2011 Conference USA Preview

We have finished out sojourn through the BCS leagues and now we move to the mid-majors. First up is Conference USA. To see how last year's projections performed, follow this link.



Conference USA and the BCS
Say what you will about the BCS and its exclusionary practices, but one of the five major bowls (Fiesta, Orange, Rose, Sugar, and the BCS National Championship) has had at least one of their participants be from a non-BCS or mid-major conference each of the past 5 seasons and 6 out of the last 7. However, those participants have all either come from the WAC (Boise or Hawaii) or the Mountain West (TCU or Utah). Despite being as strong and occasionally stronger than the WAC or the Mountain West (top to bottom), Conference USA has yet to have a program rise above the madding crowd and contend for a BCS bowl bid. Since the BCS was formed prior to the 1998 season, only a single Conference USA team has made it through the entirety of the regular season unscathed.Meanwhile, the WAC and Mountain West have produced a combined 9 unbeaten regular seasons in that span. The WAC has produced an unbeaten team in 5 of the past 7 seasons and the Mountain West has produced 3 consecutive champions with an unblemished regular season record. Conference USA's only unbeaten campaign was produced way back in 1998, by a team with just one bowl appearance since then. Since their meteoric rise in 1998, a season that made household names and millionaires out of Tommy Bowden and Rich Rodriguez, the Green Wave of Tulane have gone a collective 49-92.

Outside of producing undefeated seasons, Conference USA has also had a much more difficult time producing teams that register on the national radar. Compare the dearth of Top-25 teams from Conference USA with that produced by the WAC and Mountain West.When UCF and Tulsa finished the 2010 season in the nether regions of the Top-25, it marked the first time a Conference USA team had finished the season ranked since Louisville (now in the Big East) in 2004!. You have to go all the way back to 1999 to find the most recent time a current Conference USA team finished the season ranked (as a Conference USA team). They have also not had much luck producing top-10 teams.The WAC has produced Top-10 teams the past 2 seasons, while the Mountain West had done it for 3 consecutive years. The only teams to finish in the Top-10 for Conference USA were Louisville (2004) and Tulane (1998).

So that begs the question, is there a team in Conference USA that could potentially topple this decade's worth of mediocrity. There is one. Houston. Now, I certainly am not saying Houston will go undefeated, but the Cougars certainly have a shot, likely the best shot in Conference USA. For starters, they should field the most explosive offense in the conference with the return of quarterback Case Keenum, who missed most of last season with a torn ACL. Secondly, and perhaps most importantly is the schedule. So you don't have to look it up, here it is. The Cougars 4 non-conference games are all imminently winnable. They get to host a decent, but hardly imposing team from a BCS conference (UCLA) in the season opener. They follow that up with trips to face a Sun Belt (North Texas) and WAC (Louisiana Tech) foe. While the Mean Green and Bulldogs will likely be improved this season, Houston should be favored in both. They return home to close non-league action with a bodybag game against IAA Georgia State. Once league play begins, notice the Cougars do not have to face either of the projected top duo from the East (Southern Miss and UCF). The Cougars will likely be favored in 3 of their 4 road conference games (UTEP, UAB, and Tulane). Not that being favored did them any good the last time they traveled to El Paso. With some good fortune, the Cougars could potentially be unbeaten heading into their regular season finale with division rival Tulsa!

And what of Tulsa, and SMU, and Southern Miss, and UCF? Why can't they harbor dreams of an undefeated season? Unfortunately, the non-conference slate will have Tulsa out of contention for an unbeaten season early as they travel to Oklahoma on opening weekend and then visit Boise State 3 weeks later. Similarly, SMU tangles with both Texas A&M and TCU on the road in September. Southern Miss has things a little easier with trips to Virginia and Navy ranking as their toughest non-conference tests. However, the Golden Eagles have not lost fewer than 4 games in a season since 2003. UCF hosts Boston College in non-league action with a chance for a somewhat marquee home scalp, but they must also travel cross-country to BYU and face Southern Miss on the road once conference play starts,

2011 SEC Preview

With just a little over 4 weeks to go before kickoff (29 days) we come to the last of our BCS conference previews. The SEC has produced the last 5 BCS national champions and looks poised to at least send a team to New Orleans for another shot at the crown. To see last year's picks, follow this link.




Marcus Lattimore Fever: Catch It
As a Columbia resident, I know first hand the love South Carolina fans feel for Marcus Lattimore. As a freshman, Lattimore was an integral piece of a South Carolina team that won its first ever SEC East title in 2010. In the process of that run, Lattimore became the 12th freshman running back from a BCS conference to top 1000 yards on the ground since 2007. That's pretty good, but hardly elite company. The following table lists all 12 running backs, as well as their rush attempts, rush yards, yards per attempt, and touchdowns. Their ranking in rushing yards, yards per attempt, and touchdowns is also included in parentheses.Lattimore's ranking among the 12 seems to make him more Simon the Zealot than Simon Peter. Aside from his high touchdown total, he ranked below the median average in rushing yards and is dead last in yards per rush. Of course, some will attribute this to playing in the SEC!. To those folks, I would point out that Michael Dyer (3rd in yards per attempt) and Knowshon Moreno (7th in yards per attempt) also competed in the rough and tumble SEC. So it looks like Lattimore may be a tad overrated. But just to be safe lets look at one more measurable area of a running back's performance. The following table lists those same 12 running backs, only this time with their total receptions, receiving yards, yards per catch, and touchdowns (with their rank among the 12 in parentheses).Here is where Lattimore equals the hype. His receiving numbers blow away nearly every other running back. LeSean McCoy had more receptions for Pitt, but Lattimore had nearly double his total yardage! Only two other backs averaged more than 10 yards per catch, the aforementioned Moreno and Ryan Williams from Virginia Tech. Williams was also the only back to score multiple touchdowns through the air. While Lattimore is a fine player carrying the football, he is a real game changer snagging passes out of the backfield.

2011 Pac-12 Preview

We are now under 5 weeks until the season gets underway. 34 days from today, if you want specifics. This week, Statistically Speaking previews the new Pac-12. In a bit of irony, 5 conferences are changing league membership this season, but the Pac-12 (formerly Pac-10) is is the only one to undergo a name change to match. For last season's Pac-10 projections, follow this link.



Fair and Unbalanced
The Cal Bears were one of the more unbalanced teams in the nation in 2010. The Bears ended the season with the worst offense in the Pac-10 and the best defense. The difference between their offensive SDPI (-1.37) and their defensive SDPI (1.46) was quite high, at 2.83 standard deviations. On its own, this number seems very large, but as a standard of comparison, I looked at all of my current SDPI ratings for the six seasons from 2005-2010 to see where it would place overall. It still placed quite high, at 13th overall. The table below lists Cal and the 12 teams in that aforementioned span that had larger differences between their offensive and defensive SDPI ratings. The table also lists their offensive, defensive, and total SDPI, as well as their ranking in those categories in their respective conferences that season. To see how these teams typically performed, their conference and overall record are included as well.While Cal had the misfortune of suffering a losing season, some of these unbalanced teams were actually quite successful. The most unbalanced team on this list, Houston in 2009, won their division and BCS heavyweights Auburn (2007) and Oklahoma (2006) played in big bowls (Chick-Fil-A for Auburn and the Fiesta for Oklahoma). However, as one might expect, on the whole these teams were about average in terms of their final record. Their cumulative league record is 50-54 and their cumulative overall record in 80-82. For the most part, being very good on one side of the ball and very bad on the other, usually portends overall mediocrity.

2011 Big 12 Preview

Last time we previewed the Big 10, which now has 12 teams, and this week we take a look at what the coming season may have in store for the Big 12, which now has 10 teams. Give the Big 12 credit, they will crown a true champion in 2011, as their conference schedule now consists of 9 games, meaning it is a true round-robin format. Enjoy the Big 12 while you can because we'll probably be seeing another seismic realignment shift in the college football landscape very soon. To check out last year's Big 12 projections, follow this link.


Mr. Griffin Goes to Waco
For anyone who follows college football closely, what I am about to type is as obvious as Jim Tressel's culpability: Robert Griffin means a whole lot to Baylor. For those who may not know, Robert Griffin is the fleet-footed Baylor quarterback, who last season helped lead the Bears to their first bowl game since 1994, and first ever season of at least a .500 record in Big 12 play. While Griffin did play for the Bears in 2009, he was injured in the season's third game and did not take a snap during conference play. Without him, the Bears endured through a typical Baylor season, finishing 1-7 versus the conference, with just one loss coming by fewer than single digits. The Bears relative emergence in the Big 12 in 2010 was entirely a result of their offensive improvement under Griffin. The defense ranked 11th in SDPI in the Big 12 in 2009 and a marginally better 10th in 2010. However, the offense improved from 10th in the Big 12 in SDPI in 2009 to 2nd in 2010 with Griffin at the controls. Instead of merely focusing on SDPI, I wanted to look at how much more often Baylor scored in 2010. While yards (the measure of SDPI) are a key contributing factor to points, scoring touchdowns is focus of every offense. With that in mind, take a look at the following table which lists offensive touchdowns for Big 12 teams in conference play in 2009 and 2010.
Baylor ranked dead last in the Big 12 in 2009, scoring just 11 offensive touchdowns in 8 conference games. In 2010, they improved their offensive output by an amazing 23 touchdowns (nearly 3 additional offensive touchdowns per game). One man made the difference between the basement and mediocrity.