The college footballs season kicks off in earnest this weekend with fourteen games between FBS opponents by my count. Eleven of those fourteen games involve double digit point spreads (including tonight's) and no line is smaller than a touchdown. Odds are we see at least one huge upset this weekend, and hopefully it will be one of the games I have selected below. I'll be here every Thursday with my five best bets of the week for as long as the season lasts. Enjoy the occasional snarky commentary, statistical minutia, and betting insight.
Note: I made two edits to this post on Friday. I couldn't grasp the line moves in the UTSA/Texas State and Coastal Carolina/Kansas games, so I figured there might be some Covid shenanigans afoot. I just didn't feel good leaving those as plays. If you played those games and won, you're welcome. If you played them and lost, this ain't Patreon.
Syracuse +23 North Carolina
If you're looking for a bandwagon to jump on in the ACC, you better hurry because the one in Chapel Hill is filling up fast. The Tar Heels are ranked in the top twenty of the preseason AP Poll and finished third in the ACC media poll. That ain't too bad considering the Tar Heels were 4-6 at one point last season before winning their final three games in blowout fashion. Of course, one of those wins came against an FCS opponent, another came against an arch-rival in a very down year, and the third came in the bowl game against a coach with a notorious history of bowl game flops. Mack Brown has certainly improved the talent level in Chapel Hill, but remember this team finished 7-6 in a weak ACC last season. College football fans probably remember their near miss against Clemson, but the Heels also lost five other games. While all of six of their losses came by a touchdown or less, so did three of their six FBS victories. In fact, the Tar Heels were 0-3 Against the Spread (ATS) as a home favorite last season, losing outright to Appalachian State and Virginia while barely escaping Duke. In addition, mediocre teams that open as big favorites the following season have not done well the past few years. Since 2015, Power Five teams that finished 7-6 or worse the previous season have opened as a double-digit favorite against an FBS opponent 39 times. They are 17-22 ATS in those games (about 44%) and the majority have come against overmatched Group of Five opponents. Those teams have been double digit favorites against fellow Power Five teams just six times while posting a 2-4 ATS record. The sample size is small, but North Carolina fans need only hearken back a year to understand the pitfalls of backing such a team. The Tar Heels were double digit underdogs in their season opener last year against a South Carolina team coming off a 7-6 campaign. The Tar Heels easily covered and won the game outright. I wouldn't advise taking the Orange on the moneyline, but the point still stands: Previously mediocre teams are not to be trusted with such large spreads. While North Carolina has the potential to be good this season (probably top fifteen good), they have yet to prove it, and this spread implies they have already proven it. Using the Simple Rating System from CFB Reference, had this game been played at the end of last season (which I understand it is not), the spread should have been around twelve points (awarding three points for homefield advantage). With no fans allowed in the stadium, its hard to justify the full three points for homefield. Even ignoring the empty stadium, that means for this spread to be accurate, you have to believe the separation between North Carolina and Syracuse has increased by around ten points in the offseason. North Carolina has certainly gotten better, but I would argue Syracuse probably has as well. The Orange finished 5-7 last season after winning ten games in 2018. I don't expect a return to 2018 form, but Dino Babers has shown a knack for coaching the Orange as a big road underdog, with the team posting a 6-3 ATS mark in the role. North Carolina is getting a bit too much love, so take the Orange to stay within three touchdowns.
Charlotte +17 Appalachian State
Two Group of Five programs from the Tar Heel State take center stage on Saturday afternoon, getting a prime ESPN2 slot thanks to the scarcity of games. Both schools are coming off successful seasons, with Charlotte playing in their first bowl game and Appalachian State becoming the first Sun Belt program to finish a season ranked in the AP Poll. With about 40% of FBS teams sitting out the 2020 season, the Sun Belt may have have another team finish in the rankings this year (actually the AP will probably fall all over themselves to rank a 4-6 SEC team instead of the Sun Belt champ). While Charlotte looks to build on that success with continuity at the top, Appalachian State will be led by a different head coach for the third consecutive season. Shawn Clark, a former Mountaineer offensive lineman, replaces Eli Drinkwitz who took the Missouri job late last year. Clark has one of the most talented rosters in the Sun Belt at his disposal, but the upheaval at the top should not be discounted. In addition, the Mountaineers have struggled as a double digit home favorite since making the jump to FBS in 2014. They are just 9-15-1 ATS in that span. They are 23-2 straight up in those games, so they do a good job of winning, but don't cash tickets. Charlotte is good enough to keep this one close, and even if the score looks lopsided in the fourth quarter, the backdoor is always open.
Duke +20.5 Notre Dame
Apparently Donald Trump is going to award Lou Holtz the Presidential Medal of Freedom. Regardless of what you think of Holtz's politics (they suck), I can't agree with giving the award to a man who failed to win any conference titles in more than a decade of coaching the Irish. An extra from The Irishman, Brian Kelly, will look to become the first coach to lead Notre Dame to a conference title of any kind as they take up residence in the ACC in this pandemic shortened season. Their conference opener comes against a Duke team smarting from a 5-7 campaign. 5-7 seasons in Durham used to generate parades, but with David Cutcliffe in charge, the Blue Devils have been bowl eligible in six of the past eight seasons. The Blue Devils will be breaking in a new quarterback when they travel to South Bend, but he may be familiar to ACC fans. Two years ago, Chase Brice saved Clemson's undefeated season when Trevor Lawrence went out with an injury against Syracuse. Brice played well in limited action over two seasons at Clemson and now gets a chance to lead an ACC team. The Blue Devils are not getting a lot of love from oddsmakers or the public in this game, but keep in mind Notre Dame quarterback Ian Book will be without his top three receivers from last season. Breaking in a whole new receiving corps might not be the best way to cover a three touchdown spread. Also keep in mind that while Notre Dame is a mediocre 15-18-1 ATS as a double digit home favorite under Brian Kelly, they are a much worse 5-12 ATS in the role against Power Five teams. Notre Dame is better than Duke, but the Blue Devils should not be confused with Bowling Green or Massachusetts. Expect Duke to keep this close for a while and stay within the number.
South Alabama +10 Tulane
Am I reading too much into South Alabama's upset win against Southern Miss? A victory that at least contributed to the Southern Miss head coach resigning? Perhaps. But there is no denying the fact that South Alabama looked like a competent football team against the Golden Eagles. They won a game against an FBS opponent by double digits for just the second time under Steve Campbell. The Jaguars are in their third season under Campbell, so a meteoric rise would not be unprecedented. While South Alabama already has a game and victory under their belt, Tulane will be breaking in a new quarterback as the team begins their fifth season under Willie Fritz. The Green Wave have played in bowl games the past two seasons, but have not been able to clear the seven win barrier since 2002! With a reduced schedule, odds are they will have to wait until at least next year. While the Green Wave have been successful under Fritz, they have not been road favorites very often. They have been favored by more than a field goal away from New Orleans just twice and they have lost both games outright. I don't quite have the guts to call for an outright upset, but South Alabama has been a live home underdog (or undercat), posting a 5-2 ATS mark under Campbell. Look for South Alabama to keep this within one score.
Western Kentucky +11.5 Louisville
After finishing a combined 5-19 in 2018, these two bluegrass schools changed coaches and nearly reversed their records by finishing a combined 17-9 in 2019. While both teams enjoyed success in 2019, they went about it in vastly different ways. Louisville won shootouts, ranking second in the ACC in yards per play and second to last in yards allowed per play. They averaged over 33 points per game, but allowed over 33 points per game as well (outscored on the year). Meanwhile, Western Kentucky finished in the middle of the pack in Conference USA in yards per play (eighth), but were second best in yards allowed per play. Opponents scored just over twenty points per game against the Hilltoppers revamped defense. Using the same logic I applied earlier to the North Carolina/Syracuse game, judging by last year's SRS scores for both teams, this spread should be around seven points if we award the full three points for Louisville's homefield (which we probably shouldn't). That means if you want to bet this line, you must believe the difference between these teams has increased by at least five points since the end of last season. Based on the Plexiglas Principle, you should probably expect both of these teams to regress a bit. Louisville, being a Power Five team, should probably regress less, but I would have pegged this spread in the eight to nine point range. With it hovering over ten, I think you have to take a look at the underdog in this situation especially considering Western Kentucky was 4-0 ATS as a road underdog last season with three outright wins.
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