Overall: 21-21
Eastern Michigan +6 Army
For the third game in a row, Eastern Michigan could not make the plays when they needed as they dropped a one-score game to Toledo. That result followed an overtime loss to Ohio and a close loss to Kentucky. With the MAC gauntlet starting next week, this game will go a long way toward determining whether of not the Eagles can get to a consecutive bowl games. Army is also looking for consecutive postseason appearances. A win here would give them five on the year, but the back half of their schedule is significantly tougher than the front, so a loss could derail those bowl hopes. The best team Army has beaten thus far is Buffalo, as they have beat up on the dregs of Conference USA the past two weeks. UTEP and Rice did not offer much resistance as the Black Knights rushed for more than 750 yards and ten touchdowns in those two games. While the running game has been prolific, the defense has been leaky. Buffalo averaged eight yards per play against the Black Knights, fellow option team Tulane averaged nearly seven, Rice averaged six, and even putrid UTEP had one of their best offensive showings of the year. The Army defense is just what the doctor ordered for an Eastern Michigan offense averaging just 19 points per game (and never topping 24 in any game) in 2017. The Eagles have been solid defensively in 2017, allowing just 18 points per game and under five yards per play in the early going. That is particularly impressive considering the Eagles have faced two strong MAC offenses (Ohio and Toledo) and a pair of Power Five teams (Rutgers and Kentucky). Eastern Michigan has been a solid road team under Chris Creighton, posting a 12-8-1 ATS record as a road underdog. They are an even more impressive 7-1 ATS in the role since the start of 2016. In fact, in their last four games as a single digit road underdog, the Eagles have four outright wins. Another here would not shock me.
Pittsburgh +12.5 NC State
This just seems like a game NC State is destined to lose right? After a huge home win against a top-20 Louisville team, NC State finds themselves ranked 20th in the latest AP Poll (their highest ranking since they climbed to 14th in 2003). The Wolfpack seem primed for a letdown, but let me give you a few more reasons the Panthers seem like a solid play here. For starters, Louisville's defense has crashed and burned. NC State averaged over seven yards per play against Louisville and probably should have won by a larger margin. However, outside of games against Kent State and Murray State, Louisville is allowing 6.68 yards per play! North Carolina, Clemson, and NC State all significantly exceeded their seasonal averages on offense against Louisville. I feel like the decline of Louisville's defense has not gotten a lot of press, so the NC State offense is probably a little overvalued. Another reason to fade NC State is the common opponent these two teams have faced. NC State beat Syracuse and Pitt lost to the Orange. However, the NC State game was in Raleigh and the Pitt game was in the Carrier Dome. NC State beat the Orange by eight and Pitt lost to them by three. That difference of eleven points comes close to this number, but once homefield advantage is accounted for, the difference is more than cut in half. I know extrapolating too greatly with the transitive property is folly, but this spread feels like it should be closer to a touchdown. Also keep in mind, this is NC State's second true road game. Their first was against Florida State with James Blackman making his first start for the Seminoles. Take Pitt to keep this one close.
UNLV +7.5 Air Force
I was drinking the UNLV Koolaid last weekend, as I thought they had a chance to knock off San Diego State at home. Alas, the Aztecs bounced back from a below-average showing the week before to crush the Rebels in Sin City. However, I don't think you should abandon the UNLV bandwagon just yet. Based on five games worth of data, UNLV appears to be a team that will struggle mightily against good defenses (see San Diego State and to an even greater extent, Ohio State), but will torch poor ones. If you have not checked the numbers lately, Air Force does not have a good defense. The Falcons have allowed at least six yards per play and a grand total of 132 points in their last three games. Perhaps not surprisingly, the Falcons have lost all of those games. Air Force has not gone quietly, putting up 107 points of their own in the three contests, but their defense is not to be trusted. Laying more than a touchdown in what appears to be a back and forth shootout is not the side you want to be on. Couple that with the fact that Air Force is coming off an emotional loss to Navy, and they could be prime for an outright upset. Since 2012, after facing a fellow service academy (what I think can be fairly classified as a rivalry game), the Falcons are just 2-8 ATS, including 1-4 as a favorite. Look for that trend to continue here.
Akron +14.5 Western Michigan
The spreads for Western Michigan appear to be inflated based on their spectacular performance last season. While the Broncos have adjusted to the loss of head coach PJ Fleck, quarterback Zach Terrell, and wide receiver Corey Davis, they have not been as successful against the number. Over Fleck's final three seasons in Kalamazoo, the Broncos were 24-13 ATS versus FBS foes. Thus far in 2017, the Broncos are just 2-3 ATS, but more importantly, 4-2 overall and in prime position for a fourth consecutive bowl bid. The Broncos will be looking for their twelfth consecutive MAC win against an Akron team that also enters unbeaten in MAC play. With every other MAC East team already sporting a conference loss, a win would go a long way toward setting Akron up for their first division title since 2005. The Zips are 3-3 thanks to a rough non-conference schedule that included dalliances with Penn State and Iowa State as well as a road trip against a Troy team that knocked off LSU. Of course, Western Michigan didn't exactly line up cupcakes as they opened with Southern Cal and Michigan State. Akron has played well as a road underdog against fellow mid-majors under Tommy Bowden, going 11-4 ATS in the role with four outright wins. Winning outright is probably too much to ask against Western Michigan, but I like the Zips to keep this one within a touchdown.
Navy +3.5 Memphis
Maybe its because they are a service academy. Maybe its because they run the archaic triple option. Maybe its because no one can spell their coach's name. Either way, Navy has been criminally underrated the past three seasons. Consider that in 2015, Navy won their first four and then nine of their first ten games, but did not enter the AP Poll until they were 7-1. They finished 2015 ranked 18th. Navy began 2016 3-0, and then 5-1, and then 9-2, but were only in the poll a total of three weeks. They did struggle at the end, losing their last three, so they did not finish in the final poll. Thus far in 2017, Navy is 5-0 and yet the Midshipmen barely cracked the latest AP Poll. In the past two and a half years, Navy has won five games as a betting underdog, with two of those wins coming against the Memphis Tigers. Thanks to their play and some scheduling quirks dealing with hurricanes, the Tigers have had a disjointed start in 2017. They opened with a closer than expected win against Louisiana-Monroe, saw their game with UCF postponed due to Hurricane Irma, upset UCLA in a shootout, struggled with an FCS school, were crushed by UCF in the rescheduled game, and then dropped 70 points on Connecticut. Despite the seemingly easy win against Connecticut, the Tigers allowed nearly seven yards per play to the Huskies. However, they were able to snuff out three drives by forcing turnovers (while committing none of their own) and stop a pair of fourth down attempts. Obviously forcing turnovers and stopping fourth downs will win you games, but relying on those two things is not the most reliable method moving forward. Navy's offense is as strong as ever, and their defense, outside of last week's showing against Air Force, has been solid in 2017. Look for the Midshipmen to make it three in a row against Memphis with an outright win on Saturday.
North Texas +3 Texas-San Antonio
The nation is probably not riveted with the divisional races in Conference USA, but this is a huge game. Every team in the West has at least one conference loss save North Texas, and a win by the Mean Green would give them a leg up on two of their biggest division threats (these Roadrunners and the Southern Miss Golden Eagles who were beaten by North Texas two weeks ago). North Texas has exploded on offense this season, averaging over seven yards per play in Seth Littrell's second season as head coach. In fact, despite a pair of losses to likely bowl teams SMU and Iowa, the Mean Green have averaged more yards per play than each of their first five opponents. The most amazing stat for the Mean Green is that they have already scored more points through five games (194) than they did for the entire 2015 season (182) when they went just 1-11 (the lone win was over Texas-San Antonio for what its worth). The Roadrunners have also shown improvement in their second season under a new coaching regime. Frank Wilson led the Roadrunners to their first bowl game in 2016 and despite missing a game due to Hurricane Harvey, a second bowl game seems assured. The Roadrunners pulled off the biggest win in school history in their opener when they upset Baylor in Waco. Of course, the Bears have not won a game this season, which is a common refrain for the three teams the Roadrunners have beaten. Baylor, Southern (FCS), and Texas State have combined for exactly zero FBS wins in 2017. Hard to see how oddsmakers made them a road favorite here. In addition, the team that beat the Roadrunners last week (in San Antonio no less), Southern Miss, lost to North Texas the previous week. The wrong team is favored here. I would feel comfortable backing the Mean Green even if this line were reversed.
Arizona -1 UCLA
This Pac-12 After Dark battle in Tucson will be an interesting clash between a pair of coaches with a lot in common. Both Jim Mora Jr. and Rich Rodriguez are in their sixth season at their respective schools and have guided their squads to division titles (Mora in 2012 and Rodriguez in 2014), but are coming off disappointing performances in 2016. After winning at least seven games in each of their first eight combined seasons, both teams managed seven wins as a duo last season. However, both seem to have improved and sport matching 3-2 records in 2017. They have even achieved those records in a similar fashion. Both teams lost to mid-major Group of Five teams in the non-conference, opened conference play with a loss, and beat Colorado for their first conference win. Arizona seems to have found their quarterback to lead them back to the postseason as Khalil Tate set the quarterback rushing record last week with over 300 yards on the ground. He also threw for 142 yards on just 12 pass attempts. Despite those heroics, Arizona only won by three points thanks to a defense that allowed 42 points and 300 yards rushing to Colorado. UCLA also has a pretty good quarterback. Josh Rosen, a likely early NFL entrant, has thrown for over 2000 yards and 17 touchdowns through five games. Unfortunately, the Bruins have not been as prolific on the other side of the ball. The Bruins have allowed nearly 40 points and 284 rushing yards per game this season. Every team save Memphis has torched the Bruins on the ground and that plays right to Arizona's strengths. With the Wildcats playing at home and this spread sitting under a field goal, they are the play here. This should be one of the more entertaining games on Saturday with about a five hour run time and very few defensive stops.
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