2022 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: Big 10

Last week we looked at how Big 10 teams fared in terms of yards per play. his week, we turn our attention to how the season played out in terms of the Adjusted Pythagorean Record, or APR. For an in-depth look at APR, click here. If you didn’t feel like clicking, here is the Reader’s Digest version. APR looks at how well a team scores and prevents touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns, field goals, extra points, and safeties are excluded. The ratio of offensive touchdowns to touchdowns allowed is converted into a winning percentage. Pretty simple actually.

Once again, here are the 2022 Big 10 standings.

And here are the APR standings with conference rank in offensive touchdowns, touchdowns allowed, and APR in parentheses. This includes conference games only with the championship game excluded.

Finally, Big 10 teams are sorted by the difference between their actual number of wins and their expected number of wins according to APR.

Purdue significantly exceeded their APR while their division mates Illinois and Minnesota underachieved. Purdue also overachieved relative to their YPP numbers and we went over some reasons for that last week. Illinois was probably the best team in the Big 10 West, but they finished 1-4 in one-score conference games. If Illinois was not the best team in the Big 10 West, Minnesota may have been. The Gophers actually had a winning record in one-score conference games (2-1), but they were absurdly dominant in their other three league wins (won by a combined 86 points) which boosted their APR. 

Purdue's Historical Season

Purdue became the ninth Big 10 team to play in the conference's title game in 2022 (Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Minnesota, and Rutgers are the five still waiting for their first appearance) and in the process became just the fourth BCS/Power Five conference title game participant to allow more touchdowns than they scored in league play. 

Purdue was unable to join Virginia Tech and actually capture their conference's crown despite allowing more touchdowns than they scored. 

We try not to give short shrift to the Group of Five around these parts, so I would be remiss if I left out the non-BCS/Group of Five teams that qualified for their conference's championship game despite allowing more touchdowns than they scored. 

It's a small sample, but the Group of Five teams that allowed more touchdowns than they scored actually won two of three league title games. 

How did the other six teams that accomplished this feat before Purdue perform the next season? It's a mixed bag, but a few of the teams enjoyed continue success.

East Carolina and Bowling Green actually won Conference USA and the MAC the following season while UCLA once again qualified for the Pac-12 Championship Game. Northern Illinois and Tennessee fell on hard times, but Purdue fans can take solace their team is not doomed to tumble in the Big 10 standings next season.