Overall: 31-31-1
Northern Illinois +9 Toledo
After a disappointing 5-7 campaign in 2016 (where they still managed a winning MAC record), Northern Illinois is already bowl eligible and back in contention for another MAC title. The Huskies are unbeaten in the MAC and also own a non-conference win at Nebraska. Despite the good start, this is not a typical Huskie team. After finishing in the top-five in the MAC in terms of yards per play each season from 2009 through 2016, the Huskies have slumped to eighth this season. The Huskies do appear to have settled on a quarterback as freshman Marcus Childers has gotten the majority of the snaps in conference play. Assuming normal progression and health, Childers could be the heir apparent to Chandler Harnish and Jordan Lynch. With their (relative) offensive struggles, Northern Illinois has leaned on their defense. No team has scored more than two offensive touchdowns against the Huskies and only Buffalo, with some big pass plays, averaged more than six yards per play against them. Toledo has pounded some overmatched MAC teams over the past few weeks (beat Central Michigan, Akron, and Ball State by a combined 88 points), but the Huskies will be their most formidable conference test yet. Northern Illinois is 10-2 ATS as a road underdog under Rod Carey with six outright wins. Toledo is rightly favored in this game, but getting a leg up in the division race will not be easy.
Kansas +9 Baylor
Remember 2014? It was just three short years ago, but the world has changed dramatically. We had a competent president, John Stewart was hosting The Daily Show, and Baylor was in contention for a berth in the College Football Playoff. Now, three years later, the president is an unhinged liar, Trevor Noah is behind The Daily Show desk, and Baylor has lost eleven straight conference games. Fans in Waco have been treated to a flashback of the Kevin Steele days. Can the Bears end their skid against the Big 12's resident punching bag? Year 3 of the David Beaty era has not looked very dissimilar to Years 1 or 2. If nothing else, Kansas beat an FCS team (handily) for the second year in a row. Outside of that opener though, Kansas has been pretty ghastly to watch. The Jayhawks have lost seven straight games, with each defeat coming by double-digits. However, the Jayhawks showed a little spunk in their most recent game, losing by just ten to Kansas State while outgaining and averaging more yards per play than the Wildcats. Baylor has one of the worst defenses in college football, as they have allowed over eight yards per play to conference opponents. This is not a team you want to be laying nearly double-digits on the road with.
Georgia State -3.5 Georgia Southern
In their first two seasons as an FBS program, Georgia Southern went 18-7 and won a bowl game. However, since Willie Fritz left for Tulane, the Eagles are 5-14 and riding a seven game losing streak that got their coach fired after just eighteen games on campus. While Georgia Southern began their FBS life by achieving great success, Georgia State lost their first fifteen Sun Belt games and won just ten games in their first four seasons as an FBS program. Now the tables have turned a little as Georgia State is 4-3 with enough trash left on their schedule to get back to a bowl game for the second time in three seasons. Shawn Elliott began his coaching career in Atlanta rather inauspiciously by losing at home to an FCS school (something Georgia State has done four other times since joining FBS), but the Panthers were able to circle the wagons. Georgia State has won three true road games, giving them seven total in their nascent FBS journey. Georgia State is not very good, but they can throw the football and Georgia Southern is one of the worst (if not the worst) teams in FBS. Georgia State will win their third in a row against the Eagles by a comfortable margin.
Maryland -1 Rutgers
After this game against the Scarlet Knights, Maryland closes with a rough three-game stretch against Michigan, Michigan State, and Penn State. Even with a win against Rutgers, the Terps will need to upset one of those teams to return to the postseason for a second consecutive season. First things first though, the Terps will need to take care of a Rutgers team that has actually won two of their last three games after a sixteen game conference losing streak. Despite winning twice as many conference games in the last month as they won in the previous two years, Rutgers still ranks last in the Big 10 in both yards per play and yards allowed per play. Even playing at home (this game was originally scheduled for Yankee Stadium in the Bronx), Maryland should be laying a few more points. The Terps will win this one by a comfortable enough margin to cover this small number.
Utah State +4.5 New Mexico
Three times on this blog I have backed Utah State as a underdog (twice as a road dog). Utah State has failed to cover the number in all three games, and has not been particularly close in any. So naturally, I am on them again this week. The teams that have handily beaten Utah State have run the gamut from good to very good. New Mexico does not fit that criteria. The Lobos have been competitive since Bob Davie arrived in 2012, but they are not in the same league as Wisconsin or Boise State. Both teams already have five losses, so the loser will see their bowl hopes put in serious jeopardy, so motivation should not be an issue. New Mexico has won the last two games in this series, but those wins have come by a combined four points. In fact, the last three games in this series have been decided by a touchdown or less. Utah State has done a pretty good job against New Mexico's option attack, holding the Lobos to under four yards per carry in their four meetings since becoming conference mates. Look for more of the same here in a tight game that Utah State may win outright.
Wyoming +3 Colorado State
Presumptive first round pick Josh Allen has disappointed for the Wyoming Cowboys. After accounting for 35 touchdowns last season in their surprise run to a division title, Allen is averaging two full yards fewer per pass attempt this season and has accounted for just sixteen touchdowns. Part of the reason for the decline is the amount of skill position talent the Cowboys had to replace. Superstar running back Brian Hill was drafted by the Atlanta Falcons and Allen's top three receivers from 2016 all departed. Thankfully, for the Cowboys, their defense has picked up the slack. After finishing second to last in the Mountain West in yards allowed per play last season, the Cowboys are third in that category this season. That has allowed the Cowboys to remain in contention in the Mountain West with just a single conference loss. Colorado State also enters this game with a single conference loss, but their makeup is the exact opposite of Wyoming. The Rams are the best offense in the Mountain West, averaging a spectacular 7.68 yards per play against conference opponents. However, they also rank ninth in yards allowed per play. Those defensive issues allowed Nevada and New Mexico to hang around and resulted in their first conference loss last week to Air Force. The Rams have Boise State next week, but if they fall here, Boise will have a significant edge in the division race regardless of their game with the Rams. After a rough start to the Craig Bohl era, Wyoming is 7-3 ATS as a home underdog since 2015 with six outright wins. The Cowboys have also won eleven of their last thirteen at home and another outright win here would not surprise me.
Miami +3 Virginia Tech
Can a team be simultaneously overrated and underrated? Miami is currently ninth in the latest AP Poll. They are probably not the ninth best team in the country. However, they are three point home underdogs against Virginia Tech; a line that doesn't make a great deal of sense. Miami has won their last four games by total of just eighteen points, including their first victory against Florida State since 2009. Since that game, the Hurricanes appear to have been sleepwalking, beating Georgia Tech, Syracuse, and North Carolina, but failing to cover in each game. On a per play basis, the Hurricanes have played well, outgaining those three teams by at least a full yard per snap, but have not been able to turn that efficiency into a bigger spread on the scoreboard. I think that has duped the betting public regarding this line. Quick, what is Virginia Tech's best win? The Hokies opened with a close win against West Virginia and won at Boston College before the Eagles straightened out their offensive issues, but that's about it. The Hokies have put up solid point totals, averaging over 35 points per game, but they have four return touchdowns and were the beneficiaries of a soft non-conference slate (outside of West Virginia). In ACC play, the Hokies rank eleventh in the conference in terms of yards per play. Their defense is legit, ranking first in the ACC in yards allowed per play, but this is not an offensive juggernaut heading down to South Beach. If Miami wins this game, they can cruise to the ACC Championship game, so they should be sufficiently motivated. If Miami was any type of favorite, I would avoid this game like the plague, but catching a field goal, they are a solid play here.
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