Overall: 45-44-2
Massachusetts +2 Florida International
Obviously, this game sticks out like a sore thumb on Championship Saturday. The Minutemen and Panthers are far from college football royalty, but both have enjoyed solid seasons in 2017. Florida International has won seven games for the first time since 2011 and with a win here and a victory in their bowl game, the Panthers would set the school record for wins in their first season under Butch Davis. The Panthers are not necessarily a good team, but they have taken advantage of a weak conference and solid play in close games (4-1 record in one-score games) to clinch a winning record after averaging under four wins per season over the past five years. The Panthers will look to win their eighth game against a Massachusetts team having their best season since joining FBS. The Minutemen are 4-7, but have won four of five since an 0-6 start. Massachusetts has to regret how poorly they played over the first half of the season. The Minutemen lost winnable games to Hawaii, Coastal Carolina, and Old Dominion, not to mention tight contests with Ohio and Tennessee. Had the Minutemen won one of those games, they would be in position to become bowl eligible with a win here. Quarterback Andrew Ford has quietly enjoyed a fine season, tossing eighteen touchdown passes against just three interceptions. Massachusetts is off a bye and for a team that will not be participating in the postseason, this is their bowl game. The Minutemen are 4-0 ATS as a road underdog in 2017 and Florida International has yet to cover in two chances as a home favorite this season. Take the Minutemen to not only cover, but win outright here.
Louisiana-Monroe +27 Florida State
In an effort to keep their bowl streak alive, Florida State rescheduled their game with Louisiana-Monroe that was initially canceled due to Hurricane Irma back in September. The Seminoles have endured a disappointing campaign that began with Deondre Francois going down in the opener and continued with a 3-5 ACC record. The Seminoles struggled dramatically on offense this season, scoring just nineteen offensive touchdowns in ten games against FBS teams. The Seminoles did put the hammer down on Delaware State, but otherwise were pretty impotent on offense. Louisiana-Monroe should provide a remedy for Florida State's offensive struggles. The Warhawks ranked dead last in the Sun Belt in terms of yards allowed per play and permitted over forty points per game over the course of the season. However, the Warhawks were able to win four games because their offense was able to move the ball effectively. The Warhawks ranked first in the Sun Belt in yards per play and averaged north of thirty-six points per game. Florida State is the better team, but how motivated will they be for a Noon kick in a game they should win without much effort? Oh, and let's not discount the rumors swirling around their head coach. Meanwhile, for a Louisiana-Monroe team that will not have a thirteenth game, this is their bowl. I don't think Louisiana-Monroe will ever stand a legitimate chance of winning, but they should keep this within four touchdowns.
Idaho +6 Georgia State
With a 3-8 record, and subsequently no bowl hopes, this will be Idaho's last game as an FBS program. After posting a surprising 9-4 mark last season, the Vandals have regressed in 2017. Their offense which ranked second in the Sun Belt in yards per play last season is currently last in the conference. Their per game scoring has also fallen by ten points. Regression should have been expected with the team losing five of their top-six receivers from last season. However, this precipitous fall is outside the realm of reasonable expectations. Thankfully though, the defense has improved, ranking third in the Sun Belt in yards allowed per play and keeping the Vandals in games. Five of their eight losses (and all of their conference losses) have been by a touchdown or less. I expect another close game in Atlanta on Saturday. Georgia State will be looking to clinch their first winning season at the FBS level under first-year head coach Shawn Elliott. The Panthers have rebounded after a rough opening night loss to an FCS team and have actually won six of eight since on 0-2 start. However, four of those wins have come by a touchdown or less and all have come against teams that will finish 2017 with a losing record. Idaho has been money in the bank as a road underdog. In Paul Petrino's first year as head coach in 2013, the Vandals produced a 1-6 ATS mark in the role. Since then, they are 18-4 ATS as a road dog including a perfect 17-0 against Group of Five teams! Look for the Vandals to keep this one close and potentially win outright in their FBS swan song.
South Alabama +10 New Mexico State
Without hyperbole, this is probably the biggest game for New Mexico State since the 1960s. A win here would make the Aggies bowl eligible, and while a bid would not be guaranteed, word is the Arizona Bowl is making eyes at them. The Aggies have progressed in baby steps under Doug Martin, who has one of the most thankless jobs in FBS (something he should be familiar with based on his other head coaching job). A bowl would also be a nice parting gift as the Aggies embark on life in the FBS wilderness as an independent next season. The Aggies are solid on both sides of the ball, ranking in the top half of the Sun Belt in yards per play and yards allowed per play. However, ten points is a lot for them to be giving against a South Alabama team that should be plenty motivated to send their coach out on a positive note. About two weeks ago, Joey Jones, the only coach the Jaguars have ever known, announced he would be resigning at season's end. The Jaguars never achieved great heights under Jones, but he did guide them to six wins in three of the past five seasons. This is no small feat for a new program. Look for South Alabama to keep this one close in Jones' last game as head coach.
Troy Pick Arkansas State
The Sun Belt should have picked a different time to play this game as most will probably ignore this game in favor of the Big 10 or ACC Championship tilts which kick around the same time. These are probably the two best teams in the conference and the winner will clinch at least a share of the Sun Belt title (Appalachian State will clinch a share with a win against Louisiana-Lafayette despite not playing the Trojans or Red Wolves). Winning the Sun Belt has become old hat for the Red Wolves. Arkansas State has won outright or shared five of the last six Sun Belt titles. Troy was used to the spotlight (relatively), winning or sharing five consecutive Sun Belt titles between 2006 and 2010. However, the program grew a little stale under Larry Blakeney and Neal Brown was selected to lead the Trojans back to prominence (relatively). Brown actually had the Trojans in the lower reaches of the top-25 last season and will notch a second consecutive ten win season with a win here. Outside of a glitchy home loss to South Alabama, Troy has been dominant this season. They rank second in the Sun Belt in yards per play and first in yards allowed per play. Oh, and they also beat LSU. Arkansas State also somehow lost to South Alabama (though this one was in Mobile), and while they have been good (as usual), they have not been nearly as dominant as Troy. Arkansas State is tough in Jonesboro, but Troy has been the stronger team this season. Take the Trojans to win a close one here.
Fresno State +8.5 Boise State
Fresno State's reward for beating Boise State last week in The Valley? A rematch with the Broncos for the league championship, with this one taking place in Idaho. A win by the Bulldogs would represent a worst-to-first turnaround as they did not win a single conference game last season. New coach Jeff Tedford seems to have recaptured the magic he had at Cal a decade and a half ago when he generated a similar turnaround. At Cal, Tedford was never quite able to win a conference title (no shame in that), so a win here would have to be extra satisfying. These teams developed a decent rivalry in the old Western Athletic Conference, with Boise State taking the league by storm in the early part of this century. Fresno State snuck up on people this season after their 1-11 campaign in 2016 and tough early schedule that included trips to Tuscaloosa and Seattle. However, since that loss to the Huskies, the Bulldogs have been great. They have won eight of nine, with six wins coming by double-digits. In conference play, the Bulldogs allowed the fewest yards per play of any Mountain West team and allowed opponents just eleven offensive touchdowns in eight games. Boise State has not performed well as a home favorite under Bryan Harsin, going just 7-16-1 ATS in the role under his tutelage. This line should be closer to a field goal, so take the Bulldogs here and don't be surprised if they win outright.
Miami +10 Vs. Clemson @ Charlotte
Sometimes a devastating loss can lead to great things down the road. For Clemson, the Tigers should send Jim Grobe and Wake Forest a 'Thank You' card for getting Tommy Bowden fired after a Thursday night defensive battle in 2008. At that moment, Clemson has not won the ACC since 1991. Since canning Tommy and hiring a relative unknown in Dabo Swinney, the Tigers have won the conference three times and appeared in the championship game five times (counting this appearance) in the last nine seasons. Oh, and they also won a pretty big game last year (technically this calendar year, but you get the idea). Perhaps Miami will need to send Clemson a similar card or fruit basket soon. A little more than two years ago, Clemson decimated Miami in Coral Gables. That was the last straw for Al Golden in his efforts to revive the Hurricane program. Miami finished the year with an interim coach (winning four of their last five regular season games) and in the offseason, an accomplished coach (who also happened to be an alum) fell right into their lap. Since hiring Richt, the Hurricanes have gone 12-4 in the ACC (just 51-45 in their first twelve seasons in the ACC) and are playing in their first ever conference championship game. Of course, it hasn't been smooth sailing for the Hurricanes in 2017. They seemed to struggle with motivation in the middle part of the season, beating three teams that finished with losing records (Georgia Tech, Syracuse, and North Carolina) by a combined fourteen points. The Hurricanes seemed to focus after that three-game stretch as they waxed Virginia Tech and Notre Dame. However, their struggles with lesser teams did not abate as they looked lost against Virginia before pulling away and then suffered an upset loss at Pitt. Of course, in the grand scheme of things, the Pitt loss meant absolutely nothing. If they beat the Tigers, they will be in the College Football Playoff. I think they have a chance. Despite a lackluster scoring margin, Miami actually had the best per-play differential (+1.13) of any ACC team and boasted the conference's best defense. When Miami is motivated, they are tough to beat. They should be on Saturday night.
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