2021 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: MAC

Last week we looked at how MAC teams fared in terms of yards per play. his week, we turn our attention to how the season played out in terms of the Adjusted Pythagorean Record, or APR. For an in-depth look at APR, click here. If you didn’t feel like clicking, here is the Reader’s Digest version. APR looks at how well a team scores and prevents touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns, field goals, extra points, and safeties are excluded. The ratio of offensive touchdowns to touchdowns allowed is converted into a winning percentage. Pretty simple actually.

Once again, here are the 2021 MAC standings. 

And here are the APR standings with conference rank in offensive touchdowns, touchdowns allowed, and APR in parentheses. This includes conference games only with the championship game excluded. 

Finally, MAC teams are sorted by the difference between their actual number of wins and their expected number of wins according to APR. 

I use a game and a half as a somewhat arbitrary line of demarcation to determine whether or not a team's record differed significantly from their APR. By that standard, Northern Illinois and Kent State significantly overachieved, while Toledo significantly underachieved. Northern Illinois and Toledo also saw their actual records differ significantly from their expected records based on YPP and we went over some reasons for that last week. For Kent State, it was a story as old as time. The Golden Flashes went 4-0 in one-score conference games, clinching the MAC East title on the final day of the regular season with a one-point win over Miami when the Redhawks failed on a two-point conversion in overtime. 

Unique Non-Conference Matchups

The corona virus has upended normal life for more than two years. Sports is one of the more trivial aspects of life to have been impacted, but I would argue not all impacts to the sporting world have been negative. While the 2021 college football regular season was more conventional, especially compared to 2020, the postseason was a different story. Five bowl games were canceled and two bowls had to find replacement teams thanks to a rise in Covid-19 cases. One of those bowls that had to adjust on the fly was the Sun Bowl. Originally slated to feature the Miami Hurricanes and Washington State Cougars, Miami withdrew on December 26th. On December 27th, Boise State withdrew from the Arizona bowl leaving Central Michigan without an opponent for the fledgling game. The Sun Bowl acted quickly and secured Central Michigan as Washington State's opponent in the Sun Bowl. Why was this significant? It marked just the nineteenth time a current member of the MAC has faced off with a current member of the Pac-12. If you are unfamiliar, MAC teams predominantly play in the midwest, so their non-conference games against Power Five opponents tend to involve ACC, Big 10, Big 12, or SEC teams. So we got a rare MAC/Pac-12 matchup in the bowl game, but more importantly, it was also the first victory by a current MAC team against a Pac-12 opponent. Technically at least. More on that in a moment. For now, here is the complete list of games between current MAC and Pac-12 teams. 

Some interesting tidbits from this table. 

• Give credit to Arizona and Utah. They are the only Pac-12 teams brave enough to venture into MAC territory by playing true road games. 
• Arizona has played seven games against MAC teams, by far the most of any Pac-12 team. 
• California, Colorado, Stanford, and UCLA have not played any games against current MAC teams. Technically. 
• Buffalo and Ohio are the only current MAC teams that have never played a Pac-10/12 opponent. 
• After the real Cold War ended, there was a bit of a Cold War between the MAC and the then Pac-10. There were no MAC/Pac-10 games between 1992 and 2007.  

While the MAC has enjoyed a more stable conference membership that the rest of FBS, there have been some defections (and expulsions) in the league's history. Alas, the former MAC members were never able to deliver a victory against Pac-10/12 opponents. 

As we did previously to Arizona and Utah, let's give some credit to Colorado as the Buffaloes traveled to the east coast to play Massachusetts in 2014. Also note the 2009 Eagle Bank Bowl was the first bowl game to feature a clash of MAC/Pac-10/12 teams. Temple had a double-digit lead at halftime, but was held scoreless in the second half as the Bruins secured the victory. Marshall is the only former MAC team to never face a Pac-10/12 opponent while they were a member of the MAC.

Finally, as I mentioned earlier, while this is technically the MAC's first victory against a Pac-10/12 team, the current MAC teams have beaten future Pac-12 teams and former or future MAC teams have beaten Pac-10/12 teams. Confused? Let me explain. 

Before Colorado joined the Pac-12, they were a member of the Big 8 and then the Big 12 conference. During that time, they played three games against MAC teams, and even lost one of them. 

Finally, Northern Illinois (current MAC member), Temple (former MAC member), and UCF (former) have played games against Pac-10/12 opponents before or after they were members of the MAC. 

Future MAC member Temple was able to net a victory against the Pac-10 in the 1979 Garden State Bowl in luxurious New Jersey, while former MAC member UCF bludgeoned Stanford when the Cardinal traveled across the country in 2019. 

The 2021 Sun Bowl was an extemporaneous delight. Instead of a boring clash between middling Power Fives, we were witness to the MAC's first victory against the Pac-12. Oh, and we got to see Jim McElwain doused with Frosted Flakes. 

They're grrrrrrrrrreat!