Here are the 2020 Big 10 standings.
So we know what each team achieved, but how did they perform? To answer that, here are the Yards Per Play (YPP), Yards Per Play Allowed (YPA) and Net Yards Per Play (Net) numbers for each Big 10 team. This includes conference play only, with the championship game not included (but the other games from championship weekend are). The teams are sorted by division by Net YPP with conference rank in parentheses.
College football teams play either eight or nine conference games (typically fewer in 2020). Consequently, their record in such a small sample may not be indicative of their quality of play. A few fortuitous bounces here or there can be the difference between another ho-hum campaign or a special season. Randomness and other factors outside of our perception play a role in determining the standings. It would be fantastic if college football teams played 100 or even 1000 games. Then we could have a better idea about which teams were really the best. Alas, players would miss too much class time, their bodies would be battered beyond recognition, and I would never leave the couch. As it is, we have to make do with the handful of games teams do play. In those games, we can learn a lot from a team’s YPP. Since 2005, I have collected YPP data for every conference. I use conference games only because teams play such divergent non-conference schedules and the teams within a conference tend to be of similar quality. By running a regression analysis between a team’s Net YPP (the difference between their Yards Per Play and Yards Per Play Allowed) and their conference winning percentage, we can see if Net YPP is a decent predictor of a team’s record. Spoiler alert. It is. For the statistically inclined, the correlation coefficient between a team’s Net YPP in conference play and their conference record is around .66. Since Net YPP is a solid predictor of a team’s conference record, we can use it to identify which teams had a significant disparity between their conference record as predicted by Net YPP and their actual conference record. I used a difference of .200 between predicted and actual winning percentage as the threshold for ‘significant’. Why .200? It is a little arbitrary, but .200 corresponds to a difference of 1.6 games over an eight game conference schedule and 1.8 games over a nine game one. Over or under-performing by more than a game and a half in a small sample seems significant to me. In the 2020 season, which teams in the Big 10 met this threshold? Here are Big 10 teams sorted by performance over what would be expected from their Net YPP numbers.
Indiana and Northwestern overperformed relative to their YPP numbers. The Hoosiers and Wildcats nearly met in a Bizarro Big 10 Championship Game until the conference changed the rules at the eleventh hour to allow Ohio State to qualify despite playing just five conference games. The Hoosiers and Wildcats were a combined 5-1 in close conference games, but another major reason for their success relative to their performance was their absurd defensive play once their opponents arrived in the Red Zone. In Big 10 play, Indiana allowed nineteen drives inside their twenty yard line, but opponents converted touchdowns less than half the time (nine) and scored at all just over half the time (eleven). Meanwhile, Northwestern was even better at preventing touchdowns. Opponents scored just seven touchdowns in the twenty-five occasions they got inside the twenty. They did manage ten field goals to account for seventeen total scores, but were only able to punch it in the end zone just over a quarter of the time. The Hoosiers and Wildcats were the epitome of 'bend but don't break'. At the other end of the spectrum, Maryland, Michigan, and Purdue all underachieved relative to their YPP numbers. Maryland played only five games, so the small sample size of their conference schedule led to increased variance. The Terrapins were also -7 in turnover margin in those five games. I couldn't pinpoint a reason for Michigan's underachievement, but the Wolverines also played a small number of conference games (6) and had a negative turnover margin (-3). Purdue finished 2-3 in close conference games, but the real culprit for their underperformance were their own Red Zone struggles. The Boilermakers scored just fifteen touchdowns on twenty-eight possessions inside the twenty.
Longest Bowl Losing Streaks
In many respects, 2020 was a dream season for Indiana. In an abbreviated campaign, the Hoosiers finished with one regular season loss and found themselves ranked seventh in the AP Poll when bowl season commenced. Alas, the Hoosiers met up with a volatile Ole Miss team in the Outback Bowl and lost 26-20. Despite the loss, the Hoosiers still finished twelfth in the AP Poll, their highest ranking since finishing fourth in 1967. The loss was familiar for Indiana fans in that it was their sixth consecutive bowl loss. The Hoosiers have not won a bowl game since the 1991 Copper Bowl. Six consecutive bowl losses may seem like a lot, but the Hoosiers have a ways to go to match the all-time record among current Power Five teams. And who might they be chasing for this ignominious record? Why, a team they almost faced in the Big 10 Championship Game and a small, private school with little football tradition, also located in Indiana.
I kid of course about Notre Dame. For a private school, their enrollment is rather large. Honorable mentions for bowl losing streaks go to South Carolina and West Virginia, a pair of schools that followed starkly different timelines in those losing streaks. South Carolina's took more than four decades, while West Virginia squeezed theirs into a twelve year period.
Take heart Indiana fans. While the bowl losing streak continues, at least you can always relish the journey of the 2020 season.
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