Not a bad start to the season. We were in every game and if Syracuse would have done anything at all on offense, it would have been an even better week. Not that I'm bitter or anything. We'll try to keep things rolling this week.
Last Week: 3-2
Overall: 3-2
Boston College +6 Duke
To me, Boston College is the epitome of blandness. Their colors call to mind a fictional football team where the rights to real colleges or professional teams could not be acquired. Their mascot, while not the ubiquitous Bulldog or Tiger, is a run of the mill Eagle (not even a Golden or Screaming variety). And their play on the field has been pretty bland as well. The Eagles have won either six or seven games in six of the past seven years and have gone about winning those six or seven games the same way. They hand the ball off to a heavyset running back destined to wash out in the NFL on offense and when not coordinated by Don Brown, play below-average to decent defense. There are worse fates in fandom, but Boston College is one of the few college teams I don't really enjoy watching. However, while I may not like the aesthetics, I can still see value. And I think Boston College has some on Saturday. Take a look at Duke's Against the Spread (ATS) and Straight Up (SU) record as a home favorite (against FBS opponents) under David Cutcliffe (hard to believe he has been there since 2008!).
Notice how poorly the Blue Devils have performed since winning nineteen combined games in 2013 and 2014. In Cutcliffe's first seven seasons, the Blue Devils were a solid bet as a home favorite, covering more than more than 70% of the time. The Blue Devils also won most of their games as a home favorite, going 14-4 outright. However, since 2015, the Blue Devils are just 4-13 ATS as a home favorite and have dropped eleven of those games outright! It appears the market is giving Cutcliffe and the Blue Devils too much credit when they play at home. In his first seven seasons, the Blue Devils were favored an average of 2.6 times per season at home. In the past five seasons, the Blue Devils have been favored 3.4 times per season at home. Obviously, Cutcliffe has improved the formerly woeful Duke football program, but bettors have been inflating the point spread when Duke is a home favorite. That seems to be the case in this situation. Duke played reasonably well last week in losing by two touchdowns at Notre Dame. However, the reason Duke stayed within the three-touchdown spread is because Notre Dame had to replace their top-three receivers. Remember, Duke only managed thirteen points. Since they were not blown out, now we expect them to beat a conference opponent with roughly equal talent by a touchdown? Seems a bit of a stretch to me. I know Boston College has a new head coach and will be playing their first game while Duke has an established head coach and has already played, but I think being bland is the best play here.
Central Florida -7.5 Georgia Tech
Prior to the Big 10's recent announcement of their intent to return to play in October, Central Florida probably believed they had a non-zero chance to snag a College Football Playoff bid. With three Power Five conferences playing and a four teams required to fill out the dance card, an undefeated campaign, particularly by a team in the national conscience over the past three seasons would have at least merited a look. With the Big 10 presumably back in the mix, the Knights have a tougher task, but pounding a Power Five team on the road would be a good place to start. It's hard to tell how good Georgia Tech is. On the one hand, they should have beaten Florida State by more than three points last week. The Yellow Jackets averaged nearly two more yards per play than the Seminoles, but turnovers and blocked kicks kept the game close. On the other hand, Florida State may just be bad. Since beating Michigan in the Orange Bowl following the 2016 season, the Seminoles are 15-21 against FBS opponents and just 11-20 against Power Five opponents. I think the victory by the Yellow Jackets has done nothing but make Central Florida a great value in this spot. While the Knights did lose to a Power Five team on the road last season, they have also handed out their fair share of beatdowns to Power Five teams since bursting on the scene in 2017. With a College Football Playoff bid dangling as a carrot in front of them, I think the Knights handle Georgia Tech in Atlanta. Obviously, the fact that Georgia Tech has experienced live competition while Central Florida has not could be an issue, but that's a risk I'm willing to take for a number under double digits.
Middle Tennessee +3.5 Troy
These two former conference rivals have not played since 2012, so while COVID-19 may induce social distancing in society at large, it helps get some old friends back together on the football field. Troy dominated this series when both were Sun Belt members, winning seven of nine when the two shared a conference. When the Blue Raiders bolted for Conference USA, Troy struggled for a few years under the long-tenured Larry Blakeney before hiring Neal Brown and winning 31 games between 2016 and 2018. Brown took the West Virginia job after the 2018 season, and the team struggled in their first year under Chip Lindsey, finishing 5-7. Lindsey may be the right man for the job, but trusting Troy to lay points on the road is probably not the wisest investment. Middle Tennessee has been a solid home underdog recently under Rick Stockstill, posting a 4-1 ATS mark in the role against Group of Five opponents since 2017. They have not only covered four of five times, they have also won those four games outright. Making it five of six would not shock me. The Blue Raiders could not be held in lower esteem by the market after their opening performance. They looked ill-prepared for the Army option attack and their end of half clock management would be disparaged by Les Miles. However, Army was a unique opponent and I liked the Blue Raiders coming into the year. Obviously, I will be tucking and rolling from that bandwagon if they have a similar showing here, but I think this is the proverbial opportunity to buy low. The Blue Raiders have a game under their belt and a week off to stew over their poor performance. I expect them to play much better and win outright.
North Texas +14 SMU
The Mean Green and Mustangs have developed a nice little rivalry over the past few seasons. Despite being located roughly forty miles from each other, the two teams met just seven times prior to 2006. Assuming this game is played (never a safe assumption in the era of COVID-19), it will mark the seventh consecutive season these two have met. Both teams have had a week off after winning over Labor Day Weekend. The Mean Green won a shootout against Houston Baptist which looks a little better after the Huskies nearly upset Texas Tech last week. SMU faced a tougher than expected test on the road against Texas State. The Mustangs won, but the game was closer than most expected. The tight game continued a trend for the Mustangs as they failed to cover as large road favorites. Under Sonny Dykes, the Mustangs are 1-4 ATS as road favorites and 0-3 ATS as double digit road favorites. Going back to his time at Cal, his track record is not any better. The Bears and Mustangs have combined to go 2-6 ATS as road favorites and 0-4 ATS as double digit road favorites. Suffice to say, you should be looking at North Texas or nothing in this spot. While the Mean Green are only 3-4 ATS under Seth Littrell as home underdogs, I think they still warrant a play here. SMU is not known for their defense and North Texas appears to be able to move the ball despite the departure of Mason Fine, who quarterbacked the Mean Green for what seems like a decade. I expect a lot of points and even if the game is not organically close, the backdoor should be wide open for a North Texas cover.
Miami +2.5 Louisville
Seeing as how Western Kentucky was one of my picks last week, I watched a decent amount of their game with Louisville. While the Hilltoppers probably should have lost by more than fourteen points, I think Louisville is getting a little too much love for their performance. Quarterback Micale Cunningham was a big play waiting to happen, as he averaged over ten yards per throw against a pretty good Western Kentucky defense. However, despite his success, there were a few big plays that probably should have been interceptions or at least knockdowns. The pass he fluttered that the defensive back attempted to fair catch is one egregious example. Perhaps I am being too hard on Cunningham since I picked the other side, but I think more often than not, those dangerous throws won't become first downs and touchdowns against the better teams on the schedule. With Clemson conspicuously absent from Louisville's revamped schedule, Miami does represent one of those better teams. The Hurricanes are certainly capable defensively, having allowed just over twenty points per game last season. Unfortunately, the offense was inconsistent and the Hurricanes finished 6-7. Seeking a jolt, the Hurricanes welcomed dual-threat quarterback D'Eric King from Houston in the transfer portal. King was a little uneven in his first start for the Hurricanes against UAB, but he still accounted for two touchdowns and the team scored 31 points. It will probably take at least that many to win here, but Louisville may oblige. Remember, last season, a struggling Miami offense hung 52 points on Louisville. The Cardinals appeared to be a little better defensively against Western Kentucky, but the Hilltoppers did not have a quarterback with the play-making ability of King or the offensive talent surrounding him. In fact, if you look at the numbers, you might say Western Kentucky quarterback Tyrrell Pigrome is a poor man's D'Eric King. This is exactly the spot you want to back Miami in. With low expectations, I think a motivated Miami team will win outright. As for what happens the rest of the year...we'll have to play that one by ear. But for one week, against a poor defense, I'll take the Hurricanes.
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