Overall: 17-18
Eastern Michigan +13.5 Toledo
A few weeks after earning their first ever victory against a Power Five opponent (in name only), Eastern Michigan nearly got their second against Kentucky. The loss dropped the Eagles to 2-2, but the progress they have made under Chris Creighton is undeniable. Consider this: From 2008 through 2015, Eastern Michigan won six road games. Since the beginning of 2016, the Eagles have won five road games. To qualify for a second consecutive bowl game, and the third in school history, the Eagles will need to continue to be road warriors as five of their last eight games are away from Ypsilanti. The first of those contests comes against a Toledo team looking to win its first MAC championship since 2004. The Rockets have finished with at least six MAC wins six times over the past seven seasons, but have not been able to advance to the MAC Championship Game. Northern Illinois and Western Michigan have foiled their efforts. Thus far in 2017, Toledo has not been all that impressive. Ignoring their season opening win against FCS Elon, the Rockets have struggled putting away a winless Nevada team, needed a last second field goal to beat a Tulsa team with just a single win, and been moderately competitive for a three quarters against Miami. Nothing they have done thus far gives me the notion they will be able to beat a solid Eastern Michigan team by two touchdowns. The Eagles are 9-4 ATS as a road underdog since 2015 and I expect that trend to continue here.
Virginia -2.5 Duke
The most impressive aspect of Virginia's surprising win against Boise State two Fridays ago was not the fact that they won, but the fact that they rolled up 42 points and 440 yards against a heretofore stout Bronco defense. While Washington State did drop 47 points and 455 yards on the Broncos a few weeks prior, there were a few differences. That game was in Pullman, not Boise, it lasted three overtimes, and the Cougars had two defensive scores. Yards per play tells a much clearer picture. Washington State averaged just 4.8 yards per play against the Broncos while Virginia averaged 6.4. It marked just the third time the Broncos had allowed over six yards per play at home since 2012! Senior quarterback Kurt Benkert is doing his best Matt Schaub impression for the Cavaliers. With three wins in non-conference play the Cavaliers have a shot at their first bowl bid since 2011. Fresh off a bye, they host an improved Duke team in a perfect letdown spot. Last week, the Blue Devils were unbeaten and hosting a top-15 Miami team. The Blue Devils were game, but the Hurricanes pulled away in the second half and won 31-6. Off that tough game and their rivalry game against North Carolina the previous week with Florida State on deck (in Durham), this spread seems way too low. Take Virginia to win easily here.
Purdue -3.5 Minnesota
Its early, and I may be speaking too soon, but it looks like Jeff Brohm will have the Boilermakers back in the postseason faster than most initially thought. After winning just three games against Power Five opponents in four seasons under Darrell Hazell, the Boilermakers already have one such win in 2017. And that one win came by more points (32) than the combined margin of their three wins under Hazell (24). Unfortunately, thanks to a difficult early schedule that featured a pair of top-20 teams, the Boilermakers are just 2-2 a third of the way through the season. Purdue was very competitive against Louisville in the opener, losing by just seven and hung around with Michigan for the better part of three quarters. The good news for Purdue is that they will not face a defense as stout a Michigan's over the remainder of the season or a quarterback as talented as Lamar Jackson. And that might be bad news for Minnesota. Against the three teams without an elite defense, Purdue has averaged 36 points and 460 yards per game. Minnesota has a solid defense, so they may not get to those averages, but playing at home as a slight favorite, Purdue should be a solid play. Plus, Jeff Brohm's teams have a good track record as a home favorite. In his three seasons at Western Kentucky and early start at Purdue, his teams are 12-5 ATS in the role. Look for that trend to continue here with Purdue earning their first conference win of the season.
Miami -3.5 Florida State
I'll admit, taking Miami here makes me a bit uneasy. The Hurricanes have lost seven straight to the Seminoles, including a pair of games (2010 and 2016) where they entered as the favorite. Overall, four of the games, and the last three in a row have been decided by five points or less. However, as an alum of Wake Forest, I watched all of last week's Florida State game with great interest. While the Seminoles were able to pull one out in Winston-Salem, they needed to catch a few breaks. The Demon Deacons averaged a yard more per play than the Seminoles, but lost the turnover battle and allowed a backbreaking kickoff return. One turnover was deep in their own territory and directly led to a Florida State field goal, while the other was in Florida State territory and snuffed out a potential scoring drive. The kickoff return came when Wake Forest had just moved out to a nine-point lead and while the kickoff itself did not result in a touchdown, it put a heretofore anemic Florida State offense in prime position to score one. Everyone knows Florida State is now guided by a freshman quarterback, but I think the bigger issue for the offense is the line. Wake Forest sacked James Blackman five times, and while the Deacons have a better defense than most probably believe, Miami probably has better pass rushers. This Miami team also seems cut from a different sort of cloth than the recent vintage. With the Florida State game on deck, Miami headed to Duke last Friday night and soundly defeated a quality Blue Devil team. The win made the Hurricanes 5-1 ATS as a road favorite under Mark Richt, as they have proven to be a reliable team away from home. Florida State's history as a home underdog under Jimbo Fisher is a short one, so there is not much to be gleamed there. The Seminoles lost, but covered as a home dog to Clemson last year and lost and failed to cover as a home dog to Oklahoma in 2011. I think this is the year Miami finally exorcises their Seminoles demons.
Coastal Carolina +2 Georgia State
In their last game, Georgia State won at Charlotte. That win gave the Panthers five road wins as an FBS program. Depending on when you got the game, it also marked the first time they were ever a road favorite. Can the Panthers win two in a row on the road? While they were ultimately able to get the job done against a bad Charlotte team, the final score of 28-0 was misleading. The Panthers only averaged about half a yard more per play than the 49ers, but won the turnover battle 3-0, stopped the 49ers on a pair of fourth down conversions, and scored a touchdown when Charlotte blocked their field goal. Those three things are all solid contributors to victory, but not something to be relied on going forward (especially the score off the blocked field goal). After dispatching Charlotte, the Panthers will attempt to defeat another FBS newbie in Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers have been a little disappointing in their maiden FBS voyage. After opening with a victory against Massachusetts, they have dropped three in a row, including an embarrassing loss to the Leathernecks of Western Illinois two weeks ago. The FCS Leathernecks rolled up over 500 yards, averaged nearly nine yards per play, and scored 52 points against Coastal in Conway! The Chants rebounded in a solid effort against Louisiana-Monroe last week, where a fumble return on the game's final play made the score a little more lopsided than it actually was. Outside of the Western Illinois game, Coastal's defense has been decent (by Sun Belt standards), so we'll chalk that one up to FBS growing pains. Georgia State is not a dynamic offense (they have scored 38 points through three games), so there is no way I can back them as a road favorite. Take Coastal to win outright.
SMU +6.5 Houston
This is a revenge spot for the Cougars, who were embarrassed by SMU last season. However, I think SMU is a solid play as Houston has not impressed thus far in 2017. Outside of a beatdown of overmatched Rice, Houston has failed to score more than 24 points against Arizona, Texas Tech, or Temple. Two of those are Power Five teams, but neither is known for their defensive acumen. The Cougars did manage to win two of those three games, so they have played good defense, but the Cougars obviously miss the talents of the departed Greg Ward Jr. SMU is on the other end of the spectrum, as the Mustangs have scored at least 36 points in every game en route to averaging 48 per contest, but are also allowing over 30 points per game. Defensively, the Mustangs seem to either make or allow a big play. They have 21 sacks on the season (good for third nationally in sacks per game), but have allowed over nine yards per pass (remember the NCAA accounting method is faulty as sacks are counted as rushing yards). Houston has only allowed four sacks all season, so this will be an interesting battle. Houston will probably get over some of their offensive ills in this game as I expect a shootout. However, asking them to lay nearly a touchdown against a dynamic SMU offense is too much.
UNLV +11 San Diego State
The Mountain West is in an interesting spot at the moment. San Diego State is currently the second highest ranked Group of Five school (albeit in the AP Poll which doesn't really count for anything), just one spot behind South Florida. The Aztecs have beaten a pair of Pac-12 schools (Arizona State and Stanford) and own a solid win against Northern Illinois. However, the Aztecs may not even be the best team in the conference. According to Bill Connelly's win expectancy numbers, San Diego State should have lost each of their last four games (the previously mentioned trio and Air Force), yet the Aztecs came out on the right side of the scoreboard. That tightrope will be hard to walk for the rest of the season. Of course, the there are no more Power Five teams on the schedule, but Boise State does visit sunny San Diego next week, and the Aztecs could have to face the Broncos or a team like Colorado State in the Mountain West Championship Game. With the game against Boise looming, the Aztecs travel to Sin City to face a team that has coalesced since their shocking upset loss to Howard. Against teams not named 'Ohio State', the Rebels have put up at least 40 points, rushed for at least 300 yards, and averaged at least eight yards per play in every game. San Diego State always has a good defense under Rocky Long, but UNLV will be able to scratch out their share of yards and points. San Diego State should be able to run the ball effectively, with Rashaad Penny likely going over 1000 yards on the season (needs 177 to reach the mark), but I expect a competitive shootout so pop a 5-Hour Energy and stay up for this one.
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