.jpg)
Overall: 34-29
UTSA +7 Memphis
As someone currently holding a Memphis under 9.5 regular season wins ticket, I can tell you the Tigers are going to wind up being one of the worst ten win teams I have ever seen. And God forbid they beat Tulane in their regular season finale and we are forced to consider them as a potential entrant in the expanded College Football Playoff. What has impressed you most about the Tigers this season? Was it beating the worst Florida State team in a generation by eight? Scoring 21 points against South Florida and their backup quarterback? Their track meet victory against North Texas? Their comeback win at home against Charlotte? When the smoke clears, the Tigers will wind up having beaten exactly one team (South Florida maybe) that participates in a bowl game. They will have done this despite playing in the strongest Group of Five conference and facing two defending conference champions (Florida State and Troy) in the non-con. Ryan Silverfield must have made a Gerry Faustian bargain to save his job. While the Tigers will probably escape San Antonio with a win, a cover is another story. Under Silverfield, the Tigers have torched money as a favorite. As a home favorite, they are 4-14-1 ATS. They are slightly better as a road favorite, going 5-8 ATS. Despite their ATS struggles, the Tigers don't actually lose these games though. As a home favorite, they are 16-3 straight up and as a road favorite, they are 9-4 straight up. I expect more of the same here in a place where UTSA is rarely an underdog. The Roadrunners have been underdogs just five other times since Jeff Traylor arrived in 2020. They are 4-1 ATS in those games, and have not been a home underdog since the 2022 season opener. UTSA just coughed up a game against Tulsa where they lead by 28 points at halftime, but I expect a strong effort as they return to the Alamodome for a three-game home stand. UTSA also does a great job of shutting down the run, permitting under three yards per carry on the season. They should force Memphis into multiple third and longs and make quarterback Seth Henigan beat them with his arm. Roc Taylor will probably make an incredible play at a crucial moment and the Tigers will escape, but they won't cover this number.
Tulsa +3 UAB
I don't think this game will be must see TV for folks who are not alumni of either school. The Golden Hurricane and Blazers are both led by second year head coaches (Kevin Wilson and Trent Dilfer respectively) who are a combined 12-27 at their posts. Tulsa has at least beaten some FBS teams this season. UAB is on a seven game skid against teams from the highest division of college football since beating Temple in last season's penultimate game. Both teams will most likely be led by backup quarterbacks in this game. UAB quarterback Jacob Zeno has been injured off and on for much of the season forcing the Blazers to turn to likely pedophile Jalen Kitna. Kitna and Zeno have been equally bad. Meanwhile, Tulsa will likely start Cooper Legas after he led a spirited comeback against UTSA last week. Legas has tossed nearly as many touchdown passes (6) in 48 pass attempts as former starter Kirk Francis has in 212 (7). Legas is an experienced quarterback who was competent at Utah State, so it is unclear why it took a massive halftime deficit before he was given an opportunity to play. Anyway, I think Legas starts, and while Tulsa has not been good this season, UAB is a dead team walking. Trent Dilfer will be fired at the end of the season, if not before, and the Blazers will hope everyone forgets this idiotic hire. I guess the oddsmakers had to make one team the favorite in this game, but it should not be the full three. Take the Golden Hurricane in this spot as they shovel some dirt on Dilfer.
North Carolina -2.5 Florida State
This bet gives me a little trepidation as Mack Brown does not have a great history leading teams from Chapel Hill down to Tallahassee. In a different era, Brown took quality Tar Heel teams down to face the class of the ACC in 1992, 1994, and 1996 and left with double digit losses each time. In his second tenure, he took a top five North Carolina team to Tallahassee to face a rebuilding Florida State in the Covid season laying double digits and also left with a defeat. Collectively, the Tar Heels have been terrible as road favorites since Brown returned in 2019, posting a 4-12-1 ATS record. So why am I trying to catch the falling knife with the Tar Heels this week? Have you seen Florida State this season? Their offense is among the worst at the power conference level. The Seminoles have scored 21, 13, 12, 14, 16, 13, 16, and 14 points in their eight games this season. They have not busted a Blackjack hand the entire year! And what do they have to play for at 1-7 coming off a loss to their in-state rival? North Carolina on the other hand, seemed rejuvenated after their bye, dominating Virginia and accumulating an absurd ten sacks! This bet will probably blow up in my face, but with the number less than three, the Tar Heels are the play.
Washington +2.5 Southern Cal
When he left Oklahoma at the end of the 2021 regular season, Lincoln Riley caused both the Sooners and Trojans to experience mutual assured destruction. Both teams have had one good year since (2022 for the Trojans and 2023 for the Sooners), but the other two have been mediocre for both by historical standards. Oklahoma finished 6-6 in the 2022 regular season and are on pace to finish with a similar record this year. At 4-4, they have a game remaining with Maine, but close the year against three teams currently ranked in the AP Poll (Alabama, Missouri, and LSU). Southern Cal finished 7-5 in the regular season last year (after a 6-0 start) and at 4-4, they appear headed for another 6-6 or 7-5 finish. And to sniff 7-5, the Trojans have to win this game. Despite playing in the same conference, this is just the fifth meeting between these two teams in the past ten years. For what its worth, Washington has won three of the previous four, sweeping both games in Los Angeles (2015 and 2023) and splitting the games in Seattle (2016 and 2019). The Huskies are also 4-4, but have a much better statistical profile than the Trojans. Washington has outgained Big 10 foes by nearly a yard and a half per play (6.02 to 4.55) compared to less than half a yard per play for Southern Cal (6.16 to 5.78). But the Huskies have not done the little things. They have struggled in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on less than half (10 of 22) their red zone possessions. They have also struggled kicking field goals, converting on just over 60% of their attempts (11 of 18). The Huskies are probably paying the football gods back for their fantastic good fortune last season (perfect 8-0 in one possession games) on their way to the national championship game. Despite their struggles this season, I think this is a good spot for Washington. The Huskies have won 18 consecutive home games (last loss was the regular season finale in 2021) and Southern Cal has been horrendous as a road favorite under Lincoln Riley. The Trojans are just 2-9 ATS with five outright losses and have failed to cover the past five times they have been road favorites. Dating back to his time at Oklahoma, Riley's teams are 8-20-1 ATS as road favorites. Back the Huskies at home as they also need this game to have any shot at the postseason with road trips to Penn State and Oregon remaining on the schedule.
Texas A&M -2 South Carolina
When you make picks against the spread, you have to be prepared to look foolish and I am ready to do this just that. If I told you an SEC team was unbeaten in conference play in November and was laying less than a field goal on the road against a solid team, but one with limited offensive capabilities, you would probably want to back them, right? If I also told you that same team had dominated this series, wouldn't that make you want to play them even more? Since joining the SEC, Texas A&M is 9-1 against South Carolina. They are just 5-5 ATS, but that is partially because they have been favored by at least a touchdown in seven of those ten games. The Aggies lost their most recent trip to Columbia in 2022, but this version is better coached and in contention for an SEC title. Plus, while South Carolina is off a bye, Texas A&M is staring a bye in the face after this game. They can give maximum effort and attempt to improve to 6-0 in the SEC before enjoying a bye and a home game with New Mexico State before SEC play resumes in late November. South Carolina has been mediocre as a home underdog under Shane Beamer, posting a 5-5 ATS mark (1-1 this season). The Gamecocks may also be overvalued by the betting market after their last game. The Gamecocks scored two defensive touchdowns early in Norman and were never in danger against the offensively challenged Sooners. South Carolina has one of the better defenses in the SEC (third in yards allowed per play in conference games), but their offense is also one of the worst. The Gamecocks ripped off several big plays against LSU (6.52 yards per play), but in their other four SEC games, they have combined to average just 4.50 yards per play. The market has not reacted to Texas A&M like they are an unbeaten (in conference) SEC team. If they were laying a touchdown, South Carolina would be the play. But with this spread under a field goal, you have to back the Aggies.
Pittsburgh +7.5 SMU
Turnovers were the stories for the Panthers and the Mustangs in their most recent games. Pitt forced five Syracuse turnovers, returning three interceptions for touchdowns in an easy win on Thursday night. Meanwhile, SMU turned the ball over six times against Duke, but escaped thanks to a blocked field goal at the end of regulation and a failed two points conversion by the Blue Devils. The victories set up a pretty big game in the ACC. The Panthers and Mustangs are both 4-0 in the ACC and ranked in the top twenty of the latest AP Poll. Pitt is unbeaten overall and control their destiny in regards to the ACC Championship Game and College Football Playoff. SMU has one loss (to BYU), but despite their unbeaten conference record do not control their destiny in regards to the ACC Championship Game. There is still an outside possibility that Clemson, Miami, and SMU all finish with identical 8-0 league records (Pitt faces Clemson in two weeks, so that possibility does not exist for them). I'm not sure how the ACC would break that three-way tie. Call me a conspiracy theorist, but for some reason I feel like SMU would be the odd team out in that situation. As I mentioned, that is a remote possibility, but deserves to be mentioned as we enter the final month of the regular season. As for this game, these two teams seem like they are pretty evenly matched. Both offenses have been fantastic overall and SMU has been especially good on that side of the ball since their bye week. After struggling in early season games against Nevada and BYU (44 total points), the Mustangs have averaged 42 points per game over their last five. Pitt has averaged nearly 36 points per game against FBS opponents, and were only really stymied by Cal. The Panthers have played the more difficult schedule with five of their seven games coming against likely or potential bowl teams. SMU has played the strongest opponent (BYU), but they have also beaten up on Houston Baptist, Florida State, Nevada, and Stanford. That schedule strength makes me believe Pitt is a little better than their raw stats while SMU is a bit worse. In addition, Pitt has been great as a road underdog under Narduzzi. They are 17-13 ATS in the role, and that includes an 0-4 ATS mark for last season's team (the worst Pitt team since either Johnny Majors 2.0 or Walt Harris was on the sideline). Finally, while SMU is 6-4 ATS as a home favorite under Rhett Lashlee, those six covers have come against Florida State (this season), Louisiana Tech, Navy twice, North Texas, and Tulsa. I expect a tight game, so back the team catching a full touchdown.
TCU +3 Baylor
The latest edition of The Revivalry kicks off Saturday night in Waco. TCU has dominated the series recently, winning 12 of the 16 contests this century. The Horned Frogs have dominated in both Fort Worth and Waco, posting identical 6-2 records in each venue. In the four games TCU lost, the margin has been two points, three points, three points, and six points (in overtime). Those four losses also came to very good Baylor teams. The 2011, 2013, and 2019 teams finished 13th in the final AP Poll and the 2014 team finished 7th. You'll notice the current incarnation of Baylor is 4-4 and unlikely to enjoy any national significance in 2024. However, they may do (or have already done) enough to save Dave Aranda's job. Aranda guided the Bears to a Big 12 title in 2021, but in his other four seasons in charge, Baylor is just 15-27 overall and 10-22 in Big 12 play. The Bears are also just 9-11 at home in Big 12 play under Aranda (4-11 outside of 2021). TCU has the stronger statistical profile, has the better history in this series, and is likely due for some turnover regression (forced only four all season). The fact that the Horned Frogs are 5-3 despite a -11 turnover margin indicates they are probably a bit better than their record and undervalued by the betting market. Take the Frogs and the points.
No comments:
Post a Comment