2012 Mountain West Preview

The countdown has reached 21 days. That's right, just three weeks until kickoff. We can hold on that long. In the preview, Statistically Speaking gives you the breakdown of the Mountain West. Don't get too comfy with the conference layout though. Membership will be changing again next year as arriviste Boise State along with San Diego State pack their bags and head east. To see last year's Mountain West preview, click here.

Norm Chow: Offensive Genius?
After years of waiting, Norm Chow finally has the keys to his very own football team. At the age of 66, Chow will make his debut as a head coach when his Hawaii Warriors take on Southern Cal on September 1st. Thanks to Chow's time at Southern Cal (offensive coordinator there from 2001-2004) in addition to his stint at NC State tutoring Philip Rivers (2000) and a lifetime as an assistant at BYU (served the Cougars in some capacity from 1973 to 1999), Chow has developed the reputation as an offensive guru. However, since returning to the college game after a three-year stint as the offensive coordinator for the Tennessee Titans (2005-2007), his guru label may be wearing thin. Chow returned to southern California in 2008, but this time it was as offensive coordinator of the cross-town UCLA Bruins. Chow spent three seasons there before become Utah's offensive coordinator in 2011. The table below summarizes his team's offensive capabilities based on SDPI. For the uninitiated, SDPI takes into account how many yards a team gains against their conference opponents. A positive ranking is good. A negative ranking is bad. The number represents how many standard deviations the offense was above or below-average when compared to the average team in the conference.

It doesn't take a master statistician to read that table. Chow's team consistently ranked in the bottom half of the Pac-10 and later the Pac-12 in terms of gaining yards, with a bottoming out in Utah this past season. However, sometimes yardage totals don't tell the whole story. Let's look at how many offensive touchdowns his teams scored against their Pac-10/12 brethren since 2008.

Again Chow's charges rank consistently below average. In fact, in 36 conference games across four seasons, his teams averaged less than two offensive touchdowns per game (1.92). Obviously that is far from an impressive number.
Most of Chow's reputation as an offensive guru likely stemmed from the talent of the players he got to coach. Philip Rivers, Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush, LenDale White, Carson Palmer, Mike Williams, and Keary Colbert, were all NFL-quality players. Chow will not have top-shelf at Hawaii, so it is unlikely he will be able to produce a top-shelf offense.

2012 Conference USA Preview

We have finished our trek through the BCS conference, so now we turn our focus to the little guys. First up, Conference USA. To see last year's Conference USA post, click here.

East

 West

Bowl Spots and Postseason Bans
The recent news that Central Florida will be ineligible for the postseason in 2012 could mean there are not enough bowl eligible teams to fill all the available bowl spots come December. Let's do some simple math to show you what I mean. There are currently 35 bowl games, ranging from the prestigious Rose Bowl, to the less prestigious Fight Hunger Bowl. That means 70 teams need to have at least six wins (with five coming against IA teams). How did things shake out last season? There were 74 bowl eligible teams (75 had six wins if we include Eastern Michigan and their pair of wins over IAA schools). Of those 74 teams, two were ineligible for the postseason (Miami and Southern Cal). Thus there were two extra teams that were not invited to the postseason (Ball State and Western Kentucky). While there were only two teams ineligible for the postseason last year, this year there are four. Perhaps most troubling to the bowl organizers, each of the four teams (Central Florida, North Carolina, Ohio State, and Penn State) are somewhere between likely and very likely to attain the necessary six wins to qualify for the postseason. In addition, while Miami self-imposed the postseason ban last season in hopes of lessening the NCAA's eventual punishment, the possibility of the hammer dropping for the Nevin Shapiro scandal is very real. The NCAA may be forced to allow one of the four new IA teams in the process of reclassification (Massachusetts, South Alabama, Texas-San Antonio, and Texas State) to play in the postseason if they achieve the requisite six wins. Or we could see a 6-6 team with multiple wins over IAA schools allowed to play via a waiver. Finally, if those two options do not exist, we may see a 5-7 team 'rewarded' for their season with a postseason trip. Either way, keep an eye out for the number of teams that get to six wins (excluding Central Florida, North Carolina, Ohio State, Penn State, and possibly Miami), and remember, the magic number is 70.

2012 SEC Preview

The countdown is under four weeks. And after today, our BCS conference previews are concluded. We'll start with Conference USA early next week. To see last year's SEC preview, click here. 

East

 

 

 

 

 

 West

 

V-Bilt This City: How to Rationalize Vandy Winning the East
The preseason is the time for unbridled optimism. Fans of teams that know they are going to be good dream of winning their conference or national title. Fans of teams that think they are going to be good come up with all sorts of scenarios and permutations of their team winning the conference or national title. Even fans of teams that know they are not going to be good come up with scenarios and permutations where their team achieves bowl eligibility. Personally, I try to ground my preseason predictions in at least a little bit of reality. Thus, what follows is not a rationalization of something that I think will happen, but of something that is more likely to happen than most people believe: Vandy playing in the SEC Championship Game.
Based on a precursory internet search, Vanderbilt is roughly a 100-1 longshot to win the SEC East, meaning oddsmakers deem it a very unlikely outcome. Here are three reasons they are wrong.
1. Vanderbilt was actually a solid team last season.
Based on their scoring and yardage margins, a team with Vanderbilt's statistical profile could have expected to finish 4-4 in the SEC last season. Vandy finished 2-6. Thus, they are somewhat undervalued heading into 2012.
2. Vanderbilt plays in the SEC East.
The SEC is by far the strongest conference in the country. However, the core of that strength is concentrated in the West. Alabama and LSU are two of the best teams in the nation. Arkansas is a top-20 team, newcomer Texas A&M has been steadily progressing (record be damned), and Auburn won the national title in 2010. Even the two Mississippi schools have had varying levels of success in the recent past. In the East, the three traditional powers, Florida, Georgia, and Tennessee, have all stumbled over the past few seasons. South Carolina is a nouveau riche program, Missouri is a consistent winner, but not an elite program, and the bottom may have just fallen out of the Kentucky program.
3. Look at the schedule.
Vanderbilt has one of the more forgivable SEC schedules of recent memory. They must face the six other members of the SEC East, but from the West, they draw Ole Miss and Auburn. No Alabama. No LSU. No Arkansas. No Texas A&M. The only other East team conferred a similar advantage is Georgia. The Bulldogs also draw both Ole Miss and Auburn from the West. That's one of the reasons Georgia is projected to repeat as the SEC East champ.
I'm not saying Vanderbilt will win the East, but this is their best shot. We'll know very soon whether they are contenders as they host South Carolina on the opening Thursday of the season.

2012 Pac-12 Preview

One month to go. We can see the light at the end of the tunnel. In today's preview, we examine the Pac-12, a league that hopes to celebrate the return of one of their traditional powers off probation. To see last year's Pac-12 preview, click here.

North

South

Ducks or Trojans?
Yes, believe it or not, the Trojans from Southern California have not won a Pac-10/12 championship since 2008. In their stead, the Oregon Ducks have captured three straight league championships while posting a 25-2 conference record over that span. Having an inquisitive mind, I wanted to see how this compared to the most dominant three-year stretch Southern Cal enjoyed last decade. While the Trojans won outright or tied for seven straight Pac-10 titles beginning in 2002, their most dominant three-year stretch was from 2003-2005. During that span, the Trojans went 23-1 in league play, won a shared national title, won an outright national title (later vacated), and played for another national title. While Oregon has won three consecutive Pac-10/12 titles, they have not won a national title, and are just 1-2 in their BCS appearances. On the surface the Trojans appear to be the more dominant team. Before we crown them though, let's look inside the numbers. To calculate how dominant each team was, I looked at how they fared against their conference competition. The results are summarized in the following table.

As you can see, Oregon matches and exceeds Southern Cal in terms of offensive production, averaging an incredible 43.6 points per game against their Pac-10/12 mates. However, the Trojans are untouchable on the defensive side of the ball. While the Ducks have allowed a solid 23 points per game, Southern Cal allowed just 17.8 during their incredible three-year run. Not to take anything away from Oregon, but the Trojans in the middle part of the last decade were a cut above.