The Magnificent Seven: Week II

Last week was bad. And then Stanford made it a lot worse. But hey, bad beats happen. That's why its called 'gambling'. The good news is it happened in Week One, so we have all season to rebound. Here's hoping it starts on Saturday (actually Friday). As always, home teams in BOLD.

Last Week: 2-5
Overall: 2-5

Wake Forest -19 Rice
This might be the first time I have ever taken a double-digit, much less three score, favorite to win on the road. But hear me out. Rice could not have asked for a more diverse set of opponents in their first two games in terms of both offensive system and tempo. Army runs the triple-option at a slow pace while Wake Forest runs a lightning fast spread. Rice's 14-7 loss to Army and Wake Forest's 38-35 win against Utah State may as well have been different sports. Discounting end of half kneel downs, the Rice game saw 17 combined possessions (nine for Rice and eight for Army) while the Wake game saw 31 (fifteen for Wake and sixteen for Utah State). While the Rice defense did acquit itself well against Army, it will be facing a much different foe, at a much faster pace, for more possessions. Nineteen points is a lot to lay with a defense as suspect as Wake's but the Demon Deacons will not be facing a potential NFL quarterback this week. Rice wants to become the G5 version of Stanford and use their girth to impose a power running game on their opponents. At the moment, that is very much a work in progress. Wake Forest is by far the better team so with a fast tempo and more possessions, they should be able to cover this large number.

Maryland -1 Syracuse
Am I really going to do it? Am I backing Mike Locksley in a game his team has to win in order to cover? Sure looks that way. Syracuse began the 2019 season by winning and covering as a road favorite for just the third time under Dino Babers. Despite the shutout victory over Liberty, the Orange look like they are going to miss departed quarterback Eric Dungey. His former understudy and current replacement Tommy DeVito managed to complete less than half his throws to go along with two interceptions against the less than formidable defense of the Flames. The Orange defense played reasonably well (as is usually the case in a shutout), but the Flames did miss a field goal and lose a fumble inside the Syracuse ten, so the Orange are probably not the '85 Bears. As for Maryland, they opened the Mike Locksley era with a dominating performance against Howard. I try not to read too much into blowouts of FCS opponents, but Howard has been competitive against FBS opponents over the past two seasons. I may end up regretting this immediately after kickoff, but I think Maryland can get the win here. Give me the Terps.

Rutgers +20.5 Iowa
Sometimes you have to do it. Despite the aesthetics, you have to back an ugly dog if there is some value. And dogs don't get any uglier than Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights have toiled at the bottom of the Big 10 standings since joining the conference in 2014. Their 3-5 conference mark in their maiden voyage has been the pinnacle of their success in the Big 10. Since winning three of their first eight conference games, Rutgers has gone just 4-31 against Big 10 foes since. However, they have been at least marginally competitive when catching a big number. Under Chris Ash, Rutgers is a respectable 6-7 ATS as a double-digit road favorite. You won't win money consistently betting on them, but there is some value to be had if you pick your spots. Based on how well the offense played in the opener (I know it was against Massachusetts), this might be one of those spots. Against the Minutemen, Rutgers averaged more than seven yards per play for the first time since 2015! Quarterback McLane Carter did throw three interceptions, but he also averaged eleven yards per pass and two pass catchers gained more than one hundred yards receiving. Iowa has Iowa State on deck, so the perennial punching bag may not have the Hawkeyes full attention. In addition, Iowa is just 5-10 ATS as a double-digit home favorite since the start of the 2014 season. I don't know that I would recommend watching this game, but Rutgers should score enough to cover this large number.

Northern Illinois +21.5 Utah
Utah began the 2019 season with great expectations and did not disappoint in their opener. The Utes handily won the Holy War (their ninth victory in a row in the series) on the road. They were only marginally better than BYU in terms of yards and yards per play, but they won the turnover battle (+3) and scored twice on defense to get a relatively large margin against a quality opponent. Now the Utes return home and look to avoid a letdown against Northern Illinois. This is just the second all-time meeting between the two teams, with the first coming last year in DeKalb. Touchdowns were at a premium in that game and the Utes sealed the deal with a late pick six. Meanwhile, Northern Illinois opened the Thomas Hammock era by beating an FCS team, but it should be noted the Redbirds had beaten their last two FBS opponents. I don't expect Hammock and the Huskies to shock the world, but they are a good play catching more than three touchdowns. For starters, this game should be played at a snail's pace. Northern Illinois ran just 68 plays last week while Utah ran 64. This game should feature fewer possessions than your average FBS game and limit the scoring margin. In addition, Utah is coming off an emotional season opener and may not be as motivated facing the Huskies as they would for a conference opponent. The Huskies will keep this one relatively close in the first leg of their Power Five road trip (next two games are at Nebraska and Vanderbilt).

South Florida +6 Georgia Tech
Neither the Bulls nor the Yellow Jackets looked good in their openers, which is why I am very surprised this line is so high. South Florida lost their seventh straight game dating back to last season in non-competitive fashion against Wisconsin while Georgia Tech opened the Geoff Collins era by losing at the defending champs. I know the South Florida program appears to be crumbling under Charlie Strong, but I don't understand how you can lay nearly a touchdown with Georgia Tech. For the past decade or so, the Yellow Jackets were one of my favorite teams to watch as they were the lone Power Five team to run the triple-option. Naturally, there will be growing pains as the team transitions from the triple to a more 'normal' college offense. That was certainly on display last week with the team completing under 40% of their eighteen pass attempts. Of course, as should be obvious from the zero points they scored against Wisconsin, South Florida is not exactly set at quarterback either. Blake Barnett passed like a triple-option quarterback, completing just 13 of his 30 passes against the Badgers. I don't think we'll see the offensive ineptitude the nation witnessed between Wake Forest and Virginia Tech five years ago (#neverforget), but this will probably be an ugly game. When two bad teams are playing, give me the one getting points.

Coming this summer, College Football Classics on ACCN!

Texas A&M +17.5 Clemson
I try not to be contrarian just for the sake of being contrarian, but I feel like Clemson might be a shade overrated this season. Not like they finish 8-4 overrated, just the consensus number one team overrated. I know they certainly looked the part after Trevor Lawrence took over last season, especially in the postseason, but the Tigers did lose a lot of talent to the NFL draft. The Tigers had six players selected in April's draft, including three in the first round. Five of the six players were from last season's stellar defense. With the ACC in shambles, the Tigers are still clear favorites, but perhaps they shouldn't be laying so many points against a quality opponent. The Aggies won their final four games in 2018, including two quality victories against LSU and NC State and opened the 2019 season by routing Texas State. The victory against the Bobcats could have been more impressive had the Aggies not thrown a pick and fumbled inside the Texas State ten. There is a great deal of randomness inherent in turnovers, and while there is no guarantee they won't happen again, all things being equal, Aggie fans would probably prefer they happened last last week. Jimbo Fisher has coached against Dabo Swinney in every season of his head coaching career. While he is just 4-5 straight up and ATS, the underdog in games between the coaches is 6-3 ATS, while the favorite is 8-1 straight up. I believe that trend will continue here. Clemson will win, but the Aggies will cover.

North Carolina +4 Miami
The Tar Heels and Hurricanes enter this conference opener fresh off non-conference games against SEC opponents. While the final score of both games was 24-20, with North Carolina winning and Miami losing by that final score, a look into the respective box scores reveal the Tar Heels were somewhat unfortunate to only win by four, while Miami was fortunate to only lose by four. North Carolina outgained South Carolina by over 200 yards and averaged nearly two more yards per play than the Gamecocks. Freshman quarterback Sam Howell vastly outperformed senior Jake Bentley and despite struggles to finish drives and some clock management issues from Mack Brown, the Tar Heels survived. Meanwhile, Miami was outgained by about a yard per play by Florida and needed a net turnover margin of +3 (and a foolish pass interference) to stay close with the Gators. Miami's porous offensive line allowed their freshman quarterback to be sacked a whopping ten times by Florida! Yet somehow, Miami enters this game favored by more than a field goal. Since joining the ACC, Miami has visited Chapel Hill seven times. They are 3-4 straight up and 1-6 ATS, losing three times as an outright favorite and never winning by more than six points. I expect another close game on Saturday, so take the home team getting points.