First Half Point Differential: The 2022 Power Five

Last week, we looked at first half point differential in the Group of Five to try and identify some teams that might surprise and or disappoint us this season. This week, we do the same with the Power Five. 

Atlantic Coast Conference

The 2022 ACC standings. 

1HPD in ACC play (title game excluded).

Much like 2021, no ACC team dominated the first half of games in 2022. The team that did come out on top has gotten quite a bit of hype heading into 2023. Can they live up to it? Elsewhere in first half play, Duke improved by 191 point in 1HPD. The Blue Devils finished dead last in 2021, trailing at the half by an average of twenty points per game (-160). Under first year head coach Mike Elko, Duke finished fourth in the ACC in 1HPD in 2022!

Big 10

The 2022 Big 10 standings. 

1HPD in Big 10 play (title game excluded). 

Penn State narrowly edged Ohio State for the 1HPD crown in 2022. However, it was the team that finished third in 1HPD (and pretty far behind the Nittany Lions and Buckeyes I might add), that ended up winning the Big 10 for a second straight season. The Wolverines opponent in the Big 10 Championship Game (Purdue) actually finished fifth (out of seven teams) in their own division, but made the plays when it counted to qualify for their first conference title game. 

Big 12

The 2022 Big 12 standings. 

1HPD in Big 12 play (title game excluded). 

Texas finished with the best 1HPD in Big 12 play, but the Longhorns dropped close conference games to Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and TCU to finish third in the standings and miss out on a trip to the conference title game. The bottom of the standings were a familiar site with Kansas finishing last for yet another season despite qualifying for their first bowl game since the George W. Bush administration. 

Pac-12

The 2022 Pac-12 standings. 

1HPD in Pac-12 play (title game excluded). 

The second (Utah) and third (Southern Cal) place teams in 1HPD met for the Pac-12 title with the second place team capturing their second straight league title. Oregon was the most dominant first half Pac-12 team, but their collapse against arch rival Oregon State cost them a spot in the league championship game. 

SEC

The 2022 SEC standings. 

1HPD in SEC play (title game excluded).

The Bulldogs were not quite as dominant as they were in 2021 (+161 1HPD), but they once again finished first by a healthy margin and managed to avoid an upset in the SEC Championship Game. The quality of their opponent probably had a lot to do with that. LSU finished ninth in the SEC and sixth in their own division in 1HPD!

In the YPP and APR offseason recaps, I sort the teams in each conference by how much they over or under-performed relative to their expected record. Since all the Power Five conferences are grouped together in this post, I am only going to list those that significantly over or under-performed (a difference of at least .200). We'll start with the overachievers.

All five overachievers qualified for their respective conference title games. Michigan and TCU had especially low first half point differentials for unbeaten teams. Michigan only led by double digits in two of their nine Big 10 conference games. They also trailed at the half in two games and were tied in another, but managed to come back and win each. TCU only trailed at halftime in two games, but in both, they were behind by double digits. The Horned Frogs came back to win both (Oklahoma State and Kansas State). Had they lost either, the Big 12 would likely have been shut out of the College Football Playoff. LSU trailed at the half in five of their eight SEC games and did not lead a single conference game by more than a touchdown at halftime! Like Michigan and TCU, Clemson also finished unbeaten in conference play despite middling first half numbers. The Tigers did at least lead by double digits in half their conference games. They only trailed at the half in one conference game, but it was by double digits (Syracuse). Purdue was tied or trailing at the half in two thirds (six) of their Big 10 games! 

And now the underachievers. 

Washington State had a few dominant first halves to skew their numbers somewhat. The Cougars led by double digits at the half in three conference games (+78 1HPD in those games). In their other six Pac-12 games, they were outscored by six total points in the first half. Virginia Tech was not a good team in 2022, but the Hokies were winning or within a field goal at the half in five of their seven ACC games (eighth game against Virginia was canceled). They only managed to win one of the five. Texas led by double digits at halftime in five of their nine Big 12 games and led by at least a touchdown in two others. They also only trailed by by five combined points in their other two conference games. In two seasons under Steve Sarkisian, the Longhorns are 4-8 in one-score Big 12 games (5-1 in multi-score games). If their luck or clutch play does not improve in 2023, Sark may not get to coach a game in the SEC. Texas A&M led three of their eight conference games at halftime and trailed at the half by a field goal or less in three others, but only managed two SEC wins (their fewest since joining the league). Iowa State trailed at the half in eight of their nine Big 12 games, but they were competitive in each (never trailed by more than a touchdown) until the season finale when TCU was up by 27 points. 

Thanks once again for your continued patronage. I'll be back in a few weeks with a Vegas betting recap and then it will time for the season to start. Hooray!

First Half Point Differential: The 2022 Group of Five

After a brief respite and a throwback post, we return to contemporary team analysis. This week we'll examine First Half Point Differential (1HPD) in conference play for the Group of Five from this past season. For the uninitiated, 1HPD is a very complicated advanced statistic. It is the number of points by which a team outscored (or was outscored) by its opponents in the first half. The theory behind this stat is that teams that pull off a lot of second half comebacks are operating on razor thin margins and may be in for regression the next season. Similarly, teams that have good first half margins, but end up losing more games than we might expect have a solid foundation to build upon and may see improvement the following season. With that out of the way, lets get started. 

American Athletic Conference

The 2022 AAC standings.

1HPD in AAC play (title game excluded). 

The first and third best teams in 1HPD met in the conference title game with the top team hosting and winning. If you think a 1HPD of +64 is relatively low for the top ranked team in a conference you would be correct. However, this was a general trend across the Group of Five in 2022. No team outside the Power Five finished with a positive 1HPD in triple digits. 

Conference USA

The 2022 Conference USA standings.

1HPD in Conference USA play (title game excluded). 

Western Kentucky finished with the best 1HPD, but it was the teams ranked second (UTSA) and third (North Texas) that ended up playing for the league title. The Hilltoppers lost to both the Roadrunners and Mean Green and trailed at the half in both games. At the bottom of the standings, Florida International finished with a IHPD nearly twice as bad as the second worst team (Charlotte). The Panthers trailed by double digits at halftime in six of their eight conference games (average deficit of 27 points). Give the Panthers credit though. They managed to win both games where they led at the half (Charlotte and Louisiana Tech). 

Mid-American

The 2022 MAC standings. 

1HPD in MAC play (title game excluded). 

The top two teams in 1HPD faced off in the MAC Championship Game. The top ranked team dealt with some injury misfortune and the second best team ended up winning the title. Elsewhere, Northern Illinois put up decent numbers for a team that finished last in 1HPD.

Mountain West

The 2022 Mountain West standings. 

1HPD in Mountain West play (title game excluded). 

Like most of the other Group of Five conferences, the top of the 1HPD standings looked pretty similar to the actual standings. The top ranked team (Fresno State) beat the second ranked team (Boise State) in the conference title game. Despite winning the Mountain West, Fresno State actually trailed at the half in four of their eight conference games. However, three of the deficits were a by field goal or less. The top four teams in 1HPD were indistinguishable with twelve points separating Fresno and San Diego State. 

Sun Belt

The 2022 Sun Belt standings.

1HPD in Sun Belt play (title game excluded). 

Yeah. The top of the Sun Belt looks weird. The top two teams in 1HPD (Georgia State and Louisiana-Lafayette) finished a combined 7-9 in conference play. Meanwhile, the teams ranked third (Troy) and fifth (Coastal Carolina) in 1HPD met in the Sun Belt Championship Game. 

In the YPP and APR offseason recaps, I sort the teams in each conference by how much they over or under-performed relative to their expected record. Since all the Group of Five conferences are grouped together in this post, I am only going to list those that significantly over or under-performed (a difference of at least .200). We'll start with the overachievers.

South Alabama and Troy finished tied at the top of the West Division of the Sun Belt, losing just two conference games between them. However, South Alabama was tied or trailing at the half in five of their eight conference games. Troy was a little more dominant, but still trailed at the half in two of their conference games. Between the Jaguars and Trojans, Boise State was the second biggest over-performer relative to their 1HPD. Boise State finished unbeaten in conference play, but did not post many dominant first halves. The Broncos also trailed at the half in two of their conference games. Bowling Green finished with a winning MAC record for the first time since 2015. They managed to win all the games where they were not TKO'd in the first half. In all three of their conference losses, the Falcons trailed by at least 20 points at halftime. We talked earlier about how bad Florida International was in 1HPD relative to their brethren in Conference USA. The Panthers played well in exactly two of their conference games in 2022, but they managed to win both. Like Boise State, UTSA finished with an unblemished league record, and while they were leading by double digits at halftime in three of those games, they also trailed at the half in two of them. 

And now the underachievers. 

A few weeks ago, I touched on how New Mexico struggled scoring touchdowns in the second half of their Mountain West games. The Lobos led at the half in three of their conference games, but finished without a single league win. Arkansas State led at the half in five of their eight Sun Belt games. In those five contests, they were outscored in the second half by nearly fourteen points per game. Georgia State also led at the half in five of their eight Sun Belt games and were tied at the half in another. In those six contests, the Panthers were outscored by nearly eight points per game in the second half. UTEP led by double digits at halftime in three of their eight conference games. They were tied in another and trailed by three points or less in three more. UTEP should have finished much better than 3-5 and with the better teams in the conference moving on to the AAC, I think the Miners are a darkhorse contender heading into 2023. Akron only led at the half in two conference games, but their overall 1HPD was not befitting a team that finished 1-7. Similarly, Nevada only led at the half in one of their conference games, but their overall 1HPD was not befitting a team that finished winless in conference.  Temple led at the half in three of their eight conference games, but only managed to win one of them.  

Thanks for reading. We'll be back in two weeks with a look at first half point differential in the Power Five.