Last Week: 4-3
Overall: 53-38
Akron +11.5 Buffalo
I actually wrote this game up two weeks ago before it was postponed due to the Buffalo Blizzard. Back then, the spread was 14.5, but I still like Akron even at this deflated number. While this isn't a conference title game, it does have significant repercussions for one team. Having lost three consecutive games, Buffalo needs to win to qualify for their first bowl game under head coach Maurice Linguist. While the Bulls are in contention for a bowl game, Akron has actually gained more yards per play and allowed fewer yards per play than the Bulls against MAC opponents. Buffalo may have the motivation edge, but Akron has been the better team in conference play. Akron has also done well as an underdog this season against teams with similar talent levels. The Zips are 3-1 ATS as a road underdog against other Group of Five opponents. Buffalo is just 1-3 ATS as a home favorite under Linguist, losing twice outright, including last year as a double digit favorite to Bowling Green. I'm not bold enough to call for an outright upset, but Akron should keep this one close.
North Texas +9 Texas-San Antonio
The Roadrunners are going for their second straight Conference USA title before they move to the AAC. In fact, both participants in this title game will be playing in the AAC next year. UTSA closed their Conference USA membership on quite a run, winning eighteen of their final nineteen regular season league games. Who was the lone team to beat them in that span? North Texas, in the regular season finale last year. The Mean Green dominated UTSA, got their sixth win, and likely saved head coach Seth Littrell's job. The Mean Green also nearly beat the Roadrunners in the Alamo Dome this year, losing a back and forth affair six weeks ago. These two teams have the best passing offenses (by yards per play) in Conference USA, so I expect a high-scoring affair, similar to last year's title game when UTSA knocked off Western Kentucky 49-41 as a slight home underdog. The Roadrunners built a big lead and held off a furious Hilltopper rally to win last year, buoyed in part by three Western Kentucky turnovers. Six weeks ago, the spread in this game was about the same (UTSA favored by ten) and the Mean Green easily covered. I expect a repeat performance and even if the Roadrunners get ahead, North Texas is more than capable of getting in the backdoor with their prolific offense. Take the Mean Green and don't be surprised if they prevent UTSA from repeating as conference champs.
Central Florida +3.5 Tulane
Based on the most recent College Football Playoff Rankings, the winner of this game will be playing in the Cotton Bowl. Central Florida appeared in back to back New Year's Six bowl games in 2017 and 2018 and also played in a BCS bowl game in 2013. Tulane on the other hand, has not played in a major bowl game since the 1930's when they played in a Rose and two Sugar Bowls. These two teams faced off three weeks ago in the same venue with Central Florida emerging victorious. The Knights rushed for over 300 yards in that game and scored 38 points (the most the Green Wave have given up all season). Based on resumes and advanced statistics, Tulane is probably the better team. However, Central Florida's running game, particularly their mobile quarterback, is a bad matchup for Tulane. Just last week, Tulane struggled against Cincinnati's mobile backup quarterback as the Bearcats rushed for a season high 235 yards. Central Florida and Tulane have shared a conference for much of the past two decades, meeting eleven times as league opponents since 2005. The Green Wave are just 2-9 straight up in those games, with one of the victories coming against a winless Central Florida team in 2015. The Green Wave have been a little better against the spread, posting a 5-6 ATS record, but most of those covers have come when they were catching double digits. The Green Wave have been favored in two of the previous eleven contests and have not covered either time (including earlier this season). As much as I want to see Tulane in the Cotton Bowl, the matchup and the history point to the Knights.
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