The Magnificent Seven: Week III

We bounced back nicely last week. Obviously, as with any great week, fortune smiled upon us. We covered a few games by the slimmest of margins and had a nice backdoor cover by Texas A&M, but we'll take it. Hopefully our luck does not run dry this week. As always, home teams in BOLD.

Last Week: 6-1
Overall: 8-6

Ball State +2.5 Florida Atlantic
They say time is a flat circle and if you look at Lane Kiffin’s coaching career, you might be inclined to believe whoever they is (are?). After a double-digit win season at Southern Cal, Kiffin won just ten of his next 18 games as coach of the Trojans and was famously fired on the tarmac after a blowout loss to Arizona State. After a double-digit win season in his debut at Boca Raton, the Owls are just 5-9 over the past season and two games. Perhaps Kiffin was propped up by his initial offensive coordinator Kendal Briles? Consider that in his first season, the Owls were fantastic as favorites, finishing 8-2 overall ATS in the role and 3-1 ATS as a road favorite. Since Briles departed after the 2017 season, the Owls are just 1-5-1 ATS as a favorite, including 0-2 ATS on the road. Four of those non-covers have resulted in outright upset losses as well. While the Owls have not been favored yet in 2019, their first two performances have been lackluster at best. The Owls did manage a cover at Ohio State, but at home against an in-state rival, they looked listless in a five touchdown loss. The offense is averaging under three and a half yards per play under offensive coordinator and manifestation of white privilege, Charlie Weis Jr. Maybe this is the week the Owls get their act together, but Ball State has been relatively impressive against a decent Power Five team and an overmatched FCS opponent. I’ll take the Cardinals playing at home to continue FAU’s struggles as a road favorite.

Georgia Southern +15.5 Minnesota
I’m not sure why Minnesota was installed as such a large favorite here. The Gophers are quite fortunate to have won their first two games against South Dakota State and Fresno State. Both of their opponents averaged more yards per play than the Gophers and if not for some clutch play and a defensive score, Minnesota could well be 0-2. People might be reticent to back Georgia Southern after their poor showing against LSU when the triple option was bottled up to the tune of just 98 total yards in a 55-3 loss. But if you haven’t noticed, LSU is pretty good. The Tigers showed their offense may have indeed turned a corner by dropping 45 on Texas in Austin. Suddenly the double nickel Georgia Southern allowed in Baton Rouge doesn’t look so bad. Also keep in mind Minnesota was out in California last week and now must prepare for a unique offense without a bye week or offseason to gameplan. I wouldn't be too concerned if Georgia Southern quarterback  Shai Werts is unable to play for the second week in a row as his backup, put up solid numbers against Maine. Regardless of the trigger man, the Eagles should limit the possessions and do enough to keep this one within two touchdowns.

UNLV +19 Northwestern
I follow college football in two ways, as a fan and as a degenerate. That dichotomy certainly manifests itself in this game. In the non-handicapping world, UNLV coach Tony Sanchez is probably on his way out. Through four plus seasons in Sin City, Sanchez has guided the Rebels to a 17-33 overall record with nary a single bowl appearance. The Rebels famously lost as a massive favorite in the 2017 season opener to Cam Newton's little brother and Howard (the university, not the Duck). Ultimately, UNLV finished 5-7 that season, so that loss prevented them from qualifying for the postseason and perhaps buying Sanchez a little time. With two Power Five teams left on the schedule and the rugged Mountain West slate to follow, the Rebels are likely headed for a sixth straight losing season and Sanchez is likely headed to the unemployment line. However, in the eyes of a degenerate, UNLV has been a solid play away from home under Sanchez. The Rebels are 14-7 ATS as a road underdog and 8-3 ATS as a double-digit road underdog. The Rebels are also 4-0 ATS on the road against Power Five opponents. After UNLV's putrid home performance against Arkansas State last week, now is the perfect time to buy in. And you never want to lay a lot of points with Northwestern. Over the past five seasons, Northwestern is just 8-11 ATS as a home favorite including 2-6 ATS as a double-digit home favorite. In addition, the Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in that span as a home favorite against Group of Five teams. They have also lost three of those games outright, including last year to Akron. UNLV looked like trash last week against Arkansas State, but don't forget Northwestern did not exactly set the college world afire in their opener against Stanford. The Wildcats gained just over 200 yards and averaged just 3.5 yards per play against a Stanford defense that was just burnt to a crisp by a freshman quarterback making his first start. I'm not bold enough to predict an outright UNLV win, but don't be surprised if the fourth quarter score scrolls by while your're watching Alabama and South Carolina and shows a one-possession game.

Colorado State +10 Arkansas
I listen to a lot of college football podcasts in the hopes of improving my handicapping skills. I like hearing what successful handicappers think about teams and comparing them to my own thoughts and numbers. That being said, I'm not sure why a lot of handicappers I respect are down on Colorado State. Yes, the Rams were bad last season, but prior to their struggles, Mike Bobo had maintained a solid program in Fort Collins. I figured they were in for a bit of a bounce back in 2019 and nothing they have done thus far has changed my mind. In the opener, they failed to cover against Colorado, but the offense played well. In fact, they were quite comparable to what the ballyhooed Nebraska Cornhuskers did the next week against the Buffaloes. In their second game, the Rams pummeled a quality FCS team, which is much better than what happened last season. Suffice to say, Colorado State has improved in 2019. That is not necessarily the case for Arkansas. The Hogs edged Portland State in their opener and then lost their twelfth consecutive conference game last week to Ole Miss. The Hogs have scored 37 points in their first two games against two of the weaker teams on the schedule. There is a real chance the Hogs go winless in the SEC for the third time in seven seasons. I hate laying a lot of points and you should certainly hate doing so with an offense this bad. Oh, and I forgot to mention Colorado State actually won this game last season so playing an SEC team, albeit on the road, should not be intimidating. The moneyline for this game implies Arkansas has about a 75-80% win probability. I think Colorado State's chances to win are much closer to 40%. Take the Rams to keep this one close and potentially win outright.

Charlotte -19 Massachusetts
In their brief history as an FBS program, Charlotte has been favored against another FBS team just once. They did lose that game, but I digress. The 49ers look like one of the more improved teams in the country under first year head coach Will Healy. Healy rebuilt the Austin Peay program in the FCS ranks, and early returns are positive in the Queen City as well. Charlotte has scored at least forty points in consecutive games for the first time (as an FBS program) and the offense is averaging a pristine 7.1 yards per play. The 49ers have done all this despite a negative turnover margin (-4 through two games) and some special teams breakdowns (allowed three special teams touchdowns in two games). With Conference USA looking less than imposing, the 49ers have a great shot at getting to their first ever bowl game and perhaps challenging for the East division crown. Meanwhile, Massachusetts is in a certified Year Zero situation. In their opener, the Minutemen allowed nearly 50 points to a Rutgers team last seen gaining 47 yards on 27 pass attempts against Iowa. They followed that up by getting tattooed at home by an FCS team (and not a good one). I’m not going to proclaim Walt Bell a failure after two games as head coach, but the Minutemen are in for a long season and may be the worst FBS team of 2019. Charlotte should win and cover her with little difficulty.

TCU -2 Purdue
This line flipped from the opener when the Boilermakers were installed as slight favorites. Part of that probably means the line was incorrect and the other part is probably the health of quarterback Elijah Sindelar. Sindelar suffered a concussion against Vanderbilt and may not play against the Horned Frogs. As this is not the 70's, when this would have probably been classified as Sindelar having his 'bell rung', I would not expect him to play here. Even before the Sindelar news came out, I was thinking of taking the Horned Frogs to cover here. Now with Gary Patterson's team potentially facing a quarterback who has yet to throw a pass in his college career, and the line this low, I almost have to take them. Since 2005, TCU has played seventeen non-conference road games. They are 13-4 straight up in those games and 11-6 ATS. I know the Horned Frogs were less than impressive on offense in their opener against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, and while that will probably prevent them from legitimate contention in the Big 12, their defense should play well enough to get them the win here. And with a spread this low, a win usually means a cover.

New Mexico State +16 San Diego State
After seeing what Boise State, Hawaii, Nevada, and Wyoming did, San Diego State decided to get in on the fun and beat a Power Five team. Their victory against UCLA marked the fourth straight year they have beaten a Pac-12 opponent and gave them a 5-1 record in that span against their supposed superiors. Despite the victory, something feels a little off about this San Diego State team. The defense is still salty as always, holding UCLA to under 300 yards and just 14 points (of course perhaps any functional defense could do that to UCLA). However, the running game, a Rocky Long staple, has not been good in the early going. In Long’s eight plus seasons in San Diego, he has built the Aztecs into a run-first explosive attack. However, the combustibility has been absent thus far in 2019. The following table lists the team’s leading rusher along with their attempts, yardage, and yards per carry for the duration of Long’s tenure.

Only once in the previous eight seasons did the Aztecs leading rusher average less than five yards per carry and half the time they averaged more than six yards per tote. With that track record, it’s stunning how bad the running game has been in the early going. I’m not going to pretend to have watched the All 22 feed of San Diego State’s first two games and broken down the film, but I’m guessing the issue is the offensive line. With Washington’s track record as a solid runner, I doubt he suddenly lost his effectiveness. That being said, San Diego State cannot blame a difficult schedule for their offensive struggles. Weber State and UCLA pale in comparison to the gauntlet New Mexico State has already faced two games into their season. Most Group of Five teams would be 0-2 after trips to Washington State and Alabama. In fairness, the Aggies did not acquit themselves well in either game, losing by a combined margin of more than 100 points. However, the Aggies probably went into those games with the realistic expectation they would lose so I doubt they opened up the playbook. The likely goal was to get in, get out with as few injuries as possible, and collect a sweet, sweet paycheck that the players are in no way entitled to. This is the Aggies home opener and they have a decent chance at victory here (as compared to their infinitesimal odds against Washington State and Alabama), so they should be plenty motivated despite their rough start. Meanwhile, the Aztecs are fresh off a victory against a Pac-12 team and have their conference opener next week, so they could very well be overlooking the Aggies. Also, keep in mind that San Diego State has scored all of two touchdowns this season. This is not a team you want to be laying a lot of points with. Take New Mexico State and the points.