Last Week: 4-3
Overall: 12-9
Western Michigan +6 Syracuse
Despite their performance thus far in 2019, it does not appear the betting market has come around to how bad Syracuse is. The Orange are averaging just under 17 points per game through their first three contests, and while their poor showing against Clemson is included in that data set, the offense did not set the world aflame against Liberty or Maryland either. Their offensive line has been particularly troublesome, allowing fourteen sacks through three games. The Tigers were responsible for eight of those takedowns, but Liberty and Maryland combined for six as well. The offense especially seems to be missing the play of quarterback Eric Dungey. During his four-year career, the Orange played quite poorly when he was not in the lineup. In games where Dungey saw significant action (defined somewhat arbitrarily as throwing at least ten passes), the Orange were 20-16. In games where he did not play at all or threw fewer than ten passes, the Orange were 2-11, with both victories coming at home by three points against sub-par teams. As the Orange entered their fourth season under Dino Babers, I think most observers figured there would be some drop off when Dungey matriculated, but that his replacement would at least maintain a moderate level of performance. That has not happened thus far. To compound things further, the defense has been shredded the past two weeks as well. Maryland and Clemson combined for over 100 points and more than 1200 yards of total offense against the Orange alleged defense. That may not portend good things against a Western Michigan team coming off a 57-point explosion against Georgia State. The Broncos rolled up nearly 700 yards against Georgia State one week after playing a solid offensive game against a very stout Michigan State defense. Although they only managed 17 points against the Spartans, they gained 352 yards and averaged seven yards per pass. Syracuse is a Power Five team, but their defense is light years behind Michigan State’s. Western Michigan will be able to move the ball and score, so the Orange will probably have to get to the mid to high 30’s to cover this number. I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if the reputation of the ACC takes yet another hit on Saturday with Western Michigan pulling the outright upset.
Auburn +3.5 Texas A&M
After their thrilling comeback win against Oregon, Auburn faced two Group of Five opponents and now begin their SEC slog. The offense has been hit-or-miss in the early going, as you might expect from one led by a freshman quarterback. The running game was able to get on track against Kent State and Bo Nix attempted just 16 passes in the win after throwing nearly 70 times in the season’s first two games. I’m usually reticent to back a freshman quarterback making his first road start, but based on the history of this series, the Tigers look like a solid play. Since Texas A&M joined the SEC in 2012, Auburn is 4-3 straight up against the Aggies, but just 2-4-1 ATS. However, they are 3-0 ATS at Texas A&M with two outright wins. In fact, the home team is just 1-6 straight up in this series. The favorite is also just 4-3 straight up, so upsets and road teams playing well are par for the course. In addition, Texas A&M, has not been terribly impressive in the early going. The Aggies have pounded two overmatched teams at home (Texas State and Lamar) while losing at Clemson in a game that was not as competitive as the final score might indicate. Quarterback Kellen Mond has not been especially careful with the football, throwing an interception in each game (I’ll remind you two of those games were against Texas State and Lamar). Other than the homefield, I can’t think of a compelling reason to back Texas A&M. I expect a conservative game plan from Gus Malzahn with the Tigers playing to their strength (defense, in particular the defensive line). The Tigers have already faced a superior quarterback in Justin Herbert and they play in College Station every other year, so they should not be intimidated by the road environment. Take the Tigers to continue the road underdog trend in this series.
North Carolina -3 Appalachian State
Surprisingly, these two Tar Heel State teams have only met once before, during the FDR administration. Has North Carolina been ducking the plucky former FCS power and now FBS overachiever? I don’t know, but I love engaging in reckless speculation, so let’s say ‘Yes’. North Carolina returns home after a non-conference loss to Wake Forest (yes, you read that sentence correctly). The Tar Heels fell behind 21-0, but quarterback Sam Howell nearly engineered his third consecutive fourth quarter comeback. Alas, the football gods invoiced Mack Brown for the extra second they added to the clock in the 2009 Big 12 Championship Game and the Tar Heels suffered their first loss of the season. Appalachian State was off last week, but the week prior, they endured a tough battle with another up and coming in-state team. Charlotte actually outgained the Mountaineers, and the yards per play in the game were roughly equivalent, but some special teams plays allowed Appalachian State to move to 2-0. I expect the Mountaineers to give the Tar Heels their best shot here, but I am surprised this line is only three points. Based on the game location, that implies Appalachian State is roughly equivalent to North Carolina and the spread would be a pick if this game were played on a neutral field. I think Appalachian State’s memorable moments, like their upset of Michigan and their near-misses against Tennessee and Penn State might be tempering this line. While the Mountaineers have a reputation for being a dangerous Group of Five team, their reputation exceeds their middling results. Keep in mind they are just 2-3 ATS on the road against Power Five teams since joining FBS in 2014 and this is by far the lowest spread they will have faced (previous low was 14 against Georgia in 2017). I think North Carolina will win this game by at least a touchdown.
SMU +9.5 TCU
As the proud owner of a TCU regular season win total 'over' ticket, I watched last weekend’s TCU/Purdue game with a vested interest. While the end result was quite satisfying, TCU may not be built to win eight regular season games in the defense optional Big 12. Normally a road win against a Power Five opponent by three touchdowns would be satisfying, but there is at least one legitimate area of concern. They have not been able to generate any kind of passing offense through their first two games. Against Purdue, TCU quarterbacks Alex Delton and Max Duggan, combined to complete eight of 24 passes for a grand total of 75 yards. Those numbers would not be acceptable in the AFC Central in the 1970s, much less the modern college game. All of the blame shouldn’t fall at the quarterbacks’ feet (or arms as it were). TCU receivers seemed determined to set a school record for drops as balls continued to ricochet off their hands and onto the turf. Thankfully, they were able to lean on the running game, with Darius Anderson and Sewo Olonilua both accumulating more than 100 yards on the ground. However, I don’t know if that game plan will work in the Big 12 against more explosive offenses. It should also be noted there were extenuating circumstances in this game. Purdue was without their starting quarterback and TCU head coach and defensive savant, Gary Patterson, had an extra week to prepare with TCU enjoying a bye week after their opener against Arkansas Pine-Bluff. If every Big 12 team is forced to start their backup against TCU, the Horned Frogs may well win the league, but through two games, the offense leaves a lot to be desired. And unfortunately, the Horned Frogs are facing an SMU team that might be able to exploit their offensive deficiencies. SMU has opened the 2019 season 3-0 by dispatching three Group of Five teams in the old Southwest Conference footprint. They slipped by Arkansas State in Jonesboro, and then handled North Texas and Texas State with ease in Dallas. The offense has been balanced with transfer quarterback Shane Buechele outplaying the departed Ben Hicks and the running game averaging nearly 250 yards per game (more than double what they averaged last season). While SMU has typically been a large underdog against their former mid-major vagabond in arms, the Mustangs have gone 4-2-1 ATS their last seven trips to Fort Worth. SMU has a decent shot at winning this game outright and moving me one step closer to tearing up that season win total ticket.
Tulsa -3.5 Wyoming
Has the Craig Bohl era been a success at Wyoming? On the surface, that seems like a dumb question. Since tearing the program down in his first two seasons, (6-18 record), the Cowboys have accomplished the following since 2016: finished bowl eligible three consecutive years, won the Mountain Division, had a quarterback drafted in the first round, and beaten an SEC team at home. All things considered, that ain’t too bad. However, despite improvements on defense, the offense has regressed significantly and the team has one of the worst passing offenses in college football. The Cowboys have played fifteen games since Josh Allen was drafted by the Buffalo Bills. In that span, they have thrown eight touchdown passes (including none so far this season). In that same span, only Navy and Rutgers have thrown fewer touchdown passes (Army has thrown eight as well). Army and Navy have attempted 113 and 145 passes respectively. Wyoming has attempted 322. Rutgers has attempted 410, but they are Rutgers and also have the misfortune of playing in the Big 10 East. Wyoming has faced teams like Hawaii, Idaho, New Mexico State, New Mexico, San Jose State, Texas State, and Wofford during that span. Bohl deserves credit for getting blood from the stone that is the Wyoming offense and managing to win nine of fifteen games since Allen departed, but if the wins dry up, the boring, flaccid pass offense could put him on the hot seat. Speaking of hot seats, Philip Montgomery has to be feeling the heat at Tulsa. Montgomery raised the Golden Hurricane’s profile quickly, by qualifying for a bowl game in his first season and winning ten games in his second. However, since the Miami Beach Bowl beatdown of Central Michigan, the Golden Hurricane have gone just 6-21. In an effort to save his job Montgomery handed the reigns of the offense to Baylor transfer Zach Smith. Smith has posted solid passing numbers thus far despite facing two Power Five teams. If Tulsa has any designs on getting to a bowl, they must win this game. Their AAC schedule includes games against Cincinnati, Memphis, Navy, SMU, and UCF (to say nothing of an improved Tulane and still dangerous Houston), so wins will be hard to come by. Wyoming is perhaps the luckiest (and worst) 3-0 team in college football. Outside of their turnover fueled home upset of Missouri, the Cowboys have faced an FCS team and an FBS team that functions as an FCS team, with both victories coming by a combined fourteen points. The Cowboys are also just 2-8 in road non-conference games under Bohl, with the victories coming against New Mexico State and Texas State. Take Tulsa to cover this low number with ease.
South Carolina +9.5 Missouri
Fresh off hosting one of the nation’s top teams, South Carolina continues their arduous schedule by travelling to the other Columbia where they will meet a familiar face. It’s not enough the Gamecocks still have to deal with Clemson and Georgia later on (not to mention Florida, Texas A&M, and even Appalachian State), they also get to contend with former Clemson quarterback Kelly Bryant. The last time Bryant quarterbacked against South Carolina, his Tigers scored 34 points and left Williams-Brice with an easy victory. That loss marked the only time South Carolina failed to cover as an underdog in 2017. As the table below shows, South Carolina has been very profitable in that role under Will Muschamp, be it at home, on the road, or at a neutral site.
Colorado +7.5 Arizona State
Herm Edwards appears to be trying his damndest to bring 1970s NFL football to the college ranks. Through the first three games of the 2019 season, the average score of an Arizona State game has been 20-7 in favor of the Sun Devils. Arizona State is fresh off a road upset of Michigan State, the second year in a row they have won outright as an underdog against the Spartans. Despite allowing just seven points, Michigan State was able to move the ball, totaling 404 yards (nearly 200 more than the Sun Devils) and averaging about a yard and a half more per play (5.46 to 4.15). Alas, the Spartans were only able to punch the ball into the endzone once, as they missed three field goals, turned the ball over once, and failed on fourth down once. The Sun Devils don’t have to give the victory back, but their defense is not as dominant as the raw numbers suggest. Colorado should provide a solid test for that defense as the Buffaloes come in averaging over 36 points per game through the non-conference portion of their schedule. The point spread is probably a bit inflated after Colorado lost at home in overtime to what may end up being a pretty solid Air Force team. The Buffaloes were not able to stop the Air Force option, as the Falcons rolled up nearly 300 yards on the ground and augmented that with timely passes while averaging nearly 13 yards per throw. Arizona State has a much more conventional offense and has struggled on the ground, averaging under 100 yards rushing per game. They have also struggled protecting their freshman quarterback. The Sun Devils have allowed ten sacks in their first three games, including five to Kent State! Arizona State has not shown the capability of scoring a lot of points in 2019 and they have not performed well after tasting success under Herm Edwards. They won outright three times last season as a betting underdog and were favored two times games immediately following their upset wins. They lost one of those games outright and failed to cover the other as a sizable favorite. Take the Buffs and the points here.
1 comment:
The Tigers never have a problem putting away Gamecocks. Missouri will more than cover.
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