2023 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: MAC

Last week we looked at how MAC teams fared in terms of yards per play. This week, we turn our attention to how the season played out in terms of the Adjusted Pythagorean Record, or APR. For an in-depth look at APR, click here. If you didn’t feel like clicking, here is the Reader’s Digest version. APR looks at how well a team scores and prevents touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns, field goals, extra points, and safeties are excluded. The ratio of offensive touchdowns to touchdowns allowed is converted into a winning percentage. Pretty simple actually. 

Once again, here are the 2023 MAC standings.

And here are the APR standings with conference rank in offensive touchdowns, touchdowns allowed, and APR in parentheses. This includes conference games only with the championship game excluded.

Finally, MAC teams are sorted by the difference between their actual number of wins and their expected number of wins according to APR.

Toledo was the only MAC team that saw their actual record differ significantly from their APR. The Rockets finished unbeaten in league play for the first time since 1995. That was mostly due to an unblemished record (4-0) in close games. Half of Toledo's league wins came by a combined fourteen points. This stood in stark contrast to Toledo's close game record from the past few seasons. Between 2020 and 2022, the Rockets were just 3-8 in MAC games decided by a touchdown or less. 

I'm Not Your Steppin' Stone

One of my favorite podcasts, Split Zone Duo, recently recorded an episode where they discussed the lack of opportunities for MAC head coaches in finding better head coaching jobs. I had not considered that MAC head coaches were no longer a talent pool that better schools were drawing from to fill out their head coaching ranks. The podcast gave a convincing argument, but I don't like to take things at face value, so in the spirit of the four-year anniversary of the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, I decided to do my own research. 

Since the dawn of the 21st century, seventeen MAC head coaches have departed their jobs in America's heartland (mostly) for better jobs in the FBS landscape. Some continued to climb the coaching ladder and became legends, while others served only brief tenures with their new employer. 

The years listed in the table coincide with their final year as a MAC head coach. You'll notice that in the sixteen seasons between 2000 and 2015, fourteen MAC head coaches took better head coaching jobs. Even if you aren't great at math, you can figure that amounts to a little less than one per season. However, in the eight seasons since, only three MAC head coaches have been hired by better programs. And this is despite a plethora of successful head coaches in the MAC. 

Consider the case of Sean Lewis. His career record is not sparkling (24-31 overall), but he took Kent State to two bowl games and guided the Golden Flashes to a division title. A decade earlier, that was enough to get Darrell Hazell the Purdue job. Despite his success at one of the most difficult FBS jobs, Lewis decided a demotion of sorts was the best way for him to find a better head coaching position. He became the Colorado offensive coordinator under Deion Sanders and despite the fact that he was actually demoted while at Colorado, was able to snag the San Diego State head job when it opened. 

I can think of at least three current successful MAC head coaches who may have to opt for a coordinator gig at a better school before they receive another head coaching opportunity. Alphabetically, they are Jason Candle, Chris Creighton, and Chuck Martin. 

Candle has been the head coach at Toledo for eight seasons. During his tenure, the Rockets have won two MAC titles, three division titles, and never finished below .500. Meanwhile, in a much more difficult job, Creighton has been the head coach at Eastern Michigan for ten seasons. While his overall record looks poor on the surface (52-68), he has guided the Eagles to six bowl games and in 2022, the Eagles won nine games for just the second time in school history. Finally, Chuck Martin has also been in his position for ten years. During that time, Miami has won two MAC titles, and finished with at least a .500 league record for eight consecutive seasons. Despite their individual sustained successes, neither coach has received a better head coaching offer. Why? You can't blame the previous seventeen MAC head coaches who took better jobs. On the whole, they were usually successful hires. 

Thats a conservative rating for each coach. I'm willing to hear an argument that Jerry Kill (illness) and Dino Babers (ten wins in 2018) were successful in their stops at Minnesota and Syracuse respectively. Plus, Tim Beckman was fired at Illinois for issues unrelated to the team's performance on the field. Less than a quarter of those coaches (Turner Gill, Darrell Hazell, and Rod Carey) were truly unsuccessful at their new jobs. What does that mean? Well, for any athletic directors that happen to stumble upon this blog, it means that MAC head coaches might be undervalued. If you are hiring a head coach for say Fresno State, Memphis, or even Vanderbilt in the next couple of years, you could do a lot worse than giving one of these MAC guys a call.