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Overall: 16-12
Temple +13 Army
I'm dipping my toe into a weeknight game for the first time this year (Labor Day notwithstanding). If you peruse the AAC standings, you will notice something exciting. Army and Navy are currently in first place with identical 2-0 records. I am hoping they both finish as the top two teams in the American, meet in the AAC Championship Game, and then play again the next week in the regularly scheduled Army/Navy game. We are 25% of the way toward that goal if you are keeping track at home. Overall, Army is 3-0, and while none of their victories have been particularly close, they have yet to beat a quality team. They won their opener against Lehigh of the FCS and their two conference wins have come against FAU and Rice (one combined FBS win between them). Of course, their opponent on Thursday, Temple, can also be classified as a bad team. The Owls won their first game of the season last week against Utah State, and may not be favored in any of their final eight games. But if you squint, you can see some improvement. After a disastrous start, where they scored fourteen combined points against Oklahoma and Navy, the Owls changed quarterbacks, installing Rutgers transfer Evan Simon at quarterback. In the two games since the change, the Owls have scored 65 points, winning one game and covering both. If Simon can continue his solid play, the Owls should be able to score enough points to stay within striking distance of Army. Triple option teams are typically great to back as an underdog and bad to back as a favorite. Their offense chews up the clock, limiting possessions, and preventing favorites from getting margin. Army has been a double digit favorite just five times under Jeff Monken. They have covered three of those games in that limited sample, but they have also lost two outright. The market is sleeping on Temple and the Owls also faced a similar (and better) offense just three weeks ago when they traveled to Annapolis to take on the Midshipmen. Take the Owls to keep this one close and put a scare in the Black Knights.
Wake Forest -3 Louisiana-Lafayette
I know the Ragin' Cajuns prefer to be called Louisiana, but old habits are hard to break, so they will be known as Louisiana-Lafayette by me in perpetuity (much like the NFL's Colts are consistently referred to as 'Baltimore' by my father). Based on their performance over the past two calendar years, its easy to see why Wake Forest is only laying three points at home to a Sun Belt opponent. On October 29, 2022, Wake Forest was 6-1, ranked tenth in the country, and headed to Louisville for an afternoon game against the Cardinals. Wake led by a point at the half, but self-immolated in the second half, turning the ball over on possession after possession (eight in total) on their way to a crushing defeat. Including the Louisville debacle, Wake Forest is 6-14 in their past twenty regular season games. Two of those victories have come against FCS opponents, one against a bad Vanderbilt team, one against the worst Pitt team of the 21st century, one against Old Dominion, and their 'best' regular season victory came against a Syracuse squad that also wheezed to the finish in 2022. So why on earth should you and your money go anywhere near them? For starters, Wake is probably better than people think this year. They have not beaten an FBS team, but they came very close against an improved Virginia team. More importantly, their offense seems to have rebounded from their horrific performance last season. Wake averaged just north of twenty points per game last season (under twenty against FBS opponents). Once again, they are averaging under twenty points per game against FBS opponents in 2024, but they have only played two such games and one came against Ole Miss. I was skeptical of the Rebels heading into the season, but they appear to be the real deal. And while Wake only scored six points against the Rebels, they turned the ball over on downs twice and threw an interception in Ole Miss territory. Against non-elite defenses, the Demon Deacons should be fine in 2024. They won't reach the heights of 2021, but they should be able to move the ball against a Sun Belt defense that has not really been tested this season. The Ragin' Cajuns are 2-1 with one of those wins coming against an FCS opponent. However, their other victory came against Kennesaw State, the newest (and perhaps worst) member of FBS. They are also coming off an emotional game against in-state rival Tulane last week. Now they hit the road to face a power conference team that is off a bye. The Ragin' Cajuns are a respectable 4-2 ATS as a road underdog under Michael Desormeaux, but they are 0-2 ATS on the road against power conference opponents. You are catching the Demon Deacons at a discount. Back them in this spot.
Central Michigan -3 San Diego State
Its early, but it seems like there are a lot of bad teams in the Mountain West. New Mexico and Wyoming are winless. Air Force, Hawaii, San Diego State, and Utah State have not beaten an FBS opponent, and the Falcons and Aztecs look like two of the worst offenses in college football. Perhaps that sextet improves once conference play starts, but for now, half the league looks like trash. The Aztecs are currently renovating their program with former Kent State coach Sean Lewis looking to bring an up-tempo offense to a school with a defensive identity. Results, as expected have not been great thus far. It took Lewis some time to build Kent State into a competent MAC team. His first season featured a lot of losses (1-7 MAC record). The Golden Flashes didn't really hit their stride until late in his second season. They were 3-10 through their first thirteen MAC games, but went 16-7 in league play over the remainder of his tenure. Since his departure after the 2022 season, the Flashes have won just a single games and have not beaten an FBS team. He's a good coach, but don't expect results until next year. While San Diego State is off a bye, Central Michigan is off a tight victory against Ball State in their league opener. The win moved the Chippewas to 2-2. While that record may not seem impressive on the surface, it is when you consider they have a turnover margin of -7 and have forced just a single turnover on the season. Some regression (or progression in terms of forcing them) in that department will do wonders for Central Michigan's record. That turnover margin is unsustainable and is depressing this spread. Central Michigan should be laying more than a field goal, so take the Chippewas to cover this small number against a team that has trouble scoring. And if you're curious, yes, Lewis did face Central Michigan once while he was at Kent State. The Golden Flashes were a slight road underdog and lost by 34.
Louisiana-Monroe +7 Troy
I don't know if you know this, but Jon Sumrall does not coach Troy any more. After winning two Sun Belt titles in two seasons at Troy, Sumrall took the Tulane job. Maybe the betting market has not caught on to that fact yet. Otherwise, this spread does not make sense to me. Outside of their victory against Florida A&M last week, Troy has done nothing to warrant laying nearly a touchdown in a conference game. The Trojans have already lost to a team that has been bad for multiple seasons, but looks to be improved under a first year head coach, when they dropped their opener to Nevada. Louisiana-Monroe has won just ten games the past four seasons, but an underrated blogger opined that last season they were one of the better teams to go winless in conference play. Improvement was possible, and perhaps inevitable, and last week's game against Texas notwithstanding, they have looked better against teams in their own weight class. Troy's days of running the Sun Belt are over (at least for now), but it seems the betting market has not wised up to that yet. Take the Warhawks and don't be shocked if they pull off the outright upset.
Charlotte +6.5 Rice
Someone has to explain to me what the betting market sees in Rice? The Owls have been favored in two of their three games against FBS competition this season. They are 0-2 ATS and straight up in those games, losing to Sam Houston and regular Houston by a combined 46 points. And here they are again, laying nearly a touchdown. Granted, Charlotte has not shown much this season, but are you really prepared to lay your hard earned money on Rice? The Owls have been a poor favorite for the duration of head coach Mike Bloomgren's tenure. They are 2-8 ATS as a home favorite, with seven outright losses. They have not fared much better in road trips as a favorite either, posting a 2-4 ATS mark with three outright losses. For those scoring at home, the Owls are 4-12 ATS as a favorite, with ten outright losses! That kind of performance will usually get you fired and probably will if it continues. As I mentioned earlier, Charlotte has not shown much this season, but at least the 49ers have had the wherewithal to lose to good (Indiana and James Madison) or at least power conference (North Carolina) teams. Plus, Charlotte at least been competitive in the road underdog role under head coach Biff Poggi. They are 7-2 ATS as a road dog. They also won in their only previous trip to Rice, dominating the Owls as a fifteen point underdog two years ago. In this battle of bad teams, take the one getting nearly a touchdown.
Illinois +17.5 Penn State
Illinois is 4-0 and the Illini have already sprung two upsets, beating Kansas in Champaign and upsetting Nebraska in Lincoln last Friday night. A win in State College would reset the Big 10 race significantly and potentially rocket Illinois into the AP top ten for the first time since they won the Big 10 in 2001. That probably won't happen on Saturday, but a guy can dream, can't he? At worst, the Illini will represent by far the stiffest test Penn State has faced thus far. The Nittany Lions are fresh off a beating of Kent State, pounding the Golden Flashes 56-0. I'll point out two weeks ago, the Golden Flashes allowed 71 points to Tennessee, so I don't know that there is a whole lot to be learned from that data point other than Penn State good and Kent State bad. Penn State's passing offense has been dominant through their first three games, averaging over twelve yards per throw. The Illini pass defense has allowed under six yards per throw in their four games, although Nebraska did make some plays against that secondary last week. Since returning to the Big 10 in 2021, Illinois head coach Bret Bielema has performed well in the underdog role. His teams are 10-3 ATS as a road underdog, including a 6-1 ATS record as a double digit road underdog. Give me the Illini on Saturday night, although I fully expect James Franklin to try and punch one in late to cover this number when he could just take a knee or two. It would not be the first time.
Washington State +7.5 Boise State
For the second year in a row, Washington State is off to a blistering start. The Cougars opened 2023 with four consecutive wins (two over ranked teams), rose to number thirteen in the AP Poll, and then proceeded to lose seven of their last eight games. The good news for the Cougars is that in 2024, there are only Mountain West teams (some of them quite bad) and Oregon State left on the schedule, so a similar collapse is unlikely. After facing San Jose State in a thriller last week, they continue their Mountain West sojourn with a trip to Boise State. The Broncos were the consensus favorite to win the Mountain West before the season started, but these are not your older brother's mid-major powerhouse. Since Chris Petersen left for Washington following the 2013 season, Boise State is 5-8 both straight up and ATS against power conference opponents in the regular season. Under Petersen (2006-2013), they were 6-3 straight up and ATS in regular season games versus power conference opponents. I know Washington State is technically no longer a power conference team as the Pac-12 has lost most of its major brands, but they still have that power conference residue (and have beaten two power conference teams this season). They also have an exciting playmaker taking snaps. John Mateer is averaging nearly 300 yards passing per game and over 100 yards per game on the ground. The dual threat quarterback should be able to keep Washington State in this game against a porous Bronco defense. The Broncos have allowed 45 and 37 points to the two FBS teams they have faced. I expect Washington State to score at least thirty and keep this margin within a touchdown.
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