Two winning weeks in a row. Can we make it three? Home teams in BOLD.
Last Week: 5-2
Overall: 33-30
Boston College +10 Duke
2022 has been a disappointing season for Boston College. The Eagles are 2-6, have beaten one FBS team, and lost to Connecticut last week. The Eagles were not expected to contend for an ACC title, but since joining the conference in 2005, they had only failed to reach six wins three times. Six victories is nigh impossible now with two ranked teams remaining on the schedule plus Notre Dame. While Boston College has disappointed, Duke has overachieved in Mike Elko's first season. After going 1-17 in ACC play over David Cutcliffe's final two seasons, the Blue Devils have a .500 conference record and are one win away from bowl eligibility. While Duke has been the better team in 2022, asking them to lay double digits on the road might be a bridge too far. Duke has played four road games this season, and while they have won half of them, they were double digit underdogs twice (Northwestern and Miami) and a touchdown underdog in one (Kansas). In the lone road game where they were favored (Georgia Tech), they lost. The Eagles were field goal favorites at Georgia Tech (which I'll reiterate, they lost) and now a month later, they are double digit road favorites. Boston College does not have a great track record as a home underdog under Jeff Hafley, posting a 5-4 ATS mark in the role. However, all four teams that covered against the Eagles were ranked in the AP Poll at the time of the game (Notre Dame in 2020, NC State and Wake Forest in 2021, and Clemson in 2022). You'll note that Duke does not have a little number next to their name. Boston College has struggled mightily on the road, averaging just over ten points per game. However, they have been competent at home, averaging nearly twenty points per game against FBS opponents in Chestnut Hill. The Eagles will put up a fight on Friday night and cover this number.
Army +7 Air Force (@Arlington)
2022 has been a disappointing season for the service academies. Navy is 3-5 and staring down the barrel of a third straight losing season. Army is 3-4 and has a chance to get to bowl eligibility, but the Black Knights are just 1-4 against FBS opponents. Finally, while Air Force has the best record of the bunch at 5-3, they have lost three times as a betting favorite, including twice as a double digit favorite. The Mountain West is down this season, so its quite possible the Falcons end up being favored in every game! While each service academy has disappointed this season, I expect a quality effort from both teams. I think the handicap on this game is simple. These teams are intimately familiar with each other, playing each season and running offenses that branch from the same option tree. That familiarity typically leads to lower scoring games which introduces more variance and favors the underdog. In addition, while Air Force is 10-5 against Army under Troy Calhoun, they have dropped four of the past five as Army has gotten its act together under Jeff Monken. The underdog has also covered six straight in this series with four outright wins. Take the Black Knights and the touchdown.
Missouri +1 Kentucky
One of the more incredible stories that has played out over the past two years in college football that has received zero national attention is the emergence of the Missouri defense. Last season, in their ten games against Power Five opponents, Missouri allowed 6.56 yards per play. Those ghastly numbers included some defensive improvement down the stretch. Over their final three games, Missouri allowed 5.48 yards per play. I was not expecting much improvement in 2022. After they lost 40-12 to Kansas State in their second game, I didn't expect to be paying much attention to Missouri this season. However, despite the blowout loss, Missouri did hold Kansas State to their second lowest season total in both total offense (336 yards) and yards per play (5.33). The Tigers were done in by turnovers (-3 margin in the game) and a Kansas State specialty (non-offensive touchdowns). Once SEC play began, the Tigers continued to clamp down on opposing offenses, but could not end up on the right side of the scoreboard. They lost their first three conference games by 14 total points, but held Auburn, Georgia, and Florida to just 5.21 yards per play. Once the schedule eased up, the defense played even better, holding Vanderbilt and South Carolina to 24 total points and under four yards per play. On the season, three SEC defenses have held their opponents below five yards per play in conference games. Two are obvious (Alabama and Georgia) and the third is Missouri. That defense will be severely tested next week in Knoxville, but the Tigers have a great chance to move within a game of bowl eligibility against Kentucky. While the Wildcats have a quarterback that some believe will be a high draft round pick, he passed for 98 yards last week against a weak Tennessee secondary. The Kentucky program is in a much better position than they were when Mark Stoops took over nearly ten years ago (time flies), but they are not used to laying points on the road in the SEC. In fact it has only happened five previous time in his tenure. The Wildcats are 2-3 ATS in that small sample and have lost two of the games outright, including two years ago at Missouri. The Tigers have the better offense, the better defense, and are playing at home, so you better take the points.
Iowa +3 Purdue
This Big 10 nooner is a clash between the resistible force and the infinitely movable object. Purdue has the worst per play defense of any Big 10 team in conference play. Meanwhile, Iowa's offensive struggles have been documented all season, but the Hawkeyes actually rank ahead of both Indiana and Rutgers in yards per play among Big 10 teams. A lot of that is due to their performance last week against Northwestern when they scored a season high 33 points and averaged over six yards per play for the first time all season and just the second time in the past two seasons! With another bad defense on the docket, can Iowa put up back to back 30 point games? That is probably too much to ask, but I expect a solid offensive performance against Purdue. The over/under is currently 39.5, so the spread implies a final score of roughly 21-18 in favor of Purdue. I expect Iowa to eclipse that team total and their defense is very capable of holding Purdue below their implied point total as well. Despite having faced both Michigan and Ohio State (best per play offenses in the Big 10), Iowa has the second best per play defense in the conference. Couple that with the fact that Purdue has struggled as a home favorite under Jeff Brohm (4-10 ATS as a home favorite versus Big 10 teams) and the Hawkeyes are the play.
Give Minnesota credit. If you are a bad football team, they will curb stomp you into oblivion. In their five victories, they have outscored their opponents 214-24. Even if we remove their FCS scrimmage against Western Illinois, their four FBS wins have come by a cumulative score of 152-14. Those four teams (Colorado, Michigan State, New Mexico State, and Rutgers) sport a combined record of 11-21, with Rutgers owning the best record (4-4). On the surface, and certainly by the spread, this seems destined to be another blowout. However, unlike those four teams, Nebraska can actually move the ball. Illinois held Nebraska to nine points last week, but Nebraska moved the ball as well as anyone has against the Illini this season. Unfortunately, they also committed four turnovers, which has been a running theme for the team this season. Nebraska has committed 17 turnovers this season (118th nationally) and in Big 10 play, their margin of -6 is a big reason for their losing record. Turnovers, while often a characteristic of bad teams, can be highly volatile, so just because the Cornhuskers have turned the ball over frequently thus far does not mean they will continue to do so. Besides being turnover prone, Nebraska also has a bad defense, so I don't expect them to generate many stops against the Gophers. Minnesota was laying about fourteen points last week at home against Rutgers. Now, they are laying more than that on the road against a similarly power rated team? I know Nebraska quarterback Casey Thompson could miss the game with an elbow injury, but reports list his status as day to day. If he plays, you are getting about a touchdown of value in this spread. If he misses the game, Nebraska will start either Chubba Purdy or Logan Smothers, two quarterbacks with limited experience. While that can certainly be detrimental to Nebraska covering this number, it also makes the game more volatile. Is Minnesota prepared for either of those quarterbacks? How good is either quarterback? Your guess is as good as mine. Uncertainty can be bad, but in this case, I think you can benefit from the uncertainty surrounding the Nebraska quarterback position. Take the Cornhuskers and the points.
Louisiana-Lafayette +5 Troy
The Troy Trojans are 6-2 in Jon Sumrall's first season and with a victory over the Ragin' Cajuns, they will have a tight grip on the Sun Belt West. The Trojans lone Sun Belt defeat came in dramatic fashion against Appalachian State. The Trojans allowed 32 points to the Mountaineers, including six on the games final play. However, since that loss, the Trojans have allowed 37 total points in their next four Sun Belt games (all wins). Defensively, Troy has been just as impressive on a per play basis, holding Sun Belt opponents to a conference best 4.31 yards per play. If they can escape Lafayette, their final two conference games are against teams with a combined 2-8 conference record (Arkansas State and Louisiana-Monroe), so Troy fans can probably make Sun Belt Championship Game plans. Louisiana-Lafayette is also led by a first year head coach. Former quarterback Michael Desormeaux took over for Billy Napier, and while a decline was expected, the the Ragin's Cajuns have lost more Sun Belt games this season (3) than they did in Napier's final three seasons (2). While the Ragin' Cajuns have declined, they are still pretty tough at home. They are 3-1 in home games and have covered in all three of their FBS home games. Their lone home loss came to South Alabama on a last second field goal in a game where they entered as a touchdown underdog. Meanwhile, although Troy is 6-2, they have only been favored in three games. The Trojans have won games when the betting market did not expect it. This is also the first time they have been favored in a road game this season. I think the betting market has oscillated too far in their favor. In Troy's four game Sun Belt winning streak, they have averaged just over seventeen points per game. Their defense has played great in that span, but the Trojans have not been able to roll over teams. I expect another close, low-scoring game on Saturday, so I'll grab the points with the Ragin' Cajuns.
Cal +21.5 Southern Cal
This line has crossed a key number since opening at 18.5 and despite their struggles, that makes the Bears too enticing to pass up. I understand the anti-Cal sentiment in the market. The Bears have lost five of six games since a 2-0 start, including a listless loss at Colorado. While five losses in six games is never a great look, three of those defeats came by exactly a touchdown (Colorado, Notre Dame, and Washington). Obviously, losing by a touchdown to Colorado is terrible, but the Bears were feisty against two solid teams (Notre Dame and Washington). In fact, the Bears have been feisty as an underdog for the duration of the Justin Wilcox era. Under Wilcox, the Bears are 15-5 ATS as a road underdog, including 7-3 ATS as a double digit road underdog. The Cal defense is not up to its usual standard under Wilcox, but have you looked at the defense on the other sideline? Southern Cal is allowing over six yards per play to Pac-12 opponents and their largest margin of victory against a Power Five team this season is seventeen points (Arizona State). The Trojans dominated Rice in their opener and beat Fresno by 28 in a game where the Bulldogs lost their starting quarterback to injury. They have done all this while avoiding and forcing turnovers at an historic clip. The Trojans have committed an amazing one turnover all season while forcing seventeen, with many coming while opponents were in prime scoring position. Turnovers are highly variable and volatile so its likely we see regression in that department over the final third of the season. This spread is too inflated, so despite my misgivings, I have to back Cal.
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