2020 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: ACC

Last week we looked at how ACC teams fared in terms of yards per play. This week, we turn our attention to how the season played out in terms of the Adjusted Pythagorean Record, or APR. For an in-depth look at APR, click here. If you didn’t feel like clicking, here is the Reader’s Digest version. APR looks at how well a team scores and prevents touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns, field goals, extra points, and safeties are excluded. The ratio of offensive touchdowns to touchdowns allowed is converted into a winning percentage. Pretty simple actually.

Once again, here are the 2020 ACC standings.

And here are the APR standings with conference rank in offensive touchdowns, touchdowns allowed, and APR in parentheses. This includes conference games only with the championship game excluded. Since teams played a varied number of games (everyone played at least seven and a few played a full ten game schedule), the rankings are on a per game basis, not raw totals. 

Finally, ACC teams are sorted by the difference between their actual number of wins and their expected number of wins according to APR.

I use a game and a half as a line of demarcation to determine whether or not a team significantly over or under-performed relative to their APR. Using that standard, Louisville was the lone team that saw their record differ significantly from their APR. Astute readers will remember Louisville also under-performed relative to their expected record based on yards per play and we went over some reasons for that last week. No need to rehash that again. 

How to Spot a Championship Game Blowout

I had high hopes for the ACC Championship Game in 2020. It was a rematch of a regular season classic, and despite the fact the locale would be different and Clemson would have access to their starting quarterback, I felt it would be competitive. I could not have been more wrong. Clemson jumped out to a three touchdown lead by halftime and toyed with Notre Dame in the second half in a 24 point victory. While I was wrong about this game, I have developed a nearly fool proof way to determine if the title game you are about to watch is going to be a blowout. Read on to find out how.

I've written before about how shockingly accurate the preseason AP Poll is as a proxy for talent and team strength. This is not an original thought. Other internet folks discovered this valuable insight before me and if I could remember the exact person I stole this idea from, I would cite them here. But I digress. The conference championship game is a relatively recent college football innovation, with the SEC pioneering the event in 1992. Since that means I didn't have to comb through a hundred years or more worth of data, I decided to look at the preseason AP rank of every Power Five conference championship game participant and see how often teams that were ranked in the preseason AP Poll beat teams that were not. Since the SEC started this title game phenomenon we'll look at them first.

We have had seven matchups in SEC Championship Game history where one team was ranked in the preseason AP Poll and the other was not. The team ranked in the preseason poll won all seven games with each victory coming by at least ten points and the average margin of victory coming by more than three touchdowns. Looking at preseason top ten teams, they are 6-0 against teams that were not ranked in the preseason. Their average margin of victory actually dips a little to 19 points per game, but that is all thanks to Cam Newton.

The Big 12 was the second Power Five conference to institute a championship game. While they took a brief hiatus after some of their members departed following the 2010 season, they are back in the championship game business.

Teams ranked in the preseason are 6-1 against preseason unranked teams, winning by an average of nearly four touchdowns per game with five of the seven games being decided by double digits. Colorado was the only team unranked in the preseason poll to beat a preseason ranked team in the title game when they took down Texas in 2001.

The ACC was the third Power Five conference to institute a conference championship game. So we'll look at them next. 

Despite having significantly fewer title games than the SEC, the ACC has more instances of preseason ranked teams taking on preseason unranked teams in said title game. The teams ranked in the preseason are 10-1 overall with the average margin of victory coming by nearly two touchdowns. If we look at preseason top ten teams, they are 6-0 with an average margin of victory of more than 17 points. Interestingly, the lone preseason unranked team to win was Clemson back in 2011. That marked the last time the Tigers were not ranked in the preseason poll.

After the ACC, the Big 10 and Pac-12 expanded and started playing championship games in 2011. We'll go alphabetically and start with the Big 10. 

The Big 10 has the fewest instances of preseason ranked teams taking on preseason unranked teams in the title game. That small sample size means we should probably take the relatively small average margin of victory with a grain of salt. Before we move to the Pac-12, I would like to pay homage to the 2013 Michigan State Spartans. After a disappointing 7-6 finish in 2012, the Spartans were not ranked in the preseason poll in 2013. Riding one of the best modern college football defenses, the Spartans won each of their conference games by at least ten points (including the Big 10 title game against Ohio State). Were it not for a tight loss to Notre Dame in the non-conference, the Spartans may well have faced Florida State in the final BCS Championship Game. 

In the Pac-12, preseason ranked teams are unbeaten against preseason unranked teams, winning by more than twenty points per game on average. The numbers are similar when we look at those teams that were ranked in the top-ten.

So that is how all the Power Five conferences shook out individually. What about when we aggregate the data? First with all preseason ranked teams.

32-3 is a pretty strong record, especially in college football. Those teams won by an average of more than eighteen points per game and nearly two thirds of the games were decided by double digits. Now what about those teams ranked in the preseason top ten that drew conference championship games against teams unranked in the preseason?

Their record is slightly better and their scoring margin is also slightly better. In addition, more than 70% of the matchups resulted in a double digit win for the preseason top-ten team. 

Finally, before we leave, here is a list of all the Power Five conference championship game winners that were unranked in the preseason. We already touched on the three teams that pulled upsets in Power Five title games (Clemson, Colorado, and Michigan State), but three other teams managed to win their conferences despite not being ranked in the preseason AP Poll. How did they do that you ask? By facing other teams that were also unranked in the preseason poll. 

Wake Forest, Auburn, and Penn State were all surprise conference championship game participants that benefited from facing other surprise teams once they got their. The preseason unranked versus preseason unranked in a Power Five title game is truly a rare event, but if you come across a title game where one of the participants was ranked in the preseason poll and the other was not, it might be a good idea to change the channel.