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Overall: 22-20
Kent State +6.5 Ball State
Their are three winless teams in college football: FBS neophyte Kennesaw State, new Mountain West member UTEP, and the Golden Flashes of Kent State. Kent State is 0-5 this season, and they have yet to beat an FBS team under second year head coach Ken Burns (not that Ken Burns). Despite those documented facts, I think the Golden Flashes are primed to get their first win of the season. Read on to find out why. For starters, Ball State is pretty bad in their own right. Their defense is in the running for the worst in college football. In their four games against FBS opponents, the Cardinals have allowed 207 total points. The Miami Hurricanes dropped 62 points on them, but more damning is the fact that the three Group of Five opponents they have faced, including two mid-level MAC teams (Central Michigan and Western Michigan) have averaged over 48 points per game, 498 yards per game, and over eight yards per play. That is not the type of defense you want to lay points on the road with, even against Kent State. And the Golden Flashes may have found something on offense. They scored 33 points in their most recent game (though they allowed 52) against Eastern Michigan. It was their second best point and yardage total under Burns. Off a bye, they should be able to move the ball and score points against a porous Ball State defense. Can they get enough stops of their own to clinch their first win? I think so. Ball State has only been a road favorite six times in eight seasons under head coach Mike Neu. They are 2-4 ATS in those games and are just 12-19 overall in MAC road games under Neu. Take the Golden Flashes and the points as they nab their first win since the end of the 2022 season.
North Carolina +5 Georgia Tech
North Carolina is reeling, having lost three in a row, but I think this might be the spot to buy the proverbial dip (Skoal preferably). Speaking of threes, Georgia Tech has also won three straight in this series. The spread on this game indicates the betting market believes four in a row is likely, but this is a tremendous role reversal for these two teams. In each of the past three games, North Carolina entered both ranked and as a double digit favorite. I know North Carolina no longer has a future NFL quarterback taking snaps, but this spread may have gone too far in the other direction. This is also just the second time under Brent Key, and just the fourth time since Paul Johnson left, that Georgia Tech has been a favorite on the road. They are 0-3 ATS and 1-2 straight up in the three previous times they have been laying points away from Atlanta. Plus, just last week, Pitt was only laying two and a half to three points against the Tar Heels in Chapel Hill. Is Georgia Tech better than Pitt? All those factors add up to a Tar Heel selection. Maybe Mack Brown crashes into retirement on a nine-game losing streak, but I think North Carolina has enough fight to win a few more games before the curtain closes, starting with this one against the Yellow Jackets.
Buffalo +9.5 Toledo
With their victory against Miami last week, Toledo has now won nine straight regular season MAC games and are in good position to qualify for a third consecutive MAC Championship Game. However, I think the Rockets are a good fade candidate this week for several reasons. For starters, they are probably not as good as their 4-1 record would indicate. They are getting a lot of mileage out of their road blowout of a bad Mississippi State team. The Miami team they beat last week may also end up not being very good, and they lost their lone road game against a quality opponent (Western Kentucky). In addition, they may be overlooking the Bulls. Their next two games are against Northern Illinois and Bowling Green, two teams thought to also be contenders in the MAC. Finally, Buffalo is off a bye after being embarrassed by the Connecticut Huskies two weeks ago. The last thing the market saw was Buffalo losing by six touchdowns to Connecticut. But no team is ever really as bad as they look one week or as good as they look the next. The Bulls have a quality head coach with significant MAC experience and should be fresh and revitalized off their bye. Since joining the MAC, the Bulls are 3-1 straight up against Toledo at home and 4-0 ATS. Take the Bulls to keep this one close and potentially shake up the MAC race.
South Florida +7 Memphis
This game was originally scheduled to be played on Friday night, but with the impending arrival of Hurricane Milton, has been moved to Saturday afternoon. If it is played, I think South Florida has a great shot at breaking out of their mini-skid. The Bulls have dropped two in a row and three of four. However, two of those losses came to teams currently ranked in the top ten (Alabama and Miami) and another team that may be end up being the AAC champion (Tulane). Two of those games (Alabama and Tulane) were also on the road, so a home date with Memphis will represent a significant downgrade in difficulty. While South Florida has faced two elite and one good team, Memphis has dealt with a relatively easy schedule. The three FBS teams the Tigers have beaten (Florida State, Middle Tennessee State, and Troy) have a combined 1-14 record against FBS opponents. The one good team Memphis faced absolutely throttled them. Navy needed a late interception to seal the win against the Tigers, but the Midshipmen rolled up over 550 yards of offense and averaged ten yards per play. South Florida probably won't put up numbers quite that good, but they should move the ball with relative ease and scored in the thirties at minimum. Memphis has been awful as a road favorite under Ryan Silverfield, posting a 4-8 ATS record. Navy exposed the Tigers defensive deficiencies and I expect South Florida to follow suit and win the game outright.
Georgia State -1.5 Old Dominion
These two teams were picked to finish at the bottom of the Sun Belt East division in the preseason, and outside of a shocking victory by Georgia State against Vanderbilt, have not done much to dissuade your humble narrator from thinking that is where they end up when the season is complete. Old Dominion put up a decent fight in their conference opener against Coastal Carolina last week, but they allowed 45 points and nearly eight yards per play to the Chanticleers. Since opening the year with a solid showing in Columbia against South Carolina, the Monarchs have allowed over 460 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play to their other four opponents. That is not a recipe for winning road conference games, particularly against a team with a competent passing offense. Christian Veilleux, a Pitt transfer, has thrown every pass for the Panthers this season and has posted solid numbers despite facing two power conference opponents. Meanwhile, the Monarchs may be without their starting quarterback. Grant Wilson was injured in their victory against Bowling Green two weeks ago. Backup Colton Joseph came on and led Old Dominion to an upset win with some big runs, but his performance was more uneven last week against Coastal Carolina. With another week of tape, and coming off a bye, I expect Georgia State to be prepared for his athleticism. Georgia State is the better team, is playing at home, and is off a bye. Take them to cover this small number.
Vanderbilt +13.5 Kentucky
The Commodores have been in the news lately. They scored one of the biggest upsets of the season and in their history last week when they knocked off number one Alabama. With that win, I expected this number to be closer to a touchdown or perhaps even less. When I saw it was double digits I was shocked. Obviously, Vanderbilt needed some luck to knock off Alabama. They got it in the form of a pick six and a sack fumble that stopped an Alabama drive. Without those two plays, Vanderbilt probably loses. However, this was not an extremely fluky game that you can just wave off. The Commodores never trailed and actually outgained Alabama (thanks to running thirty more plays). They dominated the clock and converted short third and fourth downs like a triple option team which is spiritually, what the Commodores are this season. And when triple option teams have a dynamic quarterback, like Diego Pavia, they are capable of winning (and covering) as big underdogs. If the Commodores can shake off the massive media attention they generated after their victory against the Crimson Tide, they have a great shot at covering another big number. Kentucky is probably more talented than Vanderbilt, but this is not a team that should be laying double digits against a quality conference opponent. In their three games against SEC teams this season, the Wildcats have scored six, twelve, and twenty points. They will probably need to get to at least thirty to cover this number, and even then, that might not be enough. Vanderbilt is not the only team in this game that will be looking to play at a slow pace. Kentucky games actually see fewer possessions (ten per team) than Vanderbilt games (eleven per team). If there are fewer than twelve possessions apiece in this game, it will be very difficult for Kentucky to score enough to cover this number. Kentucky has also not done well as a large favorite under Mark Stoops. As a double digit home favorite, they are 10-13 ATS, but just 1-4 ATS against power conference opponents. And while they have dominated the series against Vanderbilt since Stoops arrived in 2013, winning eight of the eleven games, they have done poorly ATS, covering just four times. They have been double digit home favorites against Vanderbilt four times under Stoops. They have failed to cover each time and lost one of the games outright. Kentucky is coming off a bye and a top ten win of their own, but this Wildcat team is built to grind out conference games, not overwhelm opponents with their offensive prowess. Take Vanderbilt and the points and don't be shocked if they pull off their third outright upset as a double digit underdog.
West Virginia +3 Iowa State
We knew before the season started that the Big 12 race would be one of the more unpredictable and fun ones in college football. And thus far, it has lived up to the hype. There are five teams currently unbeaten in Big 12 play and two of them are involved in this contest in Morgantown (BYU, Colorado, and Texas Tech are the other three). West Virginia dropped two games in the non-con (Penn State and Pitt), but they are still alive for a college football playoff bid under the new system. Meanwhile, Iowa State is 5-0 and does not face a team currently ranked in the AP Poll until late November. If they can avoid slipping up on this road trip, they could be 10-0 when they travel to Salt Lake City on November 23. But lets not get ahead of ourselves. Can the Cyclones escape their trip east? Unfortunately, for the Cyclones, the Mountaineers may be uniquely designed to pull off the upset. As they have done for the duration of the Matt Campbell era, Iowa State plays very good defense. However, their run defense has been a bit suspect. Iowa gained over 200 yards rushing and averaged over five yards per carry and Houston also averaged over five yards per rush against the Cyclones. West Virginia averages over five yards per carry on the season and mobile quarterback Garrett Greene has nearly 300 yards rushing thus far. Since joining the Big 12, West Virginia has beaten Iowa State two of three times in Morgantown. I think it will be three of four after Saturday night.
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