After reading this article wherein the author suggests the WAC and Mountain West should combine to form a super (big) conference I was a little confused. What the author fails to realize, is that this already happened. From 1996-1998, the WAC featured 16 teams and a Championship Game. In 1999, 8 teams left and formed the Mountain West. And the rest as they say, is history. However, the article did give me an idea for creating a 7th BCS conference. It's fairly obvious the cream of the Mountain West and WAC can compete with most teams in the nation. The top of the SEC and Big 12 and the very top of the Pac-10 and Big 10 are clearly better, but the top of both the Mountain West and WAC are as good as those top teams in the ACC and Big East. What brings the conferences down is the soft underbelly. Idaho and Utah State are horrible in the WAC and New Mexico State is not much better. Meanwhile, in the Mountain West, Wyoming and San Diego State have 2 IA wins between. So the smart thing for those presidents at schools like TCU and Boise State to do is cut the dead weight. Make some back room deals with schools like BYU and Utah and form a new western league--the Alpine West-- and then lobby for your own automatic BCS bid. So who's in?
TCU--The Horned Frogs have played in 9 bowl games over the past 10 seasons and have won 11 games 5 times in that span. Plus they have notched several wins over BCS-conference schools over the last 5 years (Baylor, Stanford, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Iowa State, and Northwestern).
Utah--Over the past 15 seasons, the Utes have posted a winning record 13 times. They have played in 5 straight bowl games and were the first non-BCS team to play in a BCS bowl game.
BYU--3 straight bowl trips after a brief dip at the beginning of this century. Arguably the best history of any non-BCS conference team, complete with a Hall of Fame coach and national title.
New Mexico--5 bowl games in the past 6 seasons. Get the nod over Air Force because, while the Falcons are clearly a very good team now, the margin of error for a service academy is very thin. When/if Troy Calhoun leaves, the Falcons could level off.
UNLV--Location. Location. Location. The Rebels don't have any real football history to offer, but Vegas attracts its fair share of visitors.
Boise State--10 straight winning seasons, 7 seasons of at least 10 wins in the past 9, and a BCS bowl appearance. The Broncos are the 'name brand' mid-major program.
Fresno State--A little overrated, but the Bulldogs have played in 8 bowl games in the past 9 seasons. The Bulldogs have a well-deserved rep for taking on all comers, and occasionally they win those games. Another 'name brand' mid-major despite not appearing in a BCS bowl game.
Nevada--3 straight bowl games and an active Hall of Fame coach. Also are a good natural rival for UNLV. Get the nod over Hawaii to allow the conference to save on travel.
This gives you an 8 team conference that is at worst, on par with the Big East. Also, since each member plays only 7 conference games, there is more opportunity for marquee non-conference matchups. Of course, if these teams merge, there will probably be some pissed off university presisdents in San Jose, Las Cruces, Moscow, Logan, Honolulu, Ruston, Colorado Springs, San Diego, Fort Collins, and Laramie. What would become of those teams? Good question. And that is the proverbial fly in the ointment, likely preventing this partial merger from happening. But of course, you just never know.
Monday, October 27, 2008
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Fab Five: Week IX
Last week I once again went 6-4, bringing my seasonal record to 44-33-3. One again, the goal for this week is 7 wins. (home teams in Bold).
5 Dogs I Like
Last Week: 2-3
Overall: 27-12-1
Duke +10.5 Vanderbilt
The 'Nerd Bowl' is a much bigger game that it may have appeared before the season started. Vanderbilt needs just a single win to garner bowl eligibility for the first time since 1982. A win for Duke would give them a winning record this late in the season for the first time since 1994, and make a bowl bid at least a plausibility if not a possibility. Both teams come into this contest on two-game losing streaks. Duke has fallen to Georgia Tech and Miami after beginning the season 3-1 and Vanderbilt has dropped games against Mississippi State and Georgia. A precursory look at yardage statistics reveals that Vandy has done their damage with smoke and mirrors. The Commodores are currently averaging only 249 yards per game on offense (ahead of only UCF in the NCAA). Duke is far from an offensive juggernaut, but they are averaging 326 yards per game (87th in the nation). Vandy does have a legit defense, holding opponents to 334 yards per game (45th in the nation), but it is not appreciably better than the 350 yards per game Duke allows (57th in the nation). Vanderbilt has built their record on a great turnover margin (+9 in their 5 wins) and a little bit of luck--opponents have made only 6 of 11 field goal attempts and the Commodores are 3-1 in one-possession games. Vandy may well get to bowl eligibility against Duke on Saturday, but this game should be much closer than 10 points.
Rutgers +10 Pitt
On the surface this game appears to be a total mismatch. The team with the inside track to the Big East title versus a team basically reduced to playing out the string. However, while Rutgers is by no means a good team, 3 of their 5 losses have come by 7 points or less, and each loss has come to a likely bowl team. Quarterback Mike Teel has been far from productive this season, but in the past 3 games (all against Big East foes), he has avoided throwing an interception. Each of those games have come down to the wire, with the Knights winning only one. The Rutgers defense has also improved recently, allowing only 130 yards on the ground and 3.32 yards per rush over their last 3 games after allowing 212 rushing yards per game and 4.96 yards per rush in the their first 3. If the Knights can contain Pitt running back LeSean McCoy, who is averaging 149 yards on the ground and over 6 yards per rush over his last 3 games, they stand a great chance of being in this game until the end.
SMU +12 Navy
Don't look now, but June Jones run-n-shoot offense is starting to click down in Dallas. After averaging only 302 yards per game in their first 5 contests against IA foes, the Ponies have averaged 442 yards per game over their last 2. The defense is still terrible, having allowed an average of 502 yards per game (dead last in the NCAA), but the offense was good enough to keep the team in close losses to both Tulsa and Houston the past 2 weeks. Navy won't have a problem moving the ball against the pourous SMU defense, and could conceivably top 500 yards on the ground. However, with the exception of Wake Forest and perhaps IAA Towson, every team has moved the ball with ease against the Navy defense. The defense is a little overrated statistically (91st in the nation allowing 401 yards per game) thanks to the ability of the offense to control the clock and limit opponents possessions. Navy ranks 100th nationally in yards allowed per play, permitting a shade over 6 yards per play. This one should be quite entertaining, and SMU should keep it close.
Kentucky +26 Florida
Kentucky's defense is a little overrated thanks to their pillow-soft non-conference schedule. However, even when accessing their prowess against SEC teams, its clear this is the best Kentucky defense in a long time. In 3 SEC games, the Wildcats have allowed only 355 yards per game, a figure that would still rank 61st in the nation. The Florida offense is rounding into fine form, averaging 477 yards per game over their past 3. Florida will move the ball against Kentucky and the Wildcats have several key injuries that will limit their already weak offense, but this spread is just too big to take the Gators.
Middle Tennessee State +1o Mississippi State
Its been a somewhat disappointing season for the Blue Raiders who are already 1-3 in Sun Belt play, likely keeping them home for the holidays no matter what happens the rest of the way. However, outside the league, Middle Tennessee has upset Maryland and lost by 6 to Kentucky. Mississippi State is exactly the type of team Middle Tennessee could potentially knock off. The Bulldogs offense is atrocious, averaging only 285 yards per game (111th in the nation--or Vanderbilt on steroids), but they are quite stout defensively. The Bulldogs are allowing opponents only 292 yards per game (22nd in the nation). Middle Tennessee State is far from a good team, but they should be able to hang around against a team with an offense this lousy.
Overall: 27-12-1
Duke +10.5 Vanderbilt
The 'Nerd Bowl' is a much bigger game that it may have appeared before the season started. Vanderbilt needs just a single win to garner bowl eligibility for the first time since 1982. A win for Duke would give them a winning record this late in the season for the first time since 1994, and make a bowl bid at least a plausibility if not a possibility. Both teams come into this contest on two-game losing streaks. Duke has fallen to Georgia Tech and Miami after beginning the season 3-1 and Vanderbilt has dropped games against Mississippi State and Georgia. A precursory look at yardage statistics reveals that Vandy has done their damage with smoke and mirrors. The Commodores are currently averaging only 249 yards per game on offense (ahead of only UCF in the NCAA). Duke is far from an offensive juggernaut, but they are averaging 326 yards per game (87th in the nation). Vandy does have a legit defense, holding opponents to 334 yards per game (45th in the nation), but it is not appreciably better than the 350 yards per game Duke allows (57th in the nation). Vanderbilt has built their record on a great turnover margin (+9 in their 5 wins) and a little bit of luck--opponents have made only 6 of 11 field goal attempts and the Commodores are 3-1 in one-possession games. Vandy may well get to bowl eligibility against Duke on Saturday, but this game should be much closer than 10 points.
Rutgers +10 Pitt
On the surface this game appears to be a total mismatch. The team with the inside track to the Big East title versus a team basically reduced to playing out the string. However, while Rutgers is by no means a good team, 3 of their 5 losses have come by 7 points or less, and each loss has come to a likely bowl team. Quarterback Mike Teel has been far from productive this season, but in the past 3 games (all against Big East foes), he has avoided throwing an interception. Each of those games have come down to the wire, with the Knights winning only one. The Rutgers defense has also improved recently, allowing only 130 yards on the ground and 3.32 yards per rush over their last 3 games after allowing 212 rushing yards per game and 4.96 yards per rush in the their first 3. If the Knights can contain Pitt running back LeSean McCoy, who is averaging 149 yards on the ground and over 6 yards per rush over his last 3 games, they stand a great chance of being in this game until the end.
SMU +12 Navy
Don't look now, but June Jones run-n-shoot offense is starting to click down in Dallas. After averaging only 302 yards per game in their first 5 contests against IA foes, the Ponies have averaged 442 yards per game over their last 2. The defense is still terrible, having allowed an average of 502 yards per game (dead last in the NCAA), but the offense was good enough to keep the team in close losses to both Tulsa and Houston the past 2 weeks. Navy won't have a problem moving the ball against the pourous SMU defense, and could conceivably top 500 yards on the ground. However, with the exception of Wake Forest and perhaps IAA Towson, every team has moved the ball with ease against the Navy defense. The defense is a little overrated statistically (91st in the nation allowing 401 yards per game) thanks to the ability of the offense to control the clock and limit opponents possessions. Navy ranks 100th nationally in yards allowed per play, permitting a shade over 6 yards per play. This one should be quite entertaining, and SMU should keep it close.
Kentucky +26 Florida
Kentucky's defense is a little overrated thanks to their pillow-soft non-conference schedule. However, even when accessing their prowess against SEC teams, its clear this is the best Kentucky defense in a long time. In 3 SEC games, the Wildcats have allowed only 355 yards per game, a figure that would still rank 61st in the nation. The Florida offense is rounding into fine form, averaging 477 yards per game over their past 3. Florida will move the ball against Kentucky and the Wildcats have several key injuries that will limit their already weak offense, but this spread is just too big to take the Gators.
Middle Tennessee State +1o Mississippi State
Its been a somewhat disappointing season for the Blue Raiders who are already 1-3 in Sun Belt play, likely keeping them home for the holidays no matter what happens the rest of the way. However, outside the league, Middle Tennessee has upset Maryland and lost by 6 to Kentucky. Mississippi State is exactly the type of team Middle Tennessee could potentially knock off. The Bulldogs offense is atrocious, averaging only 285 yards per game (111th in the nation--or Vanderbilt on steroids), but they are quite stout defensively. The Bulldogs are allowing opponents only 292 yards per game (22nd in the nation). Middle Tennessee State is far from a good team, but they should be able to hang around against a team with an offense this lousy.
Five Faves I Like
Last Week: 4-1
Overall: 17-21-2
Nebraska -12 Baylor
After consecutive home losses to Virginia Tech and Missouri, the Huskers dropped off the national radar. Many casual observers probably missed perhaps their two most impressive performances over the past two weeks--a close loss at Texas Tech and a blowout win against Iowa State. The Huskers had their two best offensive performances thus far against BCS-conference foes in those two games, gaining 1019 yards. The Huskers welcome Baylor to Memorial Stadium on Saturday. Since the Big 12 was formed in 1996, the Huskers are 6-0 versus Baylor, winning by an average of over 36 points per game (over 46 points per game at home). Baylor is certainly new and improved under head coach Art Briles and quarterback Robert Griffin, but Nebraska should win comfortably at home.
Army -2.5 Louisiana Tech
If there was ny doubt that option football is what the service academies need to be successful, just take a look at the Black Knights. In Stan Brock's first season as head coach in 2007, he scrapped the option attack and tried to implement a more pro-style offense. The results were disastrous. The Knights went 3-9 (their 11th consecutive losing season) and the offense averaged 276 yards per game (116th in the nation). Brock brought back the option this season and after a rough start the team has improved. The Knights began the season 0-4, with offensive averages of 264 yards per game and 3.91 yards per play. In their last three games (of which they have won two), the Knights have averaged 349 yards per game and 6.12 yards per play. In fact, the option has been so good, Army defeated Eastern Michigan without completing a single pass. Army should take care of business at home against a Louisiana Tech team that ranks 119th (or next to last) in the nation in pass efficiency.
Cincinnati -2.5 Connecticut
The Bearcats should have quarterback Tony Pike back for this game. Pike, as you may remember, replaced Dustin Grutza who was injured in the second game of the season against Oklahoma. Grutza, as you may remember, replaced Ben Mauk who quarterbacked the Bearcats last season, but was denied a 6th year of eligibility by the NCAA multiple times in the offseason. Outside of the whipping the Sooners laid on them in Norman, the Cincinnati defense has been pretty solid, allowing only 295 yards per game to IA foes not quarterbacked by Sam Bradford. The Connecticut quarterback, Zach Frazer, is about as far removed from Sam Bradford as one can get. Frazer himself is also replacing an injured starting quarterback in Tyler Lorenzen. Connecticut will do what they always do, which is pound Donald Brown (nation's leading rusher), play solid defense, and capitalize on mistakes. Without a competent passing game, it won't be enough to get by Cincinnati.
Central Michigan -4 Toledo
This game could be billed as a changing of the guard in the Toledo Glass Bowl. From 2000-2005, Toledo was arguably the top program in the MAC. The Rockets were 55-19 over those 6 seasons (38-9 in MAC play) with a conference title and four bowl appearances. In the two and a half seasons since then, they have gone 12-19 (7-12 in MAC play) and their once mighty homefield advantage has been reduced to rubble (0-3 at home this season). On the other hand, Central Michigan has gone 23-12 over the past two and a half seasons (17-2 in MAC play) with consecutive MAC titles and bowl appearances. Toledo's offense, outside of a 598 yard outburst against Fresno State, has averaged a paltry 268 yards per game in their other six contests. Central Michigan should do enough to cover this number even if star quarterback Dan LeFevour is out of action.
New Mexico State -13 Idaho
New Mexico State coach Hal Mumme is probably licking his chops at the prospect of calling plays against a secondary as emabttled as the one Idaho currently employs (in the metaphorical sense of course). The Vandals have allowed opposing quarterbacks to post an efficiency rating of 153.63 (114th in the nation) and have allowed 22 touchdown passes on the season (only North Texas and SMU have allowed more). Look for New Mexico State to roll in the Kibbie Dome.
Overall: 17-21-2
Nebraska -12 Baylor
After consecutive home losses to Virginia Tech and Missouri, the Huskers dropped off the national radar. Many casual observers probably missed perhaps their two most impressive performances over the past two weeks--a close loss at Texas Tech and a blowout win against Iowa State. The Huskers had their two best offensive performances thus far against BCS-conference foes in those two games, gaining 1019 yards. The Huskers welcome Baylor to Memorial Stadium on Saturday. Since the Big 12 was formed in 1996, the Huskers are 6-0 versus Baylor, winning by an average of over 36 points per game (over 46 points per game at home). Baylor is certainly new and improved under head coach Art Briles and quarterback Robert Griffin, but Nebraska should win comfortably at home.
Army -2.5 Louisiana Tech
If there was ny doubt that option football is what the service academies need to be successful, just take a look at the Black Knights. In Stan Brock's first season as head coach in 2007, he scrapped the option attack and tried to implement a more pro-style offense. The results were disastrous. The Knights went 3-9 (their 11th consecutive losing season) and the offense averaged 276 yards per game (116th in the nation). Brock brought back the option this season and after a rough start the team has improved. The Knights began the season 0-4, with offensive averages of 264 yards per game and 3.91 yards per play. In their last three games (of which they have won two), the Knights have averaged 349 yards per game and 6.12 yards per play. In fact, the option has been so good, Army defeated Eastern Michigan without completing a single pass. Army should take care of business at home against a Louisiana Tech team that ranks 119th (or next to last) in the nation in pass efficiency.
Cincinnati -2.5 Connecticut
The Bearcats should have quarterback Tony Pike back for this game. Pike, as you may remember, replaced Dustin Grutza who was injured in the second game of the season against Oklahoma. Grutza, as you may remember, replaced Ben Mauk who quarterbacked the Bearcats last season, but was denied a 6th year of eligibility by the NCAA multiple times in the offseason. Outside of the whipping the Sooners laid on them in Norman, the Cincinnati defense has been pretty solid, allowing only 295 yards per game to IA foes not quarterbacked by Sam Bradford. The Connecticut quarterback, Zach Frazer, is about as far removed from Sam Bradford as one can get. Frazer himself is also replacing an injured starting quarterback in Tyler Lorenzen. Connecticut will do what they always do, which is pound Donald Brown (nation's leading rusher), play solid defense, and capitalize on mistakes. Without a competent passing game, it won't be enough to get by Cincinnati.
Central Michigan -4 Toledo
This game could be billed as a changing of the guard in the Toledo Glass Bowl. From 2000-2005, Toledo was arguably the top program in the MAC. The Rockets were 55-19 over those 6 seasons (38-9 in MAC play) with a conference title and four bowl appearances. In the two and a half seasons since then, they have gone 12-19 (7-12 in MAC play) and their once mighty homefield advantage has been reduced to rubble (0-3 at home this season). On the other hand, Central Michigan has gone 23-12 over the past two and a half seasons (17-2 in MAC play) with consecutive MAC titles and bowl appearances. Toledo's offense, outside of a 598 yard outburst against Fresno State, has averaged a paltry 268 yards per game in their other six contests. Central Michigan should do enough to cover this number even if star quarterback Dan LeFevour is out of action.
New Mexico State -13 Idaho
New Mexico State coach Hal Mumme is probably licking his chops at the prospect of calling plays against a secondary as emabttled as the one Idaho currently employs (in the metaphorical sense of course). The Vandals have allowed opposing quarterbacks to post an efficiency rating of 153.63 (114th in the nation) and have allowed 22 touchdown passes on the season (only North Texas and SMU have allowed more). Look for New Mexico State to roll in the Kibbie Dome.
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Second Half Bears and Bulls
With each college football team having played at least 6 games at this point, I thought it would be a good idea to take a stab at determining which teams will sizzle and which teams will fizzle in the second half. We'll begin by examining a few teams that are likely to see their record falter as the leaves turn.
Minnesota:
Record: 6-1 (2-1 Big 10)
After 7 games, the Golden Gophers are already bowl-eligible, a feat few deemed possible, especially this early in the season. The 1-11 debacle (and winless Big 10 campaign) of 2007 has been quickly forgotten. But, let's not go heralding the Gophers as this year's Illinois just yet. Minnesota's 4 wins outside the league were over Northern Illinois (a solid 4-3 MAC school), Bowling Green (a not-so solid 3-4 MAC school), Montana State (IAA), and Florida Atlantic (a 2-5 Sun Belt school). In Big 10 play, the Gophers knocked off Indiana (only one win versus a IA foe) and Illinois (4-3) and lost to Ohio State (7-1). However, in those 3 Big 10 games, the Gophers are only averaging 304 yards per game, while allowing an average of 419 yards per game. The biggest difference between this season and last is that the Gophers have forced 20 turnovers in just 7 games after forcing only 14 all of last season. Turnovers are a significant determinant of wins and losses in football games, but they are also very random events. If Minnesota's turnover capabilities dip, their record should follow suit.
Vanderbilt
Record: 5-2 (3-2 SEC)
Vanderbilt's ranking in total offense is ..drum roll... 119th in Division IA. Only UCF has been worse moving the ball. Vanderbilt's defense is a very respectable 45th, but with the struggles the offense has gone through--after netting 360 yards in the opener against Miami (Ohio), the unit has averaged 231 yards per game--Vandy will still struggle to get to bowl eligibility. Vandy's remaining schedule includes an improved Duke team, Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Wake Forest. And speaking of...
Wake Forest
Record: 4-2 (2-1 ACC)
In 3 ACC games, Wake Forest has scored exactly 1 touchdown. In the Deacons first 2 games (against Baylor and Ole Miss), they scored 71 points and averaged 362 yards. In their next 4 games (Florida State, Navy, Clemson, and Maryland), the Deacons have scored 41 points and averaged 288 yards per game. One is an accident. Two is a trend. Three is a problem. So what is four? A debacle. Last season Wake averaged 340 yards per game. Nothing spectacular. This season, that average has dropped to 312. However, in 2007, the Deacons also scored 10 defensive or special teams touchdowns. This season they have scored zero. Thus that small drop in yardage has led to a huge drop in points (from 27.8 per game to 18.7). Wake Forest is not an ACC title contender and will be fortunate to eke out 7 regular season wins.
And now, who is ready to turn the corner? What improved team is hiding behind a pitiful won/loss record?
SMU
Record: 1-7 (0-5 Conference USA)
Well, its guaranteed SMU will go yet another season without a bowl bid, but if you look closely, you can see some minor improvement. In their first 5 games, the June Jones run-n-shoot was averaging only 313 yards per game. If we remove the win over Texas State (IAA), that number drops to 283 per game. In their last 3 games, the Pony Express is averaging 419 yards per game. The main reason is the improved play of freshman quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell. In the first 5 games, Mitchell completed 54.9% of his passes, averaged 6.7 yards per pass, and threw 14 touchdowns versus 12 interceptions. Once again if we remove the Texas State game, those numbers drop to 52.7%, 6 yards per pass, and 9 touchdowns versus 12 interceptions. In the last 3 games, Mitchell has completed 64.7% of his passes, averaged 8.7 yards per pass, and thrown 9 touchdowns versus 6 interceptions. The past 2 weeks, the Mustangs have come close to breaking through for their first win over a IA opponent, losing by 6 against both Tulsa and Houston. While Jones' offense has finally clicked, the defense has remained putrid, allowing over 1100 yards the past 2 weeks. Still, with 4 games left to play, there is ample opportunity for the Mustangs to win 2 or 3 games against Navy, Memphis, UTEP, and Southern Miss.
Iowa
Record: 5-3 (2-2 Big 10)
After 3 straight losses following a 3-0 start, the Hawkeyes looked like an afterthought in the Big 10 race. However, it should be noted each loss came by 5 points or fewer and the Hawkeyes actually outgained all 3 teams. The Hawkeyes stumbled because they were -5 in turnover margin over that span. Incredibly, they lost 7 fumbles in those 3 games (while gaining only one) and for the season have recovered only 38% of total fumbles (average is 50%). Look for that trend to reverse somewhat over the final 3rd of the season. In addition, the Hawkeyes also boast the nation's 3rd leading rusher in junior back Shonn Greene. Greene is averaging 144 yards per game and over 6.5 yards per rush. Many folks think Penn State's last big hurdle is this week in Columbus, but they should be very wary of the November 8th clash in Iowa City.
Ohio
Record: 2-5 (1-2 MAC)
The Bobcats have truly been road warriors in 2008. 5 of their first 7 games (and soon to be 5 of 8 after tonight) have been on the road. The Bobcats lost by a single point at Wyoming, led Ohio State in the second half, lost by 3 to Central Michigan, and lost by 8 to Northwestern. They have outgained their opponents on the year and have the profile of a team with a 4-3 record. If they can survive what should be a defensive slugfest at Temple tonight, they would have no losses within the division with 3 of their final 4 regular season games at home.
Minnesota:
Record: 6-1 (2-1 Big 10)
After 7 games, the Golden Gophers are already bowl-eligible, a feat few deemed possible, especially this early in the season. The 1-11 debacle (and winless Big 10 campaign) of 2007 has been quickly forgotten. But, let's not go heralding the Gophers as this year's Illinois just yet. Minnesota's 4 wins outside the league were over Northern Illinois (a solid 4-3 MAC school), Bowling Green (a not-so solid 3-4 MAC school), Montana State (IAA), and Florida Atlantic (a 2-5 Sun Belt school). In Big 10 play, the Gophers knocked off Indiana (only one win versus a IA foe) and Illinois (4-3) and lost to Ohio State (7-1). However, in those 3 Big 10 games, the Gophers are only averaging 304 yards per game, while allowing an average of 419 yards per game. The biggest difference between this season and last is that the Gophers have forced 20 turnovers in just 7 games after forcing only 14 all of last season. Turnovers are a significant determinant of wins and losses in football games, but they are also very random events. If Minnesota's turnover capabilities dip, their record should follow suit.
Vanderbilt
Record: 5-2 (3-2 SEC)
Vanderbilt's ranking in total offense is ..drum roll... 119th in Division IA. Only UCF has been worse moving the ball. Vanderbilt's defense is a very respectable 45th, but with the struggles the offense has gone through--after netting 360 yards in the opener against Miami (Ohio), the unit has averaged 231 yards per game--Vandy will still struggle to get to bowl eligibility. Vandy's remaining schedule includes an improved Duke team, Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Wake Forest. And speaking of...
Wake Forest
Record: 4-2 (2-1 ACC)
In 3 ACC games, Wake Forest has scored exactly 1 touchdown. In the Deacons first 2 games (against Baylor and Ole Miss), they scored 71 points and averaged 362 yards. In their next 4 games (Florida State, Navy, Clemson, and Maryland), the Deacons have scored 41 points and averaged 288 yards per game. One is an accident. Two is a trend. Three is a problem. So what is four? A debacle. Last season Wake averaged 340 yards per game. Nothing spectacular. This season, that average has dropped to 312. However, in 2007, the Deacons also scored 10 defensive or special teams touchdowns. This season they have scored zero. Thus that small drop in yardage has led to a huge drop in points (from 27.8 per game to 18.7). Wake Forest is not an ACC title contender and will be fortunate to eke out 7 regular season wins.
And now, who is ready to turn the corner? What improved team is hiding behind a pitiful won/loss record?
SMU
Record: 1-7 (0-5 Conference USA)
Well, its guaranteed SMU will go yet another season without a bowl bid, but if you look closely, you can see some minor improvement. In their first 5 games, the June Jones run-n-shoot was averaging only 313 yards per game. If we remove the win over Texas State (IAA), that number drops to 283 per game. In their last 3 games, the Pony Express is averaging 419 yards per game. The main reason is the improved play of freshman quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell. In the first 5 games, Mitchell completed 54.9% of his passes, averaged 6.7 yards per pass, and threw 14 touchdowns versus 12 interceptions. Once again if we remove the Texas State game, those numbers drop to 52.7%, 6 yards per pass, and 9 touchdowns versus 12 interceptions. In the last 3 games, Mitchell has completed 64.7% of his passes, averaged 8.7 yards per pass, and thrown 9 touchdowns versus 6 interceptions. The past 2 weeks, the Mustangs have come close to breaking through for their first win over a IA opponent, losing by 6 against both Tulsa and Houston. While Jones' offense has finally clicked, the defense has remained putrid, allowing over 1100 yards the past 2 weeks. Still, with 4 games left to play, there is ample opportunity for the Mustangs to win 2 or 3 games against Navy, Memphis, UTEP, and Southern Miss.
Iowa
Record: 5-3 (2-2 Big 10)
After 3 straight losses following a 3-0 start, the Hawkeyes looked like an afterthought in the Big 10 race. However, it should be noted each loss came by 5 points or fewer and the Hawkeyes actually outgained all 3 teams. The Hawkeyes stumbled because they were -5 in turnover margin over that span. Incredibly, they lost 7 fumbles in those 3 games (while gaining only one) and for the season have recovered only 38% of total fumbles (average is 50%). Look for that trend to reverse somewhat over the final 3rd of the season. In addition, the Hawkeyes also boast the nation's 3rd leading rusher in junior back Shonn Greene. Greene is averaging 144 yards per game and over 6.5 yards per rush. Many folks think Penn State's last big hurdle is this week in Columbus, but they should be very wary of the November 8th clash in Iowa City.
Ohio
Record: 2-5 (1-2 MAC)
The Bobcats have truly been road warriors in 2008. 5 of their first 7 games (and soon to be 5 of 8 after tonight) have been on the road. The Bobcats lost by a single point at Wyoming, led Ohio State in the second half, lost by 3 to Central Michigan, and lost by 8 to Northwestern. They have outgained their opponents on the year and have the profile of a team with a 4-3 record. If they can survive what should be a defensive slugfest at Temple tonight, they would have no losses within the division with 3 of their final 4 regular season games at home.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Fab Five: Week VIII
Last week I went 6-4, bringing my seasonal record to 38-29-3. The goal is 7 wins this week. (home teams in Bold).
5 Dogs I Like
Last Week: 4-1
Overall: 25-9-1
Memphis +8.5 East Carolina
I think its safe to say the bloom is off the Skip Holtz rose. After opening the season with 3 straight victories (2 over ranked BCS-conference foes), the Pirates have dropped 3 straight. 2 have come to ACC teams, albeit ACC teams that may well be at home for the holidays. East Carolina has been outscored (by 8 points) and outgained on the season (by 227 yards), so their profile befits a 3-3 team. The Pirates have yet to gain more than 386 yards in any game and currently rank 81st in yards per game. The defense, which was pretty stout in the first 3 games (allowing only 269 yards per game) has regressed (allowing 478 yards per game over the previous 3 contests). Meanwhile, Memphis has a poorer record (3-4), but may have the better team. 3 of the Tigers 4 defeats have come by one possession. The Tigers have outgained their 7 opponents by 716 yards on the season so they could easily stand 5-2 or even 6-1. The Tigers nearly upset Louisville last week, but lost thanks to 3 non-offensive touchdowns by the Cardinals. Louisville returned a kickoff, blocked field goal, and returned a fumble for a touchdown against Memphis, yet won by only 7 points. Memphis is a good team and getting more than a touchdown makes them a very safe play this weekend.
Southern Miss +3.5 Rice
What a difference a year makes. Last season Rice upset Southern Miss, but coming into the game they were 20-point underdogs. Now they find themslves in the unfamiliar position of favorite. A win by Rice would be their 4th of the season (3rd in conference play) and put them within spitting distance of bowl eligibility. Rice has a very good offense, led by senior quarterback Chase Clement, senior wide receiver Jarett Dillard, and sophmore H-back James Casey. The Owls currently average 429 yards per game (24th in the nation). Unfortunately, the other side of the ball is not as strong. The Owls currently allow 466 yards per game (114th in the nation). Forcing turnovers is the only thing Rice does well on defense, having gained 16 through 6 games (tied for 8th in the nation). Southern Miss has stumbled somewhat out of the gate, winning only 2 of their first 6 games under new coach Larry Fedora. The Golden Eagles are also 0-2 in conference play and need this game in a bad way. The 2 conference losses have been close (by 10 total points) and the Eagles have only been non-competitive in losses to Auburn and Boise State. Running back Damion Fletcher, currently averaging nearly 6 yards per carry, should plow through the pourous Rice defense and if the Golden Eagles can limit their turnovers, they should walk out of Texas with a straight up win.
Ole Miss +13 Alabama
How well does the Tide stand prosperity? This game will go a long way toward determining that. With the Auburn Tigers suddenly becoming paper tigers, this game and the road trip to LSU next month are the biggest stumbling blocks before the SEC Championship Game. Alabama's offense may get a lot of the credit for their 6-0 start, but if we remove the Western Kentucky game when the offense exploded for 557 yards, the Tide have averaged only 343 yards in their other 5 games. The defense is Alabama's strength, having not permitted more than 324 yards in any contest. Alabama currently allows only 262 yards per game (1oth in the nation). The Rebs come into this game fresh off a bye after a disappointing home loss to South Carolina. Ole Miss may be only 3-3, but their losses have come by 2, 6, and 7 points respectively. The teams they have lost to (Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, and South Carolina) currently boast a combined 14-4 record. The reason the Rebs have failed to win those close games can be summed up in one word: turnovers. Ole Miss outgained Wake (only by 12 yards), but lost thanks to a -2 turnover margin. The Rebs outgained Vanderbilt significantly (183 yards), but were -4 in turnover margin. South Carolina outgained them by 44 yards, but the Rebs compunded their trouble by again posting a -2 turnover margin. Quarterback Jevan Snead has been a drastic improvement over whatever gardbage lined up under center in the 4 seasons after Eli Manning's departure, but he has thrown 9 interceptions in only 6 games. If he can avoid the big negative plays, Ole Miss can hang around and make things interesting in Tuscaloosa.
Colorado State +21.5 Utah
Considering how well the Rams played against TCU last week (lost 13-7), I'm surprised this spread is so high. After opening the season with a blowout loss to arch-rival Colorado and following that up with a nip-and-tuck 3-point win over IAA Sacramento State, the Rams have played pretty good football. They've beaten both Houston and UNLV, while losing to Cal and TCU. The 35-point loss to Cal is a bit exaggerated, as the Bears scored 3 non-offensive touchdowns. Utah may well be the top mid-major this season, but Colorado State should be able to stay within 3 touchdowns.
Rutgers +1 Connecticut
Less than 2 calendar years after their amazing Thursday night comeback against Louisville, the Scarlet Knights have returned to their former position at the basement of college football. While the Knights have failed to notch a single win against a IA foe, they have come close on several occasions. They have lost by 2 points to Navy, 7 points to West Virginia, and 3 points to Cincinnati. None of those teams are world-beaters, but all are likely headed to bowl games, and each contest was on the road. Returning home to face Connecticut could be just what the doctor ordered. The Scarlet Knights can lay the blame for the lost season squarely at the feet of the offense which is averaging a paltry 318 yards per game (95th in the nation). Quarterback Mike Teel has gone from an average erratic quarterback to a bad erratic quarterback. The running game has yet to find a suitable replacement for Ray Rice, and alleged super star receivers Kenny Britt and Tiquan Underwood have not a single touchdown catch between them (15 last season). The Connecticut Huskies look a lot like the 2006 Scarlet Knights. They pound opponents with the running game (Donald Brown leads the NCAA with 178 rushing yards per game), play pretty good defense (33rd in the nation allowing 306 yards per game), and win the close ones (3-0 in one-possession games). However, teams with such thin margins for error usually lay a few eggs on the season and this appears to be an ample opportunity for one. A wounded, yet proud team at home, looks like a straight up win to me.
Overall: 25-9-1
Memphis +8.5 East Carolina
I think its safe to say the bloom is off the Skip Holtz rose. After opening the season with 3 straight victories (2 over ranked BCS-conference foes), the Pirates have dropped 3 straight. 2 have come to ACC teams, albeit ACC teams that may well be at home for the holidays. East Carolina has been outscored (by 8 points) and outgained on the season (by 227 yards), so their profile befits a 3-3 team. The Pirates have yet to gain more than 386 yards in any game and currently rank 81st in yards per game. The defense, which was pretty stout in the first 3 games (allowing only 269 yards per game) has regressed (allowing 478 yards per game over the previous 3 contests). Meanwhile, Memphis has a poorer record (3-4), but may have the better team. 3 of the Tigers 4 defeats have come by one possession. The Tigers have outgained their 7 opponents by 716 yards on the season so they could easily stand 5-2 or even 6-1. The Tigers nearly upset Louisville last week, but lost thanks to 3 non-offensive touchdowns by the Cardinals. Louisville returned a kickoff, blocked field goal, and returned a fumble for a touchdown against Memphis, yet won by only 7 points. Memphis is a good team and getting more than a touchdown makes them a very safe play this weekend.
Southern Miss +3.5 Rice
What a difference a year makes. Last season Rice upset Southern Miss, but coming into the game they were 20-point underdogs. Now they find themslves in the unfamiliar position of favorite. A win by Rice would be their 4th of the season (3rd in conference play) and put them within spitting distance of bowl eligibility. Rice has a very good offense, led by senior quarterback Chase Clement, senior wide receiver Jarett Dillard, and sophmore H-back James Casey. The Owls currently average 429 yards per game (24th in the nation). Unfortunately, the other side of the ball is not as strong. The Owls currently allow 466 yards per game (114th in the nation). Forcing turnovers is the only thing Rice does well on defense, having gained 16 through 6 games (tied for 8th in the nation). Southern Miss has stumbled somewhat out of the gate, winning only 2 of their first 6 games under new coach Larry Fedora. The Golden Eagles are also 0-2 in conference play and need this game in a bad way. The 2 conference losses have been close (by 10 total points) and the Eagles have only been non-competitive in losses to Auburn and Boise State. Running back Damion Fletcher, currently averaging nearly 6 yards per carry, should plow through the pourous Rice defense and if the Golden Eagles can limit their turnovers, they should walk out of Texas with a straight up win.
Ole Miss +13 Alabama
How well does the Tide stand prosperity? This game will go a long way toward determining that. With the Auburn Tigers suddenly becoming paper tigers, this game and the road trip to LSU next month are the biggest stumbling blocks before the SEC Championship Game. Alabama's offense may get a lot of the credit for their 6-0 start, but if we remove the Western Kentucky game when the offense exploded for 557 yards, the Tide have averaged only 343 yards in their other 5 games. The defense is Alabama's strength, having not permitted more than 324 yards in any contest. Alabama currently allows only 262 yards per game (1oth in the nation). The Rebs come into this game fresh off a bye after a disappointing home loss to South Carolina. Ole Miss may be only 3-3, but their losses have come by 2, 6, and 7 points respectively. The teams they have lost to (Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, and South Carolina) currently boast a combined 14-4 record. The reason the Rebs have failed to win those close games can be summed up in one word: turnovers. Ole Miss outgained Wake (only by 12 yards), but lost thanks to a -2 turnover margin. The Rebs outgained Vanderbilt significantly (183 yards), but were -4 in turnover margin. South Carolina outgained them by 44 yards, but the Rebs compunded their trouble by again posting a -2 turnover margin. Quarterback Jevan Snead has been a drastic improvement over whatever gardbage lined up under center in the 4 seasons after Eli Manning's departure, but he has thrown 9 interceptions in only 6 games. If he can avoid the big negative plays, Ole Miss can hang around and make things interesting in Tuscaloosa.
Colorado State +21.5 Utah
Considering how well the Rams played against TCU last week (lost 13-7), I'm surprised this spread is so high. After opening the season with a blowout loss to arch-rival Colorado and following that up with a nip-and-tuck 3-point win over IAA Sacramento State, the Rams have played pretty good football. They've beaten both Houston and UNLV, while losing to Cal and TCU. The 35-point loss to Cal is a bit exaggerated, as the Bears scored 3 non-offensive touchdowns. Utah may well be the top mid-major this season, but Colorado State should be able to stay within 3 touchdowns.
Rutgers +1 Connecticut
Less than 2 calendar years after their amazing Thursday night comeback against Louisville, the Scarlet Knights have returned to their former position at the basement of college football. While the Knights have failed to notch a single win against a IA foe, they have come close on several occasions. They have lost by 2 points to Navy, 7 points to West Virginia, and 3 points to Cincinnati. None of those teams are world-beaters, but all are likely headed to bowl games, and each contest was on the road. Returning home to face Connecticut could be just what the doctor ordered. The Scarlet Knights can lay the blame for the lost season squarely at the feet of the offense which is averaging a paltry 318 yards per game (95th in the nation). Quarterback Mike Teel has gone from an average erratic quarterback to a bad erratic quarterback. The running game has yet to find a suitable replacement for Ray Rice, and alleged super star receivers Kenny Britt and Tiquan Underwood have not a single touchdown catch between them (15 last season). The Connecticut Huskies look a lot like the 2006 Scarlet Knights. They pound opponents with the running game (Donald Brown leads the NCAA with 178 rushing yards per game), play pretty good defense (33rd in the nation allowing 306 yards per game), and win the close ones (3-0 in one-possession games). However, teams with such thin margins for error usually lay a few eggs on the season and this appears to be an ample opportunity for one. A wounded, yet proud team at home, looks like a straight up win to me.
Five Faves I Like
Last Week: 2-3
Overall: 13-20-2
Pitt -3 Navy
The relatively small margin of this spread surprises me. I know Navy upset the Panthers (on the road) in OT last season. I know Navy owns wins over Wake Forest and Air Force and one of their losses came against undefeated Ball State, but 3 points? A field goal. Lest we forget, Navy also lost to Duke (an improved Duke squad I'll grant you). 3 of Navy's 4 victories have come by 7 points or less and the most recent win against Air Force came courtesy of 2 blocked punts that were returned for touchdowns. The Falcons outgained the Midshipmen by 167 yards, but could not overcome the 14 points they spotted them on special teams. Plus, the bewildering Navy option attack is not as proficient sans maestro Paul Johnson. If we remove the opening 602 yard foray they put on IAA Towson, the offense is currently averaging only 344 yards per game (about 100 les than the 444 per game they put up last season). To be fair the defense is better (allowing 384 versus the 439 they allowed per game last season), but Navy is still a team that relies on superior execution and mistakes by their opponents. Pitt is certainly a team capable of making a great deal of mistakes, but they should handle Navy with relative ease.
Cal -1.5 Arizona
If I have learned anything in my life on this Earth, its never trust Mike 'Lesser' Stoops. Despite this fact I erroneously believed Arizona could perform the simple task of winning at Stanford last week. You know the old saying, 'Fool me once...'. Despite their road loss at Maryland, the Bears have been pretty dominant thus far, and figure to be the main challenger to the Trojans in the Pac-10. Cal has outgained their 5 opponents by over 600 yards and are showing a penchant for defense. The Bears currently rank 25 in total defense, permitting 291 yards per game. Michigan State gashed them somewhat with 402 yards in the opener, but only Colorado State has topped 300 yards against them since. Arizona fooled me into thinking they were legit by pounding cream puffs (their best win was on the road at 2-4 UCLA). Arizona should put up a fight, but Cal will win by at least a deuce.
Illinois -15.5 Indiana
The Hoosiers have been in a free fall since opening the year with blowout wins over Western Kentucky and Murray State. Ball State, Michigan State, Minnesota, and Iowa have beaten them by an average of 20 points. The Hoosiers now travel to a very dangerous Illinois squad. The Illini are only 3-3, but 2 of their losses have come to top-15 teams (Missouri and Penn State). In their 4 games against BCS-conference foes (Missouri, Penn State, Michigan, and Minnesota), the Illini are averaging 489 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play. They should make quick work of an overmatched Indiana defense that has allowed 429 yards per game in their 4 losses.
San Jose State -2 New Mexico State
The best reclamation project you've never heard of is going down now as we speak in San Jose. Dick Tomey, the purveyor of turnarounds at Hawaii and Arizona, is doing it once again. The Spartans were 14-33 (10-22 in the WAC) in the 4 seasons before Tomey's arrival in 2005. In his 3+ seasons at the helm, the Spartans are 21-21 (13-13 in the WAC) and won a bowl game following the 2006 season. Hal Mumme is attempting to do the same at Las Cruces, but has not seen the same kind of results. The Aggies were 21-27 (14-10 in the Sun Belt) in the 4 seasons preceeding Mumme's arrival in 2005. In his 3+ seasons, the Aggies are 11-31 (4-21 in the WAC) with just 6 wins over IA foes. The Aggies will try to beat the Spartans by moving the ball through the air. They torched Nevada for 409 yards and 3 touchdowns via the pass last week in a 48-45 upset win. However, San Jose State has been very proficient defending the pass this season. Opposing quarterbacks have an efficiency rating of only 92.91 against the Spartans this year (5th in the nation). And lest you think those numbers have been put up only against the easy portion of the schedule, think again. Nebraska and Stanford (both at home) managed not a single touchdown throw against the Spartans. The Spartans will win a close one and need just a single victory for bowl eligibility.
Louisiana-Lafayette -3 Arkansas State
This battle for momentary supremacy in the Sun Belt should be quite entertaining. In 2 Sun Belt games, the Ragin' Cajuns are currently rolling up an average of 659 yards per game and averaging over 10 yards per play. Running back Tyrell Fenroy and quarterback Michael Desormeaux are both nearing 1000 yards on the ground. Arkansas State is also 2-0 in Sun Belt play and boast a win over Texas A&M on their resume. Its clear the Aggies are not that good, but a road win over a Big 12 teams is still impressive for a Sun Belt team. Arkansas State is a bit over-valued thanks to a rediculous +10 turnover margin through 6 games (a trend not likely to continue). Playing at home, the Cajuns should get a leg up on their Sun Belt competition.
Overall: 13-20-2
Pitt -3 Navy
The relatively small margin of this spread surprises me. I know Navy upset the Panthers (on the road) in OT last season. I know Navy owns wins over Wake Forest and Air Force and one of their losses came against undefeated Ball State, but 3 points? A field goal. Lest we forget, Navy also lost to Duke (an improved Duke squad I'll grant you). 3 of Navy's 4 victories have come by 7 points or less and the most recent win against Air Force came courtesy of 2 blocked punts that were returned for touchdowns. The Falcons outgained the Midshipmen by 167 yards, but could not overcome the 14 points they spotted them on special teams. Plus, the bewildering Navy option attack is not as proficient sans maestro Paul Johnson. If we remove the opening 602 yard foray they put on IAA Towson, the offense is currently averaging only 344 yards per game (about 100 les than the 444 per game they put up last season). To be fair the defense is better (allowing 384 versus the 439 they allowed per game last season), but Navy is still a team that relies on superior execution and mistakes by their opponents. Pitt is certainly a team capable of making a great deal of mistakes, but they should handle Navy with relative ease.
Cal -1.5 Arizona
If I have learned anything in my life on this Earth, its never trust Mike 'Lesser' Stoops. Despite this fact I erroneously believed Arizona could perform the simple task of winning at Stanford last week. You know the old saying, 'Fool me once...'. Despite their road loss at Maryland, the Bears have been pretty dominant thus far, and figure to be the main challenger to the Trojans in the Pac-10. Cal has outgained their 5 opponents by over 600 yards and are showing a penchant for defense. The Bears currently rank 25 in total defense, permitting 291 yards per game. Michigan State gashed them somewhat with 402 yards in the opener, but only Colorado State has topped 300 yards against them since. Arizona fooled me into thinking they were legit by pounding cream puffs (their best win was on the road at 2-4 UCLA). Arizona should put up a fight, but Cal will win by at least a deuce.
Illinois -15.5 Indiana
The Hoosiers have been in a free fall since opening the year with blowout wins over Western Kentucky and Murray State. Ball State, Michigan State, Minnesota, and Iowa have beaten them by an average of 20 points. The Hoosiers now travel to a very dangerous Illinois squad. The Illini are only 3-3, but 2 of their losses have come to top-15 teams (Missouri and Penn State). In their 4 games against BCS-conference foes (Missouri, Penn State, Michigan, and Minnesota), the Illini are averaging 489 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play. They should make quick work of an overmatched Indiana defense that has allowed 429 yards per game in their 4 losses.
San Jose State -2 New Mexico State
The best reclamation project you've never heard of is going down now as we speak in San Jose. Dick Tomey, the purveyor of turnarounds at Hawaii and Arizona, is doing it once again. The Spartans were 14-33 (10-22 in the WAC) in the 4 seasons before Tomey's arrival in 2005. In his 3+ seasons at the helm, the Spartans are 21-21 (13-13 in the WAC) and won a bowl game following the 2006 season. Hal Mumme is attempting to do the same at Las Cruces, but has not seen the same kind of results. The Aggies were 21-27 (14-10 in the Sun Belt) in the 4 seasons preceeding Mumme's arrival in 2005. In his 3+ seasons, the Aggies are 11-31 (4-21 in the WAC) with just 6 wins over IA foes. The Aggies will try to beat the Spartans by moving the ball through the air. They torched Nevada for 409 yards and 3 touchdowns via the pass last week in a 48-45 upset win. However, San Jose State has been very proficient defending the pass this season. Opposing quarterbacks have an efficiency rating of only 92.91 against the Spartans this year (5th in the nation). And lest you think those numbers have been put up only against the easy portion of the schedule, think again. Nebraska and Stanford (both at home) managed not a single touchdown throw against the Spartans. The Spartans will win a close one and need just a single victory for bowl eligibility.
Louisiana-Lafayette -3 Arkansas State
This battle for momentary supremacy in the Sun Belt should be quite entertaining. In 2 Sun Belt games, the Ragin' Cajuns are currently rolling up an average of 659 yards per game and averaging over 10 yards per play. Running back Tyrell Fenroy and quarterback Michael Desormeaux are both nearing 1000 yards on the ground. Arkansas State is also 2-0 in Sun Belt play and boast a win over Texas A&M on their resume. Its clear the Aggies are not that good, but a road win over a Big 12 teams is still impressive for a Sun Belt team. Arkansas State is a bit over-valued thanks to a rediculous +10 turnover margin through 6 games (a trend not likely to continue). Playing at home, the Cajuns should get a leg up on their Sun Belt competition.
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Notes and Such
While most of America is busy handicapping the races in the SEC, Big 10, and Big XII, there is a pretty interesting race developing in the Sun Belt. Florida Atlantic, the consensus preseason pick of everyone and I mean everyone, is currently 1-5, and more importantly 0-2 in conference play. Taking the Owls place atop the league are the triumverate of Louisiana-Lafayette, Arkansas State, Troy, and uh, Florida International? All 4 teams are 2-0 in league play and none is more shocking that the Golden Panthers. The Ragin' Cajuns from Louisiana were co-champs as recently as 2005, as were the Red Wolves from Arkansas State. Troy has shared the league title the past 2 seasons, so those teams are old money Sun Belt powers. Florida International on the other hand, won a single game in the 2 seasons preceeding 2008. They've tripled that win total in just 6 games, and each of their losses have come to BCS-conference foes (Kansas, Iowa, and South Florida). I mention this because the first installment of the Sun Belt's round-robin battle on the road to New Orleans begins this week. Florida International travels to Troy and Louisiana-Lafayette hosts Arkansas State. Troy has the more favorable schedule down the stretch as they host Florida International, Arkansas State, and Louisiana-Lafayette, but don't sleep on the Cajuns. Remember, Louisiana-Lafayette has played extremely well in one-score defeats at both Illinois (20-17) and Kansas State (45-37).
Speaking of the Sun Belt, I need to give props to senior Louisiana-Lafayette wide receiver Jason Cherry. In the Ragin' Cajuns win against North Texas on Saturday, Cherry caught 3 passes for 123 yards. More importantly, each catch went for 6 points. Cherry also ran the ball 3 times for 85 yards and a score. And he returned 2 kickoffs, one he was able to take all the way back for 6. So if you're scoring at home, he touched the ball 8 times and scored 5 touchdowns.
If Ron Prince joins Tommy Bowden in the unemployment line at season's end (and you can make a pretty cogent argument he deserves to), the Wildcats should be sure to retain the services of the gentleman (men) who work on special teams. The Wildcats scored 6 touchdowns on special teams in 2006 and 2007, but thus far in a half-season's work they have 5. The Wildcats are especially proficient at blocking kicks, totalling 6 in 6 games.
If you know Washington State coach Paul Wulff, send him a card. Or better yet a defense. The Cougars have played 4 Pac-10 games. 3 of their opponents (Cal, Oregon, and Oregon State) have topped 60 points against their alleged defense. Things don't get any easier this weekend when the mighty Trojans come to town. The early spread is SC -42. Ouch.
And people thought Tuane would miss Matt Forte. Not so much. Andre Anderson has done quite nicely filling in for the Chicago Bears draft pick. Anderson has 852 yards on the ground through 6 games. He's topped 100 yards in each of the past 4 contests (twice going over the 200-yard mark). Since netting only 32 yards in the opener against Alabama, Anderson has averaged 164 yards per game and a robust 5.22 yards per carry.
And speaking of running the football, the Black Knights of Army may have found their feature back in fullback Collin Mooney. Mooney had only 6 carries and 22 rushing yards coming into the season, but in the past 2 games, he has put up 187 yards against Tulane and 229 against Eastern Michigan. The team as a whole is playing much better in Stan Brock's second season. After opening 0-3, including a loss to IAA New Hampshire, the Black Knights have won 2 of 3 with the lone loss coming by 4 points at Texas A&M.
There's dominance, and then there is what the MAC West has done to the MAC East this season. Teams in the MAC West (Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Western Michigan, Northern Illinois, Ball State, and Toledo) are 10-0 against teams in the MAC East (Bowling Green, Akron, Ohio, Temple, Buffalo, Kent State, and Miami). The lone MAC West team without a win against their eastern brethren is Toledo, and well, that's because they have yet to play an eastern dwellar. The MAC East has a chance to get off the schnide as Akron hosts Eastern Michigan on Saturday.
Speaking of the Sun Belt, I need to give props to senior Louisiana-Lafayette wide receiver Jason Cherry. In the Ragin' Cajuns win against North Texas on Saturday, Cherry caught 3 passes for 123 yards. More importantly, each catch went for 6 points. Cherry also ran the ball 3 times for 85 yards and a score. And he returned 2 kickoffs, one he was able to take all the way back for 6. So if you're scoring at home, he touched the ball 8 times and scored 5 touchdowns.
If Ron Prince joins Tommy Bowden in the unemployment line at season's end (and you can make a pretty cogent argument he deserves to), the Wildcats should be sure to retain the services of the gentleman (men) who work on special teams. The Wildcats scored 6 touchdowns on special teams in 2006 and 2007, but thus far in a half-season's work they have 5. The Wildcats are especially proficient at blocking kicks, totalling 6 in 6 games.
If you know Washington State coach Paul Wulff, send him a card. Or better yet a defense. The Cougars have played 4 Pac-10 games. 3 of their opponents (Cal, Oregon, and Oregon State) have topped 60 points against their alleged defense. Things don't get any easier this weekend when the mighty Trojans come to town. The early spread is SC -42. Ouch.
And people thought Tuane would miss Matt Forte. Not so much. Andre Anderson has done quite nicely filling in for the Chicago Bears draft pick. Anderson has 852 yards on the ground through 6 games. He's topped 100 yards in each of the past 4 contests (twice going over the 200-yard mark). Since netting only 32 yards in the opener against Alabama, Anderson has averaged 164 yards per game and a robust 5.22 yards per carry.
And speaking of running the football, the Black Knights of Army may have found their feature back in fullback Collin Mooney. Mooney had only 6 carries and 22 rushing yards coming into the season, but in the past 2 games, he has put up 187 yards against Tulane and 229 against Eastern Michigan. The team as a whole is playing much better in Stan Brock's second season. After opening 0-3, including a loss to IAA New Hampshire, the Black Knights have won 2 of 3 with the lone loss coming by 4 points at Texas A&M.
There's dominance, and then there is what the MAC West has done to the MAC East this season. Teams in the MAC West (Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Western Michigan, Northern Illinois, Ball State, and Toledo) are 10-0 against teams in the MAC East (Bowling Green, Akron, Ohio, Temple, Buffalo, Kent State, and Miami). The lone MAC West team without a win against their eastern brethren is Toledo, and well, that's because they have yet to play an eastern dwellar. The MAC East has a chance to get off the schnide as Akron hosts Eastern Michigan on Saturday.
Wednesday, October 08, 2008
Fab Five: Week VII
Last week was very another winning week for me (barely). I went 5-4-1, bringing my record to 32-25-3 on the season. On to the picks (home teams in Bold).
5 Dogs I Like
Last Week: 3-2
Overall: 21-8-1
Western Michigan +1.5 Buffalo
The Broncos from Western Michigan have reeled off 5 straight wins since falling to Nebraska in their opener. They currently stand 3-0 in the MAC, and are the biggest threats to Central Michigan's 3-peat and Ball State's run at perfection. Buffalo is 1-1 in MAC play, with a 2-point win over Temple and a 2-point loss to Central Michigan on their resume. Even though the game is in Buffalo, that point spread should probably be reversed. Against MAC foes, Western Michigan has averaged 5.99 yards per play and their opponents ave averaged 4.70 yards per play. By contrast, Buffalo has averaged 5.77 yards per play and their opponents have averaged 5.99 yards per play. Western Michigan has slight advantage in offensive firepower, and a decided advantage on the defensive side. Barring a barrage of turnovers, the Broncos should pull out the straight up win.
Arkansas +19 Auburn
Auburn recently threw their offensive coordinator, Tony Franklin, under the bus, canning him 6 games into his first full season. True, the Auburn offensive has been just short of deplorable this season (see the 3-2 slugfest against Mississippi State), it was his first year on the job. Did it never occur to the Auburn administration that it might take a while (even a few years) for the offense to catch on? I would be willing to bet between 70-80% of the current players were not recruited to run this spread offense. But alas, I suppose the axe has to fall on someone. With the midseason (midweek) firing, even if Auburn reverts back to their days of pounding the ball out of the I-formation, can they cover this large number? Think about it. If Arkansas manages to score 10 points, that means Auburn must score 30 to cover. This one has all the makings of a 20-3 snoozefest Tiger victory.
Louisiana Tech +7.5 Hawaii
Hawaii was able to upend Fresno State last week (on the road) and notch their first win against a IA opponent. However, the Warriors were significantly outplayed by the Bulldogs on a down-to-down basis. Fresno State outgained the Warrios by 180 yards, but shot themselves in the foot with 6 turnovers (3 lost fumbles and 3 interceptions) and 2 missed field goals. The Warriors also ran a kickoff back for a touchdown, a surprising feat considering they 87th nationally in kickoff return average. Hawaii may well knock off Louisiana Tech on the islands, but this one should be closer than a touchdown.
Tulane +4.5 UTEP
A quick glance at Tulane's peripheral yardage stats and one would think they were 5-0 instead of 2-3. The Green Wave have outgained their first 5 opponents by 729 yards. But the Green Wave have given up two special teams and one defensive touchdown to their opponents while scoring none of their own. Meanwhile, UTEP has rebounded from an 0-3 start to win their first two conference games. Quarterback Trevor Vittatoe has been especially sound in the two conference wins, throwing 7 touchdown passes and just a single interception after throwing 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions in the first 3 games. UTEP may well begin their conference season 3-0, but they are a little overvalued after consecutive wins over Central Florida and Southern Miss. The Miners destroyed Central Florida 58-13, but that win was buyoed by 6 turnovers. They followed that up with an OT win over Southern Miss, but benefitted from 3 missed field goals from the Golden Eagles.
Texas +7 Oklahoma
The Sooners have been a buzzsaw thus far, destroying everything in their path. The Sooners certainly have a pair of better wins, as they own victories over Cincinnati and TCU. Of course, both those wins came in Norman. Texas, on the other hand, has the better road win, a 24-point shellacking of Colorado in Boulder. Methinks this one will be tight, and thus the pick is the team getting spotted a touchdown.
Overall: 21-8-1
Western Michigan +1.5 Buffalo
The Broncos from Western Michigan have reeled off 5 straight wins since falling to Nebraska in their opener. They currently stand 3-0 in the MAC, and are the biggest threats to Central Michigan's 3-peat and Ball State's run at perfection. Buffalo is 1-1 in MAC play, with a 2-point win over Temple and a 2-point loss to Central Michigan on their resume. Even though the game is in Buffalo, that point spread should probably be reversed. Against MAC foes, Western Michigan has averaged 5.99 yards per play and their opponents ave averaged 4.70 yards per play. By contrast, Buffalo has averaged 5.77 yards per play and their opponents have averaged 5.99 yards per play. Western Michigan has slight advantage in offensive firepower, and a decided advantage on the defensive side. Barring a barrage of turnovers, the Broncos should pull out the straight up win.
Arkansas +19 Auburn
Auburn recently threw their offensive coordinator, Tony Franklin, under the bus, canning him 6 games into his first full season. True, the Auburn offensive has been just short of deplorable this season (see the 3-2 slugfest against Mississippi State), it was his first year on the job. Did it never occur to the Auburn administration that it might take a while (even a few years) for the offense to catch on? I would be willing to bet between 70-80% of the current players were not recruited to run this spread offense. But alas, I suppose the axe has to fall on someone. With the midseason (midweek) firing, even if Auburn reverts back to their days of pounding the ball out of the I-formation, can they cover this large number? Think about it. If Arkansas manages to score 10 points, that means Auburn must score 30 to cover. This one has all the makings of a 20-3 snoozefest Tiger victory.
Louisiana Tech +7.5 Hawaii
Hawaii was able to upend Fresno State last week (on the road) and notch their first win against a IA opponent. However, the Warriors were significantly outplayed by the Bulldogs on a down-to-down basis. Fresno State outgained the Warrios by 180 yards, but shot themselves in the foot with 6 turnovers (3 lost fumbles and 3 interceptions) and 2 missed field goals. The Warriors also ran a kickoff back for a touchdown, a surprising feat considering they 87th nationally in kickoff return average. Hawaii may well knock off Louisiana Tech on the islands, but this one should be closer than a touchdown.
Tulane +4.5 UTEP
A quick glance at Tulane's peripheral yardage stats and one would think they were 5-0 instead of 2-3. The Green Wave have outgained their first 5 opponents by 729 yards. But the Green Wave have given up two special teams and one defensive touchdown to their opponents while scoring none of their own. Meanwhile, UTEP has rebounded from an 0-3 start to win their first two conference games. Quarterback Trevor Vittatoe has been especially sound in the two conference wins, throwing 7 touchdown passes and just a single interception after throwing 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions in the first 3 games. UTEP may well begin their conference season 3-0, but they are a little overvalued after consecutive wins over Central Florida and Southern Miss. The Miners destroyed Central Florida 58-13, but that win was buyoed by 6 turnovers. They followed that up with an OT win over Southern Miss, but benefitted from 3 missed field goals from the Golden Eagles.
Texas +7 Oklahoma
The Sooners have been a buzzsaw thus far, destroying everything in their path. The Sooners certainly have a pair of better wins, as they own victories over Cincinnati and TCU. Of course, both those wins came in Norman. Texas, on the other hand, has the better road win, a 24-point shellacking of Colorado in Boulder. Methinks this one will be tight, and thus the pick is the team getting spotted a touchdown.
Five Faves I Like
Last Week: 2-2-1
Overall: 11-17-2
South Carolina -1 Kentucky
Kentucky's loss to Alabama looked extremely competitive last week, but don't forget the fact that the Wildcats scored late to make it a 3-point game. Alabama outgained the Wildcats by over 100 yards and bludgeoned them for 282 yards on the ground. South Carolina has their best offensive showing last week, totalling 405 yards in a win at Ole Miss. South Carolina is stronger on both sides of the ball and should keep Steve Spurrier perfect against Kentucky.
Missouri -14 Oklahoma State
At worst, this one should be quite entertaining. Missouri is averaging an astounding 8.2 yards per play and has punted twice in the past 3 games. Oklahoma State has also been quite proficient offensively, averaging over 52 points per game. However, the Cowboys have seen their offensive splits drop when facing BCS-conference foes. Against Washington State and Texas A&M, two teams that will likely fail to qualify for a bowl, the Cowboys have averaged 384 yards per game. Against Houston, Southwest Missouri State (IAA), and Troy the Cowboys have averaged 628 yards per game. Missouri does not have a dominant defense, but it should do enough to win comfortably at home.
Ball State -16 Western Kentucky
Ball State is attempting a run at perfection. Western Kentucky is playing their last year of provisional IA ball before joinng the Sun Belt next season. Against 4 IA foes this season, Western Kentucky has been doubled up in total yardage (1698-840) and outscored by an average of 26 points per game. The Hilltoppers have averaged 9 points per game against IA foes. If they get to 14 against Ball State, the Cardinals need only get to 30 to cover. Consider it done.
Georgia -13 Tennessee
Tennessee has beaten Georgia the past 2 seasons, including a 51-point outburst between the hedges in 2006. The Phil Fulmer death march continues into Athens this week. Against teams not named UAB, the Vols have averaged just under 14 points per game. The offense has averaged 260 yards per game against those schools. Of course, the defense has been rock solid, holding each opponent under 300 yards. That's a far cry from last season when the defense gave up 403 yards per game. Georgia may have a little trouble moving the ball, but playing at home, they should win by at least 2 touchdowns.
Arizona -6.5 Stanford
At long last (10 seasons to be exact), this appears to be the year the Wildcats finally get back to a bowl game. A turnover-fueled loss at New Mexico in the 3rd game of the season likely elicited 'here we go again' shouts from Tucson, but the Wildcats have responded with consecutive lopsided conference wins. The Wildcats have outgained each of their first 5 opponents and are currently averaging 429 yards per game, by far the most in the Mike Stoops era (386 last season). The defense is also doing their part, currently allowing only 226 yards per game (again the best in the Stoops era). Stanford is certainly improved under Jim Harbaugh, but Arizona should be able to cover the touchdown number on the road.
Overall: 11-17-2
South Carolina -1 Kentucky
Kentucky's loss to Alabama looked extremely competitive last week, but don't forget the fact that the Wildcats scored late to make it a 3-point game. Alabama outgained the Wildcats by over 100 yards and bludgeoned them for 282 yards on the ground. South Carolina has their best offensive showing last week, totalling 405 yards in a win at Ole Miss. South Carolina is stronger on both sides of the ball and should keep Steve Spurrier perfect against Kentucky.
Missouri -14 Oklahoma State
At worst, this one should be quite entertaining. Missouri is averaging an astounding 8.2 yards per play and has punted twice in the past 3 games. Oklahoma State has also been quite proficient offensively, averaging over 52 points per game. However, the Cowboys have seen their offensive splits drop when facing BCS-conference foes. Against Washington State and Texas A&M, two teams that will likely fail to qualify for a bowl, the Cowboys have averaged 384 yards per game. Against Houston, Southwest Missouri State (IAA), and Troy the Cowboys have averaged 628 yards per game. Missouri does not have a dominant defense, but it should do enough to win comfortably at home.
Ball State -16 Western Kentucky
Ball State is attempting a run at perfection. Western Kentucky is playing their last year of provisional IA ball before joinng the Sun Belt next season. Against 4 IA foes this season, Western Kentucky has been doubled up in total yardage (1698-840) and outscored by an average of 26 points per game. The Hilltoppers have averaged 9 points per game against IA foes. If they get to 14 against Ball State, the Cardinals need only get to 30 to cover. Consider it done.
Georgia -13 Tennessee
Tennessee has beaten Georgia the past 2 seasons, including a 51-point outburst between the hedges in 2006. The Phil Fulmer death march continues into Athens this week. Against teams not named UAB, the Vols have averaged just under 14 points per game. The offense has averaged 260 yards per game against those schools. Of course, the defense has been rock solid, holding each opponent under 300 yards. That's a far cry from last season when the defense gave up 403 yards per game. Georgia may have a little trouble moving the ball, but playing at home, they should win by at least 2 touchdowns.
Arizona -6.5 Stanford
At long last (10 seasons to be exact), this appears to be the year the Wildcats finally get back to a bowl game. A turnover-fueled loss at New Mexico in the 3rd game of the season likely elicited 'here we go again' shouts from Tucson, but the Wildcats have responded with consecutive lopsided conference wins. The Wildcats have outgained each of their first 5 opponents and are currently averaging 429 yards per game, by far the most in the Mike Stoops era (386 last season). The defense is also doing their part, currently allowing only 226 yards per game (again the best in the Stoops era). Stanford is certainly improved under Jim Harbaugh, but Arizona should be able to cover the touchdown number on the road.
Thursday, October 02, 2008
Fab Five: Week VI
Last week was very schizophrenic for me. I swept the underdogs and whiffed on all the favorites bringing my record to 27-21-2. Time for another winning week (home teams in Bold).
5 Dogs I Like
Last Week: 5-0
Overall: 18-6-1
Pittsburgh +14 South Florida
Barring a large number of turnover-induced or special teams touchdowns, this should be a low-scoring affair. Pitt currently ranks 32nd in total defense, permitting 307 yards per game. South Florida is 8th in total defense, allowing only 242 yards per game. Of course, part of South Florida's defensive acumen is accentuated by their schedule--3 of their 4 IA opponents (Central Florida, NC State, and Florida International) rank 111th in total offense or worse. South Florida may well be the best team in the Big East, but Pitt should keep this one close.
UNLV +2 Colorado State
UNLV has been one of the pleasant surprises of the college football season, opening with a 3-2 record including two wins against BCS-conference foes--Arizona State and Iowa State. That's good news for head coach Mike Sanford who came into 2008 on a serious hot seat. He's already set a personal best for wins, as the Rebs won 2 games in each of his first 3 seasons. Sophomore quarterback Omar Clayton is the primary reason UNLV has serious bowl aspirations. From 2005-2007 (Sanford's first 3 years in Vegas), the Rebs averaged 18.8, 19.8, and 18.2 points per game. On the strength of Clayton's arm (currently 31st in the nation in pass efficiency), the Rebs are averaging 26.4 points per game. That's good because the defense is allowing 31.8 points per game. Meanwhile, their opponents, the Rams, have been blown out twice (Colorado and Cal beat them by a combined score of 80-24), and have won a pair of squeakers (3-point wins over Sacramento State and Houston). UNLV's offense should do enough to compensate for their shoddy defense and allow them to win a shootout.
Illinois +3 Michigan
One of the most improbable wins from last weekend was Michigan's upset of Wisconsin. Down 19-0 at the half and looking every bit the part of overmatched challenger to a top-10 team, the Wolverines played competently in the second half and used some lucky breaks (tipped interception return for a touchdown and a penalty on Wisconsin's tying 2-point try) to pull out the win. Despite the win, the offense is still very much a work in progress. Quarterback Steven Threet completed only 12 of 31 passes for 96 yards and 2 interceptions. In their Big 10 opener, the Illini played valiantly before falling by 14 at Penn State. After facing the Penn State 'Spread HD' offense, the task here should be much easier. These teams are pretty evenly matched and since the Illini are getting points, they are the pick. Before we leave this discussion, its important to point out the play of quarterback Juice Williams. After torching Missouri for 451 yards and 5 touchdowns while averaging 10.7 yards per pass in the opener, Williams has regressed to his rudimentary passing ways. In the 3 games since, Williams has averaged 6.1 yards per pass and thrown 4 touchdowns against 4 interceptions. Keep in mind 2 of those games were against Eastern Illinois (IAA) and Louisiana-Lafayette.
Navy +5.5 Air Force
The underdog in this game, the United States Naval Academy, has beaten the Falcons 5 straight times. Navy has seen their offense decline a little from the phenomenal numbers they put up last season (slipped from 22nd in total offense to 34th), but the defense has improved upon their putrid numbers (jumped from 99th in total defense to 81st). The net result means Navy should qualify for a bowl game for the 6th straight season. Meanwhile, Air Force is looking to make its second bowl appearance in as many seasons under head coach Troy Calhoun. The Falcons are 3-1, but in their past 2 games, they have allowed 974 total yards to Houston and Utah. That could spell trouble against Navy's option attack. The Falcons are also due for a market correction in fumble recovery luck. Their opponents have put the ball on the ground 9 times, and the Falcons have recovered each fumble.
North Texas +6.5 Florida International
Th summary for this one is pretty simple. Know the last time Florida International was favored? It was 2 years ago at North Texas. They lost. The Golden Panthers won last week despite gaining 239 yards because they were the beneficiary of 4 Toledo turnovers. Neither of these teams are very good, but when the home team is getting a touchdown, they are the pick.
Overall: 18-6-1
Pittsburgh +14 South Florida
Barring a large number of turnover-induced or special teams touchdowns, this should be a low-scoring affair. Pitt currently ranks 32nd in total defense, permitting 307 yards per game. South Florida is 8th in total defense, allowing only 242 yards per game. Of course, part of South Florida's defensive acumen is accentuated by their schedule--3 of their 4 IA opponents (Central Florida, NC State, and Florida International) rank 111th in total offense or worse. South Florida may well be the best team in the Big East, but Pitt should keep this one close.
UNLV +2 Colorado State
UNLV has been one of the pleasant surprises of the college football season, opening with a 3-2 record including two wins against BCS-conference foes--Arizona State and Iowa State. That's good news for head coach Mike Sanford who came into 2008 on a serious hot seat. He's already set a personal best for wins, as the Rebs won 2 games in each of his first 3 seasons. Sophomore quarterback Omar Clayton is the primary reason UNLV has serious bowl aspirations. From 2005-2007 (Sanford's first 3 years in Vegas), the Rebs averaged 18.8, 19.8, and 18.2 points per game. On the strength of Clayton's arm (currently 31st in the nation in pass efficiency), the Rebs are averaging 26.4 points per game. That's good because the defense is allowing 31.8 points per game. Meanwhile, their opponents, the Rams, have been blown out twice (Colorado and Cal beat them by a combined score of 80-24), and have won a pair of squeakers (3-point wins over Sacramento State and Houston). UNLV's offense should do enough to compensate for their shoddy defense and allow them to win a shootout.
Illinois +3 Michigan
One of the most improbable wins from last weekend was Michigan's upset of Wisconsin. Down 19-0 at the half and looking every bit the part of overmatched challenger to a top-10 team, the Wolverines played competently in the second half and used some lucky breaks (tipped interception return for a touchdown and a penalty on Wisconsin's tying 2-point try) to pull out the win. Despite the win, the offense is still very much a work in progress. Quarterback Steven Threet completed only 12 of 31 passes for 96 yards and 2 interceptions. In their Big 10 opener, the Illini played valiantly before falling by 14 at Penn State. After facing the Penn State 'Spread HD' offense, the task here should be much easier. These teams are pretty evenly matched and since the Illini are getting points, they are the pick. Before we leave this discussion, its important to point out the play of quarterback Juice Williams. After torching Missouri for 451 yards and 5 touchdowns while averaging 10.7 yards per pass in the opener, Williams has regressed to his rudimentary passing ways. In the 3 games since, Williams has averaged 6.1 yards per pass and thrown 4 touchdowns against 4 interceptions. Keep in mind 2 of those games were against Eastern Illinois (IAA) and Louisiana-Lafayette.
Navy +5.5 Air Force
The underdog in this game, the United States Naval Academy, has beaten the Falcons 5 straight times. Navy has seen their offense decline a little from the phenomenal numbers they put up last season (slipped from 22nd in total offense to 34th), but the defense has improved upon their putrid numbers (jumped from 99th in total defense to 81st). The net result means Navy should qualify for a bowl game for the 6th straight season. Meanwhile, Air Force is looking to make its second bowl appearance in as many seasons under head coach Troy Calhoun. The Falcons are 3-1, but in their past 2 games, they have allowed 974 total yards to Houston and Utah. That could spell trouble against Navy's option attack. The Falcons are also due for a market correction in fumble recovery luck. Their opponents have put the ball on the ground 9 times, and the Falcons have recovered each fumble.
North Texas +6.5 Florida International
Th summary for this one is pretty simple. Know the last time Florida International was favored? It was 2 years ago at North Texas. They lost. The Golden Panthers won last week despite gaining 239 yards because they were the beneficiary of 4 Toledo turnovers. Neither of these teams are very good, but when the home team is getting a touchdown, they are the pick.
Five Faves I Like
Last Week: 0-5
Overall: 9-15-1
Memphis -3 UAB
Memphis is one of the best 2-3 teams in the nation, and may be poised for a big second half as they get into the meat of their Conference USA schedule. The Tigers have outgained all 5 of their opponents, including an Ole Miss team that recently knocked off the Florida Gators in Gainesville. On the other hand, UAB has yet to defeat a IA opponent, whiffing against Tulsa, Florida Atlantic, Tennessee, and South Carolina by an average of nearly 21 points per game. The defense has been the team's weak link, permitting 7 yards per play (118th in the nation). Memphis should have their way with the Blazers and win by at least a touchdown.
Auburn -4 Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt fans should enjoy the undefeated season and national ranking while they can. It won't last long. Auburn may find it a trifle difficult moving the ball against Vandy, but the Commodores certainly have the worst offense of any undefeated team I've ever seen. In their 2 SEC games, wins mind you, Vandy has gained 225 (South Carolina) and 202 (Mississippi) yards. Vandy is undefeated thanks to an amazing +9 turnover margin through 4 games. The plan seems to be to emulate Mississippi State from last last season. Hang around and let your opponent fall on their own sword. The Commodores have yet to throw an interception on the season, and have attempted only 57 passes as a team. Only the 3 service academies and Georgia Tech have attempted fewer passes on the season. The game plan against Auburn should be fairly similar to what it was against the Gamecocks and Rebels: run quarterback Chris Nickson, pound running back Jared Hawkins, throw safe passes, and wait for the opponent to muff a punt or fumble through the endzone. For some reason I don't think it will work for the 3rd time.
Ohio State -1 Wisconsin
Wisconsin fancied themselves Big 10 title contenders before the season thanks to a good defense and solid ground game. Unfortunately, they do not possess a competent player at the most important position--quarterback. Allan Evridge, a transfer from Kansas State has not proven himself to be an accurate passer, particularly against good defenses. In 2005, his lone season as a Wildcat, Evridge completed a lowly 47.9% of his passes. This season, his completion percentage is a respectable 57.7%, but against the two stronger teams the Badgers have faced (Fresno State and Michigan), he has completed only 52.5% of his passes. The Ohio State offense may be a work in progress, but the defense still qualifies as strong, if not elite. The Buckeyes currently rank 12th in total defense and 21st in pass efficiency defense. He will be in for a long night against the Buckeyes.
Tulsa -15.5 Rice
While I'm pretty confident in this pick, I'm much more confident in the over bet. Unless the over line is triple digits, its probably a safe bet. As for the game itself, look for Tulsa, led by quarterback David Johnson (the nation's highest rated passer), to decimate a Rice defense that currently ranks 112th in yards allowed per game. Rice will be able to move the ball as well against a Tulsa defense that is only 95th in yards allowed per game, but Tulsa's offense, which is currently averaging over 600 yards per game, should be enough to cover the 3-score spread.
Kansas -12 Iowa State
This is the Big 12 opener for both teams and a chance for Kansas to show that last season's 12-1 record was not a fluke. The Jayhawks have been road-tested already, having lost on a last-second field goal at South Florida. Iowa State is already only a single win away from matching their win total (3) from last season. Unfortunately, their offense has seen diminishing returns in each game. They opened by totalling 388 yards against South Dakota State (IAA), and have seen their yardage total drop to 374, 325, and 306 in their next 3 games. The Kansas defense should shut down the Cyclone attack and cruise to a 2-touchdown victory.
Overall: 9-15-1
Memphis -3 UAB
Memphis is one of the best 2-3 teams in the nation, and may be poised for a big second half as they get into the meat of their Conference USA schedule. The Tigers have outgained all 5 of their opponents, including an Ole Miss team that recently knocked off the Florida Gators in Gainesville. On the other hand, UAB has yet to defeat a IA opponent, whiffing against Tulsa, Florida Atlantic, Tennessee, and South Carolina by an average of nearly 21 points per game. The defense has been the team's weak link, permitting 7 yards per play (118th in the nation). Memphis should have their way with the Blazers and win by at least a touchdown.
Auburn -4 Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt fans should enjoy the undefeated season and national ranking while they can. It won't last long. Auburn may find it a trifle difficult moving the ball against Vandy, but the Commodores certainly have the worst offense of any undefeated team I've ever seen. In their 2 SEC games, wins mind you, Vandy has gained 225 (South Carolina) and 202 (Mississippi) yards. Vandy is undefeated thanks to an amazing +9 turnover margin through 4 games. The plan seems to be to emulate Mississippi State from last last season. Hang around and let your opponent fall on their own sword. The Commodores have yet to throw an interception on the season, and have attempted only 57 passes as a team. Only the 3 service academies and Georgia Tech have attempted fewer passes on the season. The game plan against Auburn should be fairly similar to what it was against the Gamecocks and Rebels: run quarterback Chris Nickson, pound running back Jared Hawkins, throw safe passes, and wait for the opponent to muff a punt or fumble through the endzone. For some reason I don't think it will work for the 3rd time.
Ohio State -1 Wisconsin
Wisconsin fancied themselves Big 10 title contenders before the season thanks to a good defense and solid ground game. Unfortunately, they do not possess a competent player at the most important position--quarterback. Allan Evridge, a transfer from Kansas State has not proven himself to be an accurate passer, particularly against good defenses. In 2005, his lone season as a Wildcat, Evridge completed a lowly 47.9% of his passes. This season, his completion percentage is a respectable 57.7%, but against the two stronger teams the Badgers have faced (Fresno State and Michigan), he has completed only 52.5% of his passes. The Ohio State offense may be a work in progress, but the defense still qualifies as strong, if not elite. The Buckeyes currently rank 12th in total defense and 21st in pass efficiency defense. He will be in for a long night against the Buckeyes.
Tulsa -15.5 Rice
While I'm pretty confident in this pick, I'm much more confident in the over bet. Unless the over line is triple digits, its probably a safe bet. As for the game itself, look for Tulsa, led by quarterback David Johnson (the nation's highest rated passer), to decimate a Rice defense that currently ranks 112th in yards allowed per game. Rice will be able to move the ball as well against a Tulsa defense that is only 95th in yards allowed per game, but Tulsa's offense, which is currently averaging over 600 yards per game, should be enough to cover the 3-score spread.
Kansas -12 Iowa State
This is the Big 12 opener for both teams and a chance for Kansas to show that last season's 12-1 record was not a fluke. The Jayhawks have been road-tested already, having lost on a last-second field goal at South Florida. Iowa State is already only a single win away from matching their win total (3) from last season. Unfortunately, their offense has seen diminishing returns in each game. They opened by totalling 388 yards against South Dakota State (IAA), and have seen their yardage total drop to 374, 325, and 306 in their next 3 games. The Kansas defense should shut down the Cyclone attack and cruise to a 2-touchdown victory.
Monday, September 29, 2008
Best/Worst Week Ever: Week V
After a week off, we return to our regularly scheduled programming.
1. BYU
The Cougars were big winners this week by not playing. As the upsets started rolling in, BYU was able to sit back enjoy their foray into the top-10. BYU is currently ranked ahead of both Southern Cal and Georgia. Are they better than both those teams? You'd be hard-pressed to convince me as such. But, polls are polls, and if the Cougars are able to win out, they will assure themselves of a BCS bid. In fact, if they finish with an undefeated record, you may hear some clamoring for them to play for the MNC in Miami. One other note about the Cougars, that shutout win over Wyoming may not be as impressive as it seemed before last week's results. As you probably guessed, we'll hear from the Cowboys in our next section.
2. Donald Brown
The nation's leading rusher continued his stellar play, totalling 190 yards against Louisville as the Huskies stayed unbeaten.
3. Javon Ringer
The nation's second leading rusher continued his stellar play, toting the rock 44 times for 198 yards in the Spartans win against Indiana. In the past 3 games, Ringer has carried the ball 126 times. For the season, he's averaging more than 37 carries per game. For comparison's sake, last season's leader in carried (and yards), Kevin Smith of Central Florida, averaged just over 32 carries per game. If Mark Dantonio wants his stud running back around and in fine form at the end of the season, he may want to ease up a little.
4. Mike Riley
Who else could have had the best week ever? Mike Riley is one of the most underrated coaches in the NCAA. Before he arrived on the Oregon State campus prior to the 1997 season, the Beavers had not won 5 games in a season since 1971. He won 5 games in his second season (1998) before heading to the NFL. The foundation he set allowed Dennis Erickson to take the Beavers to their first bowl game since 1964 in his first season (1999) and to the Fiesta Bowl the following season. When Erickson headed to the NFL following the 2002 season, Riley was the logical choice to replace him. Since returning to Corvallis, Riley has won 41 games and lost 26 while guiding the Beavers to 4 bowl games in 5 seasons. In addition, the Beavers have the second most Pac-10 wins over the past 2+ seasons. Here here Mr. Riley.
Those are your winners, now here are your losers.
1. Wake Forest
My Deacons totalled 313 yards and turned the ball over 6 times against Navy. The Midshipmen are certainly a solid team, but they rank 81st in the nation in total defense, having allowed an average of 379 yards per game.
2. Tommy Bowden
In the preseason, Clemson was the only logical pick to take the ACC's Atlantic Division. They opened the season laying an egg against a seemingly very good Alabama team. But alas, they blew another home conference game against what appears to be an average at best Maryland team. Through 5 games, Clemson has beaten only a single IA team (NC State).
3. The Orange Bowl
Who's ready for a Maryland/Connecticut matchup on January 1st? Or maybe North Carolina/Pitt? What about Wake/Cincinnati? Those matchups belong on ESPN2. At 3:30. On December 26th. Good luck selling that one Fox.
4. Joe Glenn
Better start updating thr ol' resume Joe. Getting shut out by a very good BYU team (on the road) is one thing. Losing at home to Bowling Green 45-16 is another. The Cowboys opened the season with 4 home games in their first 5 contests. They won 2 of those, by a single point against Ohio and by 3 against IAA North Dakota State. The 'Pokes are currently averaging a robust 268 yards per game (115th in the nation). After winning 7 games and the Las Vegas Bowl in his second season in 2004, Glenn's Cowboys have gone just 17-23 (9-17 in Mountain West play). Dead man walking ladies and gentlemen.
1. BYU
The Cougars were big winners this week by not playing. As the upsets started rolling in, BYU was able to sit back enjoy their foray into the top-10. BYU is currently ranked ahead of both Southern Cal and Georgia. Are they better than both those teams? You'd be hard-pressed to convince me as such. But, polls are polls, and if the Cougars are able to win out, they will assure themselves of a BCS bid. In fact, if they finish with an undefeated record, you may hear some clamoring for them to play for the MNC in Miami. One other note about the Cougars, that shutout win over Wyoming may not be as impressive as it seemed before last week's results. As you probably guessed, we'll hear from the Cowboys in our next section.
2. Donald Brown
The nation's leading rusher continued his stellar play, totalling 190 yards against Louisville as the Huskies stayed unbeaten.
3. Javon Ringer
The nation's second leading rusher continued his stellar play, toting the rock 44 times for 198 yards in the Spartans win against Indiana. In the past 3 games, Ringer has carried the ball 126 times. For the season, he's averaging more than 37 carries per game. For comparison's sake, last season's leader in carried (and yards), Kevin Smith of Central Florida, averaged just over 32 carries per game. If Mark Dantonio wants his stud running back around and in fine form at the end of the season, he may want to ease up a little.
4. Mike Riley
Who else could have had the best week ever? Mike Riley is one of the most underrated coaches in the NCAA. Before he arrived on the Oregon State campus prior to the 1997 season, the Beavers had not won 5 games in a season since 1971. He won 5 games in his second season (1998) before heading to the NFL. The foundation he set allowed Dennis Erickson to take the Beavers to their first bowl game since 1964 in his first season (1999) and to the Fiesta Bowl the following season. When Erickson headed to the NFL following the 2002 season, Riley was the logical choice to replace him. Since returning to Corvallis, Riley has won 41 games and lost 26 while guiding the Beavers to 4 bowl games in 5 seasons. In addition, the Beavers have the second most Pac-10 wins over the past 2+ seasons. Here here Mr. Riley.
Those are your winners, now here are your losers.
1. Wake Forest
My Deacons totalled 313 yards and turned the ball over 6 times against Navy. The Midshipmen are certainly a solid team, but they rank 81st in the nation in total defense, having allowed an average of 379 yards per game.
2. Tommy Bowden
In the preseason, Clemson was the only logical pick to take the ACC's Atlantic Division. They opened the season laying an egg against a seemingly very good Alabama team. But alas, they blew another home conference game against what appears to be an average at best Maryland team. Through 5 games, Clemson has beaten only a single IA team (NC State).
3. The Orange Bowl
Who's ready for a Maryland/Connecticut matchup on January 1st? Or maybe North Carolina/Pitt? What about Wake/Cincinnati? Those matchups belong on ESPN2. At 3:30. On December 26th. Good luck selling that one Fox.
4. Joe Glenn
Better start updating thr ol' resume Joe. Getting shut out by a very good BYU team (on the road) is one thing. Losing at home to Bowling Green 45-16 is another. The Cowboys opened the season with 4 home games in their first 5 contests. They won 2 of those, by a single point against Ohio and by 3 against IAA North Dakota State. The 'Pokes are currently averaging a robust 268 yards per game (115th in the nation). After winning 7 games and the Las Vegas Bowl in his second season in 2004, Glenn's Cowboys have gone just 17-23 (9-17 in Mountain West play). Dead man walking ladies and gentlemen.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Fab Five: Week V
Last week was another solid week for me as I went 5-3-2, raising my collective record to 22-16-2. Another week, another set of picks designed to make you money (home teams in Bold).
5 Dogs I Like
Last Week: 2-2-1
Overall: 13-6-1
Mississippi +22.5 Florida
For those who didn't watch the game, or bother to read the box score (and that includes most pollsters apparently), the Rebels home loss to Vanderbilt makes it appear as though things have not changed too much in Oxford. Look a little deeper though, and you will see an improving team. Last season, Ole Miss opened the season with a 1-2 record against IA foes. In those 3 games, they averaged 357 yards per game and allowed 466 yards per game. This season, the Rebs have opened 1-2 against IA foes (we'll ignore their win over Samford for comparison's sake). In those 3 games, they have averaged 394 yards per game and allowed 334 per game. That looks like improvement to me. Ole Miss stumbled last week against Vanderbilt because they turned the ball over 6 times. The Commodores gained only 202 yards against the Ole Miss defense. Barring a turnover barrage, the Rebs should stay within 3 touchdowns in Gainesville.
Houston +11 East Carolina
Thankfully with their loss to NC State, we can dispense with all the talk about the Pirates being an elite team. East Carolina is a team with limited offensive capabilities. They have yet to gain more than 386 yards against any opponent. The Pirates are very strong defensively, permitting an average of only 298 yards per game (32nd in the nation). However, they have yet to face an offense as prolific as Houston's. The Cougars open conference play after a 1-3 start in non-conference action. The Cougars are still a dangerous team, and should make some noise in Conference USA. They have yet to gain fewer than 473 yards in any game, and could very well be 3-1 as their losses to Air Force and Colorado State came by 3 points apiece. In addition, the Cougars outgained both those teams by a combined 205 yards. This one should be close.
Michigan +6.5 Wisconsin
Will this be a bowl-less season in Ann Arbor? The Wolverines currently have an active 33-game bowl streak, and the nation will have a much better idea of whether or not that streak will continue after this game. Despite the fact that they stand 1-2, there is some evidence that the Wolverines are picking up Rich Rod's offense. In the opener, Michigan generated a paltry 203 yards against Utah. They upped that tally to 281 in game number two against Miami (Ohio). And in game three, they put up 388 yards on Notre Dame. The running game has substantially improved with the emergence of freshman running back Sam McGuffie. After carrying 8 times for 8 yards against the Utes, McGuffie has gained 205 yards on 42 carries (4.9 yards per rush) against the Redhawks and Irish. On the other sideline, Wisconsin has looked robust opening the season 3-0, with a quality road win at Fresno State included in the bunch. However, Wisconsin could struggle against the Michigan defense as they were only able to put up 304 yards against Fresno State. Consider the Bulldogs responded by promptly giving up 598 yards to Toledo the next week. At worst, Michigan keeps this one close, and if things break right, they walk away with an outright victory.
Minnesota +19 Ohio State
In their games against IA foes, the Buckeyes have looked listless at best and atrocious at worst on offense. Excluding the opener against Youngstown State, the Buckeyes have failed to gain more than 309 yards in any game. To be fair, one of those games was against what may be the best team in the nation, Southern Cal, but the other two were against Ohio and Troy. Not that those schools are bad, in fact Ohio is by the far the best winless team in the nation, having also given Wyoming, Central Michigan, and Northwestern fits in close losses, and Troy is sure to be a contender in the Sun Belt, but they aren't in the class of elite teams. The Buckeyes are still strong on defense, even in the Southern Cal debacle, the Trojans only amassed 348 yards, but the offense seems lost without Beanie Wells. Meanwhile Minnesota has quadrupled last season's win total, albeit against less than stellar competition (Minnesota's opponents have two IA wins between them), but it beats losing to them, which the Gophers did last season. Minnesota will have trouble moving the ball against the Buckeye defense, but I expect them to be within shouting distance without posing much of a real threat to actually win.
Northwestern +8.5 Iowa
The Wildcats rolled through the non-conference portion of their schedule with a 4-0 record, positioning themselves for their first bowl bid since 2005. Despite their 4-0 record, the Wildcats have to be a little concerned about their passing game. Quarterback CJ Bacher has thrown just 3 touchdowns and 5 interceptions against inferior competition (Syracuse, Duke, Southern Illinois, and Ohio). While the senior quarterback has been disappointing, the senior running back has exceeded expectations. Tyrell Sutton has totalled 387 yards and 5 touchdowns in the 4 games, and is averaging 6.1 yards per rush. Northwestern's offense should keep them in the game against an Iowa team with a sound defense and sputtering offense.
Overall: 13-6-1
Mississippi +22.5 Florida
For those who didn't watch the game, or bother to read the box score (and that includes most pollsters apparently), the Rebels home loss to Vanderbilt makes it appear as though things have not changed too much in Oxford. Look a little deeper though, and you will see an improving team. Last season, Ole Miss opened the season with a 1-2 record against IA foes. In those 3 games, they averaged 357 yards per game and allowed 466 yards per game. This season, the Rebs have opened 1-2 against IA foes (we'll ignore their win over Samford for comparison's sake). In those 3 games, they have averaged 394 yards per game and allowed 334 per game. That looks like improvement to me. Ole Miss stumbled last week against Vanderbilt because they turned the ball over 6 times. The Commodores gained only 202 yards against the Ole Miss defense. Barring a turnover barrage, the Rebs should stay within 3 touchdowns in Gainesville.
Houston +11 East Carolina
Thankfully with their loss to NC State, we can dispense with all the talk about the Pirates being an elite team. East Carolina is a team with limited offensive capabilities. They have yet to gain more than 386 yards against any opponent. The Pirates are very strong defensively, permitting an average of only 298 yards per game (32nd in the nation). However, they have yet to face an offense as prolific as Houston's. The Cougars open conference play after a 1-3 start in non-conference action. The Cougars are still a dangerous team, and should make some noise in Conference USA. They have yet to gain fewer than 473 yards in any game, and could very well be 3-1 as their losses to Air Force and Colorado State came by 3 points apiece. In addition, the Cougars outgained both those teams by a combined 205 yards. This one should be close.
Michigan +6.5 Wisconsin
Will this be a bowl-less season in Ann Arbor? The Wolverines currently have an active 33-game bowl streak, and the nation will have a much better idea of whether or not that streak will continue after this game. Despite the fact that they stand 1-2, there is some evidence that the Wolverines are picking up Rich Rod's offense. In the opener, Michigan generated a paltry 203 yards against Utah. They upped that tally to 281 in game number two against Miami (Ohio). And in game three, they put up 388 yards on Notre Dame. The running game has substantially improved with the emergence of freshman running back Sam McGuffie. After carrying 8 times for 8 yards against the Utes, McGuffie has gained 205 yards on 42 carries (4.9 yards per rush) against the Redhawks and Irish. On the other sideline, Wisconsin has looked robust opening the season 3-0, with a quality road win at Fresno State included in the bunch. However, Wisconsin could struggle against the Michigan defense as they were only able to put up 304 yards against Fresno State. Consider the Bulldogs responded by promptly giving up 598 yards to Toledo the next week. At worst, Michigan keeps this one close, and if things break right, they walk away with an outright victory.
Minnesota +19 Ohio State
In their games against IA foes, the Buckeyes have looked listless at best and atrocious at worst on offense. Excluding the opener against Youngstown State, the Buckeyes have failed to gain more than 309 yards in any game. To be fair, one of those games was against what may be the best team in the nation, Southern Cal, but the other two were against Ohio and Troy. Not that those schools are bad, in fact Ohio is by the far the best winless team in the nation, having also given Wyoming, Central Michigan, and Northwestern fits in close losses, and Troy is sure to be a contender in the Sun Belt, but they aren't in the class of elite teams. The Buckeyes are still strong on defense, even in the Southern Cal debacle, the Trojans only amassed 348 yards, but the offense seems lost without Beanie Wells. Meanwhile Minnesota has quadrupled last season's win total, albeit against less than stellar competition (Minnesota's opponents have two IA wins between them), but it beats losing to them, which the Gophers did last season. Minnesota will have trouble moving the ball against the Buckeye defense, but I expect them to be within shouting distance without posing much of a real threat to actually win.
Northwestern +8.5 Iowa
The Wildcats rolled through the non-conference portion of their schedule with a 4-0 record, positioning themselves for their first bowl bid since 2005. Despite their 4-0 record, the Wildcats have to be a little concerned about their passing game. Quarterback CJ Bacher has thrown just 3 touchdowns and 5 interceptions against inferior competition (Syracuse, Duke, Southern Illinois, and Ohio). While the senior quarterback has been disappointing, the senior running back has exceeded expectations. Tyrell Sutton has totalled 387 yards and 5 touchdowns in the 4 games, and is averaging 6.1 yards per rush. Northwestern's offense should keep them in the game against an Iowa team with a sound defense and sputtering offense.
Five Faves I Like
Last Week: 3-1-1
Overall: 9-10-1
Cincinnati -10.5 Akron
One thing Cincinnati has done extremely well under second-year head coach Brian Kelly is beat the snot out of non-BCS conference foes. Excluding their non-conference games against IAA teams, Kelly's Bearcats have played 6 games against teams from non-BCS leagues. They have won those 6 games by a combined 130 points. Only the 2 bowl wins, over Western Michigan (in Kelly's first game after he came over from Central Michigan) and Southern Miss were close. The Bearcats edged Western Michigan by 3 and beat Southern Miss by 10. Last week, Cincinnati beat one of the favorites in the MAC (Miami of Ohio) by 25. The trend of beating hapless foes should continue with a comfortable win over the Zips.
Louisville -3.5 Connecticut
Louisville's loss against Kentucky may end up being one of the most head-scratching results of the season. They looked totally lost against the Wildcats, gaining only 205 yards and committing 5 turnovers in a 27-2 loss. The offense played much better (as was expected) in their next game against IAA Tennessee Tech. Then against Kansas State, the offense continued to roll, piling up 577 yards (303 of it on the ground) against the second set of Wildcats. Freshman running back Victor Anderson has been the story thus far. After rushing 12 times for 31 yards against Kentucky, he piled up 290 yards while averaging 9.7 yards per carry in the next two games. The Huskies come into the Big East opener 4-0, but with nary a win against a squad likely bound for postseason play. Conneticut dispatched Temple and Baylor by 3 points apiece and blew out Hofstra and Virginia. The Huskies BMOC is running back Donald Brown who leads the nation in rushing yards (716) and rushing yards per game (179). Unfortunately, the Huskies biggest strength does not match up well with Louisville. The Cardinals have allowed only 126 yards on the ground in 3 games. The Cardinals should be able to contain Donald Brown and put the onus on quarterback Tyler Lorenzen, who has struggled thus far, throwing only a single touchdown against 6 interceptions.
Toledo -19.5 Florida International
Toledo has one of the biggest home field advantages in all of college football. They lost at home last week to Fresno State, but were able to put up nearly 600 yards of offense on the Bulldogs. This one could get ugly quickly as Florida International is one of the worst teams in IA. The only explanation for their performance last week, a 17-9 loss to South Florida, is somnambulism on the part of the Bulls.
Nebraska -7 Virginia Tech
Another week, another ugly win in the ACC for the Hokies. The Hokies have been outgained by each IA foe they have played (East Carolina, Georgia Tech, and North Carolina) by an average of over 100 yards per game, and yet they were able to win 2 of 3 thanks to defense, special teams, and some good old fashioned luck. Virginia Tech is not a good team. They may be good enough to win the Coastal Division, and maybe even the whole shebang in the ACC, but a night road game against an improving Nebraska squad screams blowout.
Kansas State -20 Louisiana-Lafayette
Fresh off a loss to Louisville that was not nearly as competitive as the 38-29 final score would indicate, the Wildcats return home to console themselves with the best remedy possible--a Sun Belt team. Keep in mind, this pick is by no means an endorsement of Kansas State, as they are likely to miss out on a bowl and may end up firing Ron Prince at season's end. However, the Ragin' Cajuns gave up 633 yards to Southern Miss! Kansas State should win this one rather easily.
Overall: 9-10-1
Cincinnati -10.5 Akron
One thing Cincinnati has done extremely well under second-year head coach Brian Kelly is beat the snot out of non-BCS conference foes. Excluding their non-conference games against IAA teams, Kelly's Bearcats have played 6 games against teams from non-BCS leagues. They have won those 6 games by a combined 130 points. Only the 2 bowl wins, over Western Michigan (in Kelly's first game after he came over from Central Michigan) and Southern Miss were close. The Bearcats edged Western Michigan by 3 and beat Southern Miss by 10. Last week, Cincinnati beat one of the favorites in the MAC (Miami of Ohio) by 25. The trend of beating hapless foes should continue with a comfortable win over the Zips.
Louisville -3.5 Connecticut
Louisville's loss against Kentucky may end up being one of the most head-scratching results of the season. They looked totally lost against the Wildcats, gaining only 205 yards and committing 5 turnovers in a 27-2 loss. The offense played much better (as was expected) in their next game against IAA Tennessee Tech. Then against Kansas State, the offense continued to roll, piling up 577 yards (303 of it on the ground) against the second set of Wildcats. Freshman running back Victor Anderson has been the story thus far. After rushing 12 times for 31 yards against Kentucky, he piled up 290 yards while averaging 9.7 yards per carry in the next two games. The Huskies come into the Big East opener 4-0, but with nary a win against a squad likely bound for postseason play. Conneticut dispatched Temple and Baylor by 3 points apiece and blew out Hofstra and Virginia. The Huskies BMOC is running back Donald Brown who leads the nation in rushing yards (716) and rushing yards per game (179). Unfortunately, the Huskies biggest strength does not match up well with Louisville. The Cardinals have allowed only 126 yards on the ground in 3 games. The Cardinals should be able to contain Donald Brown and put the onus on quarterback Tyler Lorenzen, who has struggled thus far, throwing only a single touchdown against 6 interceptions.
Toledo -19.5 Florida International
Toledo has one of the biggest home field advantages in all of college football. They lost at home last week to Fresno State, but were able to put up nearly 600 yards of offense on the Bulldogs. This one could get ugly quickly as Florida International is one of the worst teams in IA. The only explanation for their performance last week, a 17-9 loss to South Florida, is somnambulism on the part of the Bulls.
Nebraska -7 Virginia Tech
Another week, another ugly win in the ACC for the Hokies. The Hokies have been outgained by each IA foe they have played (East Carolina, Georgia Tech, and North Carolina) by an average of over 100 yards per game, and yet they were able to win 2 of 3 thanks to defense, special teams, and some good old fashioned luck. Virginia Tech is not a good team. They may be good enough to win the Coastal Division, and maybe even the whole shebang in the ACC, but a night road game against an improving Nebraska squad screams blowout.
Kansas State -20 Louisiana-Lafayette
Fresh off a loss to Louisville that was not nearly as competitive as the 38-29 final score would indicate, the Wildcats return home to console themselves with the best remedy possible--a Sun Belt team. Keep in mind, this pick is by no means an endorsement of Kansas State, as they are likely to miss out on a bowl and may end up firing Ron Prince at season's end. However, the Ragin' Cajuns gave up 633 yards to Southern Miss! Kansas State should win this one rather easily.
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Sensational Six: Mid-Majors Hoping to Break on Through
No Best/Worst Week Ever this week. Instead, I want to take a look at the 6 remaining unbeaten teams who ply their trade outside the BCS conferences. We'll examine several stats to see if we can derive which team is most likely to land a spot in one of the coveted BCS bowl games.
Ball State
Record: 4-0
AP Rank: 38
Coaches Rank: 34
Yards per Game Differential: +89.8
Points per Game Differential: +21.3
Best Win: either @Indiana (2-1) or Navy (2-2)
2nd Order IA Wins: Rutgers (0-3), Syracuse (1-3), Army (0-3), Western Kentucky (2-2)
Possible Stumbling Blocks: @Toledo 10/04/08, @Central Michigan 11/19/08
For the uninitiated, 2nd order wins are teams that were beaten by teams beaten by Ball State. Ball State has a 2nd order win over Rutgers because they beat Navy, who then beat Rutgers. You dig? Ball State's appearance on this list is likely merely a formality. They seem destined to lose either to Toledo or Central Michigan if not both. The Rockets are notoriously tough at home and the Chippewas are the 2-time defending MAC champions. Even if Ball State does manage to get through their schedule unscathed, will the win over Indiana hold much weight at season's end? I doubt it. The Hoosiers could well be headed for a last place finish in the Big 10. Plus the Cardinals, despite their hot start, are in the nether regions of the 'also receiving votes' portion of the polls.
Tulsa
Record: 3-0
AP Rank: 32
Coaches Rank: 33
Yards per Game Differential: +194
Points per Game Differential: +31.7
Best Win: New Mexico (1-3)
2nd Order IA Wins: Arizona (3-1)
Possible Stumbling Blocks: @Arkansas 11/01/08, @Houston 11/15/08, Conference USA Championship Game 12/06/08 (East Carolina?)
Tulsa has had a pretty easy schedule thus far, as evidenced by their lone 2nd order win, but to be fair, they have lambasted each team they've faced. Senior quarterback David Johnson, in his first season as a starter, leads the nation in pass efficiency with a rating of 225.93. Unfortunately for Tulsa, the one marquee name on their schedule is Arkansas, a team that will be lucky to qualify for a bowl game. Arkansas has already scraped by Western Illinois (IAA) and Lousiana-Monroe by a combined 5 points. If Tulsa beats them, have they really proven anything? Tulsa's best bet is to not only win out, but dominate each team they face. East Carolina could do them some favors by winning their division andfinishing with a final record of 10-2 or 9-3. That could set up a potential top-25 battle in the Conference USA Championship Game. Otherwise, an undefeated season likely means a Liberty Bowl trip and a shot at taking down an SEC school.
Boise State
Record: 3-0
AP Rank: 19
Coaches Rank: 20
Yards per Game Differential: +122.7
Points per Game Differential: +20
Best Win: @Oregon (3-1)
2nd Order IA Wins: Pittsburgh (2-1), Washington (0-3), Utah State (1-3), Purdue (2-1)
Possible Stumbling Blocks: @Southern Miss 10/11/08, @Nevada 11/22/08
For some unknown reason, Fresno State was getting all the preseason love to break into the BCS. I have no problem with Fresno State, but really, their rep as giant killers is based off something that happened 7 years ago. Sure they gave the Trojans a good game in 2005, but what BCS teams have they beaten recently? Since you asked. Georgia Tech (7-6) in 2002. Oregon State (8-5) and UCLA (6-7) in 2003. Washington (1-10), Kansas State (4-7), and Virginia (8-4) in 2004. Kansas State (5-7) and Georgia Tech (7-6) in 2007. The best of the lot is the 2004 victory in the MPC Computers Bowl over Virginia. Where's the beef? If you'll notice, I didn't even list Fresno as one of the possible stumbling blocks as Boise has yet to lose to a WAC foe at home since joining the league in 2001. In fact, their average margin of victory over Fresno in Boise has been 29 points. If the Broncos stumble, it won't be at home. The game in Hattiesburg will be a big one for the Golden Eagles and the game in Reno may well decide the WAC title.
TCU
Record: 4-0
AP Rank: 24
Coaches Rank: 23
Yards per Game Differential: +240
Points per Game Differential: +35.3
Best Win: either @New Mexico (1-3) or Stanford (2-2)
2nd Order IA Wins: Arizona (3-1), Oregon State (1-2), San Jose State (2-2)
Possible Stumbling Blocks: @Oklahoma 9/27/08, BYU 10/16/08, @Utah 11/06/08
For all the love their Mountain West brethren Utah and BYU are getting, TCU may well be the best team in the league. But alas, the Horned Frogs run at perfection is likely to end on Saturday as they must travel to Norman to take on the #2 Oklahoma Sooners. This game will present an interesting quandry if the Horned Frogs are competitive (10-14 points) in defeat. If they win out afterward, and own wins over Utah and BYU, who for the sake of argument finish 10-2 and 11-1 with 2 of their 3 combined losses coming to TCU and the other amongst themselves, would TCU be deserving of a BCS bid over an undefeated Boise State squad? Food for thought.
Utah
Record: 4-0
AP Rank: 17
Coaches Rank: 17
Yards per Game Differential: +217.3
Points per Game Differential: +19.5
Best Win: either @Michigan (1-2) or UNLV (3-1) or Air Force (3-1)
2nd Order IA Wins: Miami (Ohio) (1-3), Utah State (1-3), Arizona State (2-2), Iowa State (2-2), Idaho (1-3), Wyoming (2-2), Houston (1-3)
Possible Stumbling Blocks: @New Mexico 11/01/08, TCU 11/06/08, BYU 11/22/08
Utah has by far the most 2nd order wins of any undefeated mid-major. That is thanks mostly to UNLV and Air Force performing well outside the league. The Rebels upset Arizona State in OT on the road and followed that up with a home OT win over Iowa State. The Utes are fortunate in that they get their 2 biggest conference contenders at home. If Utah wins out, they will be BCS bound without question. Look out for the Michigan win, as it may look much better at the end of the year.
BYU
Record: 4-0
AP Rank: 11
Coaches Rank: 11
Yards per Game Differential: +178
Points per Game Differential: +32
Best Win: either @Washington (0-3) or UCLA (1-2)
2nd Order IA Wins: Tennessee (1-2), Ohio (0-4)
Possible Stumbling Blocks: @TCU 10/16/08, @Air Force 11/15/08, @Utah 11/22/08
BYU is the highest ranked mid-major team and with a bye and Utah State on tap, should be in the top-10 when they host New Mexico on October 11th. If the Cougars win out, they should be golden as their high ranking this early (its not even October yet) should get them in even if their computer numbers are pulled down by Washington and UCLA.
Ball State
Record: 4-0
AP Rank: 38
Coaches Rank: 34
Yards per Game Differential: +89.8
Points per Game Differential: +21.3
Best Win: either @Indiana (2-1) or Navy (2-2)
2nd Order IA Wins: Rutgers (0-3), Syracuse (1-3), Army (0-3), Western Kentucky (2-2)
Possible Stumbling Blocks: @Toledo 10/04/08, @Central Michigan 11/19/08
For the uninitiated, 2nd order wins are teams that were beaten by teams beaten by Ball State. Ball State has a 2nd order win over Rutgers because they beat Navy, who then beat Rutgers. You dig? Ball State's appearance on this list is likely merely a formality. They seem destined to lose either to Toledo or Central Michigan if not both. The Rockets are notoriously tough at home and the Chippewas are the 2-time defending MAC champions. Even if Ball State does manage to get through their schedule unscathed, will the win over Indiana hold much weight at season's end? I doubt it. The Hoosiers could well be headed for a last place finish in the Big 10. Plus the Cardinals, despite their hot start, are in the nether regions of the 'also receiving votes' portion of the polls.
Tulsa
Record: 3-0
AP Rank: 32
Coaches Rank: 33
Yards per Game Differential: +194
Points per Game Differential: +31.7
Best Win: New Mexico (1-3)
2nd Order IA Wins: Arizona (3-1)
Possible Stumbling Blocks: @Arkansas 11/01/08, @Houston 11/15/08, Conference USA Championship Game 12/06/08 (East Carolina?)
Tulsa has had a pretty easy schedule thus far, as evidenced by their lone 2nd order win, but to be fair, they have lambasted each team they've faced. Senior quarterback David Johnson, in his first season as a starter, leads the nation in pass efficiency with a rating of 225.93. Unfortunately for Tulsa, the one marquee name on their schedule is Arkansas, a team that will be lucky to qualify for a bowl game. Arkansas has already scraped by Western Illinois (IAA) and Lousiana-Monroe by a combined 5 points. If Tulsa beats them, have they really proven anything? Tulsa's best bet is to not only win out, but dominate each team they face. East Carolina could do them some favors by winning their division andfinishing with a final record of 10-2 or 9-3. That could set up a potential top-25 battle in the Conference USA Championship Game. Otherwise, an undefeated season likely means a Liberty Bowl trip and a shot at taking down an SEC school.
Boise State
Record: 3-0
AP Rank: 19
Coaches Rank: 20
Yards per Game Differential: +122.7
Points per Game Differential: +20
Best Win: @Oregon (3-1)
2nd Order IA Wins: Pittsburgh (2-1), Washington (0-3), Utah State (1-3), Purdue (2-1)
Possible Stumbling Blocks: @Southern Miss 10/11/08, @Nevada 11/22/08
For some unknown reason, Fresno State was getting all the preseason love to break into the BCS. I have no problem with Fresno State, but really, their rep as giant killers is based off something that happened 7 years ago. Sure they gave the Trojans a good game in 2005, but what BCS teams have they beaten recently? Since you asked. Georgia Tech (7-6) in 2002. Oregon State (8-5) and UCLA (6-7) in 2003. Washington (1-10), Kansas State (4-7), and Virginia (8-4) in 2004. Kansas State (5-7) and Georgia Tech (7-6) in 2007. The best of the lot is the 2004 victory in the MPC Computers Bowl over Virginia. Where's the beef? If you'll notice, I didn't even list Fresno as one of the possible stumbling blocks as Boise has yet to lose to a WAC foe at home since joining the league in 2001. In fact, their average margin of victory over Fresno in Boise has been 29 points. If the Broncos stumble, it won't be at home. The game in Hattiesburg will be a big one for the Golden Eagles and the game in Reno may well decide the WAC title.
TCU
Record: 4-0
AP Rank: 24
Coaches Rank: 23
Yards per Game Differential: +240
Points per Game Differential: +35.3
Best Win: either @New Mexico (1-3) or Stanford (2-2)
2nd Order IA Wins: Arizona (3-1), Oregon State (1-2), San Jose State (2-2)
Possible Stumbling Blocks: @Oklahoma 9/27/08, BYU 10/16/08, @Utah 11/06/08
For all the love their Mountain West brethren Utah and BYU are getting, TCU may well be the best team in the league. But alas, the Horned Frogs run at perfection is likely to end on Saturday as they must travel to Norman to take on the #2 Oklahoma Sooners. This game will present an interesting quandry if the Horned Frogs are competitive (10-14 points) in defeat. If they win out afterward, and own wins over Utah and BYU, who for the sake of argument finish 10-2 and 11-1 with 2 of their 3 combined losses coming to TCU and the other amongst themselves, would TCU be deserving of a BCS bid over an undefeated Boise State squad? Food for thought.
Utah
Record: 4-0
AP Rank: 17
Coaches Rank: 17
Yards per Game Differential: +217.3
Points per Game Differential: +19.5
Best Win: either @Michigan (1-2) or UNLV (3-1) or Air Force (3-1)
2nd Order IA Wins: Miami (Ohio) (1-3), Utah State (1-3), Arizona State (2-2), Iowa State (2-2), Idaho (1-3), Wyoming (2-2), Houston (1-3)
Possible Stumbling Blocks: @New Mexico 11/01/08, TCU 11/06/08, BYU 11/22/08
Utah has by far the most 2nd order wins of any undefeated mid-major. That is thanks mostly to UNLV and Air Force performing well outside the league. The Rebels upset Arizona State in OT on the road and followed that up with a home OT win over Iowa State. The Utes are fortunate in that they get their 2 biggest conference contenders at home. If Utah wins out, they will be BCS bound without question. Look out for the Michigan win, as it may look much better at the end of the year.
BYU
Record: 4-0
AP Rank: 11
Coaches Rank: 11
Yards per Game Differential: +178
Points per Game Differential: +32
Best Win: either @Washington (0-3) or UCLA (1-2)
2nd Order IA Wins: Tennessee (1-2), Ohio (0-4)
Possible Stumbling Blocks: @TCU 10/16/08, @Air Force 11/15/08, @Utah 11/22/08
BYU is the highest ranked mid-major team and with a bye and Utah State on tap, should be in the top-10 when they host New Mexico on October 11th. If the Cougars win out, they should be golden as their high ranking this early (its not even October yet) should get them in even if their computer numbers are pulled down by Washington and UCLA.
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Fab Five: Week IV
Last week was a banner week for me as I went 8-2 ATS, including a perfect sweep of the underdogs. Have I pulled a Marvin Lewis and set the bar too high? Time to find out (home teams in Bold).
5 Dogs I Like
Last Week: 5-0
Overall: 11-4
Boise State +10.5 Oregon
One of the best mid-major programs of the past decade visits an aspiring usurper to the Trojan's Pac-10 throne. An upset by the Broncos could position them for their 2nd BCS bid in 3 seasons. The Broncos have flown under the radar while beating Idaho State (IAA) and Bowling Green by a combined 69-14 in their first 2 games. Redshirt freshman quarterback Kellen Moore has filled in admirably for the departed Taylor Tharp, completing over 75% of his passes, while averaging nearly 11 yards per pass, and abstaining from throwing an interception. Speaking of quarterbacks, Oregon will be without he services of quarterback Justin Roper as he recovers from a knee injury. Fortunately, the Ducks are more of a running team anyway, having rushed for nearly 1000 yards in 3 games (970). The Ducks have torched their first 3 opponents, gaining 1687 yards. However, their first opponent, Washington, allowed 475 and 591 yards respectively to BYU and Oklahoma after the Ducks rolled up 496 yards against them. Their second opponent, Utah State, is one of the worst teams in IA and their most recent foe, Purdue, has never been down for their defensive prowess. Boise State will provide a stiff test for the Ducks, in a game Oregon should win by a slim margin.
New Mexico +10.5 Tulsa
The Lobos began the season with consecutive home losses to TCU and Texas A&M, and appeared to be in for an 0-3 start when undefeated Arizona came to town. But the Lobos were able to parlay 5 Arizona turnovers into a 36-28 upset win. Of course, that's not to say turnovers were the sole reason for the win, as the Lobos were only outgained by a little over 50 yards (388-335). Running back Rodney Ferguson topped 100 yards for the second straight game, gaining 158 on the ground in 26 carries. That performance came after he gashed Texas A&M for 135 yards on just 19 carries. For those scoring at home, thats an average of over 6 and a half yards per rush against BCS-conference defenses. Ferguson has to be licking his chops as the Lobos get set to face Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane have not changed much from last year's incarnation. They still move the ball well and score a lot (3rd in yards per game and 7th in points per game thus far) and struggle to stop others from doing the same (98th in yards allowed per game and 71st in scoring defense). Quarterback David Johnson is currently the nation's top-rated passer with an efficiency rating of 241.58. However, Tulsa's first 2 opponents have been UAB and North Texas. UAB gave up 601 yards to Tulsa, but proved that was not an aberration when they gave up 554 to Florida Atlantic and 548 to Tennessee in the following 2 games. North Texas has also proven to be defensively challenged as they allowed 471 yards to Kansas State and 425 to LSU in between the 555 they permitted Tulsa to gain. New Mexico is in another class defensively, having allowed only 915 yards in 3 games. But what should concern Tulsa even more is the fact that their defense gave up 450 yards to North Texas. In their other 2 games, against Kansas State and LSU, the Mean Green have accumulated 404 combined yards. The step up in competition will be too much and the Lobos will cover the double digit spread with ease.
Toledo +7 Fresno State
The Toledo Rockets have been a pretty good team under head coach Tom Amstutz, posting a 56-33 record in just over 7 seasons. However, at home, they have been a great team. Toledo is 35-6 under Amstutz at home in the Glass Bowl. Fresh off a tough home loss to Wisconsin that likely shattered their BCS dreams, Fresno State is walking into a huge trap.
Iowa St +3 UNLV
Iowa State lost last week, while UNLV pulled off a huge upset. However, a look at the box score shows something else. Iowa State outgained their opponent, Iowa, by 85 yards, yet lost thanks to 3 missed field goals, costly turnovers, and a Hawkeye punt return for a score. The Rebels were able to upset Arizona State despite allowing them to average 6.3 yards per play (compared to 4.7 for UNLV) by winning the tunrover battle (1-0), stopping the Sun Devils on a crucial 4th down, and blocking a field goal in overtime. This game should be close, but the wrong team is favored.
Arizona State +7 Georgia
Their loss to UNLV has taken some of the luster off of this matchup, but it is still one of the best of the week. Last week, Georgia was a 7.5 point road favorite against a team with a great defense and a sketchy offense. The touted Bulldog offense was actually outgained by that sketchy offense (thanks to the great defense of course). Now the Bulldogs are 7 point road favorites against a team with a very good offense and a defense that is of unknown prowess. The defense has looked good thus far against the likes of Northern Arizona, Stanford, and UNLV, but the Bulldogs feature a much higher class of athlete. However, the Sun Devil offense will certainly rank among the best Georgia has seen this season. Senior quarterback Rudy Carpenter currently ranks 9th in the nation in pass efficiency and I expect him to keep the Sun Devils in the game. Last time a top-5 SEC school game to Tempe, they escaped with a 35-31 win (LSU in 2005). If Georgia does win, it will be by the thinnest of margins.
Overall: 11-4
Boise State +10.5 Oregon
One of the best mid-major programs of the past decade visits an aspiring usurper to the Trojan's Pac-10 throne. An upset by the Broncos could position them for their 2nd BCS bid in 3 seasons. The Broncos have flown under the radar while beating Idaho State (IAA) and Bowling Green by a combined 69-14 in their first 2 games. Redshirt freshman quarterback Kellen Moore has filled in admirably for the departed Taylor Tharp, completing over 75% of his passes, while averaging nearly 11 yards per pass, and abstaining from throwing an interception. Speaking of quarterbacks, Oregon will be without he services of quarterback Justin Roper as he recovers from a knee injury. Fortunately, the Ducks are more of a running team anyway, having rushed for nearly 1000 yards in 3 games (970). The Ducks have torched their first 3 opponents, gaining 1687 yards. However, their first opponent, Washington, allowed 475 and 591 yards respectively to BYU and Oklahoma after the Ducks rolled up 496 yards against them. Their second opponent, Utah State, is one of the worst teams in IA and their most recent foe, Purdue, has never been down for their defensive prowess. Boise State will provide a stiff test for the Ducks, in a game Oregon should win by a slim margin.
New Mexico +10.5 Tulsa
The Lobos began the season with consecutive home losses to TCU and Texas A&M, and appeared to be in for an 0-3 start when undefeated Arizona came to town. But the Lobos were able to parlay 5 Arizona turnovers into a 36-28 upset win. Of course, that's not to say turnovers were the sole reason for the win, as the Lobos were only outgained by a little over 50 yards (388-335). Running back Rodney Ferguson topped 100 yards for the second straight game, gaining 158 on the ground in 26 carries. That performance came after he gashed Texas A&M for 135 yards on just 19 carries. For those scoring at home, thats an average of over 6 and a half yards per rush against BCS-conference defenses. Ferguson has to be licking his chops as the Lobos get set to face Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane have not changed much from last year's incarnation. They still move the ball well and score a lot (3rd in yards per game and 7th in points per game thus far) and struggle to stop others from doing the same (98th in yards allowed per game and 71st in scoring defense). Quarterback David Johnson is currently the nation's top-rated passer with an efficiency rating of 241.58. However, Tulsa's first 2 opponents have been UAB and North Texas. UAB gave up 601 yards to Tulsa, but proved that was not an aberration when they gave up 554 to Florida Atlantic and 548 to Tennessee in the following 2 games. North Texas has also proven to be defensively challenged as they allowed 471 yards to Kansas State and 425 to LSU in between the 555 they permitted Tulsa to gain. New Mexico is in another class defensively, having allowed only 915 yards in 3 games. But what should concern Tulsa even more is the fact that their defense gave up 450 yards to North Texas. In their other 2 games, against Kansas State and LSU, the Mean Green have accumulated 404 combined yards. The step up in competition will be too much and the Lobos will cover the double digit spread with ease.
Toledo +7 Fresno State
The Toledo Rockets have been a pretty good team under head coach Tom Amstutz, posting a 56-33 record in just over 7 seasons. However, at home, they have been a great team. Toledo is 35-6 under Amstutz at home in the Glass Bowl. Fresh off a tough home loss to Wisconsin that likely shattered their BCS dreams, Fresno State is walking into a huge trap.
Iowa St +3 UNLV
Iowa State lost last week, while UNLV pulled off a huge upset. However, a look at the box score shows something else. Iowa State outgained their opponent, Iowa, by 85 yards, yet lost thanks to 3 missed field goals, costly turnovers, and a Hawkeye punt return for a score. The Rebels were able to upset Arizona State despite allowing them to average 6.3 yards per play (compared to 4.7 for UNLV) by winning the tunrover battle (1-0), stopping the Sun Devils on a crucial 4th down, and blocking a field goal in overtime. This game should be close, but the wrong team is favored.
Arizona State +7 Georgia
Their loss to UNLV has taken some of the luster off of this matchup, but it is still one of the best of the week. Last week, Georgia was a 7.5 point road favorite against a team with a great defense and a sketchy offense. The touted Bulldog offense was actually outgained by that sketchy offense (thanks to the great defense of course). Now the Bulldogs are 7 point road favorites against a team with a very good offense and a defense that is of unknown prowess. The defense has looked good thus far against the likes of Northern Arizona, Stanford, and UNLV, but the Bulldogs feature a much higher class of athlete. However, the Sun Devil offense will certainly rank among the best Georgia has seen this season. Senior quarterback Rudy Carpenter currently ranks 9th in the nation in pass efficiency and I expect him to keep the Sun Devils in the game. Last time a top-5 SEC school game to Tempe, they escaped with a 35-31 win (LSU in 2005). If Georgia does win, it will be by the thinnest of margins.
Five Faves I Like
Last Week: 3-2
Overall: 6-9
Pittsburgh -1 Iowa
After their early season scrimmages against Maine (IAA) and Florida International where they looked like worldbeaters, piling up 969 yards of total offense, reality set in for the Hawkeyes against Iowa State. While they did manage to beat the Cyclones 17-5, they gained only 240 yards and scored only a single offensive touchdown. The defense still played well, holding the Cyclones to just 325 yards and picking off 3 passes. Now the Hawkeyes leave home for the first time this season to take on the Panthers. Pittsburgh is coming off a bye week after opening the season with a disappointing 1-1 record against 2 MAC schools (Bowling Green and Buffalo). The defense has been pretty good, limiting the Falcons and Bulls to just 602 combined yards, but the offense has not improved from last season. Super sophomore running back LeSean McCoy is only averaging 3.81 yards per rush and quarterback Bill Stull has just a solitary touchdown pass in 2 games. Still, the homefield advantage should be enough for the Panthers to get by against an equally offensively challenged opponent.
Michigan State -8.5 Notre Dame
Don't read too much into Notre Dame's seemingly easy 35-17 win over Michigan. The Irish benefitted from 6 Wolverine turnovers, including 4 fumble recoveries. Of their 5 touchdown drives, one went 11 yards, another went 14, and one came on a fumble return by linebacker Brian Smith. The Irish gained only 260 yards against the Wolverines and Jimmy Clausen completed less than half of his passes (10 for 21). Also, don't read too much into Michigan State's lackluster 17-0 win over Florida Atlantic. The weather was less than ideal and the Spartans decided to get back to the old school era of Big 10 football by pounding the rock. They threw only 15 passes all day while running the ball 58 times. The defense held a solid Florida Atlantic offense to only 225 yards and pretty good quarterback in Rusty Smith to 8 completions in 34 attempts. The Spartans should handle the Irish with relative ease.
Arkansas State -5.5 Middle Tennessee State
Arkansas State has been very impressive in the early going. They defeated Texas A&M in College Station in their first game, dropped 83 points on Texas Southern (IAA) in game 2, and nearly knocked off Southern Miss last week. The most encouraging sign for the Red Wolves is that they have outgained all 3 foes. They put up 415 yards against Texas A&M and allowed only 303. They lambasted Texas Southern with 670 yards of total offense and racked up 437 against Southern Miss while allowing the Golden Eagles only 348 yards. Meanwhile, Middle Tennessee State has rebounded from their opening loss to Troy by knocking off Maryland and coming within a single yard of upsetting Kentucky. The Blue Raiders have shown that they can throw the ball, as quarterback Joe Craddock has completed over 63% of his passes with 5 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions thus far. However, their running game has been virtually nonexistent. For the season, they are averaging just a shade over 2 yards per rush, and as a team have not topped 3 yards per carry in any game this season. The running game will prove to be the difference in this one as Arkansas State has yet to average under 5 yards per carry in any game, and are currently averaging over 7 yards per rush on the season.
Minnesota -6.5 Florida Atlantic
This is a revenge game of sorts for the Gophers who were upset by the Owls 42-39 in Boca Raton last season. Of course, the Owls were very fortunate to win that game as Minnesota nearly survived despite turning the ball over 7 times (to zero Owl turnovers). Minnesota is far from a Big 10 title contender this season, but they are improved over last year's team. Quarterback Adam Weber, the lone bright spot in last season's 1-win debacle, has continued his stellar play, ranking 18th in the nation in pass efficiency. He should be able to throw at will against an Owl secondary that gave up 326 yards and 2 touchdowns through the air to UAB.
North Carolina -2.5 Virginia Tech
Can Virginia Tech continue to be opportunistic and do enough to win the Coastal Division of the ACC? In their 2 games against IA foes (East Carolina and Georgia Tech), the Hokies have yet to gain more than 247 yards. The defense, usually the team's calling card has even been somewhat pourous. The Pirates racked up 369 yards and the Jackets gained 387. 3 Georgia Tech turnovers are the reason the Hokies are not staring up at the rest of the ACC from an 0-1 hole. That style of waiting for the opponent to screw up will get Virginia Tech to a bowl game, but it won't be enough to beat an improving Tar Heel team in Chapel Hill.
Overall: 6-9
Pittsburgh -1 Iowa
After their early season scrimmages against Maine (IAA) and Florida International where they looked like worldbeaters, piling up 969 yards of total offense, reality set in for the Hawkeyes against Iowa State. While they did manage to beat the Cyclones 17-5, they gained only 240 yards and scored only a single offensive touchdown. The defense still played well, holding the Cyclones to just 325 yards and picking off 3 passes. Now the Hawkeyes leave home for the first time this season to take on the Panthers. Pittsburgh is coming off a bye week after opening the season with a disappointing 1-1 record against 2 MAC schools (Bowling Green and Buffalo). The defense has been pretty good, limiting the Falcons and Bulls to just 602 combined yards, but the offense has not improved from last season. Super sophomore running back LeSean McCoy is only averaging 3.81 yards per rush and quarterback Bill Stull has just a solitary touchdown pass in 2 games. Still, the homefield advantage should be enough for the Panthers to get by against an equally offensively challenged opponent.
Michigan State -8.5 Notre Dame
Don't read too much into Notre Dame's seemingly easy 35-17 win over Michigan. The Irish benefitted from 6 Wolverine turnovers, including 4 fumble recoveries. Of their 5 touchdown drives, one went 11 yards, another went 14, and one came on a fumble return by linebacker Brian Smith. The Irish gained only 260 yards against the Wolverines and Jimmy Clausen completed less than half of his passes (10 for 21). Also, don't read too much into Michigan State's lackluster 17-0 win over Florida Atlantic. The weather was less than ideal and the Spartans decided to get back to the old school era of Big 10 football by pounding the rock. They threw only 15 passes all day while running the ball 58 times. The defense held a solid Florida Atlantic offense to only 225 yards and pretty good quarterback in Rusty Smith to 8 completions in 34 attempts. The Spartans should handle the Irish with relative ease.
Arkansas State -5.5 Middle Tennessee State
Arkansas State has been very impressive in the early going. They defeated Texas A&M in College Station in their first game, dropped 83 points on Texas Southern (IAA) in game 2, and nearly knocked off Southern Miss last week. The most encouraging sign for the Red Wolves is that they have outgained all 3 foes. They put up 415 yards against Texas A&M and allowed only 303. They lambasted Texas Southern with 670 yards of total offense and racked up 437 against Southern Miss while allowing the Golden Eagles only 348 yards. Meanwhile, Middle Tennessee State has rebounded from their opening loss to Troy by knocking off Maryland and coming within a single yard of upsetting Kentucky. The Blue Raiders have shown that they can throw the ball, as quarterback Joe Craddock has completed over 63% of his passes with 5 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions thus far. However, their running game has been virtually nonexistent. For the season, they are averaging just a shade over 2 yards per rush, and as a team have not topped 3 yards per carry in any game this season. The running game will prove to be the difference in this one as Arkansas State has yet to average under 5 yards per carry in any game, and are currently averaging over 7 yards per rush on the season.
Minnesota -6.5 Florida Atlantic
This is a revenge game of sorts for the Gophers who were upset by the Owls 42-39 in Boca Raton last season. Of course, the Owls were very fortunate to win that game as Minnesota nearly survived despite turning the ball over 7 times (to zero Owl turnovers). Minnesota is far from a Big 10 title contender this season, but they are improved over last year's team. Quarterback Adam Weber, the lone bright spot in last season's 1-win debacle, has continued his stellar play, ranking 18th in the nation in pass efficiency. He should be able to throw at will against an Owl secondary that gave up 326 yards and 2 touchdowns through the air to UAB.
North Carolina -2.5 Virginia Tech
Can Virginia Tech continue to be opportunistic and do enough to win the Coastal Division of the ACC? In their 2 games against IA foes (East Carolina and Georgia Tech), the Hokies have yet to gain more than 247 yards. The defense, usually the team's calling card has even been somewhat pourous. The Pirates racked up 369 yards and the Jackets gained 387. 3 Georgia Tech turnovers are the reason the Hokies are not staring up at the rest of the ACC from an 0-1 hole. That style of waiting for the opponent to screw up will get Virginia Tech to a bowl game, but it won't be enough to beat an improving Tar Heel team in Chapel Hill.
Monday, September 15, 2008
Best/Worst Week Ever: Week III
While the 3rd week of the college football season was supposed to be about 'The Collision at the Coliseum', you will read not a single sentence about that drubbing on this blog (OK maybe one), as there were plenty of other things to get excited about. First, the best of the week.
1. Old School, Power Football
Woody Hayes would have been particularly proud of several players on Saturday. In East Lansing, darkhorse Heismann candidate Javon Ringer toted the rock an amazing 43 times and cranked out 282 yards and 2 touchdowns against Florida Atlantic. Meanwhile, in Storrs, Donald Brown rushed for 206 yards and 3 touchdowns on only 20 carries as the Huskies obliterated the Cavaliers 45-10.
2. Maikon Bonani
The South Florida kicker booted a 43-yard field goal on the game's final play to knock off Kansas on Friday night. Bonani had never kicked in a college game before, but he made 3 of his 4 field goal attempts replacing the ineffective Delbert Alvarado who was only 1 of 4 kicking field goals thus far this season and had made only 63% of his kicks in 2006 and 2007.
3. Revenge of the Nerds
3 weekends of college football are in the books, and Vanderbilt, Duke, Northwestern, and Wake Forest have a combined 10-1 record, with the lone loss coming by Duke to Northwestern. The schedule toughens up from here on out, but don't be surprised if at least 2 and possibly 3 of these schools are playing in the postseason.
4. The Mountain West
Through 3 weekends of play, the Mountain West has 4 undefeated teams--BYU, Utah, TCU, and Air Force. That's more than the ACC (3), Big East (2), and Pac-10 (2). Over this past weekend, Mountain West schools went 7-1 outside the league, including a perfect 4-0 record against the Pac-10. BYU drubbed UCLA 59-0, TCU beat Stanford 31-14, New Mexico upset Arizona 36-28, and UNLV pulled the biggest shocker, beating Arizona State 23-20 in OT.
5. Bettors who took Iowa State +13.5
Many degenerates were likely cursing the screen in dismay as they watched Iowa State outgain Iowa by 85 yards (325-240) and spend nearly the entire 2nd half in Iowa territory, only to find themselves down 17-3 late in the 4th thanks to 3 missed field goals (including 1 from 21 yards) and a punt return for a touchdown by Iowa receiver Andy Brodell. Ah, but then Kirk Ferentz bailed them out by taking a safety with under 30 seconds to play to make it 17-5. The Cyclones covered and half the gambling nation cursed Mr. Ferentz, while the other half rejoiced gleefully. Those gents who had the Cyclones and the points clearly enjoyed the best week ever.
Of course, one man's smile is another's frown, so who didn't come correct over the weekend?
1. Offensive Football
The Auburn spread didn't exactly matriculate the ball down the field against Mississippi State. Of course, the Tigers 315 yards of offense was a Herculean effort compared to the 116 yards the Bulldogs put up. The teams combined to punt 18 times and had only 20 total first downs between them in a 3-2 Auburn win.
2. Rutgers
A 32-point home loss was probably not what Greg Schiano expected when the Tar Heels came to town on Thursday night. Quarterback Mike Teel has thrown 5 interceptions in just 2 games, and the Knights have scored just 2 touchdowns in this season.
3. Virginia
Getting trounced by Southern Cal is one thing, but getting beat by 5 touchdowns by Connecticut is quite another. The Cavs 'held' the Huskies to 506 yards. In their 2 previous games against Hofstra (IAA) and Temple, the Huskies gained 451 and 379 respectively.
4. The Pac-10
The Pac-10 is not doing a great job of shaking its rep as Southern Cal and the 9 dwarves. We already touchded on the 4 game sweep at the hands of the Mountain West, but Pac-10 teams also lost 3 other games over the weekend to finish only 3-7 against non-conference foes. In the biggest shocker, California fell to Maryland 35-27. I don't have any doubt that the Bears are better than the Terps (they outgained Maryland by over 150 yards), but a loss to a team that lost to Middle Tennessee State is not something you want on your resume. The Washington schools lost the other games. The Huskies were blown out at home by Oklahoma (55-14), but the Cougars, staking their claim as the worst BCS-conference team this side of Syracuse, lost 45-17 at Baylor. Besides Southern Cal, even the wins were very bland. Oregon State won their first game of the season 45-7 against a rebuilding Hawaii team and Oregon needed OT to survive Purdue. I've given the ACC and Big East a hard time this season in this spot, and I don't want to be accused of having an East Coast bias, so the worst week ever has to go to the Pac-10.
1. Old School, Power Football
Woody Hayes would have been particularly proud of several players on Saturday. In East Lansing, darkhorse Heismann candidate Javon Ringer toted the rock an amazing 43 times and cranked out 282 yards and 2 touchdowns against Florida Atlantic. Meanwhile, in Storrs, Donald Brown rushed for 206 yards and 3 touchdowns on only 20 carries as the Huskies obliterated the Cavaliers 45-10.
2. Maikon Bonani
The South Florida kicker booted a 43-yard field goal on the game's final play to knock off Kansas on Friday night. Bonani had never kicked in a college game before, but he made 3 of his 4 field goal attempts replacing the ineffective Delbert Alvarado who was only 1 of 4 kicking field goals thus far this season and had made only 63% of his kicks in 2006 and 2007.
3. Revenge of the Nerds
3 weekends of college football are in the books, and Vanderbilt, Duke, Northwestern, and Wake Forest have a combined 10-1 record, with the lone loss coming by Duke to Northwestern. The schedule toughens up from here on out, but don't be surprised if at least 2 and possibly 3 of these schools are playing in the postseason.
4. The Mountain West
Through 3 weekends of play, the Mountain West has 4 undefeated teams--BYU, Utah, TCU, and Air Force. That's more than the ACC (3), Big East (2), and Pac-10 (2). Over this past weekend, Mountain West schools went 7-1 outside the league, including a perfect 4-0 record against the Pac-10. BYU drubbed UCLA 59-0, TCU beat Stanford 31-14, New Mexico upset Arizona 36-28, and UNLV pulled the biggest shocker, beating Arizona State 23-20 in OT.
5. Bettors who took Iowa State +13.5
Many degenerates were likely cursing the screen in dismay as they watched Iowa State outgain Iowa by 85 yards (325-240) and spend nearly the entire 2nd half in Iowa territory, only to find themselves down 17-3 late in the 4th thanks to 3 missed field goals (including 1 from 21 yards) and a punt return for a touchdown by Iowa receiver Andy Brodell. Ah, but then Kirk Ferentz bailed them out by taking a safety with under 30 seconds to play to make it 17-5. The Cyclones covered and half the gambling nation cursed Mr. Ferentz, while the other half rejoiced gleefully. Those gents who had the Cyclones and the points clearly enjoyed the best week ever.
Of course, one man's smile is another's frown, so who didn't come correct over the weekend?
1. Offensive Football
The Auburn spread didn't exactly matriculate the ball down the field against Mississippi State. Of course, the Tigers 315 yards of offense was a Herculean effort compared to the 116 yards the Bulldogs put up. The teams combined to punt 18 times and had only 20 total first downs between them in a 3-2 Auburn win.
2. Rutgers
A 32-point home loss was probably not what Greg Schiano expected when the Tar Heels came to town on Thursday night. Quarterback Mike Teel has thrown 5 interceptions in just 2 games, and the Knights have scored just 2 touchdowns in this season.
3. Virginia
Getting trounced by Southern Cal is one thing, but getting beat by 5 touchdowns by Connecticut is quite another. The Cavs 'held' the Huskies to 506 yards. In their 2 previous games against Hofstra (IAA) and Temple, the Huskies gained 451 and 379 respectively.
4. The Pac-10
The Pac-10 is not doing a great job of shaking its rep as Southern Cal and the 9 dwarves. We already touchded on the 4 game sweep at the hands of the Mountain West, but Pac-10 teams also lost 3 other games over the weekend to finish only 3-7 against non-conference foes. In the biggest shocker, California fell to Maryland 35-27. I don't have any doubt that the Bears are better than the Terps (they outgained Maryland by over 150 yards), but a loss to a team that lost to Middle Tennessee State is not something you want on your resume. The Washington schools lost the other games. The Huskies were blown out at home by Oklahoma (55-14), but the Cougars, staking their claim as the worst BCS-conference team this side of Syracuse, lost 45-17 at Baylor. Besides Southern Cal, even the wins were very bland. Oregon State won their first game of the season 45-7 against a rebuilding Hawaii team and Oregon needed OT to survive Purdue. I've given the ACC and Big East a hard time this season in this spot, and I don't want to be accused of having an East Coast bias, so the worst week ever has to go to the Pac-10.
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Fab Five: Week III
Last week was a mediocre 5-5 finish. I know you, faithful readers, expect much more of me, and I do as well. Time to post the first winning week (home teams in Bold).
5 Dogs I Like
Last Week: 4-1
Overall: 6-4
Iowa State +13.5 Iowa
There are few certainties in life. Death, taxes, and a close game or upset by Iowa State in this rivalry. 5 of the past 10 meetings have been decided by 7 points or less, and Iowa State has won 3 of the 5 meetings decided by more than one-score. Iowa has laid the lumber to its first 2 foes, winning by a combined score of 88-3. However, those victims were Maine (IAA) and Florida International (one of the worst IA teams). Meanwhile, Iowa State has seen a much slimmer margin in its 2 victories, beating North Dakota State (IAA) and Kent State by a 92-45 score. The yardage total is even tighter, as Iowa State has only outgained their opponents by 2 total yards. Still, recent history says the Cylones will at least keep this one close.
Tulane +13 East Carolina
I got burned last week by the Pirates when they upet West Virginia. While Tulane has nowhere near the history or talent of Virginia Tech or West Virginia, they do have some familiarity with East Carolina. Plus the Green Wave payed very well last week against Alabama, limiting the Tide to 172 total yards. And last but not least, this game is in the Superdome, representing the first true road game of the season for East Carolina. I don't expect Tulane to pull off the upset, but this game should be close.
Toledo +2 Eastern Michigan
Both these teams were overmatched in losses to BCS-conference schools last week. Toledo was blown out by Arizona, and Eastern Michigan fell at Michigan State. Toledo has beaten Eastern Michigan 7 times in their last 8 encounters. Expect it to be 8 of 9 after Saturday.
South Carolina +7.5 Georgia
5 of of the past 7 games in this series have been decided by 6 points or less. South Carolina is catching a lot of flack after their second consecutive loss to Vanderbilt, but if you look at the stats, the defense still played well. Vandy gained only 225 yards, after NC State managed only 138 in the opener. Meanwhile, Georgia has dominated its first 2 opponents, scoring 101 combined points on Georgia Southern (IAA) and Central Michigan. However, the Dogs have allowed nearly 600 yards in those 2 games, meaning the Gamecock offense could put some points on the board. This one will be very close, and South Carolina has a real chance to pull off the upset.
SMU +36.5 Texas Tech
I don't think this game will be very close, but Texas Tech has been very average on offense thus far against Eastern Washington and Nevada, especially considering the preseason expectations. SMU will have enough offense to stay within 5 touchdowns.
Overall: 6-4
Iowa State +13.5 Iowa
There are few certainties in life. Death, taxes, and a close game or upset by Iowa State in this rivalry. 5 of the past 10 meetings have been decided by 7 points or less, and Iowa State has won 3 of the 5 meetings decided by more than one-score. Iowa has laid the lumber to its first 2 foes, winning by a combined score of 88-3. However, those victims were Maine (IAA) and Florida International (one of the worst IA teams). Meanwhile, Iowa State has seen a much slimmer margin in its 2 victories, beating North Dakota State (IAA) and Kent State by a 92-45 score. The yardage total is even tighter, as Iowa State has only outgained their opponents by 2 total yards. Still, recent history says the Cylones will at least keep this one close.
Tulane +13 East Carolina
I got burned last week by the Pirates when they upet West Virginia. While Tulane has nowhere near the history or talent of Virginia Tech or West Virginia, they do have some familiarity with East Carolina. Plus the Green Wave payed very well last week against Alabama, limiting the Tide to 172 total yards. And last but not least, this game is in the Superdome, representing the first true road game of the season for East Carolina. I don't expect Tulane to pull off the upset, but this game should be close.
Toledo +2 Eastern Michigan
Both these teams were overmatched in losses to BCS-conference schools last week. Toledo was blown out by Arizona, and Eastern Michigan fell at Michigan State. Toledo has beaten Eastern Michigan 7 times in their last 8 encounters. Expect it to be 8 of 9 after Saturday.
South Carolina +7.5 Georgia
5 of of the past 7 games in this series have been decided by 6 points or less. South Carolina is catching a lot of flack after their second consecutive loss to Vanderbilt, but if you look at the stats, the defense still played well. Vandy gained only 225 yards, after NC State managed only 138 in the opener. Meanwhile, Georgia has dominated its first 2 opponents, scoring 101 combined points on Georgia Southern (IAA) and Central Michigan. However, the Dogs have allowed nearly 600 yards in those 2 games, meaning the Gamecock offense could put some points on the board. This one will be very close, and South Carolina has a real chance to pull off the upset.
SMU +36.5 Texas Tech
I don't think this game will be very close, but Texas Tech has been very average on offense thus far against Eastern Washington and Nevada, especially considering the preseason expectations. SMU will have enough offense to stay within 5 touchdowns.
Five Faves I Like
Last Week: 1-4
Overall: 3-7
Duke -1.5 Navy
Anyone know the last time the Blue Devils were favored? Take a nostalgic trip with me to Labor Day Weekend 2005. Tim Tebow was a high school senior, no doubt getting constant text messages and IMs from UrbanGainesville62, and the Duke Blue Devils were a 3-point road favorite at East Carolina. As Duke is want to do, they lost that game 24-21, and have won only thrice since that fateful day. However, David Cutcliffe has made Duke football relevant again. Witness last weeks game, when the Blue Devils outplayed Northwestern in the box score (gaining 144 more yards), but fell on the field 24-20. The Duke defense held quarterback CJ Bacher under 50% in completion percentage and running back Tyrell Sutton gained only 66 yards. Navy will probably top 300 yards on the gound, but for a team that has yet to stop anyone (Ball State averaged over 8 and a half yards per play against them last week), those yards won't come with enough points to win or cover.
Houston -2 Air Force
Despite the absence of Art Briles, the Houston offense has been just as prolific as ever, piling up nearly 1100 yards in 2 games. Unfortunately, the defense was not able to do much of anything against Oklahoma State, allowing nearly 700 yards (699) and letting the Cowboys average a stellar 9.7 yards per play. Air Force does not quite pack the offensive firepower Oklahoma State does, and since this game is in Houston, lay points with the Cougs.
Michigan -2 Notre Dame
Last year these storied programs were both 0-2 when they met in the Big House. What a difference a year makes! Now neither team has a losing record. Of course, thats not to say either sqaud is a national title contender. Quite the contrary. Notre Dame very nearly lost at home to a team (San Diego State) that lost to Cal Poly (IAA school) a week before. Meanwhile, Michigan had trouble putting away a team that got waxed by Vanderbilt (Miami of Ohio). The good news is that both teams found a little offensive punch in their wins. Michigan rushed for 178 yards (74 of it from freshman Sam McGuffie) after netting only 36 yards on the ground in the opener. In South Bend, Jimmy Clausen showed some of the skills that made him a ballyhooed recruit, matching a career high with 3 touchdown passes. While the Domers are playing at home, that didn't stop them from almost losing to an Aztec team playing for a lame duck coach. With each game, expect improvement from the Michigan offense. They won't be West Virginia (circa 2007) by the end of the season, but they will be a competent BCS-conference unit, and they'll do enough Saturday to beat the Irish by at least a field goal.
Western Michigan -8 Idaho
Who is the worst Division IA football team? I'd say the candidates thus far are Florida International, North Texas, Utah State, and drum roll...Idaho. The Vandals were crushed 70-0 by Arizona in their opener, but rebounded to beat Idaho State (IAA) this past weekend. Of course, even in the win, Idaho gave up 383 yards and 27 points to the Bengals. Meanwhile, Western Michigan rebounded from a decent showing in a loss at Nebraska to upend Northern Illinois 29-26. Quarterback Tim Hiller has completed nearly 65% of his passes and thrown 5 touchdowns to just 1 interception in 2 games against much tougher competition that what he will face in the Kibbie Dome on Saturday. The Broncos, one of the best teams in the MAC, should win this one going away.
Wisconsin -2 Fresno State
The Bulldogs win over Rutgers was much closer than the 24-7 margin would lead you to believe. The Knights had more first downs (22) than the Bulldogs (16) and were only outgained by 53 yards. The Bulldogs were also +2 in turnovers and were the beneficiaries of 2 missed field goals and a failed 4th down attempt in the red zone. Not that the win is meaningless, but it helps to put it in perspective. Fresno State won, but the game was quite contentious, and they should not count on getting the same breaks against the Badgers. Wisconsin has roughed up 2 non-BCS teams (Akron and Marshall), and while this game should be much more competitive, expect the Badgers to pull out the road win.
Overall: 3-7
Duke -1.5 Navy
Anyone know the last time the Blue Devils were favored? Take a nostalgic trip with me to Labor Day Weekend 2005. Tim Tebow was a high school senior, no doubt getting constant text messages and IMs from UrbanGainesville62, and the Duke Blue Devils were a 3-point road favorite at East Carolina. As Duke is want to do, they lost that game 24-21, and have won only thrice since that fateful day. However, David Cutcliffe has made Duke football relevant again. Witness last weeks game, when the Blue Devils outplayed Northwestern in the box score (gaining 144 more yards), but fell on the field 24-20. The Duke defense held quarterback CJ Bacher under 50% in completion percentage and running back Tyrell Sutton gained only 66 yards. Navy will probably top 300 yards on the gound, but for a team that has yet to stop anyone (Ball State averaged over 8 and a half yards per play against them last week), those yards won't come with enough points to win or cover.
Houston -2 Air Force
Despite the absence of Art Briles, the Houston offense has been just as prolific as ever, piling up nearly 1100 yards in 2 games. Unfortunately, the defense was not able to do much of anything against Oklahoma State, allowing nearly 700 yards (699) and letting the Cowboys average a stellar 9.7 yards per play. Air Force does not quite pack the offensive firepower Oklahoma State does, and since this game is in Houston, lay points with the Cougs.
Michigan -2 Notre Dame
Last year these storied programs were both 0-2 when they met in the Big House. What a difference a year makes! Now neither team has a losing record. Of course, thats not to say either sqaud is a national title contender. Quite the contrary. Notre Dame very nearly lost at home to a team (San Diego State) that lost to Cal Poly (IAA school) a week before. Meanwhile, Michigan had trouble putting away a team that got waxed by Vanderbilt (Miami of Ohio). The good news is that both teams found a little offensive punch in their wins. Michigan rushed for 178 yards (74 of it from freshman Sam McGuffie) after netting only 36 yards on the ground in the opener. In South Bend, Jimmy Clausen showed some of the skills that made him a ballyhooed recruit, matching a career high with 3 touchdown passes. While the Domers are playing at home, that didn't stop them from almost losing to an Aztec team playing for a lame duck coach. With each game, expect improvement from the Michigan offense. They won't be West Virginia (circa 2007) by the end of the season, but they will be a competent BCS-conference unit, and they'll do enough Saturday to beat the Irish by at least a field goal.
Western Michigan -8 Idaho
Who is the worst Division IA football team? I'd say the candidates thus far are Florida International, North Texas, Utah State, and drum roll...Idaho. The Vandals were crushed 70-0 by Arizona in their opener, but rebounded to beat Idaho State (IAA) this past weekend. Of course, even in the win, Idaho gave up 383 yards and 27 points to the Bengals. Meanwhile, Western Michigan rebounded from a decent showing in a loss at Nebraska to upend Northern Illinois 29-26. Quarterback Tim Hiller has completed nearly 65% of his passes and thrown 5 touchdowns to just 1 interception in 2 games against much tougher competition that what he will face in the Kibbie Dome on Saturday. The Broncos, one of the best teams in the MAC, should win this one going away.
Wisconsin -2 Fresno State
The Bulldogs win over Rutgers was much closer than the 24-7 margin would lead you to believe. The Knights had more first downs (22) than the Bulldogs (16) and were only outgained by 53 yards. The Bulldogs were also +2 in turnovers and were the beneficiaries of 2 missed field goals and a failed 4th down attempt in the red zone. Not that the win is meaningless, but it helps to put it in perspective. Fresno State won, but the game was quite contentious, and they should not count on getting the same breaks against the Badgers. Wisconsin has roughed up 2 non-BCS teams (Akron and Marshall), and while this game should be much more competitive, expect the Badgers to pull out the road win.
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