The Magnificent Seven: Week II

For the first time in years, we did not start the year in the hole. We'll try to grind out another winning week for you. As always, home teams in bold. 

Last Week: 5-2

Overall: 5-2

Army +4 Florida Atlantic

I'm not sure why this number keep climbing. It opened with Florida Atlantic a small favorite and has now eclipsed a field goal. Perhaps folks only saw the final score of Florida Atlantic's opener, a 16-10 loss at Michigan State and assumed the Owls played well. As someone who watched the entire game, I can assure you, they did not. The Spartans only managed 16 points, but they were in position to score on several occasions. They committed three turnovers inside the Florida Atlantic red zone (a fumble, a pick, and a turnover on downs). Offensively the Owls struggled to move the ball in the passing game. Quarterback Cam Fancher, a Marshall transfer completed less than half his passes and averaged under five yards per throw. Fancher did have some nice runs, but overall he rushed for just 67 yards on 25 carries. His best plays were late slides where he drew some penalties on Michigan State defenders. That is probably not a winning long term strategy. Despite that poor performance, the Owls are a solid favorite against an unfamiliar service academy. The Owls have never faced Army and are 1-3 (both straight up and ATS) in a small sample against the other FBS service academies (Air Force and Navy). After a brief flirtation with the shotgun option, Army is back to being a true triple option team (with a little variation). That is what they should always be. Under Jeff Monken, the Black Knights are 10-7-2 ATS as a road underdog against non-power conference opponents. Meanwhile Tom Herman has burned up cash as a home favorite, posting a 10-20-2 ATS record in the role at three schools (Houston, Texas, and Florida Atlantic). In gambling, nothing is guaranteed, but this is the most confident I have been in a pick in a long time. 

UTSA +1 Texas State

After bad decade as an FBS team, Texas State enjoyed success under first year head coach GJ Kinne in 2023. The Bobcats won seven regular season games, qualified for their first bowl game, and dominated Rice in the First Responder Bowl. One season in, everyone is drinking the Kool-Aid. The Bobcats were the consensus (and near unanimous) favorite to win the Sun Belt West heading into the season. Their dress rehearsal against FCS Lamar was decent. Texas State led 18-0 at the half and were up double digits heading into the fourth quarter, but got a little bit of a scare in winning by just a touchdown. I wouldn't necessarily downgrade the Bobcats after that performance, but I also don't think they should be a favorite against the preeminent non-power program in the state of Texas. The Roadrunners began the Jeff Traylor era by winning in San Marcos during the pandemic impacted 2020 season. Including that game, UTSA is 12-2 straight up and 10-4 ATS against Group of Five teams from the state of Texas under Traylor. Like Texas State, the Roadrunners built a big lead in their opener, but got a bit of a second half scare before pulling away to beat Kennesaw State by twelve. UTSA is one of the best teams in the AAC and should not be catching points against a Sun Belt team with a lot of hype, but few good wins. The Bobcats have won eight regular season games under Kinne. Two of those victories have come against FCS opponents and the other six have all come against teams that failed to finish better than 6-6 in the regular season. The market is wrong about Texas State. Take the Roadrunners to zip past the Bobcats. 

Ohio +2.5 South Alabama

You shouldn't overreact to one game, but as someone holding a South Alabama over 6.5 wins ticket, I was nonplussed by their showing in the season opener. The Jaguars, who finished with the third best per play conference defense in the Sun Belt last season, allowed 52 points, 550 yards, and over seven yards per play to North Texas. I will point out the Jaguars also racked up nearly 600 yards of offense and averaged north of seven yards per play as well. However, a double digit home loss as a near touchdown favorite does not inspire a great deal of confidence moving forward. And forward we move, as the Jaguars head to Athens to take on the Ohio Bobcats. Ohio had a decent showing on the road against a power conference opponent, losing by 16 in the former Carrier Dome to Syracuse. The Bobcats struggled to contain the Orange, but moved the ball pretty well. Now the Bobcats come home, where they have been fantastic under Tim Albin. Longtime head coach Frank Solich retired suddenly in the summer of 2021 and Ohio underachieved, finishing 3-9 (1-5 at home) in Albin's first season. However, Albin has adjusted to the job the past two seasons, posting ten win campaigns in both 2022 and 2023, with just one home loss (to the eventual MAC champ) in that span. Under Albin, the Bobcats are 6-3 ATS as a home underdog with five outright wins. Contrast that with South Alabama head coach Major Applewhite. Applewhite's teams are 3-6 ATS as road favorites and until they prove that defensive performance was an aberration, should not be laying points on the road. 

Sam Houston State +22 UCF

One week into their second season as an FBS program, Sam Houston seems like they may have found a quarterback. JUCO transfer Hunter Watson looked the part in the opener, averaging over eight yards per pass and tossing two touchdowns. The Bearkats scored 34 points, which is tied for their second highest point total in thirteen games at the FBS level. A competent pass offense was the missing ingredient last season. The Bearkats averaged just twenty points per game in 2023. Despite their pedestrian offense, they still managed to cover games, posting a 6-3 ATS mark as an underdog. I expect that trend to continue this week as the market does not seem to realize how improved the Bearkats are offensively. They probably don't have enough firepower to win in Orlando, but I expect them to keep this one close. UCF has the name and coach recognition, although I would argue KC Keeler has a better coaching resume than Guz Malzahn. The Knights have not done well as a favorite (home or away) under Malzahn. Against FBS opponents, they are 8-16-1 ATS as a favorite (5-9-1 as a home favorite) and an even more disconcerting 4-7-1 as a double digit favorite (3-5-1 at home). This is also a bit of a lookahead spot as they open Big 12 play at TCU next week. I thought Sam Houston might be better this season and invested in an over play on 4.5 wins. I feel great about that bet at the moment, and expect another solid data point this week. 

Tulsa +7.5 Arkansas State

Looking to build off their first bowl appearance since 2019, Arkansas State nearly derailed their season against Central Arkansas of the FCS. The Bears are a decent FCS team, but they scored 31 points and averaged over seven yards per play against the Arkansas State defense. Defense has been an issue for the Red Wolves since the pandemic season. They finished second to last in per play defense in the Sun Belt in 2020, last in 2021, and eleventh (of fourteen teams) in both 2022 and 2023. That problem does not appear to be solved. And if a team can't play defense, you don't want to lay numbers with them. Tulsa may end up having a down year, but they did not struggle to put away an FCS team in their opener. Granted, Northwestern State is of a lower quality than Central Arkansas, but Tulsa put them away early and did not play with their food. Most troubling for Arkansas State fans is that the Golden Hurricane averaged nearly eight yards per rush in their opener. Meanwhile, Arkansas State allowed over seven yards per rush to Central Arkansas. That does not seem like a winning combination. I won't go as far as saying Tulsa should be favored, but I will point out Tulsa plays in the stronger league and obviously looked better in their first game. This is just the fourth time Arkansas State has been a home favorite against an FBS team under Butch Jones. This spread should be less than a field goal, so catching north of a touchdown is a gift from the gambling gods. 

Kennesaw State +15 Louisiana-Lafayette

The Owls from Kennesaw, Georgia had a rough start to their FBS lives, especially on defense. The Owls allowed UTSA to score touchdowns on their first three drives and fell behind 21-3 early in the second quarter. But from that point forward, they looked like a competent Group of Five team. They held the Roadrunners scoreless for their final three drives of the first half thanks to a fumble and a missed field goal, but really got their bearings in the second half, forcing four consecutive punts before getting the ball back in the fourth quarter down just five. A subsequent fumble gave the Roadrunners a short field where they eventually put the game away. After a tough road trip to the Alamodome, the Owls come back to Georgia for their first home game as an FBS program. They host a Ragin' Cajuns team that has struggled in the role of road favorite under third year head coach Michael Desormeaux (yes, I had to look up the spelling). Overall, Louisiana-Lafayette is 4-8 in true road games under Desormeaux and just 1-5 ATS as a road favorite with five outright losses, including two as a double digit favorite. We didn't learn a lot from the Cajuns first game as they dominated a mid-FCS team, beating Grambling 40-10. Meanwhile, Kennesaw State played well against one of the better Group of Five teams. I expected this spread to be closer to ten points and since it is currently north of two touchdowns, for the second weekend in a row, I'll take the Owls to cover a big number. 

San Jose State +5 Air Force

I expected a big drop off in 2024 from San Jose State. Last season, the Spartans rallied after a 1-5 start, rattling off six consecutive victories and nearly making the Mountain West Championship Game. They lost their coach and veteran quarterback and I figured there would be some growing pains. Its early, but the Spartans looked good against a quality FCS opponent in their opener. New quarterback Emmett Brown (who better go by 'Doc') threw for nearly 300 yards and the Spartans scored 42 points against Sacramento State (who beat Stanford last year by the way). Meanwhile, Air Force looked like the team dealing with growing pains. The Falcons also faced an FCS opponent (Merrimack), but they managed just 21 points and averaged only three yards per carry. For the uninitiated, Air Force typically dominates in the run game, having averaged over five yards per rush in each of the past five seasons. The Falcons did lose a lot from last year's team, so some regression was to be expected. As I mentioned previously, I don't like to overreact to one game, but Air Force's performance was troubling. Couple that poor offensive showing with the likely familiarity of San Jose State's new head coach (Ken Niumatalolo) with Air Force (former Navy head coach) and it makes me think the Falcons will have a lot of trouble moving the ball. I backed way too many underdogs this week, so some of them are bound to bust, but I have to take the Spartans catching nearly a touchdown.