Trojans to put up some big offensive numbers, particularly against a team that lost to what has been revealed to be a poor BYU team in their only road game.

UTEP -15 New Mexico
Oh how the once proud Lobos have fallen. Ritchie Valens and Lou Diamond Phillips would be so appalled. New Mexico has not come close than 35 points against any of their foes this season. This is of course on the heels of a 1-11 debacle where the lone win came by 2 points. New Mexico has been outgained by nearly 1000 yards in 4 games and they have been outscored by 184 points. UTEP has one of the best offense in Conference USA, and should be able to run wild on Los Lobos.

Fab Five: Week IV

After the lows of Week I and the highs of Week II, Week III somewhere in the middle. I managed a winning week thanks to Tennessee's push against Florida (5-4-1) to run my overall record to 16-13-1. However, aside from the Tennessee push, I only got one dog right. Thus far, I am performing much better picking favorites than I am picking dogs. Keep that in mind if you are foolish enough to gamble your hard-earned money on these picks. As always, home teams are in Bold.

5 Dogs I Like

Last Week: 1-3-1
Overall: 6-8-1

Arkansas State +11 Troy
If they have done nothing else this season, at the very least, the Troy Trojans have provided their fans with entertaining football games. Each of their 3 contests thus far have been in doubt in the final minutes. In their opener, they manged to hold off Bowling Green 30-27. In their second game, they traveled to Oklahoma State and nearly upset the Cowboys before falling 41-38. Then last week, they fell to UAB on a Hail Mary touchdown pass on the game's final play (lost 34-33). The Over/Under on this game currently sits at 63.5, so the oddsmakers rightly expect this to be a high scoring affair. Arkansas State is averaging 28 points per game and allowing 34.3 (partly inflated by their trip to Auburn), while Troy is averaging 33.7 points per game and allowing 34. Arkansas State should be able to move the ball well enough to keep this one relatively tight with the resident beasts of the Sun Belt.

Notre Dame +5 Stanford
Call it the Wake Forest Effect. Stanford looked almost unstoppable on offense last week in dropping 68 on the hapless Deacon defense. However, let's not forget that just a week earlier, the Demon Deacons also made Duke look like an offensive juggernaut when the gave up 48 points in a narrow win over the Blue Devils. Traveling a few time zones east and facing a defense that does not belong to Wake Forest will make the Stanford offense face its first bit of adversity this season.

West Virginia +9 LSU
As head coach as LSU, Les Miles is 27-36-4 ATS (including 2-1 this season). The Tigers have covered consecutive games after failing to cover the inflated line for their opener (+7). Only one other time during his tenure has LSU covered more than 2 games in a row. They covered the final 2 games of 2006 (at Arkansas and versus Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl) and the first 3 games of 2007 (at Mississippi State and home versus Virginia Tech and Middle Tennessee State). If there has ever been a time to double down against LSU, this it.

New Mexico +11 UNLV
If TCU or Utah finishes undefeated and fails to qualify for the BCS National Championship Game, they may well have these 2 teams (and Colorado State) to blame for dragging down their strength of schedule. New Mexico has yet to play a competitive game, losing to Oregon by 72, Texas Tech by 35, and Utah by 42 (with the latter 2 coming at home!). Meanwhile, UNLV has lost to Wisconsin by 20, Utah 28, and Idaho by 23. The winner of this game will have a leg up on getting out of the Mountain West basement and with Colorado State remaining on the schedule, could be staring at multiple league wins. Either way, this will probably be the closest game either team has played thus far.

Arizona State +12 Oregon
Arizona State nearly upset the Badgers in Madison last week, and as a reward for their troubles, they draw perhaps the hottest offense in the nation. Meanwhile, Oregon continued their buzzsawing ways, trouncing Portland State (IAA) 69-0. Arizona State proved last week they are more than capable of staying in games with their offense and special teams. Look for this one to be very close and potentially end the Ducks run at perfection.

Five Faves I Like

Last Week: 4-1
Overall: 10-5

Oklahoma -15 Cincinnati
Technically, this game is at Paul Brown Stadium, and while that means its not at Cincinnati's true homefield, its pretty darn close. Oklahoma endured the typical letdown game last weekend, narrowly edging the Air Force Falcons 27-24. Oklahoma proved a week before they are more than capable crushing quality opponents when they dropped Florida State by 30. Going into their first road test of the year, motivation should not be a factor (as it may have been in close wins over Utah State and Air Force). In addition, Cincinnati should not be much of a factor either. The Bearcats have fallen precipitously from the heights they reached last season, looking for all the world like they have no concept of pass protection in road loss to Fresno State and NC State (giving up 13 sacks in those games). This one could get ugly quickly.

Florida -14 Kentucky
This line perplexes me. Last week Florida was 14-point favorite on the road at Tennessee. This week they are a 14-point favorite at home against Kentucky. While Kentucky will almost assuredly return to the postseason, their resume thus far is iffy at best. Their wins have come against Louisville (on the road) and at home versus Western Kentucky and Akron (2 teams without wins). The Wildcats have looked like worldbeaters on offense, averaging nearly 500 yards per game. However, Florida will provide a much stiffer test. The Gators may not have the offensive firepower (yet) they featured with Tim Tebow under center, they still possess one of the game's best defenses. This is another game that could get ugly quickly.

Duke -6.5 Army
No team will be happier to return to the field on Saturday than the Duke Blue Devils. One week after facing off against Alabama, the Devils will likely feel like they are on vacation facing Army. While Duke struggled mightily moving the ball against Alabama, they should have enough offensive firepower to beat Army by a touchdown at home.

Baylor -7.5 Rice
Last week, Northwestern rolled into Houston as a touchdown favorite to face the Owls and left with a 17-point win. I would expect Baylor to have similar success against the Owls. Baylor was humbled by TCU last week, but Rice ain't TCU. The Bears will get back to their winning ways with a comfortable road win.

Arizona -7 California
Fresh off their biggest win since 1998, the Wildcats now begin their Pac-10 season, and quest for their first Rose Bowl bid at home against the Cal Bears. Cal was humbled at Nevada last week, despite moving the ball particularly well, thanks to turnovers that directly led to Nevada scores. Arizona is a much better team than the Wolfpack (perhaps the best in the Pac-10), so they should win by at least a touchdown here.

Fab Five: Week III

Week II was infinitely more kind to your humble prognosticator. I went 7-3 and raised my overall record to just north of .500 at 11-9. We'll see if I can continue my winning ways this week. As always, home teams are in Bold.

5 Dogs I Like

Last Week: 4-1
Overall: 5-5

Kansas +5.5 Southern Miss
Kansas surprised a lot of folks and severely damaged the ACC's reputation by winning as a 14-point underdog against Georgia Tech last week. This week they try to avoid becoming a BCS conference scalp for Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles used to be known as giant-killers, but they have gone just 2-9 against BCS conference teams since 2005, with the wins coming against low-wattage outfits from NC State in 2006 (3-9 record) and Virginia last season (3-9 record). Both incidentally did come at home, so they have that going for them. Still the Golden Eagles do not have a good track record of beating decent BCS conference opponents. I expect that trend to continue on Friday night.

Arizona State +14 Wisconsin
If nothing else, Arizona State has started the 2010 season by gaining confidence. Their first 2 opponents were IAA schools (Portland State and Northern Arizona). The Sun Devils were not challenged in either game, winning both by a combined 66 points. Meanwhile, Wisconsin has also opened against a pair of light weights, albeit IA lightweights in UNLV and San Jose State. Interestingly, Wisconsin has failed to cover rather large numbers in both games, beating UNLV by 20 and San Jose State 13. Wisconsin will almost certainly emerge victorious from this game, but the Sun Devils are an under the radar Pac-10 team that could end up bowl eligible after consecutive losing seasons. For this reason, its hard to best against them getting 2 touchdowns.

Baylor +21.5 TCU
I don't think the Horned Frogs are in any danger of losing this game, and with it their hopes of a national championship. However, the Bears have one of the games best playmakers in quarterback Robert Griffin. TCU has speed on defense, but Mr. Griffin will likely be the fastest, quickest, most athletic quarterback they face this season. Unfortunately, for the Bears, TCU should be able to move the ball at will against them, thus meaning Mr. Griffin will likely have to play a perfect game for Baylor to have any shot of actually winning. He won't, but the Bears should stay within 3 touchdowns.

Tennessee +14 Florida
The Vols were crushed by an Oregon avalanche in the second half last week. After playing the Ducks even for a half, a barrage of turnovers and special teams errors allowed the Ducks to lay the lumber in the second half. While Florida may be a better overall team than the Ducks, their offense has not been as dynamic this season. Miami of Ohio was able to hold them in check, as was South Florida until the Gator defense turned the game with a multitude of turnovers. As long as Tennessee avoids the turnover gaffe that did them in against Oregon, and I think they will with a very conservative gameplan, they should be able to hang with the Gators.

North Texas +6 Army
Sooner or later, one would think North Texas could catch a break. After going 0-6 in games decided by 7 points or less last season, the Mean Green dropped a winnable home game against Rice by a single point. The good news for North Texas is that the offense is humming, gaining over 400 yards against both Rice and Clemson. Unfortunately, the defense has been very permissive as well, allowing 774 yards in both games. If the Mean Green can avoid the turnover bugaboo, they should win their first road game since opening the 2009 season upsetting Ball State.

Five Faves I Like

Last Week: 3-2
Overall: 6-4

Florida State -10 BYU
Florida State is akin to an undervalued stock. They were humbled last week in Norman, Oklahoma, a place where Bob Stoops has lost just twice in over a decade coaching the Sooners. While their game flew under the radar, the Cougars were also humbled on the road, losing to Air Force 35-14. The Cougars managed only 309 yards against the Falcons, including just 88 through the air. Defending the pass is Florida State's biggest weakness, but with a pair of first year starters, including freshman Jake Heaps, under center, the Cougars are ill-equipped to gash the Seminoles through the air.

Houston -3 UCLA
The Bruins have looked like they are intent on giving Washington State a run for their money at the bottom of the Pac-10 in 2010. OK, maybe not that bad, but they have struggled, particularly on offense on the early going. Houston rolled over UTEP last Friday despite losing all-world quarterback Case Keenum to a concussion. Keenum is day-to-day, whatever that means. Even without him, the Cougars should be able to win by more than a field goal if running back Bryce Beall, who is averaging over 10 yards a rush, can do his best Daniel Thomas impression. Thomas, you may remember, rang up over 230 yards against the Bruins over Labor Day weekend.

Indiana -12 Western Kentucky
I was amazed when I saw the Hoosiers were giving less than a pair of touchdowns at Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers are currently riding a 22-game losing streak and have opened this campaign with a pair of defeats to Nebraska and Kentucky by 39 and 35 points respectively. I know this game is at Western Kentucky, but if Indiana has any pulse whatsoever, they should win by at least 20.

Northwestern -6.5 Rice
The Owls hung tough in their opener against Texas, losing by just 17. However, Rice has seemingly had issues on defense since the game of football was invented, and facing a quarterback as accurate as Dan Persa (just 6 incompletions in 44 attempts on the season) does not bode well for them. Rice may be able to hang with Northwestern, by putting up some scores of their own, but I doubt they can stay within a touchdown.

Oklahoma State -7 Tulsa
This small number is a bit of an overreaction to Oklahoma State's narrow escape (41-38) versus Troy last week. Despite the narrow margin, the Cowboys outgained the Trojans by over 150 yards and have put up over 1000 yards of total offense in their first 2 contests. Tulsa has also gained over 1000 yards in their first 2 games (1125 to be exact), but have also allowed 841 yards. This game figures to be very high-scoring and exciting, but look for the Cowboys to pull away and win by about 10 points.