Three winning weeks in a row have us with our best winning percentage of the season. There are a lot of road teams and ugly dogs on the card this week, so tread lightly. Home teams in BOLD.
Last Week: 5-2
Overall: 38-32
Jim Mora Jr., our nation turns its lonely eyes to you (woo woo woo, woo woo woo). The Huskies appear to be the only thing standing between Liberty and a 11-1 regular season finish. Following their trip to Storrs, the Flames host Virginia Tech and New Mexico State. I hate Liberty and everything the university stands for. Hypocrisy permeates throughout the program, from the former president of the university to the current head coach of the football team. Perhaps my emotions have gotten the better of me in making this pick, but I think the Huskies have a real shot to extinguish the Flames. A month ago, Liberty barely escaped at home against Gardner-Webb. The Bulldogs are 4-5, but they have put a scare into both Coastal Carolina and Liberty this season. In their two games since that harrowing escape, Liberty has beaten two legitimate programs in BYU and Arkansas. Credit Hugh Freeze for adapting his game plan. Against BYU, the Flames took advantage of a bad BYU run defense in accumulating 300 yards on the ground at over six yards a pop. Following a bye, Liberty took advantage of a poor Arkansas secondary and averaged nine yards per pass. They also held Arkansas without a touchdown through the first three quarters before the Hogs woke up in the fourth. Liberty allowed two fourth quarter touchdowns, but held Arkansas out of the endzone on a two-point conversion attempt to seal the win. Hugh Freeze is a great coach, but this has letdown written all over it, especially with him openly angling for jobs in his old conference. Meanwhile, Connecticut needs one more win to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2015 (and second time since their Fiesta Bowl appearance in 2010). When not facing ranked Power Five opponents, the Huskies have fared pretty well this season, winning five of seven games while allowing fourteen points per game. The Huskies probably don't have enough firepower to win the game outright, but they are feisty enough to cover this number.
LSU -3.5 Arkansas
This is a spot where LSU may be primed for a letdown, but I am going to back the Tigers. While their victory against Alabama might ordinarily make them overlook their next opponent, LSU still has work to do to win the SEC West. Ole Miss only has one loss, so the Tigers may need to sweep their remaining SEC games (Arkansas and Texas A&M) to secure a trip to Atlanta. And of course, Alabama is always lurking should the Tigers potentially slip up in both games. I think a seasoned (and authoritarian) coach like Brian Kelly will have the Tigers prepared in a tricky road spot. LSU should be able to move the ball against an Arkansas defense that is second worst in the SEC in yards allowed per play (bested only by Vandy). Their pass defense is among the worst in the country, allowing nearly nine yards per throw. The Arkansas offense, especially with a healthy KJ Jefferson is potent, but LSU should be able to outlast them in a shootout. The Tigers have fared well in their past few visits to Arkansas, winning four of the past five, and if they needed additional motivation besides an SEC title and pipe dream of a spot in the College Football Playoff, Arkansas won in Baton Rouge last season, so revenge might be on their minds. Take the Tigers to cover this short number on the road.
Navy +16 Notre Dame @ Baltimore
Notre Dame has had an odd season under first year head coach Marcus Freeman. The Irish are 3-0 against ACC teams, inflicting the only losses (thus far) on the likely ACC Championship Game participants. They are 3-3 against everyone else, with home losses to Marshall and Stanford. Fresh off their biggest victory of the season, they are in a prime letdown spot against a bad Navy team. While the Midshipmen have struggled offensively for a third consecutive season, their run defense has been pretty good. Navy is thirteenth nationally in yards allowed per rush. By contrast, they are bottom ten nationally in yards allowed per pass attempt. Fortunately for the Midshipmen, Notre Dame prefers to keep the ball on the ground, as they rank eighteenth nationally in rushing attempts per game and 115th in pass attempts per game. Like a perfect puzzle piece, Navy's defensive strength matches up well with Notre Dame's preferred offensive philosophy. As I mentioned, the Navy offense has struggled, averaging about 22 points per game, so they probably lack the firepower to win this game outright. Covering more than two touchdowns though? That's another story. One final thing to keep in mind when handicapping Navy is to look how they have performed ATS in their bad seasons. Under Ken Niumatalolo, Navy has had five bad seasons (including 2022). Unfortunately, four of those five bad seasons have come since 2018. However, even in those bad seasons, Navy has still done well in covering as a road or neutral site underdog. The Midshipmen are 15-6 ATS in such games, including a perfect 4-0 this season. Notre Dame is riding high after their victory against Clemson last week, but while the Irish managed 35 points, they scored two non-offensive touchdowns to buoy their point total. Take Navy to keep this one close.
Boston College +19 NC State
Every Sunday or Monday after the college football slate is over, I head to cfbstats and peruse the numbers for each conference. I did a double take when looking at the ACC. NC State, currently the seventeenth best team in the nation according to the latest AP Poll, ranks last in the ACC in both yards per play and yards allowed per play. How have the Wolfpack managed to win three of five conference games despite their down by down struggles? The Wolfpack are +4 in turnovers in ACC games (+6 in their four games not involving Clemson). They have also made all 13 of their field goal attempts in conference play. Opponents have not fared horribly in kicks, having made five of seven, but those eight additional field goals are a net of 24 total points by my math. Finally, NC State has won the close ones, beating Florida State by two and Virginia Tech by one. Boston College has also been pretty bad on both sides of the ball in 2022, but should they be catching nearly three touchdowns? The Eagles have been grounded on the road this season, averaging just over ten points per game (as compared to just over 22 per game at home against FBS opponents), but how many points do you expect NC State to score? The Wolfpack are averaging a shade over 27 points per game on the season, but if we remove their FCS game and their contest against Connecticut, the Wolfpack have averaged just north of 21 points per game. Can Boston College score more than ten points against NC State? If so, they can cover this inflated spread. Finally, recent history suggests Boston College is the right side. NC State is 4-4 against the Eagles under Dave Doeren, but the Wolfpack have been favored in seven of those games. In fact, they are 1-2 against the Eagles in Raleigh and 0-3 ATS. While Boston College may be led by a quarterback making his first ever road start, let's not forget NC State will be led by a quarterback making his second career start as well. MJ Morris has looked good in the first two games he has seen significant action, but he is still a true freshman with limited experience. Take Boston College and the points.
Florida State -7 Syracuse
After a 6-0 start, the Orange have fallen back to earth. Despite being outplayed, Syracuse was in the game at Clemson thanks to a long fumble return touchdown. They followed that up by losing at home to Notre Dame and then lost a snoozefest with their backup quarterback at Pitt. The Orange still have Boston College on the schedule, so they still have a real shot at seven regular season wins. However, I think the optimism that was present in upstate New York last month is about to fall by the wayside (if it hasn't already). While Syracuse is presently in a funk, Florida State snapped out of their midseason funk. The Seminoles lost three consecutive games after a 4-0 start, but have the per play profile of a dominant team. They have outgained ACC opponents by more than two yards per play! They moved the ball well in all three losses (averaging 6.29 yards per play), but glitched out on third and occasionally fourth down. The Seminoles converted 16 of 37 third downs (43%) in those games and were two of six on fourth down, including a one for four showing against Clemson. Despite averaging under five yards per play (4.90), their three opponents converted third downs at an almost identical rate (44%) and were slightly more efficient on fourth down (four of six). Their poor showing in those three games obscured the fact that Florida State may in fact, be back. It could all go sideways in the former Carrier Dome, but I think these teams are trending in different ways and despite the relatively large number, I'll back the Seminoles.
California +14 Oregon State
At this point, Cal is almost an auto-play when they are catching double digits. The Bears covered as big underdogs against Southern Cal last week bringing their ATS mark as a road underdog under Justin Wilcox to 16-5, including 8-3 as a double digit road underdog. The Bears were not able to win the game outright, so their bowl hopes are on life support as they have lost six of seven. Asking them to win in Corvallis is probably too much, but I think they can keep it close against the best per play defense in the Pac-12. The Beavers typically won with offense under head coach and former quarterback Jonathan Smith. During his first four seasons in charge, the Beavers were 3-20 when they failed to score at least 30 points. The Beavers still have a losing record in such contests this season, but they are a respectable 2-3. Oregon State has a weird statistical profile as they have a great per play defense, but rarely generate negative plays. The Beavers have twelve sacks on the season (tied for 121st nationally) and 45 tackles for loss (tied for 100th nationally). Cal's offensive line has struggled this season, allowing 28 sacks thus far (tied for 111th nationally). The Beavers will be in the backfield more than usual, but their defensive front will not dominate Cal's weakest link like some good defenses might. To cover big spreads, you have to score a lot of points. And that is not something Oregon State has done since Pac-12 play started. In non-conference games against two solid G5 teams (Boise State and Fresno State) and an FCS team, the Beavers averaged nearly 46 points per game. However, they have topped 30 points in Pac-12 play once and that came against Colorado. In their five other Pac-12 games, they have averaged just under 21 points per game. They won't score enough to cover this number.
San Diego State +3 San Jose State
After a rough start to the season, Brady Hoke has righted the ship at San Diego State. The Aztecs opened the year 2-3, losing to two Pac-12 teams they defeated last season, and getting blown out by Boise State. Since that Boise State loss, the Aztecs have won three of four and if not for a miraculous last minute comeback by Fresno State would be riding a four-game streak and in control of the West Division of the Mountain West. Meanwhile, San Jose State has struggled over the past month. I know the team tragically lost Camdan McWright three weeks ago, but their struggles started prior to that. Through their first five games, the Spartans were 4-1, with their only loss coming at Auburn. They had dominated their two Mountain West opponents, beating Wyoming and UNLV by a combined fifty points. Then they managed just ten points in a road loss to a Fresno State team still missing their starting quarterback. Their non-conference game with New Mexico State the next week was canceled due to the death McWright. They returned to play with home games against two of the worst teams in FBS, Nevada and Colorado State. While they ultimately prevailed, they trailed Nevada in the fourth quarter and were up only one score on Colorado State in the fourth. Something is wrong with the Spartans and they should not be laying points on the road. San Diego State has won eight of the nine matchups since San Jose State joined the Mountain West in 2013. Their lone loss came in the pandemic season of 2020. The Spartans are 3-2 ATS against the Aztecs under head coach Brent Brennan, but they have been at least a touchdown underdog in all five games. Covering as a dog is a lot different than covering as a favorite, especially on the road. The wrong team is favored in this spot.
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