Overall: 39-37-1
Cincinnati -3.5 East Carolina
You think maybe East Carolina is regretting their decision to fire Ruffin McNeill? Scottie Montgomery began his career in Greenville on a positive note, winning his first two games, including a home upset of NC State. However, since that 2-0 start, the Pirates are just 3-17 over their last twenty games! Against teams not located in Storrs, Connecticut, the Pirates are 1-17! Most of their losses have not been competitive, with fifteen of the seventeen coming by at least ten points. Last week's loss to Tulane was one of the few that did not come in blowout fashion. The Pirates took the Green Wave to overtime, but were outgained and averaged nearly a yard and a half less per play than Tulane. On the season, the Pirates have the worst defense in the American by far. They have allowed 45 points per game and more than seven and a half yards per play. For a Cincinnati team that has struggled moving the ball in Luke Fickell's first season, East Carolina is just what the doctor ordered. With East Carolina and Connecticut remaining on the schedule, the Bearcats have a chance to finish the year strong. East Carolina has nothing to play for here and the Noon kick will probably dilute what little homefield advantage they have. Since upsetting NC State fourteen months ago, the Pirates are just 1-5 ATS as a home underdog. Cincinnati should win easily here.
Pittsburgh +16 Virginia Tech
What more does Virginia Tech have to do to convince the nation they are not an elite team? After opening the 2017 season 7-1 with one quality win, the Hokies have lost back-to-back games to Miami and Georgia Tech. The Hokies were mostly non-competitive against Miami, and lost to Georgia Tech despite returning an interception for a touchdown and converting a third and long via a miraculous catch. Some dominant home wins against bad teams (Old Dominion, North Carolina, and Duke) by a margin of 111 points seem to be etched in the mind's of voters and oddsmakers. However, overall the Hokies have been pretty bad offensively. The Hokies rank twelfth of fourteen ACC teams in yards per play. Their running game in particular, has been nonexistent in conference play. When removing sacks from their rushing attempts, the Hokies have averaged just 3.6 yards per carry and just 144 yards per game in ACC play. If the Hokies can score on defense or special teams, they have a chance to cover this number, but that is a dangerous assumption to make. The Panthers are 8-3-1 ATS as a road underdog under Pat Narduzzi with five outright wins. The Panthers are still technically alive for a bowl game as they need to sweep their final two games to qualify, so they should be motivated. I don't know if they can pull the outright upset, but this game should be much closer than sixteen points.
Tulane +9.5 Houston
It's a long shot, but bowl eligibility is still on the table for Tulane. The Green Wave need to sweep their final two games against Houston and SMU to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2013 and just the second time since 2002. Realistically, the Green Wave should probably start making postseason plans for 2018. That will mark the third year of the Willie Fritz funky triple option regime. Tulane has improved offensively in their second year under Fritz, averaging an extra yard per play in conference games and improving their complimentary passing game. Last season, the Green Wave, despite not throwing often, averaged a putrid 5.3 yards per pass. This season, the Green Wave are averaging 7.3 yards per pass. Defensively, the Green Wave have had issues, allowing over six and half yards per play to conference foes. This has tampered down their record despite the offensive improvement. The Green Wave have played well in New Orleans, in their relatively new stadium, where they have won three of five homes games this season with both losses coming by a combined seven points. Look for more of the same here. The Green Wave probably don't have the firepower to beat Houston outright, but they should keep this one close.
Army +3 North Texas
Army and North Texas are developing quite a rivalry. This will mark the third meeting between the two teams since last October. The Mean Green won the first game in West Point and the Black Knights won the rematch in the Heart of Dallas Bowl. For the degenerates out there, the Black Knights failed to cover each time as they were double-digit favorites in both. If I had told you prior to their first meeting last October that a little more than a year later both of these teams would be a combined 15-5, you probably would have nodded politely and then not listened to another word I said. That's where we are though. The Black Knights have won six in a row after a 2-2 start and are even receiving a few votes in the latest AP Poll. Meanwhile, the Mean Green are 7-3 and have already clinched the West division of Conference USA. North Texas is led by their offense, which ranks third in Conference USA in yards per play. They are also averaging over 36 points per game, which is amazing considering just two seasons ago they averaged just a shade more than fifteen points per game and maxed out at thirty points in their lone win. Unfortunately, their defense is a little leaky. They are also allowing north of thirty points per game and only three Conference USA teams allow more yards per play. The Mean Green have also been a little fortunate, posting a 4-0 record in one-score games. A leaky defense is not something you want when facing a unique, deliberate offense like Army's. Army is 7-4-2 ATS as a road underdog under Jeff Monken and North Texas has yet to cover this season in two attempts as a home favorite. North Texas is much better in the underdog role (4-1 ATS with three outright wins) and I think it will be tough for them to get up for a non-conference game one week after clinching the division. Don't be surprised if Army wins outright.
Texas A&M +3 Ole Miss
If Texas A&M has designs on a winning regular season, they probably need to win this game in Oxford. The Aggies close with a road trip to Baton Rouge, so a loss here probably means a 6-6 regular season and perhaps a new coach. The Aggies have disappointed this season, especially considering their schedule. It is now mid-November, and the Aggies have left the state of Texas twice this season (and just once since Labor Day Weekend). Yet, they still have four losses, with three coming in College Station. This otherwise forgettable game in Oxford will be a battle between a mediocre team that doesn't really do anything well (Texas A&M) against an Ole Miss team that does one thing really well (throw the football). The Rebels, despite playing a backup quarterback for the fourth straight game, are averaging 9.3 yards per pass. Their deep stable of receivers, led by AJ Brown, are big plays waiting to happen. Unfortunately, the Landshark defense is nowhere to be found in Oxford. The Rebels are consistently gashed on the ground, allowing over six yards per rush when removing sacks from the equation. This should be an entertaining game, but I would never trust this incarnation of Ole Miss giving points against any Power Five opponent.
Wake Forest -1.5 NC State
Wake Forest is my alma mater, and I may be a little biased, but I want to take a moment to marvel at how far the Deacons have come under Dave Clawson. In Clawson's first season in charge, the Deacons won three games and averaged under fifteen points per game. In this, his fourth season, the Deacons are averaging over 35 points per game and are already bowl eligible with a chance for their most regular season wins in a decade. Quarterback John Wolford has evolved from a sack taking machine to one of the best (and most underrated) dual threat quarterbacks in the country. Wolford is averaging nearly nine yards per pass attempt and has thrown twenty touchdowns against just three interceptions in 2017. Oh, and he's also rushed for over 500 yards and ten touchdowns. He's not Khalil Tate or Lamar Jackson, but he ain't half bad. Anyway, back to the Deacons. Wake Forest was not favored against an FBS opponent in Winston-Salem until the first game of Dave Clawson's third year in charge. This will mark the seventh time in their last ten home games that they have been favored, so the oddsmakers and the betting public have come around to how good the Deacons are. I was actually hoping the Deacons would be catching a few points here, but with this line under a field goal, I think they are still a good play. In recent history, the home team usually wins in this rivalry. Wake Forest has won six of the last seven in Winston-Salem and the Wolfpack have won all but one meeting in Raleigh since 1984. Look for that home team trend to continue here in a Wake Forest win.
Air Force +17.5 Boise State
A win by Boise State would clinch their first division title since 2014 and put them in position to finish ranked. However, a New Year's Six bid is probably a pipe dream thanks to the number of ranked teams in the American Athletic Conference. The Broncos have won six in a row after a 2-2 start, with their latest win coming via a miraculous comeback against Colorado State. The Broncos channeled the New England Patriots and came back from a pair of 25-point deficits to force overtime, where they eventually prevailed and actually covered, much to the chagrin of those who wagered on the Rams. The Broncos are clearly the better team, but can they come down from that emotional high and handle a team that runs a peculiar offense? After winning 28 games over the previous three seasons, Air Force has struggled in 2017, losing to both Army and Navy for the first time since 2012 and in need of a sweep of their final two games to become bowl eligible. The Falcons have one of the worst defenses in college football, but they do a good job of hiding it with their ball-control offense that limits the number of possessions. The Falcons have been a perennial thorn in Boise State's side since the Broncos joined the Mountain West. The teams have faced off four times and the Falcons have covered each time (as a double-digit underdog) winning the last three outright. Air Force is 7-1 ATS as a road underdog since the start of the 2015 season (3-0 as a double-digit underdog) and Boise State is just 2-13-1 ATS as a home favorite in the same span. Boise State will win, but Air Force will cover.
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