Overall: 29-27
Michigan State -2 Northwestern
2016 seems like an eternity ago for Michigan State fans. After a lost season where the Spartans managed just a solitary Big 10 win, Mark Dantonio has already quadrupled that total and has the Spartans potentially looking at nine regular season wins. Their four conference wins have all been close (combined 22 point margin of victory), but the clutch play that eluded the Spartans last season has returned. The Spartans have won in stereotypical Big 10 fashion, with three of their wins coming with them scoring fewer than twenty points. Now they travel to Evanston seeking revenge against a Northwestern team that beat them last season. I will make one bold prediction about this game. The total will not come anywhere near the 94 points these two teams combined for last season. Michigan State has issues on offense, as has been the case since Connor Cook matriculated, but their defense is one of the best in the Big 10. In their five games against Power Five opponents, Northwestern has averaged just 20 points per game. I don't expect them to get to that number here in another ugly Michigan State win.
Appalachian State -3.5 Massachusetts
Appalachian State is a tough team to get a read on. If you just look at their record, it has been business as usual for the burgeoning Sun Belt power. The Mountaineers two losses have come to Power Five opponents (one of which is ranked pretty high) and the Mountaineers are perfect in the Sun Belt. Their 4-0 Sun Belt mark has moved their overall Sun Belt record to 24-4 since moving up (24-2 since a slow start). However, the Mountaineers have struggled against the number, particularly on the road. As double-digit road favorites, the Mountaineers eked out wins against Texas State and Idaho by a combined ten points (3-11 combined record for the Bobcats and Vandals). Those road struggles have depressed this line (probably too much). Another factor in this low spread is Massachusetts latest performance. Off a two week break, the Minutemen crushed Georgia Southern 55-20 and the winless Eagles subsequently fired their coach. Unfortunately for Massachusetts, Georgia Southern is quite possibly the worst FBS team this season. That fact appears to have escaped the oddsmakers here. Despite their road struggles this season, Appalachian State is actually 8-3 ATS as a road favorite since moving to FBS. As a small favorite (less than ten points), they are a perfect 3-0. Don't be fooled by the great performance Massachusetts put together last week. This season, they have already lost at home to luminaries Hawaii and Old Dominion. Look for Appalachian State to get their first road cover of the season.
San Jose State +14 BYU
BYU is five games away from one of the most unique accomplishments in college football history. Through eight games in 2017, the Cougars have failed to cover the spread in every one! It is still a longshot, but if BYU can pull it off, it will go down as one of the most impressive follies of all time. Most LDS BYU fans probably don't care about that statistic and are more concerned with the Cougars getting their first victory against an FBS opponent. Since a closer than expected opening win against Portland State, BYU has lost seven consecutive games while averaging just eleven points per game. There are a number of stats you can use to quantify how bad BYU is offensively, but I think this one sums it up best. Last season BYU beat Toledo 55-53 in a Friday night game that lasted so long, Mack Brown had to leave early. The Cougars scored seven offensive touchdowns in that game. In seven games against FBS opponents in 2017, the Cougars have scored eight offensive touchdowns! Last week, in their loss to East Carolina, the Cougars averaged 5.85 yards per play (a season high against FBS competition). East Carolina came into the game having allowed at least six and a half yards per play to every team they had faced including Connecticut and Temple. I've noted it several ways, but BYU's offense is probably the worst in school history. That being said, they should beat San Jose State at home. The Spartans, under first year coach Brent Brennan, play fast (eighth fastest pace), which when you have a bad team, just results in a lot of three and outs and more possessions for your bad defense to face. Maybe someone needs to explain underdog strategies to coach Brennan. Anyway, the Spartans have not beaten an FBS team this season, but have shown a little spunk recently, losing their last two games by just seventeen and eleven points respectively (their smallest margins of defeat on the year). Against almost any other team, I would not back San Jose State, but if the Spartans can find the endzone once, they should be able to cover this large number against an offensively challenged BYU team.
Iowa State +7 TCU
Prior to the season, who would have thought TCU's visit to Ames would have national implications for both participants? Matt Campbell has guided Iowa State to a 3-1 start in conference play and if the Cyclones can manage two more victories over the rest of the season, they would post their first winning Big 12 record since the great Sage Rosenfels led them to a 5-3 mark in 2000! While this game will be played in Ames, it will probably look more like games that are typically played in Iowa City. The Horned Frogs and Cyclones own the two best defenses in the Big 12, so this game may feature a final score more reminiscent of a Big 10 game. After a disappointing 6-7 season in 2016, TCU has altered their offensive approach in 2017. The Horned Frogs have run the ball more (57% of plays have been runs in 2017 versus 49% in 2016) in order to protect their erratic quarterback Kenny Hill. After throwing thirteen interceptions last season, Hill has only tossed three this year and the Horned Frogs have a +4 turnover margin in 2017 (after posting a -4 margin last season). While the Horned Frogs have been successful since joining the Big 12, they have not performed well as a road favorite. They are 6-11 ATS in the role since 2012 and just 3-9 ATS in Big 12 play. Meanwhile, Iowa State is 4-2 ATS as a home underdog under Matt Campbell. TCU may leave Ames with a victory, but this one feels like it will come down to the final drive.
Vanderbilt +7 South Carolina
As a Columbia resident, I always get a kick out of sportstalk radio. With the modest success the team has enjoyed in the second year of the Will Muschamp era, fans are making plans for an 8-4 finish to the regular season and a top-25 ranking. This is eerily similar to the last time Gamecock fans were notably bullish on their team despite mediocre numbers. South Carolina opened the year with two wins away from Williams-Brice and were set to face Kentucky as about a touchdown favorite. Reasonable callers flooded the airwaves with talks of three-touchdown victories and a return to the glories of the Steve Spurrier era. You know what happened next. Once again, a few victories have intoxicated the fanbase. The Commodores stand no chance against this mighty Gamecock team last seen putting fifteen points on the board against a Tennessee team that is the living embodiment of disarray. After facing a gauntlet of Power 5 teams, Vanderbilt needed a bye week. The Commodores faced Kansas State, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and Ole Miss in consecutive weeks, losing the last four of those games in mostly non-competitive fashion. On the surface, Vanderbilt's defensive numbers look atrocious, but keep in mind all four of their conference opponents rank in the upper half of the SEC in terms of yards per play. Yes, Jim McElwain has finally put a competent offense on the field in Gainesville just in time for his defense to regress. But I digress. South Carolina is not in that stratosphere offensively, especially considering the bad defenses they have already faced (Arkansas, Missouri, and Kentucky are three of the four poorest SEC defenses in terms of yards per play). After playing four games where they would have needed to score at least 39 to win each one, South Carolina will provide a welcome respite. The Gamecocks appear to hate scoring in the 30s and actively strive for old-school AFC Central slogs. South Carolina does have one of the better defenses in the SEC, but it is still light years behind the units in Tuscaloosa and Athens Vanderbilt has already faced. Despite their four-game losing streak, Vanderbilt still harbors significant bowl hopes, so they should be motivated here. Their next four games are against Western Kentucky, Kentucky, Missouri, and Tennessee. I'm not saying Vanderbilt will finish 8-4, but there are wins left on that schedule. Take Vanderbilt to keep this one close and potentially eke out a win in Columbia.
Utah State +8 Boise State
After a non-conference schedule that saw them blow a game they had in the bag against Washington State and get whipped at home by Virginia, Boise State has righted the ship in Mountain West play. The Broncos are 3-0 in conference play and have beaten last year's championship game participants in consecutive weeks. Still, something does not seem quite right with this Bronco team. Boise State ranks ninth in the Mountain West in yards per play and is averaging just a shade over 28 points per game, which would rank as the fewest for the team since 1997! The defense is still top notch, ranking second in the Mountain West in yards allowed per play. Of course, Utah State's defense is no slouch either. The Aggies rank third in the Mountain West in yards allowed per play and are looking for their first Mountain West home win of the year. Both teams have played a version of quarterback musical chairs thus far in 2017, with Boise State alternating Brett Rypien and Montell Cozart and the Aggies going between Kent Myers and Jordan Love. Both Aggie quarterbacks have been mistake prone, with Myers and Love combining for eleven interceptions on the year. They will need to avoid mistakes against an opportunistic Boise State defense that has intercepted eight passes of their own. Boise State is a bad investment as a favorite, going 5-13 ATS in the role since the start of the 2016 season (they are 2-0 ATS as an underdog in that span) and are over-valued after their past two games. Utah State typically yacks in close games under Matt Wells (5-13 in one possession games under his guidance) so I wouldn't bank on them winning outright, but they should keep this one close.
San Diego State -9 Hawaii
It may be hard to believe, but before November, the two-time defending Mountain West champs in San Diego are pretty much out of the running for another conference title. The Aztecs are two games behind resurgent Fresno State, and after last week's game, the Bulldogs own the head-to-head tiebreaker. San Diego State will have to console themselves with a third straight double-digit win season and a second consecutive finish in the polls. The Aztecs last four games are against Hawaii, San Jose State, Nevada, and New Mexico and they should be significant favorites in each one. Travelling to Hawaii is never easy, but San Diego State has won and covered in their last two trips to the island. The Aztecs are 8-4 ATS as a road favorite since 2014 and Hawaii is one of the worst teams in the Mountain West. The Warriors already have a home loss of thirty points on their resume this season, and a similar result would not shock me here.
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