It was almost a fantastic week. But then we lost two games that made it to overtime and clinched a second consecutive losing week. Perhaps the fates will show us mercy this weekend. Home teams in BOLD.
Last Week: 3-4
Overall: 6-8
Nebraska +10.5 Oklahoma
Mercifully, the Scott Frost era at Nebraska is over. Centuries from now when historians review his won/loss record as a head coach, the 2017 season at Central Florida will stick out like a sore thumb. Frost's charges finished 13-0 that season, but his other six teams (one at Central Florida and five at Nebraska) managed a 22-38 record with zero winning seasons. With his dismissal, Frost will miss the chance to beat Nebraska's former conference rival. The Sooners have not played in Lincoln since 2009 (I expect this game to be higher scoring) and have actually dropped seven of their past eight visits to the Red Sea. Of course, five of those visits came before Bob Stoops resurrected the program, but historically, the Sooners have not experienced a great deal of success at Nebraska. This iteration of Nebraska has effectively moved the ball (at least six yards per play against each of their first three opponents), but have been ghastly on defense, particularly on the ground. I expect Oklahoma to be able to move the ball and score points against the Huskers, but Nebraska should be able to answer. While the Huskers were never able to get over the proverbial hump under Frost, they did keep games close. They have not lost by double digits since 2020 (in a game where they were a double digit favorite) and twelve of their past thirteen losses have come by a touchdown or less. The heartache likely continues on Saturday. I expect Nebraska to be motivated in playing for Frost and their interim coach Mickey Joseph. Were this mid-November, I would hesitate to back Nebraska, but since it is early in the season, I'll back them catching double digits.
Buffalo +14 Coastal Carolina
Buffalo and Coastal Carolina both played tight games with FCS teams last week. The Bulls lost to Holy Cross on a Hail Mary at the end of regulation while Coastal needed a fourth quarter comeback to knock off Gardner-Webb. Holy Cross is a ranked FCS team and is coming off three consecutive FCS playoff appearances. Meanwhile Gardner-Webb was 4-7 last season. Perhaps the Bulldogs are an ascendant power at the FCS level, but I don't think this spread is taking into account just how close Coastal Carolina came to losing that game at home. Through two games, Grayson McCall has been his usual outstanding self (six touchdowns and over ten yards per pass), but the Coastal running game is averaging under three and a half yards per carry and the defense has allowed over seven yards per play to both Army and Gardner-Webb. Buffalo gave up 37 points to Holy Cross last week, so I don't expect them to be able to shut Coastal down, but the Bulls should be able to move the ball against a porous Coastal defense. These teams played last year in upstate New York and Coastal, with a much better overall team, escaped with a three point victory. The Bulls won't be able to get enough stops to win, but they can cover two touchdowns.
California +11.5 Notre Dame
Safe to say, the honeymoon is over in South Bend. Marcus Freeman ascended to the head coach position when Brian Kelly left for LSU after last season. In his brief tenure, his Irish have blown a big lead in the Fiesta Bowl, pushed Ohio State to the limit in the Horseshoe, and lost at home to Marshall. While the defensive performance against Ohio State was impressive, its clear this team lacks play-makers on the offensive side of the ball. Notre Dame has produced six explosive plays (per Game on Paper) in their first two games and are averaging under five yards per play as a team. Oh, and their starting quarterback is out for the rest of the regular season. To cover big numbers, the Irish are going to have to score and that may prove difficult against a Cal team that is pretty much a carbon copy of every Cal team under Justin Wilcox. Under Wilcox, the Bears play good to elite defense, but struggle moving the ball and end up as a mid-tier Pac-12 team. Despite their offensive struggles, the Bears have been a great bet as a road underdog under Wilcox, posting a 14-4 ATS mark, including 11-1 since the start of 2018! This has all the makings of game played in the teens or low twenties. Nothing the Irish have shown through their first two games makes me believe they can cover double digits against a competent Power Five team. An 0-4 start to Marcus Freeman's tenure would not shock me.
Georgia Tech +16.5 Ole Miss
If you want to craft a schedule to get your hot seat coach fired, Georgia Tech has created a perfect template. The Yellow Jackets have the misfortune of facing a national power in their annual non-conference rivalry game and their permanent cross-division rival in the ACC happens to be having their best run in school history. With two losses in near permanent marker on the schedule annually, the Yellow Jackets added a trip to a Group of Five power and a home game with an SEC school not named Vanderbilt to the 2022 slate. Before the season, the only guaranteed win looked to be Western Carolina, and while the Yellow Jackets handled their business against the Catamounts last week, one of their other potential victories (Duke) is looking a little dicey. Geoff Collins is going to have to pull at least one and perhaps two massive upsets to save his job. Can that happen this week? I'm slightly optimistic. For starters, we are still early in the season. If this game were taking place later in the year, Georgia Tech would probably be playing out the string and unlikely to put up much of a fight. Another reason this game could be closer than the experts think is due to the changes at Ole Miss on the offensive side of the ball. Quarterback Matt Corral is on injured reserve in the NFL. The top four rushers and top three receivers from last year's team are gone. Offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby is at Oklahoma. The Rebels have put up decent offensive numbers through their first two games, but facing Troy and Central Arkansas at home is a bit different from a true road game against an unfamiliar Power Five opponent. Over the summer, I looked at how SEC teams performed in true non-conference road games against unfamiliar opponents. By unfamiliar I mean games where the teams do not play annually (like Georgia and Georgia Tech). In the College Football Playoff era (since 2014), SEC teams are 7-3 in such games (including Mississippi State's victory at Arizona last week), but are just 3-7 ATS. The sample size is relatively small, but the market gives those SEC teams a little too much respect. Ole Miss will probably win this game, but this number is too high.
LSU +2.5 Mississippi State
Almost exactly two years ago, this very game in this very place marked the beginning of the end of the Ed Orgeron era at LSU. The SEC delayed the start of their season due to the Covid-19 pandemic. On the final weekend of September, SEC play began and on that weekend, LSU was set to defend their national title by hosting Mike Leach is his debut at Mississippi State. The Tigers were prohibitive favorites (16 or 17 points), but in a chilling vision of things to come, their defense stunk up the joint, allowing over 600 yards and 44 points to the Bulldogs. The Tigers never righted the ship and finished up the Coach O era with a pair of .500 regular seasons. Now Brian Kelly gets to do his best Farmer Fran impression in a bid to win his first national title at the FBS level. Kelly's debut ended in dramatic fashion with a blocked extra point costing them a chance to force overtime against Florida State. After a reprieve last week against Southern, the SEC gauntlet begins. Kelly has been an FBS coach for nearly two decades (Central Michigan, Cincinnati, and Notre Dame) and befitting his success, his teams have rarely been home underdogs. However, they have performed quite well in the role. His teams are 13-5-1 ATS as a home underdog with eleven outright wins! Similarly, LSU has done well as a home underdog in general. In the past decade, the Tigers are 7-4-1 ATS as a home underdog, with six outright wins. In addition, their four non-covers all came against Alabama. Like the Supreme Court, I tend to defer to precedent (sometimes) and Mississippi State has rarely been favored in Baton Rouge. The last time was in 2000 (and they lost). I think the Tigers pull off the outright upset against a Bulldog team that is a little overvalued by the betting market.
Georgia State -19 Charlotte
Three years ago, Will Healy and Club Lit were one of the great Group of Five stories. However, since his 7-6 debut, the 49ers have gone just 7-14 and have allowed more than 35 points per game! The defense, which was the worst in Conference USA on a per play basis last season, has somehow gotten worse. And with quarterback Chris Reynolds missing time with an injury, the offense has not been able to keep the 49ers in games. The 49ers will likely be 0-5 before they return to conference play on October 1st against UTEP, but even against a weak Conference USA, this team will have to do some serious work to get back to a bowl game. I haven't read any updates on Reynolds' status, but I don't expect him to play. The 49ers will be hard pressed to allow less than 40 points to a Georgia State team that loves to run the ball (over 200 yards rushing in nine of their thirteen games last season). And without Reynolds, I'm not very confident they can score twenty points. Georgia State will want to let off some steam after playing well, but coming up short in their first two games against Power Five opponents. The Panthers should roll in this spot.
Central Florida -8 Florida Atlantic
Last week against Louisville, John Rhys Plumlee showed why he could not hold onto the starting quarterback job at Ole Miss. Plumlee was dynamic on the ground, gaining 83 yards (would have had 97 if sacks were properly attributed to passing yardage), but completed less than half his passes as Louisville put the clamps on the Central Florida offense. That imbalance will not fly in the Power Five, but against Group of Five, particularly lower-tier Group of Five teams like Florida Atlantic, his raw athleticism should win the day. Remember, Florida Atlantic allowed 41 points to Ohio, so Central Florida should be able to feast on the Owls. And despite the loss to Louisville, the defense only allowed 20 points to the Cardinals. If Florida Atlantic can only muster a similar amount, Central Florida should have no trouble covering this modest number.
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