2011 Big East Preview

We have crossed the 50 day threshold. Exactly seven weeks, or 49 days, is all that separates us from for real football. Today, Statistically Speaking tells you how the Big East will shake out in 2011. To decide how much you want to trust these projections, here's the link to last year's Big East preview.


Skip Holtz and the Art of Winning Ugly
In his relatively brief head coaching career, Skip Holtz has been pretty successful. He boasts a career record 46-32, had had just a single losing season (his first at East Carolina in 2005), and has won a pair of conference titles. However, Skippy, like his father, has certainly not been flashy in his winning ways. His East Carolina teams also posed significant problems to my projection system as they frequently finished with sterling won/loss records in Conference USA despite mediocre SDPI numbers. The table below illustrates those discrepancies.As you can see, with the exception of his final year at East Carolina, when his Pirates rated out as the second best team in the league, his teams have usually ranked around the middle in terms of performance. However, Skip always seems to get the best out of his teams. One was he has done this is by posting a phenomenal record in close games. Since 2006, teams coached by Skip Holtz have gone 13-7 in one-score conference games and 22-11 in one-score games overall. How have his teams been able to post this strong record in close games? One reason may of course be randomness and small sample size, but there is one statistical category where his teams have consistently performed well--blocking kicks.His teams have blocked 18 kicks over the past five seasons. Perhaps more importantly, those blocked kicks have aided the cause greatly in close games. 11 of the 18 blocks have occurred in 9 one-score games since 2006. His teams' record in those 9 games? 8-1. Drop those 9 games from the ledger and his teams have gone a more 'normal' 14-10 in one-score games since 2006. The system did not project South Florida to win the Big East this season, but it wouldn't shock me if the Bulls steal a BCS bid despite an underwhelming statistical profile.

2011 ACC Preview

Its been nearly 6 months since Auburn and Oregon squared off in the BCS National Championship Game, and I don't know about you, but I sure could use some amateur football. While we still have a ways to go (54 days to be exact), it is time to resume an annual tradition here at Statistically Speaking, the conference previews. We'll begin today with the ACC, and go alphabetically through the 6 BCS conferences before moving on to the Independents and the Mid-Majors. These projections come from my very own projection system, so feel free to disagree with them. If you want to see how wrong I was last year, here's the link to the 2010 ACC Projections. In addition to the projections, there is a small post regarding some statistical fact I found interesting about the ACC last year. All other league projections will feature a similar format. Check back in a few days for the Big East preview. And without further adieu, here's how the ACC will shake out in 2011.



No Offense, None Taken
If you watched a lot of ACC football, or paid attention to the SDPI post way back in January, you know that Clemson and Boston College were among the most poorly balanced teams in the nation last season; at least in terms of offense and defense. Both teams boasted stellar offenses, with Clemson leading the ACC in defense and Boston College finishing second. However, both teams were at the opposite end of the spectrum when it came to moving the ball themselves. Clemson ranked tenth (out of twelve teams) in offense, and Boston College ranked eleventh. Thus, we can intuitively surmise that games involving Boston College and Clemson provided very few touchdowns. And we would be correct in our assumption. The table below lists the offensive touchdowns (touchdowns not scored by the defense or special teams) both scored and allowed by ACC teams in conference play in 2010.As you can see, Clemson and Boston College had by far the fewest touchdowns scored in their respective games. As a point of reference, the average ACC team saw 44 total touchdowns scored in their eight league games, for an average of 5.5 total touchdowns per game. Virginia games saw the most frequent scores, with the Cavs and their opponents combining to score nearly seven offensive touchdowns per game. Not that the Cavs were very good, as they allowed more than four per game on average, while scoring less than three per game themselves.

So the average ACC teams saw 44 touchdowns scored in their league games with a standard deviation of 8.73863 touchdowns (a little more than one per game). How far away from the average were Clemson and Boston College? Pretty far. Clemson was 1.72 standard deviations below average, while Boston College was 2.06 below average. The following table helps illustrate just how far away from the rest of the league Clemson and Boston College were when it came to scoring (either for or against) in their games.

Home Field Advantage as a Function of Crowd Size

A few weeks ago I finished reading the fantastic book Scorecasting. One of the more interesting chapters in the book deals with home field advantage and what actual advantage(s) it confers to teams. I won't spoil the conclusion, but its not what you think. The authors later look at how crowd size may have accounted for these advantages. Feeling inspired, I decided to take a look at how crowd size affected home field advantage in 2010. I didn't look at any particular telling stat (penalties, yards, touchdowns, etc.), I simply looked at whether or not the home team won, and then what the crowd size for that game was. I then, very unscientifically I might add, divided the crowd attendance into ranges of 10,000 and calculated the winning percentage for each range. The results are summarized in the table below.That looks like an almost perfect relationship. As crowd size increases, the home team is more likely to win (up to a certain point--adding a few thousand more folks north of 100,000 doesn't appear to make the home team more likely to win). However, there are some caveats. First, sample size is an issue for a few ranges. Only 12 games were played involving 10,000 or fewer spectators. These were all games involving either MAC, Sun Belt, or WAC schools. There were also only 57 games played in front of more than 90,000 fans. These games all involved SEC, Big 12, or Big 10 teams playing at home (some of their opponents were mid-majors). This brings up a second issue. Better teams tend to have bigger stadiums. It doesn't make sense for Akron to have an on-campus stadium that seats 96,000 fans. Likewise, it doesn't make sense for Ohio State to have a 30,000 seat stadium when they have more undergraduates than that currently enrolled at the university. If only there were some unbiased way to look at two teams and determine whether or not the home team is more likely to win in the first place. Thankfully, for our purposes, and for degenerates nationwide, there is. Its called the point spread. This next table summarizes the home teams record Against the Spread (ATS). For those who do not know what this means, I present a quick example. Lets say the road team is favored by seven points against the home team. If the home team loses the game by six points, they cover the spread and 'win' for our purposes. If they lose by eight points, they 'lose', and if they lose by exactly seven points its a push, or for our purposes, a 'tie'. Now, here's that table I promised.Based on their record against the spread, home team's performed better as crowd size increased. However, once again this was only up to a certain point, and that point is much lower than the previous threshold for simply winning the game. As the crowd size inched north of 50,000 or so, the added fans provided no real boost to the home team's hopes of covering the spread. Here's another way of looking at the data.Any gambler worth his salt would give his best parlay card for a guaranteed winning percentage of 57%. If you occasionally make plays on college football, keep crowd size in mind when placing your bets. And you can feel free to send any large windfalls my way.

2010 Sun Belt SDPI

We have come to the end of our season recaps. We conclude by examining the Sun Belt, a mid-major conference that will be celebrating its 10th anniversary in 2011. If you feel like it, send them a gift of tin to their league office in New Orleans, Louisiana. For a primer on whats going on here, check the link to last year's SDPI post on the Sun Belt.

As usual, this first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2010 Sun Belt regular season, conference play only, the average Sun Belt team gained and allowed 3060.78 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 374.94 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 138.99 yards. North Texas gained 2961 yards and allowed 3173 yards. Their offensive SDPI was -0.27 = [(2961-3060.78)/374.94]. Their defensive SDPI was -0.81 = [(3060.78-3173)/138.99]. Their total SDPI was -1.07. This number ranked 8th in the Sun Belt.

Here are the 2010 Sun Belt standings.Now here are the 2010 Sun Belt SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 9 teams) in parentheses.For the fifth straight season, the Troy Trojans claimed at least a share of the conference title. joining Ohio State as the only other IA team to accomplish that feat since 2006. For the first time in the league's short history, the Sun Belt sent three teams to the postseason, with Troy and Middle Tennessee State making their third and second consecutive trips, while Florida International made their maiden voyage. Elsewhere in the league standings, Western Kentucky broke a 26-game losing streak when they beat Louisiana-Lafayette in late October.

So Who Was Better Than Their Record Showed?
Speaking of the Hilltoppers, in their second season as full-time Sun Belt members, Western Kentucky managed only a pair of league wins, but they were oh so close in several others. The Hilltoppers were just 1-4 in one-score games, falling to Florida International, Louisiana-Monroe, Florida Atlantic, and Middle Tennessee State by a combined 14 points. The Hilltoppers were just a few plays away from finishing in the middle of the pack in the conference instead of the basement.

So Who Was Worse Than Their Record Showed?
Middle Tennessee State finished all alone in third place in the Sun Belt, behind co-champs Florida International and Troy, but their play was more indicative of a team with a losing record. In their three game winning streak to end the season, the Blue Raiders beat both Western Kentucky and Florida International by a single point to keep their bowl hopes alive.

Conference Superlatives:

Best Offense: Troy 1.48
The Trojans needed their offense to be spectacular in order to lay claim to another league title because their defense was among the worst in the conference.

Worst Offense: Florida Atlantic -1.55
Where oh where has Rusty Smith gone? The Owls were held below 300 yards in half their conference games, and for the season averaged just 310 yards per game against Sun Belt foes.

Best Defense: Western Kentucky 1.91
This was perhaps the biggest shocker during all the SDPI analysis I have done. While the Hilltoppers don't appear to be particularly stingy on defense (allowed 349 yards per game in league play), they were never really torched by anyone save Troy (491 yards allowed). In a league with a small defensive range (Florida Atlantic, the worst defense, allowed 52 more yards per game than the Hilltoppers), Western Kentucky did just enough to earn the number one ranking.

Worst Defense: Florida Atlantic -1.09
As mentioned above, all the defenses were very close in the Sun Belt last year. The Owls just happened to have the worst showing.

Troise State
While it may not seem like it based on a cursory knowledge of the Sun Belt, over the last half-decade, the Troy Trojans have dominated their mid-major conference brethren in a similar fashion to Boise State. The Trojans have won at least a share of the Sun Belt title in each of the past five seasons, and in that span are seven games clear of the team with the second best record (Middle Tennessee State). How do the Trojans stack up in their dominance with leaders from the other ten conferences? Glad you asked.Only Ohio State and Boise have been more dominant in relation to the other teams in their respective leagues than Troy. Notice also that Oregon, not Southern Cal has posted the best Pac-10 record over the past five seasons.

2010 MAC SDPI

We have but two more leagues to review in our jaunt through the college football landscape. We begin the end of our SDPI reviews with a look at the MAC, a league even the NFL envies with its commitment to parity. More on this later. If you want a primer on what's going on here, follow the link to last year's MAC post.

As usual, this first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2010 MAC regular season, conference play only, championship game excluded, the average MAC team gained and allowed 2807.23 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 528.97 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 403.62 yards. Kent State gained 2517 yards and allowed 2418 yards. Their offensive SDPI was -0.55 = [(2517-2807.23)/528.97]. Their defensive SDPI was 0.96 = [(2807.23-2418)/403.62]. Their total SDPI was 0.42. This number ranked 7th in the MAC.

Here are the 2010 MAC standings.Now here are the 2010 MAC SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by division by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 13 teams) in parentheses.The MAC almost had a team finish the year ranked for the second consecutive season. Heading into the MAC Championship Game, Northern Illinois was ranked 24th in the AP Poll. However, their upset loss to Miami dropped them out of the poll. Still, the MAC enjoyed a solid season, with its top two teams (Miami and Northern Illinois) winning bowl games in relatively easy fashion. Northern Illinois' win over Fresno was especially satisfying as the Bulldogs (deservedly or not) are one of the more revered mid-major teams.

So Who Was Better Than Their Record Showed?
Pick your directional Michigan school. Both Central Michigan (won three of the previous four MAC titles) and Western Michigan were much better than their records showed. Central Michigan was undone by turnovers (committed a league-high 25 in MAC play for league-worse margin of -13) and an inability to win close games. Their 1-5 record in one-score games (1-3 in the MAC) relegated them to their first losing season since 2004. Meanwhile, Western Michigan rated out as the third best team in the league statistically. They too struggled in close games (0-2 overall and in the league), but won several blowouts (four of their five league wins came by at least 29 points), suggesting that they were capable of much more than a third place finish in the division.

So Who Was Worse Than Their Record Showed?
The Toledo Rockets enjoyed their first winning season since 2005, but a great deal of their success is likely unsustainable, unless they improve their overall play. Toledo forced a league-high 27 turnovers in MAC play and turned the ball over just nine times for an absurd margin of +18 in eight games (for comparison's sake, they forced 10 and lost 23 in 2009). That number will likely trend the other way in 2011. Make no mistake, the Rockets were in the upper-half of the MAC statistically last year. However, their play was not indicative of a team that lost just a single conference game.

Conference Superlatives:

Best Offense: Northern Illinois 2.06
The Huskies never failed to generate at least 420 yards of offense or 28 points in any league game until they were held to 373 and 21 respectively in their MAC Championship Game defeat.

Worst Offense: Buffalo -1.28
New coach. New quarterback. Yuck. After rolling for 441 yards against Bowling Green in their conference opener, the Bulls averaged just 241 yards per game over their last seven. For the season, their leading rusher gained just 298 yards and averaged under 3 yards per carry.

Best Defense: Northern Illinois 1.27
Western Michigan was the only MAC team to top 400 yards against the Huskies, until Miami put 432 on them in the MAC Championship Game.

Worst Defense: Eastern Michigan -1.52
The Eagles somehow held Ball State and Buffalo in check (540 combined yards), but were utterly hopeless against everyone else (allowed 480 yards per game).

The MAC is the NFL of College Football
I know what you're thinking: How can the MAC, one of, if not the weakest of the IA conferences possibly be compared to the best of the best in the National Football league? The answer is simple - parity. The NFL prides itself on the notion that even woebegone teams and franchises are just a year or two away from contention. The MAC may not tout its parity like the NFL, but rest assured it does exist. Before we delve into the hard numbers, consider these few facts. Over the past three seasons, Buffalo has won the MAC, and finished 1-7 in the conference just two years later. Ball State and Central Michigan have both finished unbeaten in MAC play, then 2-6 the very next year. Bowling Green has finished with six league wins one season and then two the next. Miami went from the basement of the East division (1-7) to the top of the East (7-1) in just one season. I could go on, but suffice it to say parity is alive and well in the MAC. How much parity is there in the MAC and how does this parity compare to the other ten IA conferences? To answer that question I did a simple regression analysis to determine how well a team's conference wins in one season predict their conference wins in the following season. I looked at three years worth of data (2008-2010). That is, how well did a team's 2008 conference record predict their 2009 conference record and how well did their 2009 conference record predict their 2010 conference record. The R squared values for each conference are included in the chart below.The R squared value tells us how much of the variation in the dependent variable (conference record) is explained by the independent variable (last year's conference record). As you can see, the MAC has been by far the least predictable conference, at least when using last year's standings as a baseline. Barely more than 3% of the variation in conference record can be explained by last season's conference record. On the other end of the spectrum, the Pac-10, WAC, and Mountain West have been much more consistent in terms of their final standings. So what does this mean for 2011? Bet the house on Eastern Michigan winning the MAC.

2010 Mountain West SDPI

Last week we looked at the WAC, one of the mid-major leagues that will be undergoing significant changes over the next two seasons. Now we will take a look at the Mountain West, another conference experiencing a makeover this season and in 2012. For some background on whats going on, here's the link to last year's Mountain West post.

As usual, this first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2010 Mountain West regular season, conference play only, the average Mountain West team gained and allowed 2946.44 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 617.70 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 667.42 yards. Air Force gained 3399 yards and allowed 2906 yards. Their offensive SDPI was 0.73 = [(3399-2946.44)/617.70]. Their defensive SDPI was 0.06 = [(2946.44-2906)/667.42]. Their total SDPI was 0.79. This number ranked 3rd in the Mountain West.

Here are the 2010 Mountain West standings.Now here are the 2010 Mountain West SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 9 teams) in parentheses.In late October the Mountain West actually had two teams ranked in the top-10 of the AP poll. The Utah Utes lost two games down the stretch, then lost to Boise State in their bowl game to fall out of the top-25 altogether. Still, the Mountain West enjoyed a solid season, with a 4-1 bowl record, including two bowl wins over BCS conference teams (Wisconsin and Georgia Tech), had their league champion finish ranked number two in the country for the second time in three seasons, and saw one of their coaches leave for one of the premiere jobs in the nation (Michigan). With Boise State joining the fold in 2011 followed by Fresno State, Hawaii, and Nevada in 2012, the Mountain West is poised to remain one of the preeminent mid-major leagues despite the losses of BYU, Utah, and TCU.

So Who Was Better Than Their Record Showed?
BYU began the season 1-4, with non-competitive losses to Air Force, Florida State, Nevada, and Utah State. After upsetting San Diego State, TCU blew the Cougars out in Fort Worth. BYU proceeded to win four of their final five regular season games, with the lone loss coming by a single point at arch-rival Utah. Statistically, BYU was the second best team in the Mountain West, but thanks to that close call against Utah (lost when their game-winning field goal attempt was blocked), they had to settle for a tie for third in the Mountain West standings.

So Who Was Worse Than Their Record Showed?
In their final season of play in the Mountain West, Utah looked like they may leave for the Pac-10 with a conference title in tow. However, despite their sterling 7-1 league mark, Utah was actually several notches below league champ TCU, and very fortunate to finish with just one league loss. Within the conference, Utah was 3-0 in one-score games, beating the other bowl-eligible teams (Air Force, BYU, and San Diego State) by a combined 10 points. The Utes did not acquit themselves well in their high-profile contests, scoring just 13 points in games against TCU, Notre Dame, and Boise State (lost by a combined 88 points).

Conference Superlatives:

Best Offense: TCU 1.79
The Horned Frogs gained at least 500 yards in five of their eight league games, and were held below 400 yards just once (against BYU).

Worst Offense: New Mexico -1.30
Year Two of the Mike Locksley era was not much of an improvement over Year 1. The Lobos topped 400 yards just once during Mountain West play, in their lone win versus Wyoming. At least Mr Locksley didn't punch any assistants or have busy hands with his secretary.

Best Defense: TCU 2.08
The Horned Frogs amazingly held six of their eight league opponents to fewer than 200 yards of total offense.

Worst Defense: New Mexico -1.29
The Lobos pulled double duty at the bottom of the Mountain West. Their defense held only one league foe (San Diego State) below 400 yards.

The Mightiest of the Mids
There's a reason Boise State, Fresno State, Hawaii, and Nevada did not hesitate to say 'Yes' when the Mountain West offered them membership. While they may not all be able to use the Mountain West as a stepping stone like Utah and TCU, and gain entry into one of the BCS conferences, the league does provide a stiffer challenge and better prestige than the WAC. The Mountain West has been by far the preeminent non-BCS (mid-major conference) over the last half-decade. Don't believe me? I have graphs! This first graph simply lists the number of victories each mid-major conference (Mountain West, WAC, CUSA, MAC, and Sun Belt) have over BCS conference foes (and Notre Dame) since 2006.
With the exception of 2006, the Mountain West has boasted more victories over BCS conference foes than any other mid-major conference. Over the past five seasons, Mountain West teams have won 37 games against BCS conference opponents. The WAC is second in that span with 23 such victories. And don't think that the wins have been limited to the Big 3 (BYU, TCU, and Utah). Middling teams like Wyoming (wins over Tennessee and Virginia), UNLV (Arizona State and Iowa State), and New Mexico (Arizona twice) have also contributed some scalps.

The Mountain West has also been the mid-major conference with the most teams ranked in the final AP poll.The Mountain West has had 10 teams finish the season ranked in the top 25 since 2006 (an average of two per season). The WAC is next with six. In this case, your initial hunch is correct. the Big 3 have accounted for each top-25 appearance. Alas, the Sun Belt has yet to have a team finish the season ranked in the top 25.

2010 WAC SDPI

This week, our conference recap takes us to the WAC, a league that may soon cease to exist in football. Boise State will be joining the more prestigious Mountain West in 2011, with Fresno State, Hawaii, and Nevada following suit in 2012. Oh well, for at least one more season, the WAC is alive and well. For a primer on what this series is about, here's the link to last year's WAC post.

As usual, this first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2010 WAC regular season, conference play only, the average WAC team gained and allowed 3288.67 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 725.55 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 636.94 yards. Fresno State gained 2917 yards and allowed 2839 yards. Their offensive SDPI was -0.51 = [(2917-3288.67)/725.55]. Their defensive SDPI was 0.71 = [(3288.67-2839)/636.94]. Their total SDPI was 0.19. This number ranked 4th in the WAC.

Here are the 2010 WAC standings.Now here are the 2010 WAC SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 9 teams) in parentheses.The actual standings and SDPI ratings agree there was a triumvirate at the top of the WAC in 2010. Boise continued their dominance in their swan song, but Hawaii and Nevada also rose up and enjoyed solid seasons. The WAC nearly placed two teams in the top-10 of the final AP poll for the first time in its history with Boise finishing the season ranked 9th and Nevada 11th. When the Wolfpack upset the Broncos in exciting fashion on November 26th, it marked the end of Boise's 22-game WAC winning streak and 35-game regular season winning streak. On the other end of the spectrum, San Jose State failed to win a league game, and dating back to their slide to end the 2008 season, the Spartans are now 1-18 in their last 19 conference games.

So Who Was Better Than Their Record Showed?
The WAC standings line up nearly identically with the SDPI ratings. However, Boise is probably the team that is most underrated by their standing in the conference. While the Broncos tied for the league title, they thoroughly dominated their league opponents, with the exception of a second-half meltdown in Reno. The Broncos won each of their other league games by at least 29 points, and eviscerated fellow co-champ Hawaii by 35 points. For comparison's sake, the Broncos posted a combined SDPI of 2.44 in 2009. The second rated team, Nevada, posted a combined of SDPI of 2.13 for an advantage of 0.31 standard deviations. If you don't want to go back and look at the table, Boise posted a combined SDPI of 3.11 last year. Hawaii was second at 1.94, 1.17 standard deviations below Boise. Misfortune in the kicking game was the only thing keeping this team from a third consecutive perfect conference mark.

So Who Was Worse Than Their Record Showed?
Once again, we're splitting hairs here as the WAC teams that were good in 2010 posted good records and vice-versa. However, Idaho managed to win three league games despite not being appreciably better than the three teams that finished below them in the standings. Idaho followed up their surprising 8-5 2009 season with a somewhat disappointing 6-7 mark. However, outside of 2009, the six wins represent their most in a season since 1999 when they went 7-4. The Vandals were not particularly lucky in 2010, they just weren't a great deal better than Utah State, New Mexico State, or San Jose State, which combined won as many games in conference as Idaho.

Conference Superlatives:

Best Offense: Nevada 1.44
The Pistol was a 357 in 2010. The Wolfpack continued their dominance (finished first in the category in 2009) with Colin Kaepernick under center (or just behind center as it were) in his senior season. Outside of their struggle on the islands (season-low 293 yards), the Wolfpack averaged 577 yards in their other seven conference games.

Worst Offense: New Mexico State -1.15
The Aggies topped 400 yards of offense just once on the year, in their lone league win versus San Jose State. They were held below 215 yards three times in league play.

Best Defense: Boise State 1.81
Nevada showed they were mortal when they racked up 528 yards in their upset win. However, in their other seven league games, the Broncos were nearly impenetrable, allowing just 230 yards per game.

Worst Defense: San Jose State -1.14
What's an easy way to go winless? Allow over 500 yards per game to your conference brethren. The Spartans were at their worst against Nevada and Hawaii, allowing them to gouge them for over 1200 yards in the two games.

Sacks in the WAC
Even casual fans by now know about Boise State. The Broncos, along with schools like TCU and Utah, have been the poster child for mid-major football the past few seasons. The Broncos routinely dominate their opponents in the WAC and also hold their own against the big boys from the BCS leagues. To satisfy my own curiosity, I wanted to find out how dominant Boise State was in regards to protecting their own quarterback and pressuring the opposing quarterback in the confines of WAC play. To answer that question, I wanted to look at more than just total sacks and sacks allowed (though Boise did lead the WAC in both categories with 30 sacks and just 6 sacks allowed). Instead I looked at sack rate. Sack rate is simply the number of sacks divided by the number of pass attempts plus sacks. This number tells us how many times out of 100 pass attempts a team sacked the opposing quarterback or was sacked by the opposing team. The table below lists the sacks rates (higher is better) for WAC teams in 2010 (conference play only). The average sack rate was 6.14%. Boise State sacked opposing WAC quarterbacks at a rate of more than once every ten pass attempts, while Utah State registered a sack roughly every 40 pass attempts. Just eyeballing sack rates, the ability to sack opposing quarterbacks seems to align itself pretty evenly with overall defensive ability. Most teams were ranked in sack rate very close to where they were ranked in defensive SDPI. The big exception is of course San Jose State, which finished dead last in the conference in defense, but was actually about average in sack rate. Unfortunately for the Spartans, when they didn't sack the opposing quarterback, their secondary broke down. WAC opponents averaged more than 8.5 yards per pass attempt. Now let's look at how often a team's quarterback was sacked by the opposition (lower is better). Once again Boise State is by far the cream of the crop. Opponents sacked Boise quarterback Kellen Moore just once every 45 drop backs. On the other end of the spectrum, Fresno State quarterback Ryan Colburn was sacked about once every 11 pass attempts. This helps explain why Fresno finished with a below average SDPI rating (6th in the WAC) despite Colburn's otherwise solid passing stats.

2010 Conference USA SDPI

We've rolled through all six BCS conferences so now its time to take a look at the little guys. We'll begin our mid-major sojourn with Conference USA, one of two mid-major leagues with a pair of divisions and a conference title game. For a primer, here's the link to last year's Conference USA post.

As usual, this first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2010 Conference USA regular season, conference play only, championship game excluded, the average Conference USA team gained and allowed 3306.67 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 565.42 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 328.68 yards. Marshall gained 2441 yards and allowed 2910 yards. Their offensive SDPI was -1.53 = [(2441-3306.67)/565.42]. Their defensive SDPI was 1.21 = [(3306.67-2910)/328.68]. Their total SDPI was -0.32. This number ranked 8th in Conference USA.

Here are the 2010 Conference USA standings.Now here are the 2010 Conference USA SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by division by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 12 teams) in parentheses.For the first time since the league expanded and split into two divisions in 2005, Conference USA had a team ranked in the final AP poll. In fact they had two (first time ever). With their bowl victories over Georgia and Hawaii respectively, UCF and Tulsa finished 21st and 24th in the last AP poll. Meanwhile, at the Hall of Justice, err, the bottom of the standings, Memphis has now lost 13 consecutive league games since beating UTEP in 2009.

So Who Was Better Than Their Record Showed?
Houston has been a threat to win the western division nearly every season since the league expanded. From 2006-2009, the Cougars finished either first or a game back of first each season. They weathered the loss of the school's all-time leading passer in 2007 when Kevin Kolb departed and one year later a coaching change when Art Briles left for Baylor. However, a confluence of forces in 2010 caused them to miss out on a bowl game for the first time since 2004. Cobb's heir to the quarterbacking throne, senior Case Keenum was lost for the year in the season's third game with an ACL injury. The good news for Cougars fans is that Keenum was awarded an extra year of eligibility so he will be back under center in 2011. Even without Keenum for seven of their eight league games, the Cougars still produced the league's second most prolific offense (behind Tulsa). Houston has now finished first or second in Conference USA in offense for each season that I have been calculating SDPI (since 2005). While Keenum's understudy, freshman David Piland, did gain some valuable experience, he also made a fair share of rookie mistakes. Piland threw nine interceptions in his seven league starts. By comparison, Keenum threw just eight in 16 starts from 2008 to 2009. With those interceptions, Houston had the second worst turnover margin in Conference USA in 2010 (-5). The Cougars also went winless in one-score games in 2010, falling to Rice by three, UCF by seven, and Tulsa by three. With Keenum back in the fold, expect the Cougars to return to their rightful place near the top of the west in 2011.

So Who Was Worse Than Their Record Showed?
Ruffin McNeill continued the Skip Holtz magic at East Carolina. Despite posting marginal to below average statistics, the Pirates continue to finish in the upper-half of their division and play in bowl games. While under Holtz, the Pirates won with a stout defense and middling offense, the 2010 Pirates flipped the script. East Carolina had an above-average offense for the first time since 2005 with Boston College transfer Dominique Davis throwing 37 touchdown passes in 2010 (the Pirates threw just 30 touchdown passes as a team in 2008 and 2009 combined). However, the defense went from the second best in all of Conference USA, to the worst. Ruffin McNeill, a defensive coach will have to coax some serious improvement out of that side of the ball, as the Pirates allowed at least 40 points in ten of their 13 games.

Conference Superlatives:

Best Offense: Tulsa 1.46
The Golden Hurricane were held below 400 yards just once in conference play. They gained just 364 yards in their loss to SMU that ultimately decided the western division.

Worst Offense: Memphis -1.67
With a new coach and a new quarterback, no one was walking with their feet 10 feet off of Beale. Outside of their first game against East Carolina when they set their high-water conference mark in yards (413) and points (27), the Tigers averaged just 279 yards and 14.4 points per game through the rest of conference play.

Best Defense: UCF 1.66
For the second year in a row, and third time in the past four seasons, UCF owned the best defense in Conference USA. That unit also played pretty well in their clashes with the big boys. UCF held Georgia to six points in their bowl win, held NC State quarterback Russell Wilson to his worst passer rating in any start as a collegian, and held Kansas State running back Daniel Thomas to his second worst per carry average on the year.

Worst Defense: East Carolina -1.45
This is what happens when you lose nine starters and your head coach. The Pirates allowed roughly 112 more yards per game to their league foes in 2010 versus 2009 (473 to 361).

Jeff Godfrey: A Godsend
Heading into the 2010 season, UCF looked to be one of the favorites to win their half of Conference USA and perhaps earn a date with an SEC foe in the Liberty Bowl. The Knights defense had been one of the best units in the league for the previous four seasons and looked to be stacked again with seven returning starters. However, the offense, in particular the quarterback position looked to be an area of weakness. Wake Forest transfer Brett Hodges put up solid numbers in his lone year as a starter in 2009, but the only quarterback with any experience heading into 2010 was Rob Calabrese. As a starter in 2008, Calabrese appeared more suited for an offense run by Amos Alonzo Stagg as he completed under 40% of his passes (39.4). Calabrese got the nod in the opener against IAA South Dakota State and actually showed some promise, completing 12 of 15 passes for 176 yards and a touchdown. Against NC State in the team's second game, Calabrese showed that perhaps he should be playing IAA football as he completed just 10 of 18 passes for 106 yards and two interceptions. Down 21 points and in need of a spark, head coach George O'Leary turned to true freshman Jeff Godfrey. Godfrey completed seven of his ten passes, throwing for 107 yards against the Wolfpack. He did not throw any touchdown passes, but he did rush for two scores and 53 yards on the ground. UCF was within seven and in the red zone late in the game when receiver Quincy McDuffie fumbled a Godfrey completion which NC State recovered. The Wolfpack held on for a 28-21 win, but UCF had discovered their quarterback of the future (and present). Behind Godfrey's heroics and another fine defensive showing, the Knights finished 7-1 in league play, beat SMU in the championship game, and upset Georgia in the Liberty Bowl. Godfrey finished the season with the 15th best quarterback rating in the nation (154.31), and he also added over 500 yards on the ground for good measure. He has a ways to go, but Godfrey could end up being the school's most accomplished passer, surpassing even the great Daunte Culpepper.

2010 SEC SDPI

This week we conclude our sojourn through the big boys of college football with the kings of the college landscape, the SEC. For first time readers, here's a link to last year's post on the SEC.

As usual, this first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2010 SEC regular season, conference play only, championship game excluded, the average SEC team gained and allowed 2997.75 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 516.03 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 373.68 yards. Georgia gained 3064 yards and allowed 2846 yards. Their offensive SDPI was 0.13 = [(3064-2997.75)/516.03]. Their defensive SDPI was 0.41 = [(2997.75-2846)/373.68]. Their total SDPI was 0.53. This number ranked 7th in the SEC.

Here are the 2010 SEC standings.Now here are the 2010 SEC SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by division by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 12 teams) in parentheses.For the fifth straight season, the SEC produced the BCS National Champion. However, by perusing either the actual standings or the SDPI rankings, its clear the 2010 SEC was anything but balanced. The SEC West went 15-3 against their eastern division foes. Outside of Ole Miss, the west was an even more dominant 14-1 with the lone win being South Carolina's upset over Alabama. The outcome was similar in the bowl season. The west went 4-1, with the lone loss coming from Arkansas in the Sugar Bowl versus Ohio State. Meanwhile, the east went just 1-4 with Florida's win over Penn State in the Outback Bowl representing the only positive postseason outcome.

So Who Was Better Than Their Record Showed?
No team significantly underperformed their expected record based on their down-to-down stats, but if one must be chosen, how about Kentucky. For years, the Wildcats have posted bad SDPI numbers, yet still managed to win about three conference games and play in a nondescript bowl. This year, the Wildcats actually posted mediocre numbers (especially on offense where they finished 3rd in the conference), yet thanks to a poor record in one-score games (1-3) and the worst turnover margin in the conference (-6 in SEC games), Kentucky won just a pair of league games.

So Who Was Worse Than Their Record Showed?
Once again, there's not a great deal to quibble with here. However, the team with the biggest disparity between their SDPI rating and their finish in the league standings belongs to Mississippi State. The Bulldogs were very bad on offense (ahead of only Vandy) and a little above average on defense. However, they managed to eke out three one-score wins and finish the season ranked for the first time since 2000.

Conference Superlatives:

Best Offense: Arkansas 1.62
The Hogs topped 400 yards in every conference game and scored at least 30 points in every game but one. They needed all those yards and points because the defense was still below average.

Worst Offense: Vanderbilt -2.28
Vandy had a few decent games moving the football, gaining 400 yards against Kentucky and 333 versus Tennessee. However, they also had more than a few stinkers. They were held to 153 yards or fewer in games versus LSU, Georgia, Arkansas, and Florida.

Best Defense: Florida 1.37
The Gators chomped down on opposing offenses. The only SEC team to top 400 yards against them was Georgia.

Worst Defense: Vanderbilt -2.10
The 'Dores double-dipped in 2010, fielding both the worst offense and defense in the SEC. They began conference play with respectable performances against LSU and Ole Miss, limiting those two teams to just 389 yards per game. However, they imploded over their last six, allowing an average of 501 yards per game!

Auburn, Florida, and the Plexiglass Principle
On the surface, it may look like Auburn and Florida had extremely divergent seasons. Auburn finished undefeated and won their first national title since 1957, while Florida lost five games for the first time since 2004. However, both schools did post conference records that were drastically different from the ones they posted the season before. For Auburn, the change was very positive. The Tigers went from a 3-5 mark in 2009 to an unblemished 8-0 mark and SEC West championship in 2010. For Florida, the results were entirely dissimilar. The Gators went from an unblemished 8-0 mark and SEC East championship to a .500 record in the SEC. The Tigers improved by five games and the Gators declined by four games. What can this significant improvement and decline tell us about the teams in 2011? To attempt to answer that question, I looked at all SEC schools in the BCS era (1998-2010) that had either improved by five games or declined by four games in league play and how they performed in the year following their significant improvement or decline. Here are the results, first for those teams that featured marked improvement. As you would probably have guessed, improving by at least five games in league play is a relatively rare occurrence. Besides Auburn in 2010, it happened just three other times since 1998. With such a small number of observations, we can give a brief summary of the each team.
South Carolina 99-00
The Gamecocks not only went from winless in the SEC, but winless overall to a top-20 finish and five conference wins. 2000 marked the second year of the Lou Holtz regime and the end of a 21-game losing streak. The Gamecocks followed up their rise with an equally impressive 5-3 mark and another top-20 finish in 2001.
Arkansas 05-06
Arkansas lost a slew of close games in 2005 (four of their six league losses came by a combined 13 points). They rode the backfield tandem of Darren McFadden and Felix Jones (and some new formation called the Wildcat) to the SEC West title in 2006. With McFadden and Jones still in the fold in 2007, they dipped to 4-4.
Ole Miss 07-08
Like South Carolina nearly a decade before, the Rebels went from winless in the SEC to 5-3. It took Lou Holtz two seasons to turn the tide in Columbia, but Houston Nutt accomplished the feat in his first year at the helm in Oxford. Quarterback transfer Jevan Snead led the Rebels to a Cotton Bowl win and top-20 finish. The Rebels were the darlings of the 2009 preseason, but failed to make the major breakthrough many pundits expected and actually slipped to 4-4.

Here are the results for those teams that declined significantly. Once again the sample is relatively small with just six teams besides Florida in 2010 fitting the bill.
Alabama 99-00
In 1999, Alabama won the SEC behind future NFL star Shaun Alexander. They began the 2000 season ranked number three in the country, but fell to UCLA in the season opener. It got worse from there as the Tide won only three league games. Head coach Mike DuBose was dumped and under new coach Dennis Franchione, the Tide improved by one game to 4-4 in 2001.
Kentucky 99-00
Kentucky played in their final bowl game under Hal Mumme in 1999, finishing 4-4 in the SEC. Their quarterback? Tim Couch? Nope. Jared Lorenzen? Nope. Dusty Bonner. Bonner transferred prior to the 2000 season and Lorenzen became the starter. He posted solid numbers, but the defense allowed nearly 35 points per game, the team went winless in the SEC, and Mumme was canned. Guy Morriss took over, but the Wildcats only improved to 1-7 in 2001.
Alabama 02-03
This marks the Tide's second, but not final, appearance on this list. Alabama actually won the SEC West in 2002, but was ineligible for postseason play. Head coach Dennis Franchione bolted to Texas A&M after the season and the Tide hired Mike Price. Coach Price paid a dear one for an alleged trip to a strip club and subsequent hotel tryst, never coaching a game for the Tide. The Tide then brought in Mike Shula, but the Tide won only two league games. He did get the Tide to a bowl game the following year, but they won just three SEC games.
Ole Miss 03-04
David Cutcliffe rode Eli Manning to a shared SEC West crown and Cotton Bowl title in 2003. After Manning became the number one pick in the draft, the team understandably declined in 2004, falling to 3-5 in the SEC. Unfortunately for Cutcliffe and Ole Miss, the coach was given the axe and replaced with Ed Orgeron. Orgeron proceeded to run the program further into the ground, winning just one SEC game in 2005 (and only three during his deplorable three-year tenure).
Tennessee 04-05
The Vols won oodles of close games in 2004. Six of their seven SEC wins came by a touchdown or less. In fact, they were the inspiration for my very first blog post. Their luck turned in 2005 and the team slipped to 3-5. Phil Fulmer had them back near the top of the SEC in 2006, when they won five league games.
Alabama 05-06
You again? After seemingly getting the program back amongst the nation's elite with six SEC wins and a Cotton Bowl berth behind a stout defense in 2005, Mike Shula lost his job after a 2-6 showing in 2006. Nick Saban was hired and the Tide managed a slight improvement to 4-4 in 2007.
Sample size is an issue here of course, but when projecting Auburn and Florida's respective 2011 seasons, it pays to take heed of the Plexiglass Principle. Teams that improve significantly in one season tend to decline the next and vice-versa. Without Cam Newton, they Tigers aren't likely to win another SEC title in 2011, but of the teams that improved by at least conference games, their average decline the following season was just a little over one win. Auburn still has a top-notch offensive mind in coordinator Gus Malzahn, so they while they may fade from the pinnacle of the national stage, they should be lurking around the nether regions of the top-25. Meanwhile, for Florida, the Gators should expect some improvement in 2011. Five of the six teams that declined significantly improved by at least one game the following season. The only team that did not improve was Ole Miss. While the Gators did undergo a coaching change like Ole Miss, Florida has infinitely more tradition and infrastructure. Plus, they didn't hire Ed Orgeron.

2010 Pac-10 SDPI

This week, we'll try to shed out East Coast bias as we head out west to take a look at the Pac-10, another league that will be getting a makeover in 2012. Once again, for a primer, here is the link to last year's Pac-10 post.

As usual, this first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2010 Pac-10 regular season, conference play only, the average Pac-10 team gained and allowed 3533.5 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 661.93 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 359.76 yards. Cal gained 2629 yards and allowed 3010 yards. Their offensive SDPI was -1.37 = [(2629-3533.5)/661.93]. Their defensive SDPI was 1.46 = [(3533.5-3010)/359.76]. Their total SDPI was 0.09. This number ranked 6th in the Pac-10.

Here are the 2010 Pac-10 standings.Now here are the 2010 Pac-10 SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 10 teams) in parentheses.The Pac-10 produced a BCS National Championship Game participant, as well as a second BCS team in 2010, but may have suffered a bit in terms of national perception thanks to the fact that only four of the ten (Southern Cal had enough wins, but were banned from the postseason) conference teams attained bowl eligibility. The Pac-10 became the first BCS conference since the 2005 Big East to send fewer than five teams to bowl games. The 2010 Pac-10 was a top-heavy league. Oregon and Stanford dominated their peers out west, going 16-0 against the other eight schools with an average margin of victory of 22.7 points per game!

So Who Was Better Than Their Record Showed?
For the second year in a row, the Arizona State Sun Devils played better than their won/loss record showed. The Sun Devils were a shade above average on both sides of the ball, and should have probably finished with an extra league win, which would have gotten them to their first bowl game since 2007. However, the Sun Devils turned the ball over more than any Pac-10 team save UCLA and finished 1-3 in one-score conference games, resigning them to a third straight year of watching the postseason in Tempe.

So Who Was Worse Than Their Record Showed?
They may have closed the season with a nice hot streak, winning their final three regular season games, and upset a top-20 outfit in their bowl game, but Washington was still not quite ready for prime time. Four of their five league wins came by a touchdown or less (combined margin of 12 points), while each of their four losses came by at least 10 points (average margin of 29.5 points per game). The Huskies were slightly below average on both sides of the ball in 2010, so while their first postseason game since 2002 (and first win since 2000) is a nice bullet on Steve Sarkisian's resume, the rebuild ain't over yet.

Conference Superlatives

Best Offense: Oregon 1.63
Chip Kelly's spread and shred topped the Pac-10 in offense for the fourth straight year! The Ducks were number one out west when Kelly was the offensive coordinator in 2007 and 2008, and have done nothing but continue that success since he assumed the head coaching role prior to the 2009 season.

Worst Offense: Cal -1.37
Guess who is taking back the play-calling duties in Berkeley? Jeff Tedford has tutored many a fine collegiate quarterback, but 2010 represented rock bottom for the Golden Bears as they were held below 300 yards of offense in two thirds of their conference games. That's quite a shame too, considering how good their defense was.

Best Defense: Cal 1.46
Speak of the devil. Southern Cal and Stanford maimed the Golden Bears to the tune of 1069 total yards and 96 total points. In their other seven league games, Cal held the opposition to an average of 277 yards and 16 points per game.

Worst Defense: Washington State -1.94
The Cougars have now finished dead last in the Pac-10 in defense for three straight seasons and for four of the six years of the SDPI era (2005-2010).

Washington State: From Worse to Bad
To say the Washington State Cougars have been stuck in a rut under head coach Paul Wulff would be putting it very mildly. In Wulff's three seasons, the Cougars have beaten just three IA schools, and have lost by at least 30 points 16 times! However, the Cougars did show a few signs of life in 2010. They beat a Pac-10 team for the first time since their (Cr)Apple Cup win over Washington in 2008 and were competitive in several losses (losing one score games to Washington and Cal and staying within two touchdowns of Stanford and UCLA). The following table will show you just how far the Cougars have come since Wulff's first season. As you can see, the Cougars were historically bad in 2008. They scored eight total offensive touchdowns in their nine conference games while allowing 59! To put that number in perspective, consider this: If we take away field goals, safeties, and non-offensive touchdowns and then assume each offensive touchdown scored by Washington State is worth seven points, while each offensive touchdown scored by their opponents is only worth a single point, the Cougars would still have been outscored in 2008! They improved a little in 2009, primarily on the defensive side of the ball where they shaved off more than a quarter of their touchdowns allowed. In 2010, they went from historically inept to merely last-place bad. They actually managed to scored touchdowns on a semi-regular basis while cutting into their touchdowns allowed slightly. The Cougars have hopes to be more competitive in 2011, as their junior quarterback Jeff Tuel posted solid numbers as a sophomore (nearly 60% completion rate, 18 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions), and sophomore receiver Marquess Wilson topped 1000 yards through the air as a freshman. A bowl game is probably out of the question, but Pullman could no longer be a punchline.