2021 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: SEC

Last week we looked at how SEC teams fared in terms of yards per play. his week, we turn our attention to how the season played out in terms of the Adjusted Pythagorean Record, or APR. For an in-depth look at APR, click here. If you didn’t feel like clicking, here is the Reader’s Digest version. APR looks at how well a team scores and prevents touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns, field goals, extra points, and safeties are excluded. The ratio of offensive touchdowns to touchdowns allowed is converted into a winning percentage. Pretty simple actually.

Once again, here are the 2021 SEC standings.

And here are the APR standings with conference rank in offensive touchdowns, touchdowns allowed, and APR in parentheses. This includes conference games only with the championship game excluded.

Finally, SEC teams are sorted by the difference between their actual number of wins and their expected number of wins according to APR. 

I use a game and a half as the standard to determine whether a team's record differed significantly from their APR. By that standard, Missouri and Ole Miss significantly overachieved, while Florida underachieved. The Rebels and Gators also saw their respective records differ significantly from their expected records based on Yards per Play and we went over some reasons why last week. This week, we will focus solely on Missouri. A quick glance at their scoring margin will give you all the information you need to know. Missouri won three SEC games by a combined margin of thirteen points. Contrast that with their five SEC losses, of which four came by at least seventeen points. Their lone competitive conference loss came in the conference opener against Kentucky. 

Upsets in the SEC Championship Game

As you may have heard, Alabama upset Georgia in the SEC Championship game in 2021. It was the first upset in the iconic title game since 2013 when Auburn upset Missouri as a slight underdog on the way to an appearance in the final BCS Championship Game. It marked the sixth upset in the 30-year history of the SEC Championship Game. For your viewing pleasure, the upsets are listed below. 

As I was putting together this list of title game upsets, I noticed something. There have been four significant upsets in the SEC Championship Game (spread of more than a field goal). Three of those upsets have been authored by teams coached by none other than Nick Saban. Two of the upsets kept the defeated team from playing for a national title and the other came against a team an unbeaten juggernaut that had rolled through the regular season. Saban is already considered the greatest college coach of this generation (and perhaps all-time) and this tidbit won't be what most college football fans remember about him, but it is another superlative in his already sterling resume.