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Overall: 13-8
James Madison +10.5 North Carolina
After losing Drake Maye to the riches of the NFL and starting quarterback Max Johnson to an injury in their opener, North Carolina is quietly 3-0. Its their fourth 3-0 start in six seasons under the second Mack Brown regime. The Tar Heels will look to close out their non-conference slate with a perfect 4-0 mark before opening ACC play next week at Duke. Their opponent, James Madison, is a bit of an unknown. After dominating the Sun Belt in their first two seasons as an FBS program, their head coach took the Indiana job and their quarterback headed west to Texas State. The Dukes hired Bob Chesney from Holy Cross as their new head coach and have opened 2-0, but their most recent game was a bit disconcerting, at least on offense. The Dukes beat Gardner-Webb of the FCS, but only managed thirteen points in a tight win. Gardner-Webb has come close to knocking off two FBS teams, nearly taking out Charlotte last week as well, but losing thanks to a failed two-point conversion. James Madison did not play well offensively in their game with the Runnin' Bulldogs, but they left a few points on the field, missing a field goal and turning the ball over on downs twice. Their offense may be able to get back on track against a North Carolina team that doesn't appear to have fixed the defensive issues that have plagued them throughout Mack Brown's second tenure. The Tar Heels and Dukes have played one common opponent this season, Charlotte. The 49ers could not move the ball against James Madison, scoring just seven points while averaging under four and half yards per play. Against North Carolina, they scored only twenty points, but averaged nearly ten yards per pass. The 49ers scored two touchdowns, but had first and goal inside the North Carolina ten on two other occasions. They came away with just two field goals on those drives. With a week off to prepare, I think James Madison will be able to move the ball against North Carolina. Plus, despite playing in the Sun Belt and moving up from FCS just two seasons ago, I think James Madison has the stronger defense. Take the Dukes and the double digits.
Kansas +2.5 West Virginia
The Jayhawks and Mountaineers come into this game with identical 1-2 records. The loser, will obviously fall to 1-3 and into a sort of existential dread. The winner, will ne just 2-2, but will be unbeaten in Big 12 play and still have an outside shot at a College Football Playoff bid. Kansas has dropped two games despite arguably outplaying both Illinois and UNLV. The Jayhawks outgained the Illini and the Rebels by more than a yard per play, but committed six total turnovers in both games (-5 margin). The Illini returned an interception for a touchdown late in the second quarter and the Rebels used a late second quarter interception to run the worst two-minute drill of all time (that still somehow resulted in a touchdown). The Rebels also had one of the most fortuitous bounces on their game-winning touchdown drive. Suffice to say, Kansas has been a bit unlucky thus far in 2024. West Virginia was also a bit unlucky in that they blew a ten-point fourth quarter lead last week against archrival Pitt, but their defense has been pretty bad through three games. The Mountaineers have allowed nearly ten yards per pass on the season, and remember one of those data points includes Albany from the FCS. Offensively, the Mountaineers rely on their ground game, but Kansas has played the run well, allowing just over three yards per carry. I think you are getting the Jayhawks at a discount. ESPN's FPI metric rated them as the best team in the Big 12 before the season started (West Virginia was ninth by the same metric). If the Jayhawks can avoid the turnover issues that have plagued them the past two games, they are primed to pull the upset in Morgantown.
Southern Miss +6 Jacksonville St
One season after beginning their FBS life with a 9-4 campaign, the Gamecocks from Jacksonville State are floundering and in danger of matching last year's loss total less than a month into the season. What sort of clairvoyant could have seen this regression coming? Despite their head coach's reputation as an offensive innovator, last season's Gamecock team won with defense. They created havoc and lived in opposing backfields, generating 38 sacks on the year. This year's team has just five sacks, with all of them coming last week against Eastern Michigan. Perhaps their pass rush is rounding into form. Or maybe Eastern Michigan's offensive line is just that bad. They did allow seven sacks to Washington the previous week, so I'll let you infer from that what you will. Anyway, the Gamecocks have been much worse on defense, and their offense has been about the same. Yet, somehow, this winless team is laying nearly a touchdown against a team from a better conference. Will Hall is working very on getting fired as head coach of the Eagles, posting a 14-26 record in just over three seasons in Hattiesburg. The Eagles can at least blame a tough schedule for their rough start, losing to a power conference team on the road (Kentucky) and an up and comer from the AAC (South Florida). There is no loss to Eastern Michigan (no offense to Chris Creighton and company) or a home blowout to Coastal Carolina on this ledger. That's not to say things won't devolve as the Eagles get into Sun Belt play, but right now, I think the spread on this game should be close to even on a neutral field. I'll make a principled stand and back Southern Miss in a battle of two teams headed for disappointing seasons.
Navy +10 Memphis
At the quarter poll of their 2024 campaign, the question remains, how good is Memphis? The Tigers were the consensus top team in the AAC in the preseason, and had they started out 3-0 with this schedule in 2023, would be deserving of a little number beside their name in the AP Poll. Troy and Florida State finished a combined 22-2 in the regular season last year and each won their respective conference titles (Sun Belt and ACC), but the Trojans and Seminoles have fallen on hard times. Troy is 0-3, having lost to these Tigers as well as Iowa and Nevada, while Florida State is also famously winless. Give the Tigers credit for winning the games on their schedule, but I thinks its fair to say Navy is the best team they will have faced thus far. The Midshipmen are also undefeated, but have not beaten anyone of note (Bucknell and Temple). However, they are averaging over 40 points per game in that small sample against bad teams after averaging just under 18 points per game last season. One reason to believe this may be legitimate progress and not just stat-padding is the presence of offensive coordinator Drew Cronic. Cronic is the former head coach at Mercer (and also Reinhardt and Lenoir-Rhyne). He guided the Bears to their first playoff appearance in school history last year and has posted just one losing season in eight years as a head coach. Cronic has installed a hybrid Wing T offense in Annapolis and it appears to be working thus far. The Midshipmen have had a week off to prepare for Memphis, the Tigers are probably overvalued by the market after their unbeaten start, and Navy has covered three of the four games at home in this series since joining the AAC in 2015. Take the Midshipmen to cover and potentially shake up the AAC race.
Vanderbilt +20 Missouri
One of my hottest takes heading into the season was that Vanderbilt would compete for a bowl bid. With their non-conference schedule and New Mexico State transplants, I thought they had a decent chance at heading into their regular season finale against Tennessee with either five or six wins. Their upset win against Virginia Tech did nothing to diminish my enthusiasm. And then, they lost at Georgia State. The Commodores dilly dallied the whole game and trailed the Panthers by double digits late in the fourth quarter before staging a rally to take the lead only to be undone by a late Georgia State touchdown. The loss probably extinguishes Vandy's bowl prospects, but it doesn't change the fact that this team can still be a thorn in the side of their eight SEC opponents. The Commodores do not technically run the triple option, but in spirit, this is a service academy. In their first three games, the Commodores have run the ball nearly twice as often as they have thrown it, and that spread was even more pronounced before they had to pass the entire fourth quarter last week against Georgia State. In their first two games, the Commodores ran the ball more than 70% of the time. A running underdog is the type of team you want to back when they are catching a lot of points. As we saw last week, when Missouri faced another triple option emeritus team in Boston College. The Tigers and Eagles combined for just nineteen total drives, and despite controlling the game from the beginning of the second quarter on, Missouri was never able to pull away and cover the three-score spread. I expect something similar to happen here. Barring some fantastic turnover luck, Vanderbilt does not have the firepower to win this game outright. However, they should be able to limit the possessions, score between thirteen and seventeen points, and cover this number.
TCU -3 SMU
The Iron Skillet rivalry has been dominated by TCU since SMU came back from the dead. The teams have played 33 times since 1989 and TCU is 25-8 against the Mustangs in that span. I'll point out SMU has won two of the past four games in this series, but their head coach in those games was Sonny Dykes (current TCU head coach). In fact, teams coached by Dykes are 4-1 in this rivalry (2-1 at SMU and 2-0 at TCU). Both teams enter this game off disappointing defeats. SMU is off a bye, but in their most recent game, they lost at home to BYU, managing just fifteen points against the Cougars. TCU lost this past Saturday, blowing a 21-point second half lead to UCF in their Big 12 opener. Despite the loss, TCU played well offensively, scoring 34 points (tied for the fewest they have scored all season). That side of the ball is where SMU has struggled this season. After averaging over 35 points per game against FBS opponents last season, SMU has managed just 44 total points against Nevada and BYU. They did throttle Houston Baptist, but I think we can dismiss that result. In the process, they have also benched their starting quarterback and turned things over to Kevin Jennings. Jennings started for the Mustangs in their AAC Championship Game victory last season after Preston Stone was injured in the regular season finale, but he also started the Fenway Bowl where the Mustangs managed just fourteen points against a porous Boston College defense. Results have been mixed. And I don't think you can count on the Mustangs putting up a lot of point this week. Something is off with their offense (perhaps Stone is not fully recovered from his leg injury) and the Mustangs have lost six consecutive games to power conference opponents. In fact, their last two victories against power conference opponents came against TCU in 2019 and 2021 when, as I previously mentioned, Sonny Dykes was the coach. Dykes finished 2-2 against power conference opponents in his SMU career. As I also mentioned, current head coach Rhett Lashlee is 0-6 against power conference foes and overall SMU has not been great when stepping up in class. They went nine years, and seventeen games, between power conference victories (beat Washington State in 2010) before beating TCU in 2019. The majority of those seventeen games came against teams from Texas (Baylor, TCU, Texas A&M, Texas Tech). SMU does not have a great track record in this rivalry, and their greatest success in it came under the tutelage of the coach on the other sideline. TCU does not have to blow SMU out to cover this number. Take the Horned Frogs to notch another victory in this series and keep the skillet for another year.
Oklahoma +7 Tennessee
I hate standing in front of freight trains. I don't like to bet against elite teams when they are laying points, so I may end up regretting this one very early Saturday night, but allow me to lay out the reasons why I think you should back Oklahoma. What do we really know so far about Tennessee? The Vols have been dominant in their first three games, outscoring their opponents by an absurd 191-13 margin. But who have they beaten? An FCS team (Chattanooga), a very bad FBS team (Kent State), and an ACC team that was losing at the half to Louisiana Tech at home (NC State). Maybe the Wolfpack get their act together and become a contender in the ACC, but thus far their best win is against a probable 7-5 ACC team. Dominating inferior opponents can tell us a lot about a team, but lets not hang any banners in Knoxville just yet. This road trip to Norman will mark quarterback Nico Iamaleava's first ever road start. He started the neutral site game against NC State and the bowl game against Iowa last season, but this will be the most adversity he has faced in his young career. Oklahoma is also rarely an underdog in Norman. The last time was 2016 against Ohio State. The Buckeyes did dominate that game, but that was an experienced team that would go on to make the four-team College Football Playoff. Finally, do you know what Tennessee's record is under Josh Heupel in SEC road games? 5-7, with three of the victories coming against Kentucky and Vanderbilt. Two years ago, the Vols blasted an LSU team that would eventually win the SEC West, but that has been more the exception than the rule whenever they leave the friendly confines of Neyland Stadium. Oklahoma has not looked good on offense in their first three games, but the defense is very good and will present the stiffest test Tennessee has faced this far. I don't know if Oklahoma has the firepower to win the game outright, but this should be more of a low-scoring defensive affair, reminiscent of SEC games of a decade or so ago. Take the Sooners catching points at home.
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