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Overall: 19-16
Pittsburgh -2.5 North Carolina
After bottoming out at 3-9 last season, while fielding the worst offense of his tenure, Pat Narduzzi realized he needed to make a change. He nabbed a highly touted quarterback from the transfer portal, hired a successful offensive coordinator, and found a dynamic playmaker from the FCS ranks. The results thus far have been good. The Panthers are not an elite team, but they are fun to watch and the offensive issues have been fixed. The defense is still a work in progress, but the Panthers have already exceeded last season's win total and until they take their first loss, are a darkhorse candidate to get to the ACC Championship Game. They open conference play against a North Carolina squad that is reeling after a home loss to James Madison and a tough road loss where they blew a twenty point lead to archrival Duke. The Tar Heel defense has been particularly susceptible to the pass, which is not good news against the Pitt offense. North Carolina should be able to do some damage of their own against the less than formidable Pitt defense, but the Panthers are an enticing choice with this spread sitting at less than a field goal. You may think Pitt has been a bad favorite under Narduzzi, and you would be partially right. The Panthers have struggled ATS as a home favorite, posting a 10-16 ATS mark. However, when the betting market trusts them to lay points on the road, they have been rock solid. As a road favorite, they are 12-4 ATS. Meanwhile, you may be shocked to know that this is the first time North Carolina has been a home underdog since the 2020 season. The Tar Heels don't have a lot of experience in this role, and this feels like it could be the beginning of the end of the second Mack Brown era. Take the Panthers to move to 5-0.
Massachusetts +17 Northern Illinois
These once and future conference foes meet for the first time in more than a decade. Their previous two meetings came at a different time for Northern Illinois football. Back then, Northern Illinois was running roughshod through the MAC with Jordan Lynch and Tommylee Lewis helping the Huskies average nearly 40 points per game in 2012 and 2013. In those two seasons, Northern Illinois beat the Minutemen 63-0 and 63-19 respectively. This iteration of the Huskies is a contender in the MAC, but they play much slower and rely on a ball control offense. The Huskies scored 54 points against Western Illinois of the FCS in their opener, but have averaged under eighteen points per game against FBS competition. Granted, two of those were power conference teams (Notre Dame and NC State), and the Huskies even famously won one of those games, but they also scored just twenty points against Buffalo. Its hard to cover a three score spread, when you are unlikely to score in the mid-twenties. Northern Illinois is just 2-11 ATS as a home favorite under Thomas Hammock and 1-3 ATS as a double digit home favorite. They are a great team to back in the underdog role, but you don't want any part of laying points with them. Take the Minutemen to keep this one close.
UAB +15 Tulane
Both of these teams were involved in blowouts last week. Tulane dominated South Florida as a slight home favorite and UAB could not stop the nouveau Navy option attack as a small home underdog. Had those results taken place during in the first game of the season, I could understand the reason for this large a spread. However, those games represented the fifth and fourth data points for Tulane and UAB respectively. That makes it very hard to comprehend why Tulane is such as large road favorite. Consider this. Two weeks ago, Tulane was a slight favorite at Louisiana-Lafayette (two points). Now they are laying more than two touchdowns on the road. Would the Ragin' Cajuns be installed as a thirteen point favorite against UAB on a neutral site? I doubt it. That tells me this spread is a bit too high. This pick is not in any way an endorsement of Trent Dilfer at UAB. He has been objectively awful, posting a 5-11 overall record (3-11 against FBS competition) at a school that was competing for and winning conference titles before his arrival. But this spread is too high, and the team that blasted UAB last week (Navy) may end up having the best offense in the AAC. Take the Blazers to cover this ridiculously high number.
Appalachian State +3 Marshall
I always like to back a team that is coming off an embarrassing loss. And that is exactly what happened to the Mountaineers in their most recent outing. They were blasted a home by South Alabama on a showcase game on Thursday night. They were supposed to play Liberty last week, but Hurricane Helene forced that game to be canceled. I don't like to play psychologist very often, but one would think Appalachian State is motivated to play here, if not for their community, then as a diversion from what is sure to be a very difficult situation. The Mountaineers travel to Huntington to take on a Marshall team that has been an awful home favorite under Charles (not to be confused with Charlie) Huff. Since Huff arrived in Huntington, the Herd are just 4-8 ATS as a home favorite, five outright losses. Marshall barely survived at home against a mid-level MAC school last week. Take the Mountaineers to win their conference road opener.
South Alabama -3.5 Arkansas State
South Alabama moved up to FBS in 2012 and and the Jaguars have played Arkansas State each season since. The Red Wolves dominated this series in the early going, winning the first five by over fourteen points per game. However, South Alabama has gone on a tear since, winning six of the past seven, including the past two in Jonesboro. South Alabama got off to a rough start, losing their first two games to North Texas and Ohio, but they are actually 1-0 in Sun Belt play and if they can beat the Red Wolves, will be 2-0 in the conference with four of their final six league games coming at home. South Alabama should be able to move the ball with ease against the Red Wolves. Arkansas State has allowed 6.7 yards per play on the year, and that includes games with Central Arkansas (FCS) and Tulsa. Two power conference teams not known for their offensive prowess (Iowa State and Michigan) also rolled through this Arkansas State defense (80 points and 925 total yards). Arkansas State will be able to score some points of their own against the vulnerable South Alabama defense, but in a game that should see a lot of possessions and a lot of points, I feel comfortable laying less than a touchdown.
Washington -2.5 Michigan
Astute college football fans are probably asking why an unranked Washington team is favored against a top ten opponent. This is a legitimate question, but perhaps the better question is why is Michigan ranked in the top ten? The Wolverines have been outgained in all three of their games against power conference opponents, their starting quarterback is averaging less than four yards per pass, and they have played all their games at home up to this point. The Wolverines could easily be 2-3, while Washington could easily be 5-0 instead of 3-2. The Huskies have outgained all five of their opponents on the year and with four ranked teams left on the schedule after the Wolverines, as well as a dangerous trip to Iowa City, need to bank all the wins they can to ensure a third consecutive bowl trip. With their strong defense and power running game, Michigan can certainly win this game. However, the result of this game is heavily dependent on game script. If Michigan falls behind by ten or fourteen points early, there is almost no path for them to stage a comeback. Having not ventured outside the friendly confines of Ann Arbor yet, I think this is a game that can get away from them quickly. If this game is close in the fourth quarter, Michigan probably wins, but I think the more likely result is an avalanche of adversity on the road in Seattle.
Duke +9.5 Georgia Tech
The Blue Devils are not getting any respect from the college football media despite their undefeated start. Duke is 5-0, and they, along with Liberty are the only unbeaten teams to not receive any votes in the most recent AP Poll. Great things were not expected of Duke in the preseason, but the Blue Devils have quietly put together a solid resume under first year head coach Manny Diaz. Duke has beaten two power conference teams with a cardinal direction in their name (Northwestern and North Carolina) along with a Connecticut team that may find it way to bowl eligibility. Their defense has been quite good, allowing under 300 yards per game and less than five yards per pass attempt. They also cause a lot of havoc, ranking second in the nation in tackles for loss (52). This trip to Atlanta represents their toughest test thus far, but if they are able to upset the Yellow Jackets, they could be 7-0 when SMU comes to Durham the last week of October. Georgia Tech is 3-2, but none of their victories have been particularly impressive. They beat a bad Florida State team in Ireland, with the Seminoles posting their best offensive numbers of the year. Their other two wins have come against Georgia State and VMI at home. As it was last season, the defense is the weak link of this team. In their last two games against power conference foes, Syracuse and Louisville have accumulated 840 total yards whole averaging 6.77 yards per play. Duke is not built for those kind of offensive numbers, but the Blue Devils should encounter little resistance moving the ball. The market has not caught on to how good (relatively) Duke is yet. And this is a role Manny Diaz has excelled in. Including his time at Miami, teams coached by Diaz are 7-1 ATS as a road underdog, with six outright wins. Similarly, this is a role where Brent Key's teams have struggled. The Yellow Jackets are 2-4 ATS as a home favorite under Key, with four outright losses. Take the Blue Devils to continue their winning ways.
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