.jpg)
Overall: 30-26
Boise State -3 UNLV
This could be the first of two between these Mountain West favorites. Despite each team entering with a loss, both have a good shot at reaching the College Football Playoff by winning here and then winning out. Boise State has dominated this series since joining the Mountain West. The Broncos are 6-0 straight up against the Rebels, with each victory coming by at least 17 points. Most of those wins came before UNLV hired Barry Odom and righted the ship, but even last year, the best Rebels team in a generation (or two) lost by 24 points at home (in the conference title game no less). UNLV is probably slightly better than they were last season, but this is a terrible spot for them. They have played three challenging games in a row, losing a heartbreaker at home to Syracuse, traveling to Utah State to play at elevation, and then traveling to Oregon State and winning a tight game. Meanwhile Boise State is off a bye and has had ample time to prepare for the UNLV Go Go Offense. I don't expect the Broncos to completely shut down the UNLV attack, but they do lead the nation in sacks and are third in tackles for loss. They should generate enough negative plays to prevent UNLV from marching up and down the field. And when the Broncos have the ball, the Rebels should have their hands full with Ashton Jeanty. The Boise State running back has nearly equaled last season's rushing total in just six games! He is averaging over 200 yards per game on the ground and nearly ten yards per carry! Take the Broncos laying just a field goal against a team they are used to dominating.
Washington +6.5 Indiana
College GameDay is headed to Bloomington for the first time (on a Saturday) this week. The Hoosiers opened the 2017 season hosting Ohio State and got the weekday version of GameDay, but this is the real deal. Indiana is 7-0 and ranked thirteenth in the most recent edition of the AP Poll. This is their highest ranking in a non-Covid season since they rose to number eleven in 1987. Unfortunately, the Hoosiers will be playing without their starting quarterback in this game (and perhaps more) as Kurtis Rourke was injured in their beatdown of Nebraska last week. Rourke's injury two seasons ago sidetracked a potential conference title run at Ohio, and we'll see if a similar result befalls the Hoosiers. While Indiana is 7-0, reigning national runner-up Washington is just 4-3, losing tight games to Washington State and Rutgers and getting blown out in their most recent outing against Iowa. The Huskies have a good pass defense and should be able to contain Indiana's backup quarterback, Tayven Jackson. In six games last season Jackson was not particularly impressive. He has posted great numbers in very limited action this season, but the offense should be significantly downgraded for Rourke's injury. This is the peak of the market for Indiana. If Rourke were playing, I could understand this line being what it is (or perhaps a bit more), but with Jackson getting the start, Washington off a bye, and Indiana facing pressure as a home favorite with College GameDay in town, you have to back the Huskies. Just hope they don't have to kick too many field goals.
Charlotte +18.5 Memphis
As I mentioned in the intro, I had a pretty good run last week except when I faded the service academies. While fading Navy, I simultaneously backed Charlotte and the 49ers were down 38 points roughly 20 minutes into the game. However, that big margin was almost entirely attributable to turnovers. The 49ers actually outgained Navy (363 to 288) and were pretty even with them on a per play basis (5.19 to 5.24), but five turnovers did them in. If the 49ers continue to be loose with the football, a Memphis cover will not be in doubt, but I expect a better showing. Maybe only four turnovers or perhaps three. In all seriousness though, turnovers are hard to handicap and one should probably go into games expecting a margin somewhere between plus or minus one when prospecting how a game will play out. While Charlotte was getting blasted by Navy, Memphis beat North Texas in a game where the two teams combined for nearly 100 points. It was good for the Tigers to get the win and stay in the AAC race, but it showed their defensive improvement in the previous two games (Middle Tennessee and South Florida) was a schedule induced mirage. Charlotte is not going to put up 44 points like North Texas did last week, but they should be able to score in the twenties. Memphis would then need to score in the high thirties to cover this number and I don't think they can. Plus, Memphis has been awful under Ryan Silverfield as a home favorite. The Tigers are just 4-13-1 ATS as a home favorite, including 3-9 ATS as a double digit home favorite. Charlotte is undervalued by the market after their poor showing last week and its only natural for Memphis to have a bit of a letdown after surviving North Texas.
Stanford +2.5 Wake Forest
The Stanford rebuild is not going as fast as I expected. When the Cardinal hired Troy Taylor to replace the retiring David Shaw, I thought Stanford would be competing for a bowl bid at minimum in his second season. Taylor, a real Larry Coker doppelganger, guided Sacramento State to a 30-8 record and three FCS playoff appearances in three seasons before heading to Palo Alto. But Stanford is just 5-14 overall midway through his second season. And the Cardinal have a nasty habit of getting their teeth kicked in. Six of their nine losses last season came by double digits and four of their five losses this season have come by at least 24 points. But I think (or hope) this is the bottom of the market for Stanford. The Cardinal have dropped four in a row in non-competitive fashion, but three of those teams are currently ranked in the AP Poll (Clemson, Notre Dame, and SMU) and the fourth has snapped out of their early season funk (Virginia Tech). Against the mediocre teams on their schedule (TCU and Syracuse), the Cardinal have acquitted themselves well. They lost by a touchdown to TCU at home and beat Syracuse on the road on a last second field goal. Describing Wake Forest as mediocre would be charitable. The Demon Deacons have won two road games against FBS opponents this season (by a combined seven points), but they have a terrible track record under Dave Clawson laying points away from Winston-Salem. Against power conference opponents, they are just 2-7 ATS as a road favorite with five outright losses. Stanford's offensive struggles of late (38 total points in their four game skid) have been due to a porous offensive line. The Cardinal have allowed 25 sacks on the season (only three teams have allowed more). However, Wake Forest has one of the worst pass rushes in the country, generating just eight sacks on the year (124th nationally). Stanford has faced a brutal schedule over the past month so their value is depressed and they are playing at home against a bad favorite traveling across the country. Take the Cardinal to get their second ever ACC victory.
Minnesota -4 Maryland
This seems like a pretty big hangover spot for Maryland. The Terps became the fourth Big 10 team this season to pull off a fourth quarter comeback and knock off Southern Cal last week. Maryland executed the controversial 'down by fourteen and go for two after scoring a touchdown' strategy (we need to shorten the name or come up with an acronym). The win moved Maryland to 4-3 on the season and kept their hopes for a fourth consecutive bowl game alive. Now they face a team that was in a similar position a few weeks ago. The Gophers became the second Big 10 team to pull off a fourth quarter comeback against Southern Cal and subsequently hit the road to face UCLA. The Gophers were shutout in the first half, but rallied to win in the final seconds. They are off a bye and return home hoping to also notch their fifth win of the season. Mike Locksley has had much better success at Maryland than I envisioned when he was hired, but he has struggled as a road underdog in Big 10 play. His teams are just 3-11 ATS as road underdogs in conference play and each of their covers has been as a double digit underdog. They have not covered tight road spreads in Big 10 play. In addition, while they are a respectable 8-15 straight up in Big 10 road games under Locksley, seven of those wins came with Taulia Tagovailoa at quarterback. Without Tua's brother, they are just 1-5 in Big 10 road games with the victory coming against Rutgers in 2019. Rutgers was quite bad that season. Maryland is getting a little too much credit for beating a Southern Cal team that has not won in the Eastern time zone since Reconstruction (or something like that). Take the Gophers to cover this small number.
Vanderbilt +19 Texas
I've said (or written) it several times on this blog. Vanderbilt is spiritually running the triple option. That is the perfect offense for a team that will be at a talent disadvantage in pretty much every conference game they play. And the tenants of betting for and against a triple option team have applied to Vanderbilt perfectly this season. Against FBS opponents, they are 4-0 ATS as an underdog (all as a double digit underdog), winning three of the games outright. And they are 0-2 ATS as a favorite. One of those games as a favorite was an outright loss at Georgia State. I didn't have the stones to back Ball State catching somewhere around 26 points against the Commodores last week because the Cardinals are so bad, but the cover was never in doubt. Vanderbilt was never in real danger of losing, but thanks to the running clock and limited possessions, they only won by ten points. Now they get Texas in the biggest home game in school history. Can they pull another massive upset as a home underdog and insert themselves into the SEC race? Winning the game outright will require a decent amount of luck (as did the victory against Alabama), but I expect Vanderbilt to be in this game for the duration. The Longhorns were the consensus number one team in the country last week after a masterful performance through their first six games. However, while that schedule was high on name recognition (Michigan and Oklahoma), it was light on heft. The Longhorns faced an elite team (or what qualifies as an elite team in 2024) and fell at home to Georgia. Of course, Vanderbilt is not in Georgia's class, but I will argue that Diego Pavia is the best quarterback Texas will have faced thus far in 2024. Pavia runs the Vanderbilt offense masterfully, mixing runs with timely passes to accumulate first downs and keep the clock running. His (and the other New Mexico State transplants) impact on the Vanderbilt program cannot be overstated. In Clark Lea's first three seasons, Vanderbilt was a double digit underdog 26 times. They were just 10-16 ATS with two outright wins. In 2024, the Commodores are a perfect 4-0 ATS as a double digit underdog, with three outright wins and a loss in overtime. Lets also not engage in a revisionist campaign on Steve Sarkisian's track record as a road favorite. His teams at Texas are just 6-5 ATS in the role (11-10 ATS if we include his time at Washington and Southern Cal) and 1-2 ATS as a double digit road favorite. Texas has not played a true road game since their trip to Ann Arbor in the second week of the season. I can't wait to see what the atmosphere is like in Nashville as Vanderbilt takes the field as a ranked team for the first time since 2008 (they finished ranked in 2012 and 2013, but never played a game as a ranked team). Until further notice always back Diego as a double digit underdog.
San Jose State +5 Fresno State
These two California schools have been conference mates for the majority of the past fifty five years. Both were in the Pacific Coast Athletic Association from 1969 through 1987 and stayed with the league when it changed its name to the Big West in 1988. From that point on, Fresno State tried to stay one step ahead of the Spartans. The Bulldogs joined the WAC in 1992, while San Jose State stuck in out until the Big West died, eventually joining the WAC in 1996. Fresno State departed the WAC after the 2011 season and joined the Mountain West with San Jose State joining one season later in 2012. Now the Bulldogs, along with a few other Mountain West teams, are joining the newly constituted Pac-12 (or 10 or 8). If history is any guide though, San Jose State will join them within the next five years. But what does all that history have to do with this game? Well, despite the presence of new head coaches at both programs, these two teams are quite familiar with each other. It almost feels like an NFL division game. In those NFL division games, if the teams are pretty evenly matched, which these two appear to be, the oddsmakers will typically make the home team a favorite by two and a half to three points. As you can see, this number is higher than that. Perhaps I'm using faulty logic, but if anything, I would argue San Jose State has been more impressive in 2024 and has the best player on the field in wide receiver Nick Nash. Nash has caught 72 passes through seven games and scored 11 touchdowns (both tops in the nation). Fresno State is living off the reputation they developed under Jeff Tedford and should not be laying this many points against a solid conference foe.
No comments:
Post a Comment