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Central Michigan +14 Michigan State
When the epitaph is written on Mel Tucker's coaching career, how much of an outlier will 2021 be? For perspective, Tucker is 23-21 as a head coach at Colorado and Michigan State. However, outside of that 2021 season when the Spartans finished 11-2 with a Peach Bowl victory and top ten ranking, his teams are 12-19 with zero winning seasons. Tucker certainly capitalized on that 2021 campaign, if not on the recruiting trail, at last at the bank. No shade to the man. My dream is to be standing in the general vicinity when some good shit happens and subsequently get all the credit for something that may have been largely out of my control. If Tucker has designs on getting the Spartans back to a bowl, he will need to do some work in the early portion of the non-con. Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State are on the conference slate and future conference mate Washington pays a visit to East Lansing in a few weeks. The Spartans are 4-0 against Group of Five and FCS opponents under Tucker, winning each game by double digits. However, I don't think Central Michigan will be your typical tomato can the Spartans can easily knock over. Jim McElwain enters his fifth season at Central Michigan and eighth overall as a Group of Five head coach (he spent three seasons at Colorado State a decade ago before getting the Florida job). His charges have performed well against Power Five opponents. At Colorado State, his teams were 4-1 ATS against Power Five schools (3-2 straight up) in the regular season. At Central Michigan, his teams have yet to win a game outright against a Power Five opponent in the regular season, but are 6-2 ATS. And lest we forget, he has beaten Washington State in bowl games in the american southwest at both of his G5 stops. Michigan State has more talent, but they are unsettled at the most important position on the field. I expect the Spartans to try to run the ball at the Chippewas, which while likely successful, will keep the clock moving and result in fewer possessions. Central Michigan will probably do their share of running as well, particularly if Bert Emanuel Jr. wins the starting quarterback job. Even if he doesn't, I expect Emanuel to see significant action in some gimmick packages. The Chippewas will be able to score enough points to keep this within two touchdowns.
Georgia Tech +7.5 Louisville (@ Atlanta)
This game is at Mercedes-Benz Stadium and not historic Bobby Dodd Stadium, so its not technically a home game for the Yellow Jackets. That being said, Georgia Tech is in good position to cover this number for a few reasons. Louisville has been getting some offseason love as sleeper team, but that has more to do with their schedule and upgrade at head coach rather than drastic improvement in their team composition. The Cardinals were inconsistent last season and for the duration of the Scott Satterfield regime, but they did lose some significant talent off last year's team. Quarterback Malik Cunningham was a dynamic dual threat and the defensive created a ton of havoc with Yasir Abdullah and YaYa Diaby combining for nearly 30 tackles for loss. Abullah and Diaby were both selected in April's NFL Draft and Cunningham is trying to catch on with the New England Patriots. Jack Plummer will be replacing Cunningham at quarterback, and while Plummer has plenty of experience, he has been slightly above average throughout his college career. And all of his value is tied up in his passing. He lacks any playmaking ability with his legs, having accumulated negative rushing yards in his college career. I expect Jeff Brohm to have success at Louisville, but I don't think he should be laying more than a touchdown in his first game against a conference opponent on the (semi) road. Plus, if you examine Brohm's career at Purdue, his teams performed much better in the underdog role. Over his six seasons in West Lafayette, his teams were just 13-19 ATS as a favorite in the regular season, but were 21-11 ATS as an underdog. Finally, while I didn't love the Brent Key hire, and gave some reasons for that in an offseason post, you have to acknowledge that he shored up the Georgia Tech special teams and made the Yellow Jackets a competent Power Five team. In fact, the Yellow Jackets were 5-1 ATS as an underdog under Key. I don't think Georgia Tech is good enough to get to a bowl game this season, but they will be a tough out against the non-elite teams they play this season.
Bowling Green +10 Liberty
Last season, in mid-November, Liberty was 8-1 and fresh off a road win against an SEC team. At 19th in the AP Poll, the Flames were the second highest ranked Group of Five team. Thankfully, one of the most hateable universities in the world wheezed to the finish line, losing their final three regular season games while helping Connecticut and New Mexico State gain bowl eligibility. They lost their bowl game for good measure and finished 8-5. In the midst of the skid, Hugh Freeze bolted for Auburn and the Flames selected Jamey Chadwell from Coastal Carolina to be their new head coach. Chadwell has a solid track record as a head coach, but unfortunately, he was not able to bring Grayson McCall with him from Conway. Coastal's performance under Chadwell with and without McCall should make Liberty fans a little wary. The Flames play an absurdly easy schedule in 2023, but the quarterback talent on the roster is a definite downgrade from what Chadwell was working with a few hours south. I expect the Flames to be contenders in Conference USA, but they won't be running roughshod over the league. And I think they will have some trouble getting margin in their opener. Like most new coaches, Chadwell will be bringing his own system to Liberty and while the Flames have had all offseason to practice, live action is different. Not that Bowling Green presents a formidable opponent, but the Falcons have been more competitive of late under Scott Loeffler. Bowling Green began Loeffler's tenure with a 2-16 record against FBS opponents, but they are a more respectable 9-12 since. That competitiveness has translated to a very good mark at the betting window. Since the start of 2021, the Falcons are 5-2 ATS as a road underdog against Group of Five opponents. The Falcons figure to have plenty of losses on their schedule this season, including this one. However, they will not go gentle into that good midday.
Colorado +20.5 TCU
I'm not sold on Coach Prime as an FBS head coach just yet, but I think there is value on the Buffaloes in this spot for a few reasons. For starters, these teams opened the 2022 season in Boulder and TCU was favored by 14 points. Obviously, TCU ended up being much better than we thought, advancing all the way to the College Football Playoff and eventually the national title game. Meanwhile, Colorado was much worse than we thought, finishing 1-11 and losing ten games by double digits. If you dole out three points for homefield advantage, that means this spread is about one point higher than the spread in last season's opener. I don't think you will get an argument from anyone that this TCU team is not as good as last season's. The Horned Frogs had eight players picked in the most recent iteration of the NFL Draft, including their leading receiver, leading rusher, starting quarterback, and top sacker. Meanwhile, its almost impossible to quantify how good Colorado will be in 2023 thanks to their massive roster turnover, but they almost certainly will be better than last season, especially early on. Depth will likely be an issue as the season progresses, but the Buffaloes should be plenty feisty in the opener and anxious to show the nation what they can be. Take Colorado to cover this massive number and potentially set the bar too high for Deion's Power Five debut season.
Colorado State +12 Washington State
Life moves pretty fast. Exactly six years ago, Colorado State opened their brand new stadium in Week Zero against a Pac-12 team. Coming off consecutive 7-6 campaigns, the Rams dominated Oregon State and appeared to be your Mountain West favorite heading into conference play. After a 4-0 league start, the Rams dropped three of their final four regular season games, including an absurd home loss to Boise State. They also dropped the bowl game to finish 7-6 for the third consecutive year. The bottom fell out in 2018 and Mike Bobo was fired after the 2019 season. The Rams made the curious decision to hire Steve Addazio and mercifully fired him after a 4-12 record across two seasons. They poached Jay Norvell from fellow Mountain West member Nevada and won three games in 2022. For those keeping score at home, the Rams are 14-38 over the past five seasons. However, if you squinted, you could see improvement at the end of last year. After an embarrassing home loss to Sacramento State dropped them to 0-4, the Rams actually covered six of their eight conference games. Along the way, they played solid defense, holding five league opponents below twenty points. The offense never got going, failing to score twenty points in any game last season! However, I expect a big second year leap for the Rams. At Norvell's previous stop, Nevada finished 3-9 in his first season, but won seven regular season games in his second. Colorado State may not double their win total, but they will flirt with bowl eligibility. Jay Norvell's teams have performed quite well as a home underdog. At Nevada and Colorado State, his teams are a combined 9-2 ATS in the role and have even pulled an outright upset against a Power Five team as a double digit underdog. Washington State has not laid double digits on the road since a trip to Corvallis in 2018. This is too many points for a middling Power Five team to lay on the road.
West Virginia +20.5 Penn State
Is this the end of the line for Neal Brown? The West Virginia head coach enters his fifth season in Morgantown having notched just one winning season (the 2020 Covid year). Despite his offensive bona fides (his last three Troy teams all averaged north of thirty points per game), his two Mountaineer teams that made it to bowl season won with defense. Then when his offense finally got going last season, the defense regressed by nearly ten points per game. This year's schedule features eleven Power Five teams and just one guaranteed win (Duquesne). With the Dukes, Nittany Lions, and Pitt Panthers on the schedule, the Mountaineers are playing all their non-conference games against their neighbors in the Keystone State (so smooth). The Nittany Lions are expected to contend for the Big 10 title this season and if this game were played later in the year, I would be more inclined to lay this big number. Penn State's presumed starting quarterback, Drew Allar, has a higher ceiling than last year's starter Sean Clifford, but despite his alleged lack of upside, Clifford was a four year starter who left as the school's all-time leading passer. Allar may surpass him eventually, but I think there will be a bit of a learning curve, especially against a Power Five team. Allar will probably look like a Heisman contender the next week when Penn State hosts Delaware, but I expect a disjointed effort against the Mountaineers. I'm not calling for a West Virginia upset, but laying three touchdowns is a lot to ask of an inexperienced quarterback against a decent opponent. Plus, I think West Virginia will lean on the ground game with a mobile starting quarterback (Garrett Greene Jr.) taking over. More running means fewer clock stoppages and fewer possessions. That means less time for Penn State to get margin.
San Jose State +16.5 Oregon State
No one was able to see it because it was 'televised' on the Pac-12 Network, but I think San Jose State acquitted themselves reasonably well against the Trojans. The Spartans gave up 56 points to Southern Cal and the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, but they also scored 28 points of their own while averaging six yards per play. Now, with a game under their belt they get to host a Power Five (for the moment) team in their brand new stadium. The Spartans have been a good bet as a home underdog under Brent Brennan, going 8-6-1 overall, including 5-1-1 as a double digit underdog. Meanwhile, this is the most points Oregon State has been laying away from Corvallis since they played an eventual 1-11 Washington State team in Pullman in 2009 (favored by 31). The Beavers have been very successful under Jonathan Smith, participating in back-to-back bowl games. However, they have only been road favorites five times under Smith and are 1-4 ATS (0-1 as a double digit favorite). Southern Cal, San Jose State's first opponent, attracts world class talent to succeed. Oregon State develops talent. That's not to say the Beavers don't have good players, just that San Jose State will not be as overwhelmed personnel wise as they were against Southern Cal. Oregon State has a chance to contend in the final year of the Pac-12 as we know it, but I wouldn't be shocked if they are in a fight for their metaphorical lives on Sunday afternoon.
