Last Week: 3-4
Overall: 3-4
Duke +10 Northwestern
Duke and Northwestern both look to be improved after struggling in 2021. Last season, Duke finished 3-9 and dropped their final eight games once ACC play began. Northwestern also went 3-9, winning just a single Big 10 game. These two academically prestigious institutions have played semi-regularly of late, with this being the sixth meeting since 2015. Duke has won the past three, including last year's game in Durham. I wasn't surprised Northwestern was favored (they did upset Nebraska), but I was shocked the line opened over a touchdown and has steadily climbed throughout the week. Duke looked good in their opener as well, blasting Temple in the first game of the Mike Elko era. Temple may end up as the worst team in the AAC once the 2022 season plays out, but it was still an impressive showing for a team that dropped their last eight contests by an average of nearly 32 points per game last season! If you had made this spread before Northwestern beat Nebraska, what would it have been? The Wildcats would likely have been favored, but not by much. The Wildcats showed their offense was at least competent against Nebraska, but their defense allowed over six yards per play and is too leaky to be laying this many points. Duke's offense is probably not as good as Nebraska's (it may be, but again, their first game was against Temple), but their defense may be comparable. The Blue Devils limited Temple to under 200 total yards at about three yards per snap (again, Temple). Meanwhile, Northwestern's showing against Nebraska, especially their ground attack lost a little shine last week. The Cornhuskers eventually pulled away against North Dakota in Lincoln, but they allowed over five yards per rush to an FCS team that finished 5-6 last year. David Cutcliffe had a great career at Duke, but by the end of his tenure, his tactics and message had gotten stale. The Blue Devils made a solid hire in Mike Elko and I think a return to competency has begun in Durham. I'll take the Blue Devils and the ten points.
Army +2.5 Texas-San Antonio
This is a brutal spot for the UTSA Roadrunners. The Roadrunners are coming off a heartbreaking triple overtime home loss to an in-state rival (Houston) they consider a sort of big brother. Next week they travel to Austin to face on a another in-state big brother (Texas). And in between, all they have to do is travel from San Antonio to West Point to take on a disciplined triple option team for a Noon kickoff. And yet they are laying points to the Black Knights. Army also lost last week at Coastal Carolina, but the offense hit some big plays and the Black Knights were in the game until late in the fourth quarter against one of the nation's best quarterbacks (Grayson McCall) on the road. Army has won the two previous meetings in this series (2019 and 2020) while averaging over 300 yards per game on the ground and over five and a half yards per carry. I know those games came two and three years ago respectively, but UTSA has not faced any other option offenses under Jeff Traylor and I think the Roadrunners shot their proverbial wad last week against Houston. This week they experience the refractory period.
Pittsburgh +6 Tennessee
Pittsburgh probably should have dropped their opener to West Virginia. However, thanks to some chicken shit coaching by Neal Brown and a dropped pass that resulted in a pick six, the Panthers prevailed. While Neal Brown was doing his best to lower West Virginia's win probability, Pat Narduzzi was almost his equal. Despite having an accurate quarterback, Narduzzi insisted on playing football like it was the 1970's, having his running backs pound the rock, despite their lack of success. The Panthers ran 33 times for 115 yards or roughly the equivalent of an Eddie George NFL carry. They passed just 29 times and even accounting for the five sacks the team allowed, netted 269 yards through the air (over nine yards per pass). Narduzzi's conservatism will likely cost Pittsburgh a game or two this season, and it may even be in this spot. However, since Tennessee will be playing at Mach One, Narduzzi will probably not be able to give in to his base desires and run the ball on two out of every three plays. Tennessee will accumulate yards and score points, but how good are they? The Volunteers blasted Ball State last week, but most of their victories in the early going under Josh Heupel have been against outmanned competition. The Volunteers beat one team that finished with more than six regular season wins last year (Kentucky). Plus, this is an unusual role for Tennessee. Outside of the weird pandemic season, Tennessee has not been favored on the road since 2016! The Volunteers have the coaching advantage, but I think these rosters are pretty close in terms of talent. I expect Pittsburgh to make and allow big plays on defense. It may not be enough to win the game outright, but it should be enough to cover.
Florida International +13.5 Texas State
On November 23, 2019, Florida International upset Miami to become bowl eligible for the third consecutive season under Butch Davis. That victory marked the apex of the program as Florida International has gone just 2-18 since that victory with both wins coming against FCS opponents. One of those victories came last week, but it required a fourth quarter comeback and a two point conversion in overtime. And their vanquished foe, Bryant, is not exactly North Dakota State. The Bryant Bulldogs did finish 7-4 last season, but have never made the playoffs at the FCS level. And apropos of nothing, lest you think conference geography is only wonky at the FBS level, consider Bryant, a school located in Rhode Island, is a member of the Big South Conference. While Florida International struggled in their opener, but won, Texas State struggled and got hammered by what may end up being a pretty bad Nevada team. The Bobcats allowed just 274 yards to Nevada, but committed four turnovers and turned the ball over on downs twice allowing Nevada to cruise to victory. Texas State is no doubt the better team, but this line is way too high. Since joining FBS in 2012, Texas State has been favored by double digits against an FBS team four times. Denoting how far the program has fallen since joining FBS, each instance happened prior to 2016 when Dennis Franchione was the head coach. The Bobcats are 1-3 ATS in those games. You can't lay nearly two touchdowns with a team as bad as Texas State. If this game were later in the year, Florida International may have quit and this might be a good lay down spot. However, in just the second game of the season, I expect the Panthers to play hard and keep this one interesting.
Northern Illinois +6 Tulsa
Tulsa was a bit unfortunate to drop their opener at Wyoming last week. The Cowboys returned a fumble and a blocked punt for a touchdown in their double overtime victory. However, while the Golden Hurricane probably 'should have' won, their defense allowed 256 yards through the air to a team that managed 30 passing yards and completed a quarter of their throws the week prior against Illinois. Now the Golden Hurricane head back to Tulsa to face a team genetically engineered to play in close games. Thomas Hammock has coached 33 games at his alma mater and 20 of those games have been decided by one score. Against Group of Five and FCS teams, the close game percentage is slightly higher (18 out of 28), so I would not expect either team to get much margin. The Huskies run the ball, milk the clock, and often go for it on fourth down. Against teams like Michigan, that is a recipe for getting blown out, but against teams with similar talent (Tulsa is dead last in the AAC in the current 247 talent composite), that has been a recipe for success. Their close win against Eastern Illinois in the opener does worry me a bit (Panthers were 1-10 last season), but again, I think they are built for close games and Tulsa did not impress either against a team that looked like it had never thrown a forward pass the week before. I'll take the Huskies to play yet another close game and potentially eke out another win.
Eastern Michigan +11.5 Louisiana-Lafayette
Since Chris Creighton arrived in Ypsilanti prior to the 2014 season, Eastern Michigan has been making degenerates money hand over fist as a road underdog. Over his eight seasons in charge, the Eagles are 25-12-1 ATS in the role. They have been a coin flip against Power Five opponents (5-5), but against fellow Group of Five teams, they are an outstanding 20-7-1! That also includes a perfect 4-0 ATS record in non-conference games. During Creighton's first two seasons in charge, the Eagles were double digit underdogs to Group of Five teams eleven times. They were just 5-5-1 ATS in those games. Indicating how far the program has come under his watch, the Eagles have been double digit underdogs to Group of Five teams five times since 2016. They have covered each time. I know playing trends can be dangerous, but neither team's performance in their FCS scrimmage gave me the impression this line should be more than a touchdown. Eastern Michigan and Louisiana-Lafayette beat solid FCS teams (Eastern Kentucky and Southeast Louisiana) and showed they may struggle on defense (Eastern Michigan) and offense (Louisiana-Lafayette) respectively. The Ragin' Cajuns are fresh off the best season in school history, but lost their head coach, starting quarterback, and a host of defensive stalwarts. I think Eastern Michigan's phenomenal performance in the road underdog role will continue and an outright upset would not surprise me.
New Mexico State +16 UTEP
This write up could be a copy paste from the FIU/Texas State game a few lines up. UTEP played about how one might expect against Oklahoma last week. The Miners never threatened and lost by a margin (32) close to the closing line (31). But since the Miners played in Week Zero, they also have another data point and that one did not age well. In their opener, the Miners lost at home to North Texas by 18 points. Maybe the Mean Green have got it going on, oh wait. Following their road win against the Miners, North Texas returned to Denton to host SMU. The Mustangs beat them 48-10. Check the box score if you'd like. That wasn't a fluky blowout. SMU averaged nearly nine yards per play and threw for over 400 yards on the Mean Green secondary. New Mexico State has also played two games, and while they have failed to cover in both, they did show some signs of life in the opener, particularly when freshman Gavin Frakes played. I expected Frakes to start last week against Minnesota, but the more athletic Diego Pavia got the start. I'm not sure who will start against UTEP, but I expect Frakes and Pavia to both see action as the Aggies return to their weight class after facing Minnesota on the road. UTEP has scored 13 points in both of their first two games. And if you watched any of Arizona's victory against San Diego State, you know they are missing the big play ability of receiver Jacob Cowing. Cowing averaged nearly 20 yards per catch last season, helping the Miners average over 16 yards per catch as a team. Through two games this season, the team is averaging just over 11 yards per catch. Its hard to consistently drive down the field without a big play threat. I expect UTEP to top their season average of 13 points, but they will not cover this big number.
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