The streak continues. Our best week of the season has us riding high. Can we keep it going over the holiday weekend? Home teams in BOLD.
Last Week: 6-1
Overall: 49-35
Tulane +2 Cincinnati
The winner of this game heads to the AAC Championship Game, most likely for a potential rematch against UCF. Houston is still alive and I think the loser of this game could also back their way into the title game, but all that requires UCF to lose to South Florida. This is college football, so anything is possible, but the winner in this spot should plan on having a chance to avenge their loss to the Knights. While Cincinnati is favored in this game, Tulane has been much more dominant against AAC foes. The Green Wave have a +91 point differential in their six AAC victories, with five coming by double digits. Cincinnati has a point differential of +48 in their six victories, with three coming by less than a touchdown. Both teams have very good defenses, and I don't mean by Group of Five standards. The Bearcats and Green Wave have the top two pass defenses (by yards per play) in the AAC. Tulane has been susceptible to the run this season, as the rushing attacks of UCF and South Florida are the only two teams to top thirty points against the Green Wave. However, Cincinnati does not have a great rush offense, so they will not be able to exploit Tulane's biggest weakness. They also may have a new starter at quarterback as Ben Bryant is dealing with a foot injury. Cincinnati has the pedigree, having played in the past three AAC Championship Games, but Tulane has been the better team this season. Take the Green Wave to win and get to their first ever conference title game.
Missouri +3 Arkansas
Arkansas began the year ranked in the preseason AP Poll for the first time since 2015 and after a 3-0 start, actually made their way into the top ten. However, since that 3-0 start, the Razorbacks have lost five of eight thanks mostly to the second worst per play defense in the SEC. Even in their bowl clinching victory against Ole Miss last week, the Razorbacks allowed over 700 yards of offense at nearly eight yards per play! Meanwhile, Missouri has played fantastic defense this season, ranking fifth in the SEC in yards allowed per play. Aside from a stinker in Knoxville, the Tigers have held their other six SEC foes to under nineteen points per game. Of course, the Tigers only managed to win two of those six games because their offense averaged just over eighteen points per game in those contests. I think the Tigers will have one of their best offensive showings of the year against Arkansas in a tough spot for the Razorbacks. Arkansas has played two straight homes games against ranked conference opponents (LSU and Ole Miss), losing a tight game to LSU and dominating the Rebels. Now they must go on the road to a place where they have struggled. Since Missouri joined the SEC in 2012, the Tigers are 4-0 against Arkansas in Columbia, with two outright victories as an underdog. In addition, Missouri needs this win to qualify for a bowl and perhaps save their head coaches' job. Take the Tigers pull the slight upset.
Florida State -9.5 Florida
Frequent readers of this blog probably know I don't like laying points. They probably also know I don't like laying big numbers. And they probably know I really don't like laying big numbers in a rivalry game. You can argue whether this is a big number, but it is the most points Florida State has been laying in this game since 2013 (when I hear they fielded a pretty good team). The Seminoles seem to have gotten their act together after a rough stretch at the end of the Jimbo Fisher era, the entirety of the Willie Taggart era, and the beginning of the Mike Norvell era. They also seem to have gotten their act together after a three game losing streak that could have derailed this season. However, they have responded and won their past four games by a combined 134 points. Meanwhile, Florida has been up and down under first year head coach Billy Napier. The Gators have beaten Utah, blasted South Carolina in The Swamp, and won at Texas A&M. However, they have also lost at home to Kentucky, edged South Florida, and lost to Vanderbilt. Florida is a mediocre SEC team while Florida State is a semi-elite team that is underrated by the betting market thanks to three losses. Judging by this spread, you are still getting a small discount on the Seminoles. Enjoy it while it lasts and back them in this spot.
Wyoming +15 Fresno State
Wyoming nearly upset Boise State and took control of the Mountain Division last week despite a grand total of thirty passing yards. Making his first collegiate start, Jayden Clemons completed three of his sixteen pass attempts with the final one being intercepted in the endzone to clinch the loss. It is unknown at this time whether Clemons will start again or if the slightly superior Andrew Peasley will return from injury. Either way, the Wyoming pass offense will not be what keeps the Cowboys in this game as they have not had a competent quarterback since Josh Allen was making scouts salivate five years ago. The task of keeping Wyoming in this game will fall to their rushing attack and their defense. The Cowboys are currently averaging over five yards per carry as a team and have been especially explosive over the past month. Over their past four games, the Cowboys have averaged 279 yards per game on the ground at nearly seven yards per carry (6.84)! Fresno State has been susceptible to the run, allowing 4.51 yards per carry on the season. Defensively, the Cowboys have held six of the seven conference foes to twenty points or less. Their ground oriented offense keeps the clock moving and their above average defense (by Group of Five standards) keeps them in the game. Fresno State has nothing to play for in this spot, having locked up the West Division. They have a date with Boise on the Smurf Turf next week regardless of what happens here. Fresno State has won six in a row after a 1-4 start and while they have put up some impressive offensive performances since quarterback Jake Haener returned from injury, those have tended to come against the dregs of the Mountain West schedule. The Bulldogs have beaten Hawaii, Nevada, and New Mexico (combined Mountain West record of 2-19) by 101 total points. Their other three conference victories against tougher competition (San Diego State, San Jose State, and UNLV) have all come by one score. This is too many points to give a competent team. Take the Cowboys.
Marshall's first year in the Sun Belt has been a real roller coaster ride. The Thundering Herd won at Notre Dame in September, but followed that up with an overtime loss at Bowling Green. They lost their first two Sun Belt games, upset James Madison, and then lost to Coastal Carolina to dash any hopes at a conference title. However, since that loss to the Chanticleers, the Herd have won three in a row and with a bowl game assured, have a chance to win nine games for the first time since 2018. Even if they finish with nine victories, one might be inclined to view this season as somewhat of a disappointment. Marshall has one of the best defenses in the Group of Five, but their offense has limited their ceiling. In conference play, only three teams (Arkansas State, Southern Miss, and Texas State) average fewer yards per play and the Herd have been held to thirteen or fewer points on four occasions this season. It's a credit to their defense they actually won one of those games and were in the other three in the second half. I don't like laying a lot of points with teams that struggle to score and Marshall has not been great as a home favorite under second year coach Charles Huff (not to be confused with knuckleball pitcher Charlie Hough). Under Huff, the Herd are 1-6 ATS as home favorites with five outright losses. Georgia State is a dangerous team that is probably better than their 4-7 record. Take the Panthers to keep this one close.
Memphis +4.5 SMU
2022 will go down as a season of missed opportunity for Memphis. The Tigers won their first two conference games against pesky Navy and bad Temple and looked poised to move to 3-0 against Houston. However, an onside kick recovery allowed Houston to erase a double digit deficit in the final minutes. That loss was followed by a multiple overtime loss at East Carolina. That loss was followed by Memphis digging a big hole at Tulane and nearly coming all the way back. That loss was followed by a one-score home loss to UCF. Credit the Tigers for getting off the mat after four consecutive losses to beat Tulsa at home and enjoy a cakewalk last week against North Alabama. The Tigers can't atone for their close defeats in the finale against SMU, but they can clinch a winning record. Despite their mediocre record, the Tigers have the second best per play defense in the AAC, limiting conference opponents to just 5.18 yards per play. Meanwhile, SMU has one of the worst defenses in the AAC. Only South Florida and Navy allow more yards per play to conference opponents. The Mustangs are playing at home, but the per play numbers indicate Memphis is the better team. The Tigers have been competitive in each of their conference losses and I expect them to keep this once close as well.
Louisiana-Monroe +3.5 Southern Mississippi
How can Southern Miss be laying points on the road when they can't score? The Golden Eagles have averaged just under 21 points per game in their seven Sun Belt games and have been held to twenty or fewer points five times. Half of their FBS wins this season have come by three points or less. Their scoring (or lack thereof) is not a function of them moving the ball and struggling when they have scoring opportunities. They rank thirteenth in the Sun Belt in yards per play (second to last). At least their offense has a sense of symmetry as they rank thirteenth in both yards per rush and yards per pass. They may be able to look like a competent offense against the Warhawks who rank twelfth in the Sun Belt in yards allowed per play, but Louisiana-Monroe has a pretty good (by Sun Belt standards) passing attack. Quarterback Chandler Rogers will be the best offensive player on the field (sorry Frank Gore Jr.) and the Warhawks should be able to move the ball against a slightly below average Southern Miss defense. Terry Bowden's rebuild in Monroe is ahead of schedule and the Warhawks have been nasty as a home underdog. They are 5-1 ATS in the role under Bowden with four outright wins. I think they make it five on Saturday and end their season on a positive note.
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