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Overall: 25-24
Oklahoma State +9.5 BYU
Expectations could not have been more diverse for these two teams heading into 2024. Oklahoma State was expected to contend for the Big 12 title (consensus second according to Stassen), while BYU was expected to finish near the basement of the league standings (third from the bottom). A month ago, BYU was a pleasant surprise, with a perfect 3-0 mark in the non-con. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State was also 3-0, with a home escape against Arkansas, and two dominant wins against overmatched foes. Had this game been played then, Oklahoma State probably would have been a slight favorite in Provo. But now the market has swung a bit too far. The Cougars are unbeaten, overall and in Big 12 play, but their record is buoyed by a good turnover margin (+7) and four non-offensive touchdowns. The Cougars have played four games against power conference opponents (Arizona, Baylor, Kansas State, and SMU). In two of those games, the Cougars have a +6 turnover margin (Arizona and Kansas State), winning those games by a combined 51 points. In their other two games, their turnover margin is even and they have won by a combined nine points. If the Cougars end up three turnovers in the black against Oklahoma State, they will win and cover, but turnover margin is highly variable and subject to the whims of the universe. At the other end of the spectrum, Oklahoma State has lost three in a row, something that has happened just two other times in the regular season under Mike Gundy (2005 and 2014). I expect the Cowboys to play their best game of the season with their backs against the wall. BYU does not profile as a great team to lay a big number with. Since Zach Wilson matriculated after the 2020 season, BYU is just 3-6 ATS as a home favorite. They may not be able to keep it up over the rest of the season, but Oklahoma State will rise up and put a scare into the unbeaten Cougars on Friday night.
Wisconsin -7 Northwestern
The Badgers may have figured things out in Luke Fickell's second season. After a disappointing 7-5 regular season campaign in 2023 replete with four losses as a betting favorite (including one at home to Northwestern), Wisconsin dropped their first two games against power conference opponents in 2024. They fell at home to Alabama by 32 and then lost to Southern Cal by 17. In the loss to Alabama, quarterback Tyler Van Dyke went down with an injury. His replacement, Braedyn Locke started slow, completing just half his passes against the Crimson Tide and Trojans. However, in the past two games, he has completed nearly 68% of his passes while averaging over ten yards per throw. He has made more mistakes than you would like (tossing three interceptions), but the Badgers have scored 94 points in the two games. One of them came against Purdue, but last week, the Boilermakers showed they had not quit on the season. The other came against a decent defense in Rutgers. Northwestern is pretty much Rutgers with higher academic standards. The Wildcats don't play offense particularly well, but if you commit a ton of turnovers (like Maryland did last week), the Wildcats will parlay those into an ugly blowout win. I don't think the market has properly priced the improvement at the quarterback position for Wisconsin and Northwestern's victory against Maryland was extremely misleading. The Badgers might be pretty good and with home games remaining against Penn State and Oregon, have a chance to shake up not just the Big 10, but also the college football playoff race.
Auburn +4.5 Missouri
How can it be that a team ranked in the top twenty is only slightly more than a field goal favorite against a team that enters with an 0-4 record against power conference opponents? Let's dive inside the numbers. Missouri has faced three power conference opponents (Boston College, Texas A&M, and Vanderbilt), posted a 2-1 record, been outscored by 22 points, and outgained on a per play basis by more than a yard (5.38 to 6.63). Meanwhile, Auburn as previously mentioned, is 0-4 against power conference opponents, has been outscored by 41 points, but has outgained their foes by more than a yard on a per play basis (6.12 to 5.03). The difference is close games performance and turnovers. Missouri is 2-0 in close games, beating Boston College by six and Vanderbilt by three in overtime. They have a good, but not great turnover margin of +2 in those three games. Auburn, on the other hand, is 0-2 in close games, losing to Cal by seven and Oklahoma by six. They also have a terrible turnover margin of -9 in those four games. If you merely looked at those per play numbers and ignored the record, I'd argue Auburn should be favored in this spot. Missouri has dominated the three weak opponents on their schedule, pounding Murray State, Buffalo, and Massachusetts by a combined score of 134-3 and outgaining them by nearly three and a half yards per play. Rolling up big margins against outmanned opponents can tell us something about a team. However, the Tigers have shown in their three games against legitimate competition they are not a darkhorse contender in the SEC as some may have imagined in the preseason. Auburn is off a bye and needs this game to have any hopes of participating in the postseason. Take the Tigers with deeper SEC roots to win this game.
East Carolina +15.5 Army
The Black Knights of the Hudson are ranked for just the fifth time in a season since the early 1960s. Their previous regular season forays as a ranked team did not go so well, as they lost three of five, with both victories coming against Navy in their annual rivalry clash. The Black Knights are looking to win their seventh game overall (sixth in league play) and inch ever closer to a spot in the AAC Championship Game. Army has dominated their first six opponents, winning by an average of nearly thirty points per game. However, their schedule has been among the easiest in college football. The five FBS teams they have beaten (Florida Atlantic, Rice, Temple, Tulsa, and UAB) have combined for a 4-22 record against FBS opponents. East Carolina, with two FBS wins, represents at least a minor step up in class. In addition, the Pirates were embarrassed by Charlotte the last time they took the field, allowing the 49ers to drop the dreaded double nickel on them. Coming off a bye, I expect a strong effort from East Carolina. The Pirates also have a strong track record as a road underdog under head coach Mike Houston, posting a 14-8 ATS record in the role, including 8-2 ATS as a double digit road underdog. Plus, service academies, even ones as dominant as Army, are typically a bad play when laying more than two touchdowns. This is the peak of the market for Army and the nadir for East Carolina. Back the Pirates and see if they can put a scare into one of the few remaining unbeaten college football teams.
Charlotte +17 Navy
Speaking of service academies laying double digits...
Navy has taken nicely to the Wing T offense utilized by new offensive coordinator Drew Cronic. The Midshipmen have already scored more points through five games (218) than they did in twelve last season (212). I love the fact that Army and Navy are unbeaten, but its hard to keep this superb level of performance up all season. Charlotte also catches Navy in a nice sandwich spot. The Midshipmen were off last week, but they beat rival Air Force in their last game, and get a shot at a big scalp next week when they face Notre Dame in MetLife Stadium. Charlotte is also off a bye and has won two in a row after a woeful start to the season. The 49ers may have also found their quarterback of the future. Deshawn Purdie replaced an ineffective Trexler Ivey in the second half of their game against Rice, led a comeback win, and played well in their dismantling of East Carolina the next week. Charlotte has already matched their win total from last season and have an outside shot at getting to just the second bowl game in school history. The 49ers have also been great as road underdogs under head coach Biff Poggi, posting a 7-2 ATS record in the role, including 4-1 ATS as a double digit road underdog. Navy has too much firepower to call for an outright upset, but I like the 49ers catching a big number.
Georgia +5 Texas
As far as SEC schedules go, the Texas Longhorns could not have crafted an easier one thus far in 2024. Their non-conference slate consisted of Colorado State, Louisiana-Monroe, and UTSA. While the Rams and Warhawks may eventually qualify for bowl games, neither is in the same stratosphere as Texas in regards to talent and while UTSA has a strong recent history at the mid-major level, they are nowhere near where they have been over the previous half-decade. Their other non-conference game was on the road against the defending national champs, but Michigan is unable to throw the football. Their two SEC games have come against the worst team in the league (Mississippi State) and a team missing roughly all their wide receivers (Oklahoma). The Longhorns have dominated against that schedule, but Georgia (even what appears to be a diminished Bulldog squad) represents a significant step up in competition. The Bulldogs have not played great in their four league games. They barely survived a road trip to Kentucky, fell way behind Alabama before staging a comeback and eventually losing a tenuous lead, cruised past Auburn, but didn't dominate the Tigers, and looked disinterested in a home win against Mississippi State. This is not the 2021, 2022, or 2023 Georgia squad, but they are still one of the best teams in the SEC and have shown they are capable of a complete performance (remember the opener against Clemson) and should be plenty desperate in this spot. If the Bulldogs lose, they will have two conference losses, with a road trip to Ole Miss, a home date with Tennessee, and the always dangerous Cocktail Party with Florida still on the schedule. They won't be eliminated from conference title contention, but their margin for error will be. And if you will allow me a brief digression. If the Bulldogs lose here and lose to say Ole Miss in a few weeks, they will be an interesting case study for the expanded college football playoff. They won't have any great wins (Tennessee would probably be their best scalp), but will have three quality losses on the road. I think they probably get in with that resume. Anyway, I think we see the best Georgia performance since their victory against Clemson. Texas should be favored at home, but not by more than a field goal.
North Texas +12 Memphis
Halfway through the 2024 season, the Memphis offense may not be as formidable as we expected in the preseason. The Tigers scored twenty points against Florida State, 24 against a putrid Middle Tennessee defense, and 21 last week against South Florida. I expect them to eclipse that thirty against a bad Mean Green defense, but the Tigers will probably need to score in the forties or higher to cover this number. North Texas needed a stirring comeback to beat Florida Atlantic last week, but the Mean Green have moved the ball against every non-power opponent they have faced. In their four games against fellow mid-major football programs (Florida Atlantic, South Alabama, Tulsa, and Wyoming), North Texas has averaged over 47 points per game. The Memphis defense has played well against the bad or hurt offenses they have faced. Troy, Florida State, Middle Tennessee, and South Florida combined to score 39 total points against the Tigers, but the one competent and healthy offense on the schedule (Navy) ripped them to shreds, averaging over ten yards per play and scoring 56 points. The North Texas defense is too much of a liability for them to win the game, but this should be a back and forth affair and even a two touchdown lead late in the game will not be safe for Memphis. The backdoor should be wide open and I expect North Texas to waltz through it.
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