.jpg)
Vanderbilt +13.5 Virginia Tech
In my humble opinion, the Virginia Tech hype train is picking up a bit too much steam. The national preseason consensus has the Hokies in the middle of the pack in the ACC and they are 27th in the preseason AP Poll. Those are somewhat lofty expectations for a team that finished 6-6 in the regular season, lost to Purdue, Rutgers, and Marshall in the non-conference, and was not competitive against the two ranked teams they faced (lost to both Florida State and Louisville by double digits). They did dispatch a ranked Tulane squad in their bowl game, but that team was in disarray with head coach Willie Fritz having left for Houston and quarterback Michael Pratt sitting the exhibition out. While I think the Hokies could be a touch overrated heading into 2024, the college football world might be sleeping on Vanderbilt. The Commodores finished winless in SEC play last season, bringing their record against power conference opponents to 2-25 in three seasons under Clark Lea. So naturally, my recommendation is to back this team. Why you ask? Well, aside from Virginia Tech being overrated by the market, Vanderbilt took two of the best parts of last year's New Mexico State team and transplanted them to Nashville. Head coach Jerry Kill is now an assistant at Vanderbilt and quarterback Diego Pavia should be the starting quarterback. Pavia is a dual-threat quarterback and an instant upgrade from what Vanderbilt put on the field last year. You may remember Pavia's exploits when the Aggies upset Auburn on the road last season. Kill also ran a slow-paced, run-based offense at Las Cruces, which shortens the game and introduces more variance. Shorter games with fewer possessions are exactly what Vanderbilt needs to compete (or at least hope to compete) in the SEC. This is too many points for Virginia Tech to be laying. Under Brent Pry, they are just 3-9 straight up in road games and have not been favored by more than a touchdown in any road game since the pandemic season of 2020.
Florida +2.5 Miami
Billy Napier's Florida tenure could end soon. His first two teams have been mediocre and his third team faces a brutal schedule. Even with solid improvement, the Gators may not qualify for a bowl game. A third consecutive losing season would probably end his stint in Gainesville, deserved or not. But before he is fired, he has a chance to turn the heat up on Mario Cristobal. The former FIU and Oregon coach is widely believed to have the most talented team in the ACC this season. So wouldn't it be a fitting for a conference with an uncertain future to have perhaps its best team open the season by losing to a mid-level SEC team? SEC partisans, which includes just about everyone i see on the daily, will have a field day. As if this somehow makes South Carolina's inevitable march to 5-7 better. But I digress. Florida looked like they did not practice at all last offseason when they opened the 2023 campaign in Utah and committed countless administrative penalties on their way to a loss to a team with no passing game. However, that game was in Salt Lake City, and the Gators have proven to be a different beast at home in The Swamp. In fact, Billy Napier has been money as a home underdog at both Louisiana-Lafayette and Florida. His teams are 5-1 ATS in the role with five outright wins. Despite their tremendous talent acquisition, I don't trust Miami, especially on the road. Take the Gators and the points.
Kennesaw State +25 UTSA
Kennesaw State did not beat a single FCS or FBS team last season, going 0-6 in such contests as a transitional FCS team. However, they did play in a lot of close games, losing five of those games by a touchdown or less, with the sixth coming by ten points. Now in their first game as an FBS team they are catching more than three touchdowns against a team that must replace a quarterback (Frank Harris) that played for them for five seasons. His final four seasons coincided with the arrival of head coach Jeff Traylor and the ascendence of the Roadrunner program. Since 2020, UTSA is 39-14 with a pair of conference titles. However, during that span in regular season games in which Harris did not play, the Roadrunners were 0-3 and averaged just under 19 points per game. When you are favored by three touchdowns, you need to be able to score to cover that big number. I don't expect Kennesaw to hold UTSA under twenty points, but the Roadrunners may not get to 37 points as the spread implies (over/under currently sits at 50.5). Kennesaw is not a true triple option team, but they will keep the ball on the ground which should result in fewer possessions and opportunities for UTSA to get margin. Take the FBS newbies to keep this within shouting distance.
Northwestern -3 Miami (Ohio)
Under Chuck Martin, Miami has won two MAC titles and played in five bowl games. His first two years were a struggle, producing a 5-19 record, but in the eight seasons since, the Redhawks are 51-43 and an impressive 40-19 in MAC play. Of course, if you do the math between the MAC record and the overall record, you can see that despite their success, Miami has struggled when facing teams outside the MAC. In fact, against power conference opponents, the Redhawks are 4-7 ATS. They are 2-9 straight up, with both victories coming in the past two seasons, including two seasons ago at Northwestern. The Wildcats lost that game on their way to eleven consecutive defeats to close the 2022 campaign after upsetting Nebraska in Ireland. They had some drama in the 2023 offseason and with an interim coach, nothing was expected of them. However, David Braun did his best Pat Fitzgerald impression and beat more talented teams by letting them beat themselves. The betting market does not expect the Wildcats to continue their winning ways as their over/under win total is just 4.5. With nine conference games, I agree with that assessment and think the Wildcats will struggle in 2024. However, while their final record may not be good, the Wildcats are probably more talented than Miami, are playing at home, and don't have any reason to overlook the Redhawks. I'm sure Northwestern players and coaches know the Redhawks offer one of their best chances for victory this season and will look to get the 2024 season off on solid footing. You are getting the Wildcats at a discount considering they are hosting a Group of Five opponent and are favored by only a field goal.
Georgia State +21 Georgia Tech
A year and a half ago on this blog, I opined that outside of practicing special teams, Brent Key was not much of an upgrade over the disastrous Geoff Collins. I am ready to take an 'L' on that one. While the Yellow Jackets are a mediocre 12-10 under his guidance, they are a competent football team. This stands in stark contrast to the shambolic mess the program was under Collins. The Yellow Jackets have also been remarkably consistent ATS under Key. Including last week's victory against Florida State, Georgia Tech is 12-3 ATS in the regular season as an underdog with nine outright victories under Key! However, they are also just 1-4 ATS as a favorite with four outright losses. Nothing in gambling is this simple, but Georgia Tech has shown they are not to be trusted when laying points. Couple that fact with potential jet lag from the trip to Ireland, another conference game on deck next week (at Syracuse), and the proverbial letdown spot off a big win, and one almost has to back Georgia State. Plus, consider the amount of uncertainty surrounding the Georgia State program. Their head coach Shawn Elliott, left the program in mid-February to become an assistant at South Carolina. The Panthers replaced Elliott with Georgia assistant Dell McGee. This is McGee's first head coaching gig (outside of his cameo as Georgia Southern's interim head coach in their 2015 bowl game. This means Georgia Tech is in the dark when it comes to scouting the Panthers. After beating Florida State last week, this spread moved to three touchdowns. This is flat spot, so back the Panthers even though they are breaking in a new coach and a ton of new players.
Arizona State -7 Wyoming
Craig Bohl had a good run at Wyoming. The former multiple national champion FCS coach went 61-60 in Laramie and guided the Cowboys to six bowl bids. On the surface, 61-60 may not seem like much of an accomplishment, but its hard to win at Wyoming. Mostly on account of how few people live there. In the coming years, I think his replacements will have a hard time matching that overall record. The first man to try is Jay Sawvel. He was promoted from defensive coordinator and that is where Wyoming made their hay under Bohl. Since 2017, Wyoming's defenses have ranged from good to great at the Group of Five level. The problem, or at least what prevented the Cowboys from taking the proverbial next step, was the offense. I don't think that is getting fixed under Sawvel. A few gambling podcasts I respect have been comparing quarterback Evan Svoboda to Josh Allen because he is big and white and wears number 17. That seems like a bold comparison for a quarterback with 38 career pass attempts. The Cowboys have had two good passing offense in the past 30 years. In 1996 with an innovative Joe Tiller running things and in 2016 with the aforementioned Josh Allen. In both seasons, the Cowboys qualified for (and lost) their respective conference title games (WAC and Mountain West). I don't expect another great passing offense to appear out of nowhere. That being said, is Wyoming's defense good enough to keep them in this game? Under Bohl, the Cowboys beat two Power Five teams, including Texas Tech last year. However, both those victories came in Laramie. The Cowboys played eight Power Five road games under Bohl and lost each one. They did manage a 3-5 ATS record, but that is a bit misleading. The Cowboys lost all eight of those games by at least 17 points and only covered because the spreads were massive. Arizona State will be looking to get things going under second year head coach Kenny Dillingham. There are not a lot of breaks on that Big 12 schedule and I expect the Sun Devils to be ready on opening night to show they are improved from their 3-9 record last season.
Southern Cal +4.5 LSU @ Las Vegas
Regular season openers have proven to be a bit of a bugaboo for LSU since the Tigers rolled through the 2019 season as an unbeaten national champion. LSU has dropped four consecutive openers, with three of the losses coming as a betting favorite. To avoid a fifth consecutive 0-1 start, the Tigers will need to show signs of improvement on defense. The Tigers failed to defend their SEC West title last season because the defense was not up to snuff. They finished twelfth (of fourteen teams) in yards allowed per play in the SEC and they allowed at least 42 points in each of their three losses. LSU always has talent, so the defense is almost assured to improve. However, that defensive improvement will almost certainly be offset by regression on offense. The Tigers won ten games last season thanks to a dynamic offense led by Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels and a pair of first round draft picks at wide receiver (Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas). The Tigers will need all the points they can muster against a Southern Cal team that also loses a Heisman Trophy winner (Caleb Williams), but has a head coach with a track record of quarterback whispering. Lincoln Riley has been a college head coach for seven seasons and three of his starting quarterbacks have won the Heisman. Being an underdog is also an unusual role for Lincoln Riley. This marks just the eighth time his teams have been catching points in the regular season. In the previous seven games, they are 5-2 ATS. In addition, the role of favorite has not been kind to Brian Kelly since he migrated to Baton Rouge from South Bend. His teams are just 5-7-1 ATS in the role against power conference opponents with four outright losses. LSU loses too much on offense to keep up with what should be a resurgent Southern Cal team. Take the Trojans and the points.
No comments:
Post a Comment