The Magnificent Seven: Week I

We finally made it. College football is back. Another long offseason is in the books and now we get to kick back and enjoy the spoils of the world's greatest sport. For new readers, this weekly post will outline the seven games I deem as the best options for you to wager your hard earned money on. Last year, I hit on a personal best 55%, so we will try to keep the correct picks flowing. However, as Rod Serling once said this is 'not a prediction of what is to be, just a projection of what could be.' As always, home teams in BOLD.

UCLA +3 Cincinnati
Chip Kelly's first season in Los Angeles felt a lot like his first and only season in San Francisco. The Bruins went just 3-9, which marked their worst record since 1971. However, after a brutal start to the season, the Bruins were competitive over the second half. They won three of their final seven games and the offense was much more prolific. In their first five games, the offense averaged just north of 18 points per game and did not top 24 points in any contest. Over their final seven games, the Bruins averaged an even 29 points per game and scored more than 30 points four times. The defense was still problematic in the second half, but Kelly's offensive system appeared to take a foothold. The Bruins will look to build on that second half improvement against an upstart Cincinnati team coming of their best season since 2009 and their first ranked finish since 2011. Despite the success, it feels like Cincinnati might have arrived a bit too soon in 2018. After all, they did improve their regular season win total by six games in Luke Fickell's second year. I looked at all Group of Five teams that saw their regular season win total increase by at least five wins over the past five years. Eleven other teams fit that description. Those eleven teams appeared to be over-valued by the betting market the next season. They combined for a 36-38-3 ATS mark as favorites the next season. On the surface, there does not appear to be a lot of value in going against those rapidly improving Group of Five teams. However, if we take out the outliers, the numbers are much more damning. UCF improved by at least five games in two consecutive years, going from 0-12 in 2015 to 6-6 in 2016 to 11-0 in 2017. Their record as a favorite ATS in those two follow up seasons was 15-5-1. Once we drop them, the ATS mark of rapidly improving teams drops to a much less impressive 21-33-2. I think Cincinnati is in good hands under Fickell, but I think the market has over-corrected in regards to their power rating. In addition, keep in mind that although UCLA is heading east, this game is a night kickoff. Were this a Noon kick on Saturday, I would avoid it like the plague, but I don't expect the Bruins to take a quarter to wake up. Finally, I'll leave you with this nugget. The last time UCLA was as bad as they were last season (also under a first year coach), they responded by winning eight games the next season.

Rutgers -15 Massachusetts
I never saw the movie Dead Man Walking (no doubt it was a zombie flick with over the top violence), but that title could very well describe Rutgers coach Chris Ash. Ash enters his fourth season at the State College of New Jersey with a 7-29 overall record, including a 3-24 Big 10 mark. With a projected win total of just 2.5 at most sports books, Ash will likely be replaced at season's end, if not before. Despite the pessimism surrounding the program, for one weekend at least, the Scarlet Knights might have something to feel good about. Under Ash, Rutgers has been favored against an FBS opponent just three previous times. For what its worth, they did lose one of those games outright, but they covered the other two, including their only other turn as a double-digit favorite in the 2018 opener. For a team to be a double-digit underdog to Rutgers, they have to be pretty bad, and the Minutemen of Massachusetts have been one of the worst teams in the country since they made their return to FBS in 2012. In that span, they are just 18-66 overall, and while they were more competitive (especially on offense) under former coach Mark Whipple, he never managed to win more than four games in any season. Not only do the Minutemen lose Whipple, they also lose both quarterbacks that saw significant action over the past three seasons, and the nation's leading receiver from 2018. The Minutemen averaged over 30 points per game the past two seasons, but with all the changes on offense, that number may be cut in half in 2019. In addition, the Minutemen have allowed at least 30 points per game in every season since 2012, including nearly 43 points per game last season! The defense is unlikely to see significant improvement and the offense seems certain to regress. Couple those two factors together and Massachusetts might be the worst FBS team in 2019. Rutgers will not have many opportunities to feel good about themselves in 2019, so they will probably relish the chance to look like an actual Power Five opponent in their opener. Rutgers should roll here before reality sets in the following week against Iowa.

East Carolina +17 NC State
This pick is a vote of confidence in East Carolina. I think the Pirates hit a homerun in the coaching carousel (mixed metaphors?) by hiring Mike Houston. Of course, I don't expect Houston to be their head coach three years from now. Houston has steadily climbed the coaching ladder from Division II (Lenoir-Rhyne) to FCS (The Citadel) to FCS power (James Madison) winning at each destination. Despite just nine victories over the past three seasons, East Carolina does have some interesting pieces, especially on offense. Quarterback Holton Ahlers needs to improve his completion percentage (just over 48% last year), but he threw for nearly 1800 yards and added nearly 600 yards on the ground. Meanwhile, for NC State, the Wolfpack will be replacing a three-year starter at quarterback as well as their offensive coordinator, who is now the head coach at Appalachian State. Despite eighteen wins over the past two seasons, it seems like NC State did not fully capitalize on the power vacuum (outside of Clemson of course) in the ACC. The Wolfpack lost three games as a favorite over the past two seasons, including one where they outgained their opponent by over 250 yards and another where they entered as a nearly three-touchdown favorite. One thing the Wolfpack were able to do was embarrass a lame duck East Carolina team last season. The Pirates had fired Scottie Montgomery and were led by an interim coach when they traveled to Raleigh for a rescheduled game on the first weekend of December last season. East Carolina has had all offseason to reflect on that beating and I think that extra motivation will serve them well here. In addition, Mike Houston has experience coaching against NC State in Raleigh. Last season, James Madison gave the Wolfpack a game in the season opener. Expected improvement at East Carolina, the revenge angle, and the rebuild of the NC State offense make the Pirates the play here. 

Toledo +12 Kentucky
Post-Bear Bryant, 2018 was the pinnacle of Kentucky football. The Wildcats won ten games for the first time since 1977 and finished the season in the final AP Poll for the first time since 1984. Its hard to win, especially consistently at Kentucky, so Mark Stoops deserves a great deal of credit for getting the Wildcats to three straight bowl games. However, a return to typical Kentucky form is probably in store for the team in 2019. For example, the Wildcats followed up their 1977 and 1984 campaigns with 4-6-1 and 5-6 records respectively. With a season win total of six or six and a half depending on the shop, oddsmakers have set bowl eligibility as the baseline. Considering the state of the program when Stoops was hired, that is progress. Despite their success in 2018, the Wildcats did not win bettors a lot of money as a favorite. Against FBS opponents, the Wildcats were 2-4 ATS as a favorite and 4-2 ATS as an underdog. That is not a new trend, especially against what would typically be thought of as over-matched opponents. Since 2014, the Wildcats are just 3-6 ATS as a home favorite against Group of Five opponents. In fact, the only time they have covered as a home favorite over the past two seasons was against South Carolina last year (spread had dipped to pick 'em by kickoff). With major attrition on defense, laying double-digits with the Wildcats is a mistake. I know I haven't said a great deal about Toledo in this write-up, and while the Rockets did suffer through a relatively down season in 2018, they have been one of the most consistent MAC programs over the past decade. I expect them to rebound in 2019, and with a relatively easy schedule the rest of the way, a victory here could make the Rockets a darkhorse contender for a New Year's Six Bowl. I am not prepared to go out on that limb just yet, but they will keep this one close.

Ole Miss +6 Memphis
When I was initially perusing the lines for the first week of college football I figured this would be a pass for me. I like Memphis a lot this season. I think they could go undefeated, win the AAC, and represent the Group of Five in a New Year's Six Bowl. However, I have no interest in laying nearly a touchdown against an SEC opponent. Then I dove into the numbers. Peep the times since 2005 an SEC team has been an underdog to a non-BCS or G5 opponent (and yes, BYU is considered a G5 because they are). Note this table does not include the three times it has happened in bowl games where SEC teams are 3-0 ATS with two outright wins.

Before I comment on the aggregate results, I wanted to mention the oddest game on here. Somehow in 2006, a UAB team that would finish 3-9 was a double-digit favorite over Mississippi State. Wild. Anyway, SEC teams were 12-3 ATS as an underdog to a mid-major opponent and 9-6 straight up! In true road games, SEC teams were 8-1 ATS and 7-2 straight up! With a trend like this, its hard not to like Ole Miss here. I know the Rebels lost some big time receivers from last year's team, as well as their starting quarterback, but Matt Luke made two good coordinator hires and with a bowl bid now on the table, the team should be extra motivated. Plus, while the Rebels have lost by more than a touchdown nine times in two seasons under Luke, six of those defeats have come to teams that finished in the top-twenty of the final polls. Elite teams have pounded the Rebels, but they have been quite competitive against the proletariat of college football. Like I said earlier, I think Memphis could have a special season in 2019. In fact, if they win here, they will probably be 9-0 when they head to Houston in mid-November. However, this feels like a game where they will get all they can handle from Ole Miss.

Northwestern +6.5 Stanford
Obviously, wagering on football is a type of gambling, so nothing is a sure thing. However, one of the surest things over the last five years or so has been Northwestern catching points on the road. Northwestern alum and linebacker Pat Fitzgerald has been the head coach in Evanston since 2006. Here is how the Wildcats have performed ATS as road underdogs under his guidance.

30-15 is quite impressive, especially when you consider the Wildcats have pulled 23 outright upsets, meaning they are actually 23-22 straight up as a road underdog under Fitzgerald. Those numbers are even more impressive over the last half decade. Since 2014, the Wildcats are 14-3 ATS as a road underdog with twelve outright upsets. In fact, the Wildcats have covered ten straight games as a road underdog with their last non-cover coming against Michigan in 2015. Despite the cross-country road trip, the Wildcats should continue to provide good value as a road underdog. Since this is the opener, the Wildcats have more travel time to get adjusted to the west coast time zone. In addition, the game is kicking off at a decent hour (one local time), so the Wildcats shouldn't have to worry about their players taking shots of expresso or NoDoz on the sidelines. As for Stanford, while the Cardinal have been a consistent top-25 program over the past decade, they do lose a lot of talent from last year's team. Bryce Love, despite his injury plagued 2018 campaign, was a big play waiting to happen as was jump ball specialist JJ Arcega-Whiteside. Overall, Stanford ranks just 108th in returning production. While I expect those replacements to be productive eventually, asking them to contribute immediately against a feisty underdog like Northwestern seems like a recipe for losing money.

Michigan -33 Middle Tennessee State
Anyone who has ever read this blog or talked point spreads with me knows I hate laying a lot of points. This can occasionally be to my detriment as a talk myself into a big underdog that has no chance of covering. Despite laying nearly five touchdowns, I think this line is severely underestimating the final margin of this game. Allow me to explain. After attempting to dominate the Big 10 with 'bully ball', Jim Harbaugh changed course and hired Josh Gattis as offensive coordinator in the offseason. Gattis will always hold a special place in my heart as he was a key contributor to the 2006 ACC championship team. After a brief stint in the NFL, Gattis went into coaching. He was with James Franklin when he pulled off a miraculous turnaround in Nashville and followed Franklin to Penn State where he learned under Joe Moorhead. His final stop before coming to Michigan was Alabama, where as co-offensive coordinator, he helped lead arguably the best offense in Alabama history. Suffice to say, the Michigan offense should play faster and look more modern in 2019. Since this is the opener and not a random game sandwiched between Big 10 play, Michigan should be fired up and will likely keep their foot on the accelerator. Keep in mind the Wolverines are on a two game skid, having lost to Ohio State and Florida by a combined 103-54 score so they will be in the mood for a win. The Blue Raiders are being paid to be a punching bag, and that is likely what they will be here. This game means next to nothing to the Blue Raiders who will be replacing their all-time leading passer in Brent Stockstill. While it only seemed like Stockstill had been around Murfreesboro for as long as his father, his 106 career passing touchdowns will be missed. His replacement will have the less than enviable task of making his first career start in the Big House. However, as I noted, the first month of the season is an opportunity for Middle Tennessee State to set their roster for conference play. The Blue Raiders also play Duke and Iowa before beginning conference play in October when they host Marshall. While it would be tremendous for the program to upset one of those Power Five teams, the Blue Raiders know their season will be determined by how well they do in Conference USA. I'm not saying the Blue Raiders will throw this game in Ann Arbor, but I doubt they pull out all the stops to keep it close either. This will be a learning opportunity for Rick Stockstill to see what he has before conference play begins. Call it a curb-stomping, ass-cutting, or some other hyphenated metaphor, but I think this one gets out of hand early and stays that way.