Overall: 35-34-1
Nebraska +2.5 Minnesota
These teams may have identical 4-5 records, but their coaching situations could not be more different. Minnesota is still in the honeymoon phase with their new coach, PJ Fleck. While the Gophers have regressed from their 9-4 record last season, Minnesota fans believe the future is bright under Fleck who also struggled in his first season at Western Michigan before gradually building the Broncos into a MAC power. Meanwhile, Nebraska seems poised to fire Mike Riley at any moment and have their sights set on a former quarterback from their glory years to lead the team. This noontime battle in Minneapolis will serve as a postseason eliminator of sorts. Nebraska closes with Penn State and Iowa, so even with a win the Huskers may not be long for a bowl game. Minnesota finishes with Northwestern and Wisconsin, so a win here may not be enough to get them into the postseason either. In BIg 10 play, Nebraska has done well away from Lincoln, winning both their road games, including an upset of Purdue two weeks ago. Despite the struggles of transfer quarterback Tanner Lee, the Cornhuskers have one of the better offenses in the Big 10 this side of Columbus and State College. The Gophers, on the other hand, have the worst offense in the Big 10 on a per play basis. After averaging 33 points per game in non-conference action, the Gophers have not scored more than 27 points in any conference game, and have been held below twenty points three times. Quarterback play has been extremely scattershot with Conor Rhoda and Demry Croft combining to complete just 42% of their passes in conference games! Neither team has a whole lot going for them in 2017, but Nebraska is the better team and should not be catching points against Minnesota regardless of the game's location.
Georgia Tech +3 Virginia Tech
This game is vital to Georgia Tech's bowl hopes. At 4-4, with a game remaining against Georgia, the Yellow Jackets are staring down at least five regular season losses. They may end up benefiting from the cancellation of their game against Central Florida in Orlando. The Knights appear to be the best mid-major in the nation (regardless of the lack of respect the College Football Selection Committee shows them) and probably would have already tagged Georgia Tech with a fifth loss. As it stands, many are down on the Ramblin' Wreck after they have lost two straight and three of four. However, two of those losses came to the two best teams in the ACC (Clemson and Miami) on the road. The other came last week at Scott Stadium, a place the Yellow Jackets have historically struggled. Since beating Virginia there when they were number one in the nation in 1990 (yes, Virginia really was ranked number one that season), the Yellow Jackets have lost eleven of the thirteen games they have played there with seven of the eleven defeats coming by a touchdown or less. Now the Yellow Jackets return to Bobby Dodd Stadium where they are unbeaten this season. They host a Virginia Tech team that is probably getting a little too much love from the College Football Selection Committee. While Central Florida is 18th in the latest rankings despite dominating a somewhat weak schedule, Virginia Tech is 17th thanks to victories against...West Virginia? Oh, and Boston College before they were good. Virginia Tech has one of the best defenses in the ACC, but their offense has struggled in 2017. In addition, the Hokies are just 2-5 ATS as a road favorite under Justin Fuente. Look for Georgia Tech to get back on track against the Hokies in a low-scoring defensive affair.
Wake Forest +1 Syracuse
Despite a loss at Notre Dame last weekend, Wake Forest has a chance to do something extraordinary in 2017. Through nine games, the Deacons have a mediocre 5-4 record, but they are averaging 31.9 points per game. Wake Forest has never averaged more than thirty points per game in their illustrious history. The closest they came was 1986 when they averaged 29.5 points per game. However, that schedule included a pair of games against FCS competition. If the Deacons can maintain their scoring streak over the season's final quarter (and in their potential bowl game), it would be historic. Wake should have a chance to eclipse thirty against Syracuse as the Orange not only have the second worst per play defense in the ACC, their games also feature the sixteenth most possessions in the nation. While Syracuse plays fast, they are not necessarily that efficient or effective on offense, ranking just ninth in the ACC in yards per play. They do own one of the best wins on the year with their Friday night ambush of Clemson a few weeks ago. However, after a similar win last season, when they shocked Virginia Tech in the Carrier Dome, the Orange dropped four of their final five games en route to a 4-8 record. This season, after the Clemson win, the Orange have dropped two in a row and need to win two of their final three to get to a bowl game. The Orange seem to get up for home games against high-quality teams, but they are just 4-5 at home against FBS opponents under Dino Babers including a loss to Middle Tennessee State earlier this season. Wake Forest has been a dangerous road dog under Dave Clawson, posting a 9-4 ATS mark in the role since 2015 with three outright wins. The wrong team is favored here. Look for Wake Forest to leave upstate New York with a win.
Iowa +12 Wisconsin
Normally, I'm not a huge fan of taking teams the week after a big victory. And victories don't come any bigger than the one Iowa posted last week. The Hawkeyes pounded Ohio State and gave Urban Meyer his worst loss as a head coach. Obviously, the Hawkeyes performance was about as far right on the Bell Curve as possible, so some natural regression is to be expected. Plus, the Hawkeyes won't have the mystique of Kinnick Stadium to help them here. Instead they must travel to Camp Randall Stadium, a place where the Badgers have lost just once since the start of the 2016 season. Still, this line does not seem to be artificially lowered after Iowa's shocking upset last week. After Iowa stomped Ohio State, I was expecting this line to be around a touchdown, which would have resulted in a hard 'pass' from me. Instead, their most recent game does not seem to have impacted this line at all. In addition, the Badgers will be without their leading receiver for this game as Quintez Cephus has been ruled out. That is another factor that does not appear to be built into this line. Even though Iowa enters this game with three losses, all their defeats have been close. Penn State beat them on a touchdown at the gun, Michigan State beat them by seven, and Northwestern beat them in overtime. Iowa won't be dropping double-nickels on the Badgers, but I expect this game to be close as the Hawkeyes give Wisconsin their biggest test of the season.
Arkansas State -11.5 South Alabama
I don't know this for a fact, but it sure seems like Blake Anderson treats Arkansas State's non-conference schedule like the NFL preseason. Since becoming the head coach in 2014, the Red Wolves are just 4-11 in regular season non-conference games (1-10 versus FBS opponents). However, once Sun Belt play starts, Anderson has ironed out all the kinks. The Red Wolves are 24-4 against Sun Belt opponents under Anderson and have won twenty of their last twenty one conference games. If the Red Wolves can continue their winning ways in November, their December 2nd showdown with Troy could be a de facto Sun Belt Championship Game. First things first though, the Red Wolves need to take care of business against a South Alabama team that has already beaten Troy this season. South Alabama has struggled to score in 2017, being held below twenty points in three of their five Sun Belt games, and only topping thirty against the league's worst defense (Louisiana-Monroe). Arkansas State has been balanced on both offense and defense, ranking fourth in the Sun Belt in yards per play and second in yards allowed per play. The Red Wolves excel at pressuring the quarterback, having accumulated 26 sacks in just seven games! Backing double-digit road favorites always leaves me feeling a bit queasy, but the Red Wolves are 6-2 ATS as a road favorite since the start of the 2015 season and South Alabama is not an especially dangerous home team (just 5-6 ATS as a home dog since joining the Sun Belt). Arkansas State has had a week off to prepare for their four-game stretch run, and I think they will start it off with a blowout of the Jaguars.
Wyoming +3 Air Force
After an out of nowhere division title last season, Wyoming began 2017 rather inauspiciously, losing in non-competitive fashion to Iowa and Oregon sandwiched around a win against Gardner Webb. However, since that 1-2 start, the Cowboys have won five of six with their lone loss coming at Boise State. The Cowboys are totally different from the team they fielded last season that relied on outscoring opponents. Last season, Wyoming lost two games where they scored more than thirty points and lost every game where they scored fewer than thirty points. This season, the Cowboys have won four times when scoring under thirty points, including last week's 16-13 win in the snow against Colorado State. The new, defensively sound Cowboys play a style of football that tends to travel better than one built solely around offensive escapades. However, despite their offensive struggles in 2017, Wyoming has a chance to post solid numbers against one of the worst defenses in FBS. Thanks to their ground-oriented option offense, Air Force limits the number of possessions in their games, but the Falcons still rank 100th nationally in scoring defense and have allowed nearly seven yards per play on the season (over seven and half in conference play). Every team Air Force has faced with the exception of VMI has averaged over four and a half yards per carry against the Falcons and their last seven opponents have all averaged at least six yards per carry (cumulative average of 7.59 yards per rush!). The Wyoming running game, which has struggled mightily in 2017, should find some holes and put quarterback Josh Allen in favorable situations. The wrong team appears to be favored here. Take the Cowboys to cover and win this one outright.
Boise State -6 Colorado State
Before the season started, Colorado State fans probably had this game circled on their calendars. The Rams, with a dynamic offense and a some nice returning playmakers would be hosting the resident conference overlord with a chance to end their reign (I know Boise has not even won their division the last two years, but they are the perceived dominant program in the conference). The conference season started well enough after a somewhat disappointing non-conference campaign that saw the Rams lose their third straight to in-state rival Colorado. The Rams won their first four conference games while averaging a healthy 37 points per game. However, some signs of weakness began to show in that stretch. The Rams allowed over 25 points per game and only beat Nevada and New Mexico by a combined five points. Their defense would betray them completely in their fifth game, when they allowed 45 points on just eight drives against Air Force. Humbled by the Falcons, the defense played perhaps its best game of the season, but the offense could produce only one touchdown against Wyoming. Those two defeats have basically eliminated Colorado State from contention for the division title. Even if they upset the Broncos, they would still need Boise State to lose another game and they would also need Wyoming to drop two additional games. Motivation, or lack thereof, after the disappointment of the previous two weeks could certainly play a role here. For Boise State, one bad quarter against Washington State and one bad game against Virginia, made the nation at-large forget about the Broncos. However, since that home loss to the Cavaliers, Boise State has won five in a row with each victory coming by at least ten points. Two of those wins were against last season's Mountain West Championship Game participants. The Broncos have the second best defense in the conference in terms of yards per play, and their offense has steadily improved as the year has gone on. The Broncos have a chance to tighten their stranglehold on the Mountain division with a win here and they have performed well in the role of a road favorite under Bryan Harsin, going 13-6 ATS with him at the helm. Look for the Broncos to win this one by at least a touchdown.
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