Overall: 43-39-2
SMU -8 Tulane
Regardless of the outcome of this game, SMU is headed back to a bowl for the first time since 2012. The Mustangs have increased their win total in each season under Chad Morris, rising from two wins in his first, to five in his second, and now six in his third. Morris is oft mentioned as a candidate for other coaching jobs, and he would probably make a Power Five school happy, but his accomplishments thus far do not seem to merit such a job. True, SMU was in dire straits when he was hired, but June Jones turned the program around faster than Morris, who has yet to have a winning campaign in Dallas. The problem for Morris since he arrived on campus has been the defense. The Mustangs ranked tenth in the American Athletic Conference in yards allowed per play in his first season, improved marginally, but still ranked tenth in his second season, and are currently eleventh. To illustrate this point, the Mustangs scored more than 40 points in each of their last two games, but lost both, the most recent in blowout fashion, thanks to a defense that allowed over 100 combined points. The good news for SMU is that while both of those games were on the road, this one is in the friendly confines of Gerald J. Ford Stadium. It also helps that their opponent this week, Tulane, is not nearly as proficient on offense as Navy and Memphis. The Green Wave have improved in their second season under Willie Fritz, but they still rank in the bottom half of the American in yards per play. They also struggle on defense, ranking just ahead of SMU in yards allowed per play. Tulane will have plenty to play for as a win will make them bowl eligible, but SMU has been solid under Morris as a home favorite, posting a 5-1 ATS record in the role. In addition, this spread is just north of a touchdown, and I expect SMU to do plenty of scoring with a chance to clinch a winning season. Take the Mustangs to win comfortably here.
North Carolina +17 NC State
Sometimes in college football, one game can make all the difference. Last season, NC State entered their annual clash with the Tar Heels as a ten point underdog with a 5-6 record. Had the Wolfpack lost that game, Dave Doeren may have been fired and Bill Cowher or Jon Gruden could be leading the team now. Of course, the Wolfpack pulled the upset, pounded Vanderbilt in their bowl game, and entered 2017 with reasonably high expectations. Those expectations were somewhat tempered after the opener, but the Wolfpack won six in a row after their loss to the Gamecocks, and were in contention for the Atlantic Division title. Then the season took another turn as the Wolfpack lost three of four, the most recent in heartbreaking fashion, to fall out of contention. Now the Wolfpack will have to turn their goals to a finish in the final polls and their most wins since 2010. To get there, the they will first need to handle their business against a Tar Heel team that has struggled in 2017. Prior to beating Pittsburgh two weeks ago, North Carolina's only win had come against Old Dominion. The Tar Heels can blame injury, the loss of defensive coordinator Gene Chizik, and the putrid play of transfer quarterback Brandon Harris. With Chazz Surratt or Nathan Elliott taking snaps, the Tar Heels have been more competitive recently, losing by just five to Miami, while beating Pittsburgh and Western Carolina. NC State will provide a little more resistance than the Catamounts, but the road team has been a strong play recently in this series, with the visitor winning the last four meetings outright. North Carolina is not nearly as bad as they looked in the middle of the season, and while I don't think they will pull off the massive upset, they should keep this one close.
Arizona -1 Arizona State
After combining for an 8-16 record last season (just 3-15 in Pac-12 play), the Wildcats and Sun Devils have rebounded (somewhat) in 2017. Arizona State is 6-5 with solid wins over Oregon, Utah, and Washington, while Arizona is 7-4 and appear to have found their quarterback of the future. Both teams leave a lot to be desired defensively, as they rank in the bottom half of the Pac-12 in terms of yards allowed per play. Arizona State is similarly mediocre offensively, but Arizona has torched opponents, especially on the ground. The Wildcats have rushed for over 3600 yards on the season, and lead the nation averaging a robust seven yards per carry. That is not a good matchup for Arizona State. The Sun Devils have been gashed on the ground, particularly when you remove their (impressive) 32 sacks from the equation. Once proper accounting is made for actual rushing plays, the Sun Devils permit over six yards per carry! The venue of this game will provide a significant advantage for the Sun Devils, but Arizona is the better team. I expect a close game, and I would not make any play if the line were around a field goal, but Arizona should do enough to leave with the win on Saturday afternoon.
South Carolina +14 Clemson
Clemson is on their way to the ACC Championship Game for the third consecutive season. However, if you look closely at the numbers, this Clemson teams appear to be a notch below the previous two squads. Offensively, Clemson ranks sixth in the ACC in yards per play. After torching what was a bad Louisville defense in their conference opener, Clemson has failed to average more than six yards per play against any other ACC opponent. Defensively, the Tigers are still one of the strongest teams in the ACC, ranking second in the conference in yards allowed per play. However, their offensive struggles will probably prevent them from covering this large number against their arch rivals. South Carolina ranks fourth in the SEC in yards allowed per play (behind the three uber-defenses at Alabama, Auburn, and Georgia). No team has scored more than 28 points on the Gamecocks this season, and the Gamecocks are unbeaten ATS as an underdog this season (6-0 with four outright upsets). Clemson has not beaten South Carolina by more than five points in Columbia since 2003. Remember, just two years ago, a very bad South Carolina team lost 37-32 to a Clemson team that nearly won the national title. I am extremely wary of backing Will Muschamp when his teams are giving points, but I think he will do a great job of dragging Clemson into a low-scoring defensive battle here. I don't think South Carolina will be able to pull off the outright upset and shake up the College Football Playoff, but they should cover.
Texas A&M +10.5 LSU
Two years ago there were coaching rumors swirling around this game. Les Miles was all but finished at LSU as the Tigers came in on a three-game losing streak. The Tigers were able to right the ship against the Aggies, and Miles was retained..for five more games. The game ended up being a band-aid on a bullet would as the underlying issues (lack of creativity on offense mostly) remained and LSU parted ways with the enigmatic Miles. Now Texas A&M enters amid coaching uncertainty. Despite winning at least eight games each season he has been in charge, Kevin Sumlin is squarely on the hot seat. He set the bar too high in his first season which included a Heisman winner, an upset over Alabama, and a top-five final ranking. Since then, the Aggies have finished ranked just once and have not finished with a wining conference record. The Aggies typically start off great and then stagger to the finish leaving fans with thoughts of what might have been. This year has been a little different. The Aggies opened with an epic choke job at UCLA, rebounded to win four in a row against the soft part of their schedule, and then lost in competitive fashion to Alabama. The Aggies then upset Florida in Gainesville, but lost two in a row at home to Mississippi State and Auburn to ratchet up the heat. However, since those two defeats, the Aggies have played well. They dominated New Mexico from start to finish and then won as a slight underdog at Ole Miss. With no expectations, the Aggies have played better. Most are not giving the Aggies a chance against the Tigers despite LSU's deficiencies. Remember, the Tigers struggled at home against Syracuse and lost to Troy. They have won five of six since the loss to Troy, but four of those wins have come against teams likely to finish with losing records (Florida, Ole Miss, Arkansas, and Tennessee). The Aggies are perfect this season ATS as a road underdog, with two outright wins, and catching double-digits against a flawed LSU squad makes them a valuable play.
Louisiana Tech -1.5 Texas-San Antonio
2017 has been weird and disappointing for Louisiana Tech. After playing for the Conference USA title last season and winning nine games for the third straight year, the Bulldogs enter their finale with a 5-6 mark. The Bulldogs have sought to give their fans congenital heart failure, playing four games decided by a single point. Louisiana Tech has been on the wrong side of three of those games, including one at South Carolina. Overall, the Bulldogs are just 1-4 in games decided by a touchdown or less. If the Bulldogs make a few more plays here or there, perhaps they are preparing for yet another trip to the Conference USA Championship Game. As it stands, they need to beat the Roadrunners to get to back to a bowl game for the fourth consecutive season. If you look closely at this number, it implies Texas-San Antonio would actually be favored at a neutral site. While the Roadrunners did get a quality win at home against Marshall last week, the five FBS teams they have beaten have combined for an 11-44 overall record. Louisiana Tech will be desperate and they are a solid 10-6 ATS as a home favorite under Skip Holtz. Once again, a spread of a field goal or more might scare me away, but with a number this low, the Bulldogs are the pick.
Utah State +2 Air Force
After last week's results for both teams, I expected Utah State to be a slight favorite (which would have resulted in a pass for me). The Aggies dominated a bad Hawaii team in Logan and Air Force was dominated by a surging Boise State team on the Smurf Turf. The win made Utah State bowl eligible for the sixth time in seven seasons, and ensures the Aggies will at least double last season's win total. Meanwhile, Air Force will miss out on a bowl for the first time since 2013. The Falcons have the worst per play defense in the Mountain West, permitting over seven yards per snap against league foes. Utah State ranks around the middle of the pack offensively in the Mountain West, but their defense is in the upper tier, ranking fourth in yards allowed per play. They have already contained one option offense this season, when they held New Mexico to ten points a few weeks ago. Look for more of the same here. Air Force is 0-3 ATS as a home favorite this season with two outright losses. Utah State should be favored in this game and will win outright.
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